Against All Odds: Mallorca + Deportivo = Goals

Expect to see plenty of goal celebrations tonight

Deportivo travel to Mallorca this evening for the second leg of their Copa del Rey tie with the score poised at 1-1 and Paul Robinson is expecting it to be an explosive affair.

Mallorca are having a poor campaign to date and they find themselves down in 16th place in La Liga after three defeats in a row in that competition. They have shipped an alarming 22 goals so far, an average of 1.69 per game, and that must be a concern for manager, Joaqun Caparrs.

At the Iberostar Stadium, four of their last six have gone over 2.5 goals, with their last two results being 0-5 and 2-4 losses, although they were against Real Madrid and Barcelona. 

Deportivo were promoted to the top flight last year after winning the Segunda Division. Obviously they haven't been able to maintain that kind of form at this higher level, but they aren't in the relegation zone at least, and are just a point behind this evening's opponents.

Similarly to Mallorca, Jos Luis Oltra's side are conceding too many goals; 28 in 13 games, giving them the worst defensive record in the league. The positive though is that they've netted 19 themselves, which is the highest total for any club outside of the top five.

Away from Estadio Riazor, four of Deportivo's last seven have had three goals or more, which includes a 3-3 draw with Valencia, a 5-1 defeat to Real Madrid and a 5-3 loss to Real Zaragoza just over a fortnight ago. 

The tie is beautifully poised at 1-1 and with both teams having a shaky defence, under 2.5 goals looks too short at 1.981/1 as it could develop into a proper end to end cup tie in the second half. All things considered, I simply have to make under 2.5 goals my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Mallorca v Deportivo @ 1.981/1

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 272 pts
Returned: 277.17 pts
P/L + 5.17 pts