The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rory and Luke shine on day one

Luke Donald and Rory McIlroy, the men to beat in Dubai

Steve's pre-event picks have struggled on day one but he's been very busy in-running and a timely bet on Luke Donald has set him up nicely. All he needs now is Rory to slow up, something that doesn't look likely. Read his early thoughts here...

14:05 - November 22, 2012

Europe may have retained the Ryder Cup, but with the likes of Martin Kaymer, Peter Hanson and Nicolas Colsaerts, to name but a few, all committing their futures to the PGA Tour next year, the Race to Dubai is finishing under a bit of a cloud, so George O'Grady, Chief Executive of the European Tour, will be delighted that this season's finale has been set-up so nicely after day one.

Last year's Race to Dubai winner, Luke Donald, leads by one over three players, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Marc Warren and this year's champ, Rory McIlroy, and for good measure, Louis Oosthuizen, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer are amongst the group lurking two off the lead on -5. Bring on tomorrow.

I highlighted in the preview that the three winners of this event to date have all been up with the pace early on and I'd be very surprised, given the quality up in the van already, if anyone from outside the top-10 after round one was able to win. And that's not good news for my pre-event picks...

I was supremely confident about Paul Lawrie's chances this week, so to say it was disappointing to see him double-bogey the 1st hole is a sizable understatement. He ended the round on -1 but I've given up on him already. As I have on all of mine bar Thongchai Jaidee, who shot an opening 68. He's one of ten players tied for 11th.

Given history suggests that a fast start is essential, my plan was to get involved in-running fairly early and I've already backed four players. Gonzo and Fredrik Andersson-Hed were both backed after they'd finished their rounds (Andersson-Hed shot -5), Donald was backed after he'd birdie the 7th to get to -2, and I've just added Kaymer to the portfolio.

With Rory starting slowly, a couple of groups behind him, I was pleasantly surprised to be able to load up on Luke at the same price he'd traded at on Monday and Tuesday. He'd drifted before the off for some reason and went off at around 14.013/1 but I thought 12.011/1 was perfectly fair when I backed him, given how well he appeared to be playing. 

I had mixed emotions about his birdie at the 8th. I was pleased to see him make it but at the same time, I really wanted to get a bit more on him and I felt my chance had gone but when he was next sighted playing his third shot on the tricky par 4 9th hole from the fairway, his price spiked again and I was thankfully able to back him further. 

My pre-event picks had been poor but I was certainly getting some luck in-running. Donald stroked in the par save and birdied four of the next five holes, and he missed a tiddler on the 16th too. A rarity indeed when you look at his putting stats...

Donald tweeted these very impressive figures last night, "A lot of people finding it hard to believe that I holed out just over 90% from inside 10 feet on the PGA Tour this year, here's the breakdown 3' and less 484/485 4' 108/112 5' 52/61 6' 38/50 7' 29/39 8' 17/38 9' 13/25 10' 20/34 Total 762/843 = 90.2%"

He could hardly contain his smile when interviewed afterwards and he's clearly happy about his lot. This course suits him well and he spoke about how he'd started slowly last year, suggesting that he perhaps wasn't fully focussed, worrying about whether Rory could catch him in the R2D. He performed a minor miracle to get third after opening with 72 12 months ago, let's see what he can do after starting with 65.

As stated, Rory started slowly and looked a little rusty to begin with but despite finding water on the par 5 final hole, he finished brilliantly and if I'm going to collect on Luke, I need Rory to slow-up. If he plays the rest of the tournament like he played the back-nine today, he'll win. 

Rory and Luke understandably dominate the market, with Louis and Lee Westwood next best at 10.09/1 and 11.010/1 respectfully. I was going to leave it alone until tomorrow but I can't leave Kaymer at 14.5n/a. Those three are all on the same score but for my money, Kaymer is the most reliable closer and he could just be peaking at the right time. 

I'm happy with my in-play bets so far but as the Sky coverage suggests, it's all about Rory. I need him to slow up tomorrow and it's not out of the question. He opened up with 66 last year too, but then shot three 71's. I can't see that happening this time around but I'll have my fingers crossed. 

Pre-Event Selections:
Paul Lawrie @ 46.045/1
Bernd Wiesberger @ 110.0109/1
Pablo Larrazabal @ 130.0129/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ an average of 150.0149/1
Thongchai Jaidee @ 250.0249/1
Michael Hoey @ 540.0539/1

In-Play Bets
Luke Donald @ 12.011/1
Martin Kaymer 14.5n/a
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ 50.049/1
Fredrik Andersson-Hed @ 60.059/1