понедельник, 5 ноября 2012 г.

The Monday Column: Fulham have a happy Cottage under Jol

Fulham boss Martin Jol

He's been relatively successful everywhere he's been says Ralph Ellis, but Fulham boss Martin Jol rarely gets the credit he deserves. A top six finish might just change that.

Martin Jol always strikes me as one of those managers who never quite gets the credit he deserves. Just take a glance at his record over more than 20 years since he took his first proper coaching job in Holland with Den Haag and you might understand more.

He won the Dutch Cup with Roda, got Tottenham to within a dodgy lasagne of the Champions League, took Hamburg to the semi-finals of the UEFA Cup, and while Ajax missed out on the League title by a point they scored 106 goals and won their final 14 games of the season. At every club he's managed he's been responsible for a significant step up in performances.

That was until he got to Fulham, where last season he finished ninth - one place behind what Roy Hodgson had achieved while reaching the Europa League final the year before. But given the resources at Craven Cottage that's still more than respectable, and there are signs he could yet do better again.

Jol doesn't do really do self publicity. I was at Craven Cottage on Saturday and tried to suggest to him in the press conference afterwards that Fulham deserved credit for how they'd stuck at the game against Everton and rescued a point. Another manager - Alan Pardew comes to mind as an example - might have taken the chance to remind everybody about the fantastic team spirit he had generated. Jol just smiled and said: "I have to be honest, we could have lost by four or five."

The point is, however, that they didn't lose by four or five. In fact they didn't lose at all, and it's not a coincidence. Fulham's home record in 2012 is bettered only by Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City. And while they don't generate the big headlines of their London neighbours at Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham or even West Ham, it's the status of performances on the pitch that dictate places in the table rather than the size of headlines.

Jol's side are currently between 1.84/5 and 1.9420/21 to achieve a top ten finish, and that looks as safe a bet as you could ask for. They have a solid defence, in which Aaron Hughes and Brede Hangeland have long since established one of the game's most settled partnerships, which has been improved by the signing of German international right back Sascha Riether.

But it is the arrival of Dimitar Berbatov which rovides the bit of creativity to fill the gap left by the sale of last season's 17 goal top scorer Clint Dempsey.

Berbatov's early season issues with injury have disguised his potential to make a difference. He may look lazy and laconic, but his movement is deceptively effective and his ability to explode into life makes him a genuine threat. He thrived under Jol's management at Tottenham, and there are early signs that he will do so again. He brings others into play, as well as getting goals himself.

Jol's astute knowledge of the European transfer market, and the backing of owner Mohamed Al-Fayed, suggests the squad will be strengthened again in January - last year he plucked Pavel Pogrebnyak from nowhere and the Russian scored six goals in 12 League games. Without the complications of playing Europa League games, it makes them a good outside bet at up to 16.015/1 for a top six finish.

A good test of the potential will be when they take a trip to play troubled Arsenal on Saturday, and 6.86/1 in the early market for Fulham to win at The Emirates is fantastic value. At the very least I'll be laying the Gunners, minus the suspended Jack Wilshere and fatigued from a midweek Champions League fixture, at 1.548/15.

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