The Punter's In-Play Blog: Experience counting in Hong Kong

Michael Campbell, the halfway leader in Hong Kong

Rory's on his way home and Steve's pick is the halfway favourite. He's not happy with Sky's coverage and he's not confident of victory either. Read his halfway ramblings here...

12:50 - November 16, 2012

My day started early and not particularly well. I hadn't set an alarm clock but as I woke bang-on 5.00am I thought I'd watch some live golf at the UBS Hong Kong Open. 

When the golf is in the far east, Sky have a very annoying habit of advertising the coverage as live but showing recorded play for the first two hours of the first two days play, so I rarely bother to get up nowadays but when I watched Thursday's recorded coverage, it had been shown live. 

I suspected that was down to the fact that Rory McIlroy had an afternoon tee-time and tweeted @SkySportsGolf to ask whether they'd be live again today. Needless to say, like almost every Tweeter on Twitter, they didn't bother to reply to a perfectly straightforward and civil question, so on the off chance the LIVE golf was live, I got up. It wasn't, I went back to bed. And that was a good decision, watching a recording of Rory McIlroy missing the cut isn't my idea of something worth giving up sleep for.

I just don't get it. Surely if someone drags their carcass out of bed in the dead of night to watch the golf, they're sufficiently interested in it to want to watch it live, as advertised! Anyway, moan over - for now.

When they did go live, I had the pleasure of watching my man, Miguel Angel Jimenez, making a couple of birdies to close to within one of halfway pace setter, and magnificent Find Me A 100 Winner pick, Michael Campbell.

There is a bit of separation at the top, with five players clear by two of the field. Here is the top-five with prices to back as at 12.30pm

Michael Campbell -9 5.79/2
Lian-wei Zhang -8 24.023/1
Fredrik Andersson-Hed -8 7.413/2
Miguel Angel Jimenez -8 4.94/1
Anders Hansen -7 6.05/1

-5 bar

Matteo Manassero is lurking on -3 and Matt Kuchar is viewed as a danger, according to the market, despite being seven off the lead.  Of my other picks, Thongchai Jaidee and Simon Dyson are on -2 and could, in theory, get involved if they impress in round three but really, the winner really ought to come from the front five. 

Over the first few days, conditions have been tricky with an almost ever-present swirling wind and it's noticeable that all five leaders are veterans. Mig heads the market and rightly so, over the last few years he's been the most prolific of the leading bunch and he's already won here twice before but I have to admit, I'm really not confident. I don't know what it is about this event but I always come close to a decent win but I always come up shy and I fancy it may well happen again. Here's what I wrote in last year's De-Brief...

I have to confess, I'm starting to get a bit fed up with the Hong Kong Open. Each year seems to follow the same path. I dig out a few nicely priced selections that get right into the mix but ultimately come up short. Nevertheless, no doubt I'll have another go next time and yet again I'll be focussing on accurate, patient types.

Hopefully, I'll have a change of fortunes this year but I'm not holding my breath, especially as I distinctly remember the last time I was on Jimenez and he was paired with Andersson-Hed. That was back in 2010 at the BMW Italian Open and the pair went clear of the field. I was counting my winnings on multiple winner  Jimenez but he lost the plot midway through the third round and the Swede went on to win his one and only title. 

On -3, is my European Tour weakness, James Morrison. I don't want the stress of waking up to see he's started like a bat out of hell so I've had a very small 'just in case' wager on him too now.

In the week's other events, Luke Donald is four clear at the Dunlop Phoenix and heavy odds-on. Matthew Guyatt still leads the Australian Masters, but Adam Scott and Ian Poulter are still lurking, and in South Africa, Henrik Stenson has backed up his opening 66 with an impressive second round 65 and he now leads by four and trades odds-on.

I will take a proper look when the second round has been completed but at this stage, I'd neither want to back nor lay Stenson. If that changes at all, I'll post again later but the plan for now is an early night and an early morning, with the leaders teeing off in Hong Kong, just after 5.00am, minutes after the (hopefully) live coverage starts. Unless of course, Sky has a half hour recording of Rory's journey to the airport!

