The Big Match Tactical View: Newcastle v Man City

Sergio Aguero will return to his best position as City's striker

Michael Cox assesses the tactical decisions facing Alan Pardew and Roberto Mancini.

Newcastle v Manchester City, Saturday 12:45, Sky Sports 2.

Match Odds: Newcastle 5.79/2, Manchester City 1.715/7, The Draw 4.1n/a.

Manchester City took a huge step towards their first Premier League title with a 2-0 in this fixture last season, and a major factor in their victory was Roberto Mancini pushing Yaya Toure forward into an advanced midfield role.

Mancini would have considered starting in that fashion here, but Gareth Barry's one-game suspension means Toure will be alongside Javi Garcia deep in midfield. Therefore, Sergio Aguero is likely to be supported by Carlos Tevez, who was surprisingly omitted from the side that lost to Manchester United last week. It's not inconceivable that Samir Nasri could be replaced by James Milner, if the latter is fit, while Kolo Toure will start ahead of Joleon Lescott if Vincent Kompany doesn't make it.

Alan Pardew has no major selection dilemmas. Yohan Cabaye continues to be absent through injury, but Newcastle are unlikely to be unchanged from the defeat to Fulham on Monday night. However, Pardew remains unsure of his best formation - Demba Ba, Papiss Cisse and Hatem Ben Arfa are clearly his preferred attackers, but should he play a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1, or 4-4-2? Ba and Cisse don't work well together upfront, but neither enjoy playing wide. Ben Arfa, the Premier League's most prolific dribbler this season, is admirably adaptable.

His decision will be crucial to the flow of the match - in this fixture last season he used a 4-4-2 but Newcastle struggled to get the ball forward to the two strikers, and I'd expect Pardew to revert to a more defensive-minded system featuring three central midfielders. Tevez thrives in the space between two banks of four, and a more 'defined' holding midfielder would allow Newcastle to prevent the Argentine from getting too much space in that zone.

City's main attacking threat is Sergio Aguero, however, and Newcastle's centre-back partnership of Fabricio Coloccini and Mike Williamson will struggle to cope with his sudden acceleration in behind the defence. Last week against Manchester United, Aguero was used 'in the hole' behind Mario Balotelli, but he's more effective when used as the primary striker. He's not all about pace, but it's a devastating weapon.

Another key area is the positioning of City's full-backs. With Nasri and David Silva drifting into the middle, Mancini likes Gael Clichy and Pablo Zabaleta to get forward and stretch the play. Their level of freedom will inevitably depend upon Newcastle's shape, but I think they'll be cautious in this match - Mancini will be worried about Newcastle breaking quickly, particularly through Ben Arfa's dribbling. 

Garcia isn't yet as dependable as Nigel de Jong in the holding role (Ben Arfa, of course, will be delighted de Jong won't be involved), and Newcastle could cause problems on the counter-attack. Garcia has picked up five bookings already in his short spell at City, collecting a card every 127 minutes in all competitions, and one mistimed tackle on the break could land him in trouble here. Therefore, backing him to be booked at around 3.814/5 would represent good value.

Manchester City have won eight of their last nine matches against Newcastle, a record you can't ignore. Although I don't fancy Mancini's side too much at 1.75/7, I like 5.24/1 for Draw / Man City in the Half Time / Full Time market. City will start relatively cautiously before increasingly pushing forward in the second half, and with their options from the bench, they have a habit of winning games late on.

Recommended bets:
Back Javi Garcia to be shown a card at 3.814/5
Back Draw / Man City in Half Time / Full Time at 5.24/1