Australian Open Tips: Avoid the favourites and steam into place value

Ultra-consistent Nick O'Hern is an old friend of place punters

The cream of the Australian crop head to The Lakes for their national Open this week, along with some extremely famous overseas names. Paul Krishnamurty gives his verdict...

Australian golf is infamous for being dominated by the favourites and, after the first two of four prestigious events on this year's schedule, its been very much business as usual. First, the Perth International was totally dominated by classy American pair Bo Van Pelt and Jason Dufner. Then at the Masters, Adam Scott and Ian Poulter were backed into all-time lows before completely separating themselves from the rest.

Those results, along with decades of rock-solid trends, will doubtless encourage some to see this week's Australian Open in the same light, but punters should think twice before taking single-figure odds about market leaders Scott and Justin Rose. For sure, they are the best of these on the world stage but the opposition is considerably stronger than in those last two events. Nearly all the big names in Australian golf will be at The Lakes, including some ultra-reliable characters that have consistently thrived in these 'triple crown' events.

The leading pair also both have meaningful questions to answer. In response to the looming rule change, Scott is abandoning the broomstick putter that enabled him to neutralise his great weakness. Moreover, he's only made one top-ten in four previous outings at The Lakes, which doesn't read well at this level. As for Rose, this will be his third different continent in three weeks and on the evidence of last week's 11th out of 12 at the Nedbank, a tournament too far after a long season.

Consequently, the other main candidates represent even better value, across the usual range of win and place markets. As argued over the years with repeated success, place markets are never as competitive as the odds suggest in Australia. The courses are so tough and the fields so lacking in depth that leaderboards tend to be entirely predictable. We are dealing with a group of Aussies who have delivered time and again in these events and made a mockery of place odds. 

Just take the example of my main pick, Nick O'Hern. Stretching back seven years to 2005, O'Hern has played 14 events in his homeland, ten times making the top-six and never finishing worse than 24th. It doesn't require any great mathematical skills to calculate that this week's odds of 42.041/1, 9.28/1 and 4.1n/a about the win, top-five and top-ten respectively are way out of line with the historical, statistical reality. Never mind a fruitless season in the States - Nick never does much over there, and 22nd at the recent Frys.com Open was actually a better effort than usual.

Another longstanding favourite of this column is John Senden, although in his case, the market has taken notice. The 2006 champion has registered top-tens on five of his last six home appearances, twice finishing second, and has been relentlessly consistent all year in the States. As a very rare winner, I'm loathe to take relatively short outright odds, but 2.26/5 for another top-ten looks rock-solid. Likewise, defending champ Greg Chalmers is only a small fraction of last year's odds, but is almost impossible to envisage being far away.

Marcus Fraser lacks consistency on home soil compared to that trio, but is way overpriced at 30.029/1 to win the event. He finished runner-up on both Aussie starts last winter for a triple-crown personal best and also enjoyed his best European Tour season. At 65.064/1, the odds about Matt Jones make even less sense. Here is a player who has made an impact in the States and just earned a PGA Tour card - something most of this field can only dream of. Moreover, Jones already shown a liking for The Lakes, finishing second in the 2010 Open here. 

Best of the outsiders could be Cameron Percy, who has the right ball-striking skills for Aussie courses, which explains five straight triple-crown top-25s including a couple of top-sevens, and some solid recent Web.com Tour numbers.

Finally, the legendary Tom Watson is far from out of this. Tom has shown in recent Opens that, on courses where length is less of an issue than good iron play and sound course management, he can still compete with the younger generation. A good form guide involves Peter Senior - still very competitive in Australia, yet inferior to Watson on the seniors stage.

In total, my betting plan involves staking 48 units on seven players, with only O'Hern backed in all three markets. Note, however, that there is ample opportunity to retrieve at least most of the stake. Just one place winner, for instance would retrieve around half the total outlay. 

Outright

3u Marcus Fraser @ 30.029/1
2.5u Nick O'Hern @ 40.039/1
1.5u Matt Jones @ 65.064/1
1u Cameron Percy @ 100.099/1

Top-five finish

3u Nick O'Hern @ 9.08/1
2u Matt Jones @ 12.011/1
1u Tom Watson @ 38.037/1

Top-ten finish

10u John Senden @ 2.26/5
10u Greg Chalmers @ 2.47/5
8u Nick O'Hern @ 4.1n/a
5u Cameron Percy @ 6.05/1
1u Tom Watson @ 20.019/1