Against All Odds: Swedish duo to go goal crazy

"Have you seen the odds of under 3.5 goals?"

With five winners under his belt last week, Paul Robinson turns his attentions to Sweden today as he thinks that two of the heavyweights of the Allsvenskan will produce plenty of goals...with all the action available on Betfair Live Video at 18:05 BST. 

Malmo FF are the reigning champions having won the league by a five point margin last year. Rikard Norling was the man in charge for that success though and he stepped away at the end of the season. Clearly the next appointment was going to be critical to the well-being of the team and it looks like the hierarchy made the right choice in offering, ge Hareide, the role as the former Man City and Norwich player has the club top of the league once again - two points clear of Elfsborg in second with a game in hand.

It's the goal statistics that we're focusing on today though and with 19 scored and seven conceded, their matches have been averaging 2.6 goals each time. A total of seven of their 10 have gone over 2.5, with the 2-2 draw against Djurgarden and the 3-1 victory over Halmstad both going over 3.5. Those two results came at home and if we scrutinise their scorelines at Swedbank Stadion, we can see that their average goals per game average shoots up from 2.6 to exactly three.

AIK were the team that finished as runners-up to Malmo last term and after retaining their manager in the close-season, they would have been hopeful about challenging for the title once again. It hasn't quite worked out that way just yet however as the Stockholm outfit are already seven points off the pace having won only half of their fixtures to date.

The problem for Andreas Alm's men has been at the back as with 15 conceded, only five other teams in the entire division have let in more. On a brighter note, 'Gnaget' have scored 17 themselves, which gives their matches an average of 3.2 goals per 90 minutes. Only two of their 10 have gone under 2.5 and they've had a trio of matches that had at least four goals. Interestingly, those three games came on the road and their away results this term have been 2-1 and 3-2 victories, as well as a pair of 2-2 draws.

I am hugely confident that this match will have at least three goals, but given that under 3.5 is trading as low as 1.412/5, I simply have to make it my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Malmo FF v AIK @ 1.412/5 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 142 pts
Returned: 155.82 pts
P/L: + 13.82 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)