World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Brazil

Neymar is the star of this Brazil side, but Fred's strength upfront will also be key

South American football expert Jonathan Wilson runs the rule over Brazil and their chances in their home World Cup...

Road to Brazil

Since Luiz Felipe Scolari returned to the manager's position in November 2012, Brazil's form has improved dramatically. In 20 games under him, they've won 16 and drawn two, and they won last summer's Confederations Cup in comprehensive fashion, scoring 14 and conceding three in five games. Their most recent friendly saw them demolish South Africa 5-0.

The Manager

Luis Felipe Scolari is looking to become only the second manager, after the Italian Vittorio Pozzo, to win the World Cup twice. He was in charge of Brazil when they won in Japan and South Korea in 2002, then led Portugal to the semi-finals in 2006. His great strength is his capacity to forge a tight-knit group, at times seemingly valuing players he feels he can trust over more skilful alternatives. Part of that team-building can be to create a siege mentality, which is one of the reasons Scolari can at times appear is boorish: he's quite happy to deflect pressure from his team by drawing it onto himself.

Key men

Neymar is clearly the star, and had an excellent Confederations Cup, cutting in from the left. The most important aspect of this Brazil side, though, is the balance they've achieved. Fred, as a bustling centre-forward who's decent in the air, prevents opposing defences dropping too deep, so there should always be space behind opposing back-lines for Neymar and Hulk, cutting in from the other flank, to capitalise on. Oscar, as the central creator, can drop back and play effectively as a third midfielder, which should prevent the three-quarter area becoming too congested, while the overlapping runs of the two full-backs, Dani Alves on the right and Marcelo on the left, offer width and facilitate Neymar and Hulk's darts inside. The big question mark is whether the two holding midfielders, Paulinho and either Fernandinho or Luiz Gustavo, can adequately cover behind the full-backs when they press on. Certainly it's easy to imagine opponents looking to attack those spaces on the break.

Talking Point

Impressive as Brazil were in the Confederations Cup, they were never really under pressure. In three of the five games, including in the final against Spain, they scored within the first 10 minutes, seemingly riding a wave of patriotic euphoria that began with the raucous singing of the national anthem. Even in the other two games, they were ahead by half-time, and were never behind in the whole tournament. Given the fact that there are likely to be anti-corruption demonstrations beyond the exclusion zones around the grounds, and given the way this tournament is haunted by the ghosts of 1950, when Brazil cruised through their last World Cup only to lose at the last to Uruguay, it may be that the crowd could turn were Brazil to be frustrated on the pitch, bringing the anger of the protests into the grounds. The Confederations Cup simply didn't offer any evidence on that score.

Best Bet

Given the pressures of being at home, and given that, after a relatively simple group, Brazil could face a run to the final of the Netherlands or Chile, England or Italy, Germany or France then Argentina or Spain, they seem far too short at 4.1n/a. They have, after all, exited the last two World Cups in the quarter-finals, so laying Brazil at 4.216/5 seems reasonable.

Value Bet

Neymar is 13.5n/a to win the Golden Boot, which makes a certain sense in that Brazil are likely to play seven games in the tournament and have been high-scoring in over the past two years. A more intriguing option, though, may be Fred, who outscored Neymar at the Confederations Cup, is a major threat at set-pieces and is available at 24.023/1. Five goals in eight domestic games this season suggests he is in reasonable form - albeit three of them came in the Cup. Or, even longer, there's Hulk at 60.059/1, which seems very long for a player who scored 17 goals in 24 league games for Zenit last season and could capitalise if opposing sides are distracted by Neymar.

Did You Know?

Brazil are taking part in their 20th World Cup. They are the only team to have taken part in every single tournament.