In-Running Week: Roc remains of interest after Fakenham shambles

There was in-running carnage at Fakenham on Tuesday

In his usual weekly round-up, Neil tackles the big in-running story of the last seven days.

Brendan Powell looked up to the heavens and grimaced. He knew what he had done and probably knew what awaited him. Angry punters and a certain ban. Of course I am talking about the incident in the 13:30 at Fakenham the other day where Powell jumped the fence alongside the finishing line rather that seeing out the race which produced one of those fascinating in-running stories.

Now let us be honest, this isn't the first time this has happened, particularly at Fakenham. Unless the course does something about it soon, it will not be the last either. Now I am the first to say that jockeys should be able to remember the course and how many circuits they have completed but by running a tape across the fence it would stop this happening and stop the pain that some punters will have felt. 

We had two horses (Roc De Guye and Benny The Swinger) trading at 1.01 in defeat, and the winner (Peak Seasons) trading at 1000, but was there anything to be learnt from the debacle? Well I think Roc De Guye is the one to keep an eye on as he has been one paced in a finish before and there was a suggestion here that Adam Wedge hadn't ridden him out but that is the way he ends a lot of his races.

Roc de Guye

James Evans' French-bred seven-year-old seems to enjoy a sharp left-handed track having won twice at Fakenham and once at Stratford. Those are the conditions you should look for to see him pick up another victory but the interesting thing for me with Roc de Guye is that he does tend to be one paced in a finish after travelling well during the majority of his races. Indeed, he has hit half his Betfair Starting Price in the run on 19 of his 24 defeats. That equates to 79% which is an incredibly high strike-rate for a horse who has run 27 times.

Recommendation: Back Roc de Guye pre-race at BSP and then lay out double your stake at half the BSP in the run, unless running at a sharp left-handed course when I would only lay out my stake.

Cymeriad

Mick Easterby's two-year-old filly gets onto the service as I think we could see a bit of her on the all-weather this winter, and particularly at Wolverhampton, as they try to break her maiden tag. In bringing together my two main punting angles, in-running and statistics, I note that Cymeriad has run at Wolverhampton eight times and been placed three times. But in those eight runs she has hit half her BSP six times and a quarter the BSP four times. Connections like to run her at the front (or if the draw is poor close to the pace) but so far she is struggling to see out her races, whether over five, six or seven furlongs.

Recommendation: Back Cymeriad at Wolverhampton pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at half the matched price with further offers at a quarter of the matched price and odds-on.