Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Last McLaren win for Lewis?

Can Lewis edge out Seb?

It's only a hunch - as well as some positive track history - but Ralph Ellis reckons Lewis Hamilton is value for a podium finish in Abu Dhabi this weekend. Could he even go on and win the race?

It started at a dinner and will end around a dinner table too. Lewis Hamilton's career at McLaren famously began when as a ten-year-old Kart champion he approached Ron Dennis at an awards do and told him: "I'm going to drive for your team one day." Some 17 years later they are due at an Abu Dhabi restaurant to ensure that Hamilton's split from the team will end up amicably.

Hamilton has been talking today about the difficulty of parting from the man who was his mentor, and likens it to leaving home: something that has to be done at some time before you completely finish growing up.

But you suspect that the one thing Dennis would really like by way of a parting gift is not a fancy bottle of wine or an extra portion of cheesecake at a posh restaurant. What he would like to see, for one last time, is the boy he turned into a man standing on the number one place of a Grand Prix podium.

Will it happen? Well, the last few weeks have seen Red Bull pretty much lock out the Formula One competition and after four race wins in a row Sebastian Vettel is now 1.232/9 for the Drivers Championship. Not surprisingly, he is odds on at 1.845/6 to make it five by winning this weekend's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Not much value there, which tempts me to wonder if Hamilton 7.87/1 has got a last bit of glory wearing the McLaren racing suit. And I know it can be a mistake to look for signs to justify a bet that's really only a hunch, but there are some possibilities.

For a start, his team mate Jenson Button proved last weekend that the Woking garage is still producing a fast car. Button drove a stunning last circuit in India to take the fastest lap from Vettel by 0.4 of a second and so ruin what was last weekend's value bet, unless you'd already pressed the cash out now button.

By that time Hamilton was also bombing along, having sorted out some issues with the tyres that slowed him down early in the race. This time they will use medium and soft compounds, and McLaren believe they have resolved those problems.

Abu Dhabi is also a circuit where Hamilton has always performed. He set pole in 2009 the first time the race was held, and was leading until forced to retire by a rear brake problem. That was, incidentally, the last time the team failed to get both cars home in the points. In 2010 he was second, and last year cashed in when Vettel's tyre blew out on the opening lap to be a winner.

That record makes odds against for a podium finish for Hamilton at up to 2.285/4 the best value bet of the weekend. And who knows, if he can repeat last year's victory there could be yet another dinner date with Ron Dennis for some celebrations.