Premier League Tips: Villains to rob Stoke of all three points

Christian Benteke has been the main man under Paul Lambert

After a disappointing couple of weeks, Paul Robinson is looking to make amends and get back into profit. Here are his selections:

Aston Villa v Stoke
Back Aston Villa @ 2.37 (11/8)
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.61 (8/13)

Aston Villa take on an in-form Stoke side but I have a feeling that it will be Paul Lambert's men that will come out on top in what is sure to be a close fought affair.

Villa are down in 15th place with just three victories to their name all season, however they have been showing signs of a revival of late. They have avoided defeat in their last trio of matches and they've only lost twice in seven, both of which came against the Manchester clubs.

Since their loss to Everton in their first home game of the year, the Villains have played six on their own patch, winning two, drawing three and losing just one. The defence have been excellent in that period, registering three clean sheets and conceding just once in two of the other three. Admittedly they have been struggling for goals, but Christian Benteke has looked dangerous and he should pose the Stoke defence a few problems.

Stoke are having a magnificent campaign and they've climbed to ninth after picking up 13 points from a possible 15. While they did beat West Brom at the Hawthorns on Saturday, the Baggies weren't at full strength and I still have some doubts about Stoke's away form.

A low scoring home victory seems most likely to me and even though under 2.5 goals is as low as 1.61 (8/13) it still represents value. Villa's last three at home have gone under as have Stoke's last three away, and both sides are better at the back than up front.

Everton v Tottenham
Back Everton @ 2.0 (1/1)  
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75 (3/4)  

This is a proper Premier League clash between two clubs that have been in the top flight for years. I fancy Everton to have the edge here as Spurs are likely to be without their star man.

The Toffee's recorded yet another draw at the weekend, their seventh in nine games, however they won't be disappointed with this one as it came at the Etihad. I have opposed Everton a couple of times recently, citing their weakness in midfield, but they are back to full strength now as Darren Gibson has returned, adding some much needed steel to the centre of the park. 

Marouane Fellaini is going from strength to strength, Mikel Arteta described him as 'unplayable' last week and the Belgian has now netted eight times this term. He will be a handful for a Spurs defence that has shipped 13 goals in seven away fixtures.

Tottenham are on a roll at present; three wins on the spin, although they were largely outplayed by Liverpool in the game at White Hart Lane. My concern for AVB's side is that Gareth Bale limped out of the Fulham match with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to be fit. He is clearly the star performer of the team and while Moussa Dembele and Sandro have formed a fantastic partnership in midfield, I worry about their cutting edge up front in the Welshman's absence.

Man City v Man Utd
Back Man Utd @ 2.87 (15/8)  
Back Man Utd to win 2-1 @ 9.5 (17/2)  

The big clash of the weekend happens on Sunday as Manchester City host Manchester United. I'm taking United to exact revenge here as the defending champs are likely to be without their playmaker, David Silva. 

City trail United by three points at the top after 15 games of the season, and it already looks like a two horse race between the pair as there is a seven point gap to the struggling, Chelsea. Roberto Mancini's side started the campaign relatively slowly, avoiding defeat, but stuttering to a number of draws. David Silva was either absent or not fully fit back then and it was no surprise that they returned to form when he was firing. The announcement of his doubtfulness for this game is a huge blow for City then, as they lack a cutting edge without him on the field.

United certainly aren't lacking a cutting edge; it's 37 goals for them in the league thus far, with Robin Van Persie leading the way with 10. The problems for the Red Devils lie at the back and they conceded another three last week against Reading.

That may have been the final straw for Sir Alex Ferguson and he is likely to bring in Chris Smalling for Rafael and even perhaps rush Nemanja Vidi back from injury to play a part. Defensive problems aside though, I think United will have enough about them to pick up the win here, and a 2-1 away win in the correct score market looks tasty at 9.5 (17/2).

Recommended Bets
Back Aston Villa @ 2.37 (11/8)   
Back under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Stoke @ 1.61 (8/13)   
Back Everton @ 2.0 (1/1)   
Back Over 2.5 goals in Everton v Tottenham @ 1.75 (3/4)   
Back Man Utd @ 2.87 (15/8)   
Back Man Utd to win 2-1 @ 9.5 (17/2)  

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2012/13 Season P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 79 pts
Returned: 72.66 pts
P/L -6.34 pts