Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Ready, Steady, Exit For Fern?

TV presenter Fern Britton

Following Sid Owen's exit last week, our Strictly Come Dancing expert Alan Dudman is back to assess the chances of Fern Britton surviving, whilst discussing the first sambas of the series and wires.

I was hoping to get a tweet from Louis Smith this week to tell me who was heading out the exit door, but
sadly none has been forthcoming. The gymnast made a rather embarrassing boob last Saturday by revealing
Sid Owen's exit, and his 17 points epic (fail) was not enough to keep him in. His (Owen's) lowest score routine was a 5.004/1 winning tip in last week's column, and it might be safe to concentrate on that area this week.

But more on Fern Britton later.

Congratulations to Michael Vaughan, whose training really paid off for last Saturday's 31 point ballroom. His dance netted him joint second position on the Halloween leaderboard - a quite monumental turnaround. Good news again for the Betfair Ambassador this week, he is back in ballroom hold with the foxtrot and trades at 12.0011/1 for highest scorer.

Louis cemented his position as the winner market favourite, and trades at 2.245/4 following an excellent 35 points from a quality tango. He is getting the character now and starting to show more every week. The Olympian has a tricky dance with the samba for Saturday - which is all about bounce and rhythm. Smith is 2.427/5 for highest scorer - a market that has seen a fair amount of support for Denise.

I won't dwell on the big two (Denise and Louis) too long, but Van Outen has dazzled in training this week, and purely from the practice videos, her Viennese waltz could be a cracker. On BBC's 'It Take's Two', dancer Ian Waite described her as having the skills of a professional, although he was dressed as an eight-legged spider at the time. The Essex lady is a big mover at 1.9210/11 for highest score - and it's a chance to claw back Louis Smith's momentum.

Thespian Colin Salmon leapt more like a tin of tuna last weekend with a fairly ropey salsa. Having survived the bottom two with Sid seven days ago, it's time for the gigantic actor to bounce back. Salmon will tackle the foxtrot, which clearly suits him better. He is a no-go as lowest scorer at 5.104/1, but is 2.3211/8 for bottom two.

Expert blubber Victoria Pendleton was another surprise last week following her 31 points, but she has the first samba of the series which is always a very difficult dance. It's a Latin boogie that needs rhythm, of which she might just struggle with as I prefer her in ballroom. Expect tears ladies and gentlemen.

Big butch Dicky A, or Richard Arnold as we know him, was a big butch bullfighter last week and got the character perfectly. He is returning to ballroom with the foxtrot this week, and he is getting better. He is 3.6013/5 for elimination, which I think might be short enough to tempt the layers.

Lisa and Robin go tango, her brief hiatus has ended and she won't be winning this series. Nicky Byrne is fairly erratic, and I prefer his wonderful dance partner (the new Karen Hardy). He will go for the rumba this Saturday whilst Fern is going paso.

Britton could be the one in trouble again. I was hopeful of a bottom two position last week, and she did. Sadly on the leaderboard with 21 points not the red zone for exit. But I feel it's another chance to have a crack at the TV presenter, who is becoming quite dull. I don't remember her being this boring from watching Ready Steady Cook in my student days.

She has the paso, and looks in trouble. Her odds for bottom two is 1.804/5 but the 3.505/2 lowest score price looks far more inviting. There is an argument to dutch both bets, or maybe use the shorter price as a cover bet, but all the pointers for this Latin don't look great. You need intensity, good arms and elbows, whilst being angry and mean. It's the dance where the woman needs to be in charge, but she is too nicey nicey.

Finally we could be seeing some wires. Kimberley Walsh will be replicating Ann Widecombe's infamous 2010 drop-in according to reports. Her paso is sure to be a lot better than Fern's. as her partner Pasha is very good with this sort of cherography. It's a tough one to pull off, and trades at 5.409/2 for highest score.

And the great news is, Walsh declared this week that Girls Aloud will never split up. Isn't that wonderful.

Week four recommendations:
Back Fern Britton for lowest score @ 3.505/2
Back Denise Van Outen highest score @ 1.9520/21