The Punter's In-Play Blog: To lay or not to lay?

Charl is tied for the lead in South Africa

Charl Schwartzel has picked up from where he left off last week and he's now tied for the halfway lead at the Alfred Dunhill Championship. A follow up win is odds-on but will our man be laying back his pre-event wager?

12:45 - December 14, 2012

I had every intention of kicking off the In-Play Blog yesterday but not having any internet access since Wednesday afternoon scuppered that plan, so apologies for the delay. I guess it could have been worse; Sky could have been down too!

I've had access to the scores and the markets via my mobile phone but I know I'm behind with both and I've just chilled with it. Having a good week last week certainly helps the pre-Christmas mood and I've taken the decision to just let things materialise this.

The first event to start this week was the Australian PGA Championship, which Paul Krishnamurty looked at before the off here. Zhang Xin Jun and Daniel Popovicare are tied for the lead on -10 but after that, Paul's picks are doing fine. Geoff Ogilvy, advised at 12.011/1 for the win, sits just two back, and is now a very tempting 4.3100/30 shot, and his place selections are doing well too.

Mathew Goggin, backed for both a Top-5 and Top-10 finish, is on -7 and tied for 5th and Rodney Pampling, a further stroke back on -6 and tied for 8th, looks poised to finish inside the advised Top-10.

I followed Paul in on Nick O'Hern for a Top-10 finish at 2.56/4 before play started and although he's currently languishing in a tie for 34th on -2, there's still a long way to go and much can change over the weekend Down Under.

It looks as though I've picked the wrong 'name' at the Iskandar Johor Open, where tournament favourite, Sergio Garcia, his heading to odd-on. Playing with my pre-event pick, Ernie Els, the two were tied when they finished up round one this morning, after weather had halted play on Thursday, but the Spaniard has kicked clear of Els in round two and is now tied for the lead with David Lipsky on -9.

It's a tricky one to bet on because the weather is so unpredictable so I'm going to hang fire for now. It will be interesting to see what first round leader Lipsky can do in round two (he's still yet to start his second round), if he can shoot something half decent and the event gets reduced to 54 holes, his current price of 7.06/1 could look generous.

He's already a winner this year, in Cambodia, so he can't be readily dismissed but on the other hand, if they manage to get 72 holes played, that price could look very skinny, especially if he doesn't shine in round two.

I'm very much leaning towards swerving this event now but if I get back on-line I'll look in on the live coverage in the morning and have a rethink but for now, it's all about the Alfred Dunhill Championship, where my man, and Mike Norman's, Charl Schwartzel is most definitely the man to beat.

Switching on the live coverage this morning, at 8.30am, was the highlight of the week so far. I'd looked at the scores after Schwartzel had played the par 3 16th hole (his 7th hole of the round) at around 7.40am, and he was two-under for the day, -7 for the event, and three behind Gregory Bourdy. I was more than happy with that and as I was busy readying kids for school, I took the decision not to look again.

Coffee made, I sat down and hoped for a birdie at the 9th hole, and maybe one at the 2nd. I told myself I'd be happy if he was on -9 and if Bourdy hadn't gone clear but he'd actually birdied 17, eagled 18, birdied the 1st and birdied the 2nd. Wow, he'd been on fire and instead of -9, he was on -12! He hadn't gone clear though, after dropping a shot at the 3rd hole, Bourdy birdied the 5th and eagled the drivable par 4 6th and the pair were tied.

Both picked up one more birdie apiece after that and the afternoon starters will have to fly if they want to get involved, -13 is a tremendous halfway score around here. Schwartzel traded as low as 1.664/6 at one stage and had I been on-line, I may well have at least layed my stakes back. He's now just 1.738/11 but I'm going to wait and see what happens in the morning.

Australian PGA Championship Pre-Event selection
Nick O'Hern Top-10 @ 2.56/4

Iskandar Johor Open Pre-Event selection
Ernie Els @ 7.613/2

Alfred Dunhill Championship Pre-Event selections
Charl Schwartzel @ 5.69/2
Garth Mulroy @ 55.054/1
Eduardo de la Riva @ 100.099/1
Ruan de Smidt @ 310.0309/1

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