Pettis vs. Anjos: Is there value in the Journeyman?

On March 14th, UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis defends his title against UFC mainstay Rafael Dos Anjos. This UFC 185 betting preview looks at factors to consider when betting on Pettis vs. Anjos, and asks whether the long odds on Dos Anjos make him a worthy bet.

Mention “Showtime” and fight fans will instantly know who you’re talking about, and the nickname fits.

Anthony Pettis looks like a star and fights like one, known as much for his highlight reel striking (notably, his famous showtime kick against then-WEC champion Ben Henderson) as for his title.

Ask those same fans about Rafael Dos Anjos’s nickname, and you’ll get blank stares. Dos Anjos doesn’t have a nickname, and brings a far more blue-collar approach to the Octagon.

The Brazilian veteran of 17 UFC fights has an MMA career record of 23-7 (12-5 in the UFC), with only half his wins coming in bouts that didn’t go to the judges scorecards.

He throws and absorbs punches in bunches. By contrast, Pettis is 18-2 for his career, with all but three of his wins by knockout or submission.

It’s safe to say that Pettis has made the stronger impression of the two on the fight community, as seen in our UFC 185 odds.

The case for Pettis

The question bettors need to ask themselves is whether that impression is exaggerated.

Pettis has all the makings of a gut feeling favourite: He’s charismatic, in the spotlight as champion, has been run and re-run in highlight reels and has strung together a series of impressive finishes.

He’s also an American fighting on American soil against a Brazilian and will have the crowd on his side. That all adds up to the market making him the overwhelming 1.250 favourite.

The question is whether Dos Anjos’ can be the tortoise to Pettis’ hare. There are reasons to think Pettis is more than flash.

In the 14 years since the creation of the UFC lightweight division, only six fighters have held the title, and despite being considered amongst the organization’s most competitive divisions, the champions have shown themselves to be tough to dislodge.

Pettis won the championship from Ben Henderson, who had three successful defences after taking the title from Frankie Edgar, who also had three successful defences. In short, this title doesn’t change hands easily.

One more factor in Pettis’ favour is freshness. After winning the title in August 2013, he didn’t fight again until this past December, where he beat Gilbert Melendez in less than 7 minutes of ring time. 27 strikes absorbed in a year and a half isn’t a lot for a guy who makes his living as a fighter.

The case for Dos Anjos

It’s telling that this is Dos Anjos’ first title shot in a 30-fight career and he is subsequently available at 4.600 to win.

The 32-year old had a rough start to his UFC tenure, with two losses at the start contributing to an early 4-4 run. Since then, however, we’ve seen a different fighter.

After losing to countryman Gleison Tibau in 2011, Dos Anjos has gone 8-1, with his only loss coming via decision.

Amongst his eight victories in that time was a first-round knockout of the same Ben Henderson whose one-time belt Pettis now has and five wins by decision.

It’s Dos Anjos’ record in matches that have gone to a decision that should cause a raised eyebrow or two.

Pettis relies on finishes for his victories. Of his 18 triumphs, all but three have ended prematurely, and his record in decisions is just 3-2.

Dos Anjos hasn’t been submitted since 2010 (12 fights ago) or knocked out since 2008 (his first UFC fight) and has an overall decision record of 11-5 (7-2 in UFC).

While judges tend to lean towards reigning champions because the challengers “have to earn it”, there’s a real possibility of Dos Anjos looking good in grinding his way to the judges scorecards.            

The match-up

This fight would be easy to sum up as striker (Pettis) vs. grappler (Dos Anjos), but it’s a little more complex than that. As much as Pettis reputation lies in his hands, he actually has more wins by submission (8) than KO (7).

He tends to go for damage rather than volume with his strikes, enjoying the benefits of his reach, where he has a slight advantage in this fight.

Of the two, Pettis has the slightly better ratio of strikes landed to strikes absorbed, as well as a better rate of strikes landed per attempt (44% to Dos Anjos 39%), but Dos Anjos throws strikes at a greater frequency, landing 2.88 strikes per minute to Pettis’ 2.16.

While Dos Anjos does have two KOs in his last three fights, those were surprises; in all, he has just four KO victories in his career.

The two are completely opposed in some ways when it comes to ground game strategy. Much like the striking, Pettis is reserved and more successful with his takedown attempts, while Dos Anjos attempts almost twice as many takedown attempts with half the efficiency.

Both fighters have good—but not impenetrable—takedown defense. As Dos Anjos’ record indicates, he prefers a smothering approach to ground work, using his BJJ black belt to subdue opponents while seldom going for submissions.

Expect him to be the more aggressive of the two in this fight in trying to close the gap. He has only lost by submission once in his career, when a freak Clay Guida punch injured Dos Anjos’ jaw.

Dos Anjos appears to have some answers to Pettis game. He doesn’t get knocked out or submitted, facing a man who lives by those two methods to victory.

With this fight, Pettis is being asked to triumph as the unstoppable force against Dos Anjos’ immovable object, and the data suggests that, given the long odds, there may be value in betting on Dos Anjos’s suppressive style withstanding the onslaught.

If, however, you think that there’s no way the judges give a Brazilian a decision championship win on US soil, Pettis might be your bet.

Either way, you can find our UFC 185 odds here.