Premier League Tips: Fulham and Spurs to go goal crazy

Expect a thriller at the Cottage today

There is almost a full program of Premier League fixtures today and Paul Robinson has cast his eye over the Betfair fixed odds markets to try and find some value. Here are his selections:

Fulham v Spurs
Back the Draw @ 3.25 (9/4)  
Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.87 (15/8)

My first selection of the week is a London derby between Fulham and Spurs. This looks like a pretty close affair and I think the draw could be the value, as well as plenty of goals.

Fulham have dropped a bit in recent weeks after going six games without a victory. Martin Jol's side have only lost two of them, but they've not been able to turn draws into wins. The two defeats came in the last three; a 1-3 loss at home to Sunderland where they were reduced to 10 men when the score was still 0-0, and then they followed that with a 1-0 defeat at Stoke. 

As well as missing Brede Hangeland through suspension, Fulham have also been without Bryan Ruiz through injury. They did manage to get a point at Stamford Bridge in the week though in their absence and they will be boosted by a return to Craven Cottage today. 

Spurs picked up their second consecutive win in midweek over Liverpool but aside from the first 20 minutes, the hosts were second best. AVB must have concerns over his defence as they looked all at sea during that match and they've conceded 23 league goals so far this campaign.

Gareth Bale continues to impress everyone in the game, especially Luka Modric, and he will cause plenty of problems for the weakened Fulham back four this afternoon.
 
West Brom v Stoke
Back West Brom @ 2.0 (1/1)  
Back West Brom to win 2-0 @ 9.0 (8/1)

West Brom take on Stoke at the Hawthorns at 3pm and they are my standout bet of the weekend at even money.

Steve Clarke's team have been pretty much unstoppable at home this year, suffering just one defeat at the hands of Manchester City.  That aside, the Baggies have won their other six fixtures, beating the likes of Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea, conceding just three goals. They did put in a sub-standard performance in the week against Swansea, but they fell behind early and were never able to recover. That was of course at the Liberty Stadium anyway, and with the in-form Shane Long sure to be returned to the starting line up, I can't see anything other than three points.

Stoke are enjoying a good campaign as well, but everyone knows they are much better at home than they are away. The Potters haven't won a Premier League match away from the Britannia since a 2-1 victory at Blackburn on the 2nd of January, and since then, they've played 16, drawn seven and lost nine. 

Peter Crouch is a doubt through injury and that will only weaken them even more as he's their only consistent goal source. A West Brom win to nil looks good to me and 2-0 at 9.0 (8/1) looks very tempting.

Reading v Man Utd
Back Man Utd @ 1.44 (4/9)  
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.57 (4/7)

Manchester United travel to Reading in the tea time kick off and I expect Alex Ferguson's men to get the job done in style.

Reading had gone four games unbeaten but trips to Wigan and Aston Villa were fruitless, dropping them back down to 19th in the league. The Royals have only lost six times all season, which is better than all the sides around them, but they've only won once and they've shipped far too many goals at home. They conceded three to Spurs and Fulham and a further two to Newcastle. Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney will be salivating at lining up against the back four and I can see both of them getting on the score sheet.

United themselves have also been conceding too many goals; 18 in 14 matches, but the difference is, they've netted a whopping 33 themselves, six more than any other club. Ferguson won't want to see a repeat of the 1-0 loss at Norwich in their last away game and I'd imagine he'll tell his players to try and put the game to bed early on.

They may not be original choices but an away win and over 2.5 goals look nailed on here and I'm happy to take odds-on about them to complete what will hopefully be a profitable day.

Recommended Bets
Back a Fulham v Spurs draw @ 3.25 (9/4)  
Back Over 3.5 goals in Fulham v Spurs @ 2.87 (15/8)  
Back West Brom @ 2.0 (1/1)  
Back West Brom to win 2-0 @ 9.0 (8/1)  
Back Man Utd @ 1.44 (4/9)  
Back Over 2.5 goals in Reading v Man Utd @ 1.57 (4/7)  

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2012/13 Season P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 73 pts
Returned: 69.65 pts
P/L -3.35 pts