12:40 - November 15, 2012

I really shouldn't have got out of bed this morning; things were going so much better before I did. When I looked in on the UBS Hong Kong Open in the early hours I was delighted to see one of my five pre-event selections, Miguel Angel Jimenez, had raced to seven under par with just two holes to play. When I woke up again, he'd bogeyed his last two holes!

The mild disappointment I felt over Mig's scruffy finish soon vanished when I looked in on the scores at the South Africa Open though. My strongest fancy of the week, Branden Grace, was three under par though just eight holes and he'd already been matched at 5.04/1. I have to confess, I was confident. But soon after I'd sorted breakfast and packed the kids off to school it all went pear-shaped...

Watching him play on Sky, I had to wonder how on earth he'd managed to get to three under. He produced some of the worst golf I'd ever seen him play and any confidence I had has well and truly evaporated. He played some awful stuff and ended his round on level par.

Day one still has a still a very long way to go with afternoon starters Henrik Stenson and George Coetzee currently making a move but they'll have to get a shift on to reach Merrick Bremner, who shot an eight under par 64 this morning.  And credit where it's due, Bremner was advised as a first round wager at a very big price by the in-form Ben Coley on the Bettingzone site. Ben's had a cracking year, his write-ups are always worth a read and if you're not already reading them you should be.

I was going to wait until tomorrow before getting involved but I couldn't resist a very small play on Richard Sterne (in the house on -3) at 28.027/1.

In Hong Kong, the big story on day one was the very poor performance of the shortest-priced jolly of the week, defending champion and world number one, Rory McIlroy, who was backed right down to 3.412/5 before the off. An opening three over par 73 sees him languishing down in a tie for 93rd, fully nine shots behind first round leader Javier Colomo and he has a mountain to climb now.  

Every winner this century has shot an opening round in the 60s and five back is the furthest any champ has been after day one. We all know how good Rory is but he'll need to be at his very best for the next three days and even then, he might still have too much ground to make up. McIlroy currently trades at 16.5n/a and he's not for me.

Starting at the 11th hole and finishing at the 10th, Jimenez may have finished poorly but he wasn't the only one. I'd written in the preview about how tricky the 18th can be and Manny Manassero, Paul Lawrie and Y E Yang all took the shine off very good rounds with dropped shots there. 

That hasn't stopped Manassero, on -3 and Yang, on -4, vying for favouritism ahead of my man Mig and they both look very dangerous. I'm going to wait until the morning now though, if either of them kick-on in round two while I'm fast asleep so be it.

I won't be the only one hoping they don't though, Paul Krishnamurty and his Find Me A 100 Winner's followers will also be eager to see that none of the morning starters pull away because Michael Campbell, who shot -3, will be out in the afternoon alongside my man Jimenez.  Another of my picks, Simon Dyson, isn't completely out of it either, he's on -2 and he's another one who tees off in the afternoon.

McIlroy may have started poorly but it's not all doom and gloom for favourite backers and they'll be far happier with developments elsewhere. Over in Japan, Luke Donald has started the Dunlop Phoenixvery well and he's now tied for the lead and trading at just a shade of odds-against. And over in Australia, the event already appears to revolve around the two that vied for jolly status before the off - Adam Scott and Ian Poulter. Mathew Guyatt leads after round one, following an opening 65, but both Scot and Poulter are two back and tied for second and it would take a brave man to lay the pair, even at this early stage.

UBS Hong Kong Open Pre-Event Selections:
Simon Dyson @ 40.039/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ an average of 55.054/1
Thongchai Jaidee @ 55.054/1
Pablo Larrazabal @ 80.079/1
Kristoffer Broberg @ 100.099/1

In-Play Bet
James Morrison @ 150.0149/1

South Africa Open Pre-Event Selections:
Branden Grace @ 12.011/1
Brandon Stone @ 280.0279/1

In-Play Bet
Richard Sterne @ 28.027/1