World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Portugal

Cristiano Ronaldo will be absolutely key for Portugal this summer

European football expert Andy Brassell, who will be staying with the Portuguese side throughout the tournament in Brazil, previews their chances this summer...

Road to Brazil

It was arduous, and certainly much tougher than it needed to be. The early loss to Russia was reversible - and indeed, Portugal won the return against Fabio Capello's men in Lisbon - but points frittered against Israel (twice) and home to Northern Ireland cost them dearly in the quest for automatic qualification. 

The dramatic two-legged play-off win over Sweden, underpinned by Cristiano Ronaldo's sensational hat-trick in Stockholm, was Portugal doing what they do. It was the third successive major tournament for which they've qualified through the play-offs. It also underlined - as it was necessary - just how vital Ronaldo is to their fate in Brazil, as he scored four goals over the two legs, following on from the hat-trick in Northern Ireland which overturned a 2-1 deficit.

The Manager

Paulo Bento is not a rabble-rouser like Luiz Felipe Scolari was, but his no-frills approach has its place. He is loyal to a fault, and doesn't do surprises, so the XI will stay the same throughout the tournament barring injury. This lends Portugal a real stability, although you could argue that out-of-form players are allowed to keep their places for too long.

Bento is no tactical showman either. This is his great strength. Players are used in exactly the same way as they are for their clubs, maximising their chances of re-producing their regular form and minimising the possibility of any crossed wires. So he's got the best out of Ronaldo by starting him on the left with licence to roam (rather than being played at centre-forward, as some have suggested), with clubmate Fabio Coentro behind him to link up.

Key men 

Ronaldo, obviously. The hat-trick in Sweden took him level with Pedro Pauleta on 47 goals as Portugal's all-time top scorer, a title that he made his own with a brace in March's friendly against Cameroon. His increased prolificacy under Bento has made the coach almost bulletproof, and he cuts a far happier figure than the one isolated by Carlos Queiroz's negative tactics in 2010. 

He needs support, though. Pepe should help to keep the back door firmly locked, and Sporting's excellent young midfielder William Carvalho will shield the defence well if he is chosen. Yet we need not necessarily look to club form to pick out the outstanding candidates to provide it. Joo Moutinho has had a difficult second half to his debut season at Monaco, but was vital at Euro 2012, bringing poise and precision to the midfield.

Talking Point

This group, perhaps overshadowed by the mouthwatering Group B match-up of Spain/Netherlands/Chile/Australia, is harder than many might consider. The opener against Germany is crucial. The same fixture opened Euro 2012 for the pair, and Portugal's reticence in a tight match eventually cost them in a narrow defeat.

Defeat would not be disaster but a point (at least) against Jogi Lw's side would really help their cause, given that the USA and Ghana both have their own, justifiable, ambitions to advance. A smoother advance to the knockout rounds than in 2012 would be easier on Portuguese hearts - and save something in the tank for the latter stages. 

Best Bet 

Having said what a hard group they face, one would still expect Portugal to advance, probably just behind Germany. If we assume that they will thus face Belgium in the last 16 - and that their superior experience and the presence of Ronaldo would give them the edge - we could end up with a titanic quarter-final against Argentina, in Brasilia. There, Alejandro Sabella's side might be considered favourites. So back Portugal to make the quarter-final at 2.829/5.

Value Bet 

Depending on the result in that opener against Germany, the game against USA could be pivotal. Despite strong showings in recent World Cups, the States are not highly fancied in the group. Let's not even mention them beating Portugal in World Cup 2002, but focus on the here and now. The match is in Manaus, where we can expect humidity and heat, and Jurgen Klinsmann's side are physically strong, with plenty of stamina. It's a considerable banana skin. The Draw between these two sides, at around 3.613/5, looks a great value bet for these reasons.

Did You Know?

Portugal hold the record for longest streak without a draw at the World Cup (16, from 1966 to 2006).