The Big Match Tactical View: Norwich v Sunderland

Alexander Tettey has helped transform Norwich's season

Norwich have gone seven games unbeaten, and Michael Cox fancies them to extend that run.

Norwich v Sunderland, Sunday 4:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Norwich 2.166/5, Sunderland 4.03/1, The Draw 3.45n/a

After a difficult start to the season, Norwich have now settled down with a consistent side and a steady stream of impressive results - early season thrashings against Fulham and Liverpool seem like a distant memory, with famous 1-0 home victories against Arsenal and Manchester United evidence of their sudden transformation into a slid, disciplined team. They are rightly favourites for this content.

Chris Hughton has drilled his players relentlessly at getting into a good defensive shape, with two banks of four behind the ball. The two holding midfielders, Bradley Johnson and Alexander Tettey, sit very deep, allowing the opposition time on the ball in deep positions, but preventing players finding space between the lines. 

On the flanks, Norwich's full-backs will be protected well, which is crucial against a Sunderland side heavily based around width, and providing Steven Fletcher with crosses. Adam Johnson has sometimes moved to the left in recent weeks, but his predictable play on the right - always cutting inside onto his stronger foot - will play into the hands of Norwich. 

There's every chance of Norwich keeping a clean sheet here at 2.89/5 - their organisation in open play is superb, and Sunderland lack a true creator to manufacture chances from central positions. Stephane Sessegnon can be a threat with his dribbling, but against central midfielders sitting deep, he contributes little.

The on bige question mark, in terms of the Norwich clean sheet, is at set-pieces - Sunderland have a couple of fine dead ball specialists in Craig Gardner and Sebastian Larsson, while Norwich conceded a sloppy goal at Southampton in midweek from a free-kick.

Going forward, Norwich are likely to play on the counter-attack rather than seeking to dominate possession, although they'll probably have a couple of decent spells of pressure. In Wes Hoolahan, they have the creator that Sunderland badly lack. He has few defensive responsibilities and plays close to Grant Holt, drifting around to find pockets of space. 

Norwich also have attack-minded wingers on the flanks - Robert Snodgrass, much like Johnson, is too predictable with his movement, but he and Anthony Pilkington might get more space, because Sunderland's wingers can switch off and leave their full-backs isolated. Don't expect much overlapping from Norwich's full-backs, however - they're likely to stay in defensive positions, which should prevent them conceding the type of goal Fletcher scored at Fulham - drifting into the channels to collect a long diagonal pass.

My second recommended bet is slightly more ambitious - it's for Alexander Tettey to score. The Ghanaian-born Norweigan international is a defensive midfielder, but against Southampton he showed a willingness to break forward into attack, catching the opposition off-guard. He's also happy to strike from long-range when given space - which he might afforded against this Sunderland midfield - as shown by his shot that led to Grant Holt's winner against Arsenal.

Because he's yet to get off the mark for Norwich, the market might not truly reflect his attacking capabilities, so backing him to open the scoring at 40.039/1 or more would be a decent bet.

Overall, I struggle to see many goals in this match - neither side will take command of the game, and both lack reliable sources of goals other than their main striker. It's also worth considering fitness levels - this is both clubs' third match in nine days, and neither manager has rotated significantly in recent weeks. Sometimes tiredness can lead to defensive lapses and late goals, but often it simply means less attacking ambition and fewer off-the-ball runs towards goal.

Overall, this is Norwich's match to lose - I just hope they're not saving their best performances for big games, as the wins over Arsenal and Manchester United might suggest.

Recommended bets:
Back Norwich to keep a clean sheet at 2.89/5
Back Tettey to open the scoring at 40.039/1