Germany favourites to top Group G

Germany favourites to top Group G

By Michael Gales Apr 29, 2014

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Germany are favourites to qualify from a tough World Cup Group G which contains Portugal, USA and Ghana. Read this 2014 World Cup Group G betting preview for an insight into who is best placed to qualify for the knockout stage.

Germany: Should be too strong for Group G opponents

Fifa Ranking: 2nd

Best Finish: Winners (1954, 1974 & 1990)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,031^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 6.620*

Three-time winners Germany are the 1.100* favourites to qualify from Group C but are only third favourites to win the tournament outright with odds of 6.620*. This may have something to do with their past performances in South America; they reached the Quarter-Finals in Chile (1962), and the Second Group Stage in Argentina (1978) however they did reach the final in Mexico 1986 – albeit it not South America, the climate and altitude is similar. Incredibly the Germans have reached seven World Cup finals, the last in 2002.

This 2014 Germany team is blessed with more flair and fluidity than sides of the past, and their attacking play can be terrifying. As a team they have excellent cover in all positions but the array of talent in midfield is their main strength.

One area of weakness however could be in defence. Despite being traditionally solid at the back, they have been vulnerable in qualifying where they conceded seven goals in two qualifiers against Sweden. Another area of concern is upfront – Miroslav Klose is just one goal shy of Ronaldo’s all-time World Cup finals tally, but will be 36 by the time the tournament starts and a reliable replacement has yet to be found.

Manager Joachim Low will see the World Cup as a failure if he doesn’t secure a fourth World Cup win for the Germans, however he has a 68% win ratio that is the best of any German manager.

Low guided Germany through qualification with the only hiccup dropping points in an extraordinary 4-4 draw with Sweden – having led 4-0. They scored an average of 3.6 goals per game – the highest of anyone at the World Cup -, were one of only two teams to score at least two goals per game, and conceded an average of 1 goal per game.

With the conditions so different in South America – the grass is longer and denser, meaning the ball won’t move quickly, while the heat and humidity can be an issue for a team who play with high intensity – Germany’s success will depend on how swiftly they can adapt their game, but the odds at Pinnacle Sports imply a 91% chance of advancing so that question should be answered in the latter stages of the tournament.

Germany’s record against Group G opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Ghana

1

0

0

100%

USA

6

3

0

67%

Portugal

5

1

3

56%

Portugal: Will Ronaldo shine in Brazil?

Fifa Ranking: 5th

Best Finish: 3rd (1966)

Overall Miles to travel: 2,823^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 31.000*

Portugal’s odds of 1.513* to progress out of Group G sees them as the clear second-favourites behind Germany. However their fate will surely lie on the form and fitness of the World Player of The Year, Cristiano Ronaldo. His individual brilliance is the perfect foil for a lack of a top class striker, which has hindered the team since their Semi-Final exit in Euro 2012.

Despite only losing to Russia during qualifying, Portugal finished second in the group meaning they qualified via the play-offs for the second successive World Cup, and it was Ronaldo who scored a brilliant hat-trick to secure a 4-2 aggregate win against Sweden.

Manager Paulo Bento took charge in September 2010 after a successful period in charge of Sporting Lisbon, where he won four domestic cups in six years. One problem facing Bento and his Portugal team however, is the amount of travelling they have to deal with. They have to travel 2,823 miles across their three group games – the second worst of all teams at Brazil. How they deal with this, and their perennial issue of relying so much on one player, could determine how far they progress.

Portugal’s record against Group G opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Germany

1

5

3

11%

Ghana

0

0

0

0%

USA

2

2

1

40%

USA: Can Klinsmann ruin Germany’s chances?

Fifa Ranking: 14th

Best Finish: Semi-Finals (1930)

Overall Miles to travel: 3,482^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 136.00*

The USA are Group G third favourites to qualify for the knockout stages and can be backed at 3.700*.  Head coach Jurgen Klinsmann has stated that anything but reaching the knockout stage will be classed as a failure – his World Cup winners medal from 1990 proves he knows what it takes to succeed on the pitch.

They have been in good form recording a national record 16 wins in this calendar year, which included a win against Germany – albeit a weakened side.

Under Klinsmann the USA are the most improved team in the competition moving from 27th in the FIFA World Rankings, to 14th over the past year. They recovered from an opening 2-1 defeat by Honduras in qualifying to finish four points clear at the top of the six-team final group phase, winning all five home matches, though the depth of opposition must temper the value of that success.

Their defence will be an issue however and there is a lack of continuity as Klinsmann seeks out his best team – 37 players were used in qualifying, suggesting an uncertainty in his mind as to the right formation and personnel.

That aside, the biggest threat to the USA will be the local conditions and the travelling they will endure. They have the most distance to travel at 3,482 miles, while they will suffer the 2nd highest average temperatures of anyone at Brazil. How will the logistics and local climate affect their chances of qualifying for the knockout stage?

USA’s record against Group G opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Germany

3

6

0

33%

Ghana

0

2

0

0%

Portugal

2

2

1

40%

Ghana: Will they be the surprise package?

Fifa Ranking: 24th

Best Finish: Quarter-Finals (2010)

Overall Miles to travel: 1,321^

Odds to win 2014 World Cup: 151.00*

Ghana have qualified for their third World Cup in succession.  However having been drawn in a relatively tough group they are the 3.850* underdogs to qualify for the knockout stages.

In 2010 Ghana were in touching distance of becoming the first ever African semi-finalists after Uruguay’s Luis Suarez was sent off for handling on the line in the dying seconds of extra-time. However, Asamoah Gyan missed the spot-kick and Ghana then lost the penalty shootout, but the threat was there.

On paper Ghana are one of the strongest African sides – reaching the semi-finals at each of the last four Africa Cup of Nations. However keeping Andre and Jordan Ayew, Michael Essien and Kevin-Prince Boateng happy will be key to their success. The quartet returned to the setup following a self-imposed exile, which helped the Black Stars qualify – they won five of their six games and then thrashed Egypt 7-3 on aggregate in the play-off game.

During the campaign they scored more goals (25) than any other African nation at an average of 3.31 goals per game. However their odds suggest a repeat of their performance in 2010 is unlikely.

Ghana’s record against Group G opponents

H-to-H Record

Win

Loss

Draw

Win %

Germany

0

1

0

0%

USA

2

0

0

100%

Portugal

0

0

0

0%

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup futures odds.

Click here to see the latest 2014 World Cup match odds.

*Odds subject to change

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