La Liga Preview: Valencia on the run in Pamplona

More dejection awaits Iker Casillas

Valencia have a new manager, but an old failing. Tobias Gourlay corrals the best bets from this week's TV games

Valladolid v Real Madrid
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Valladolid 13.5n/a Real 1.330/100 draw 6.411/2

Real Madrid continue to plug away. Reduced by Betis to a mere three away wins in seven, Jose Mourinho's men came back with yet another derby win over Atletico and should notch another three points at seventh-placed Valladolid.

The team news is interesting. Marcelo and Raul Albiol are definitely out and Fabio Coentrao might be forced on to the sidelines too after going off injured in the Champions League this week. The upshot of these defensive problems is likely to be Alvaro Arbeloa switching to the left and Sergio Ramos vacating central defence.

Real have already conceded in 5/7 away from home this season. Valladolid have found the back of the net in 6/7 at the Jose Zorilla this term. Oscar Gonzalez and Patrick Ebert are their major attacking threats. Both are fit and Both Teams to Score rates a bet at 1.9210/11.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.9210/11

Osasuna v Valencia
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Osasuna 2.8415/8 Valencia 2.767/4 draw 3.412/5

Looks like a close game in Pamplona. Five of Osasuna's last six at El Sadar have produced three goals or fewer and six of Valencia's seven road games have also catered only for the cognoscenti.

But news of these results has spread and the great unwashed agree that Under 2.5 Goals should be just 1.728/11.

Go deeper and you'll find that value lurks in the result markets. Valencia are the worst away team in the league (W0-D2-L5), but reputation makes them slight favourites. Sure, they have a new coach - and Ernesto Valverde's not a bad one - but this just isn't right.

Jose Luis Mendilibar's Osasuna haven't conceded a goal for six hours and, since winning this fixture a couple of seasons ago, they've won three times as many home games as they've lost.

One from outside the box: Osasuna Win to Nil. The Reds have got that newly mean defence, while Valencia have scored only two goals in their seven away games so far. 5.04/1 would make it a long shot to take on.

Recommended Bet
Back Osasuna DNB @ 2.021/1

Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Atletico 1.331/3 Deportivo 12.011/1 draw 5.95/1

There are lots of reasons to think Atletico will overpower Deportivo: they've won this fixture seven times in a row; Diego Simeone has won 13/15 at home to non-Big Two sides.

And there are reasons to believe the visitors will be polished off quickly: Atletico have been ahead at half-time and full-time in 6/7 at the Vicente Calderon; Deportivo have conceded 11 first-half goals in seven on the road this season.

Alas, the market is catching up with us. Two weeks ago, we got 2.6413/8 about the Atletico double result against Sevilla. This time around, it's in to 1.875/6.

Falcao too is a marked man. The Colombian has scored in six of Atletico's seven league games at the Vicente Calderon this season. It's a fine record, but the market's edging towards Messi prices for a player who is not at that level and remains too reliant on good team performances to justify 1.51/2.

The numbers say Both Teams To Score is a better bet at 1.910/11. It's paid out in all seven of Depor's away games this season and in 4/6 at the Calderon.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.910/11

Betis v Barcelona
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Betis 10.5n/a Barcelona 1.341/3 draw 5.95/1

Our punting plan - and perhaps the match - turns on whether Lionel Messi is fit to play.

If Tito Vilanova sticks him in the starting XI, then Any Unquoted Correct Score is the selection at 3.613/5. All it means is that one or both of the teams score four times.

It's been a winner in each of Barcelona's last four road games and on Sunday the league leaders go up against a defence that has let in two or more goals in 5/6 at the Benito Villamarin.

If Messi is left out, take Betis on the Asian Handicap. Messi hasn't been injured for a couple of years, so records of Barca's performance without him are scarce, but the Andalusians are scoring regularly enough to keep them in sight and have a decent record at home to the Big Two. They've lost only 2/7 since 2007 and never by more than the odd goal.

Vallecano v Zaragoza
Monday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports Xtra)
Vallecano 2.265/4 Zaragoza 3.45n/a draw 3.613/5

Opta says Rayo Vallecano have won only 3/22 against Zaragoza, but Monday brings a fine opportunity to right that historical wrong.

Paco Jemez's men have won 4/5 at home to non-Big Two sides, while their visitors have lost 4/7. (In the interests of fairness, that's 2/5 if you take out the recent losses to Barca and Real.)

We were bitten by Zaragoza a fortnight ago, when they held off an insipid Mallorca side with ten men, but are not shy of backing the home win again this time.

Recommended Bet
Back Vallecano @ 2.265/4