вторник, 10 марта 2015 г.

League Two Betting: Stevenage can continue to climb

Graham Westley has goals in his side, despite injuries

Graham Westley might moan - or not - about Stevenage's injuries caused by other teams, but his side are making good progress anyway says Ian Lamont, who also tips AFC Wimbledon to end their goal drought...

Stevenage 2.35/4 v Newport County 3.65n/a; the draw 3.45n/a

Graham Westley can moan all he likes - and he will - about his side being clobbered by others who build his Stevenage side up to be big and strong, so he perceives they get away with it, as his side gets injured.

But of course it's "not an issue" for him and so he doesn't talk or moan about it. Roarie Deacon, Chris Whelpdale, Charlie Lee, Dean Wells and Bira Dembele were all in the treatment room after the win over Plymouth, with Adam Marriott, Calvin Zola, Darius Charles and Jerome Okimo already sidelined.

Despite all that, the Hertfordshire side have taken 28 points from 16 games, a run which included three straight defeats. That shows that their win ratio apart from that has been high.

The absentees have lead to Ben Kennedy being given his chance up front. Having scored three goals in the past four games he is pressing a firm claim even when everyone is fit.

County, meanwhile, remain a little in limbo despite the fact Justin Edinburgh has left. Jimmy Dack is unsure whether he wants the job full time and the Exiles seem to either win or lose tight matches, with few goals, certainly in their favour.

They have also drawn blanks in six of their past nine games, although defeating Burton and Wycombe on their last two away trips. Stevenage have the bit between their teeth and every incentive to knock them out of the top seven, because they could replace them.

Recommended Bet
Back Stevenage @ 2.35/4

Plymouth 2.35/4 v Northampton 3.711/4; the draw 3.412/5

Ricky Holmes will have been delighted to score against his former club Portsmouth on Tuesday in one of those 'come to back to haunt' stories.

It gave the Cobblers a third straight win to boost their chances of a play-off place even if Chris Wilder did admit that they were pushed all the way by a side who would have felt aggrieved to have lost.

Winners can always say such things. Whatever the words, the visitors appear to have momentum, with Ryan Hackett and returning Ivan Toney both scoring recently, while the division's top scorer Marc Richards waiting for his chance to return, on the subs bench.

Plymouth have not been able to sustain their bid for a play-off spot and have had a bad week, with two defeats, after the tumultuous win at Exeter.

So which team do you think should be the shorter price here? Seems a bit odd that Plymouth are so short compared to the visitors, seeing as Northampton have 16 points from six games and the host have 12. Surely it should be more balanced?

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.55/2

AFC Wimbledon 2.6413/8 v York City 3.02/1; the draw 3.412/5

No goals in 270 minutes - a bit of a worry, screamed the email from the stats man at Kingsmeadow. It's at exactly these kind of times that the Dons pick up points. They remain a side, like the club that grew at Plough Lane, who surprise when you least expect it.

It is a shame they have a consistent habit of not being able to hang on to a striker they have signed on loan for a whole season, highlighting the dangers of relying on that strategy. Matt Tubbs is the latest example, being used for half a season.

But that's where they are as a club, with priorities and energies driven into securing a stadium back at their spiritual home rather than any deliberate attempt to portray themselves as all conquerors in League Two.

Some would like to see Adebayo Akinfenwa paired from the start of games with Adebayor Azeez - the double AA as the forward line emergency service. David Connolly is adding his years of experience and Alfie Potter is starting to shine a little.

They have a good record against York this season, winning at Bootham Crescent in the league after drawing there in the FA Cup and winning the replay.

Russell Wilcox's men have showed signs of life since then, managing to keep themselves out of the relegation zone, but only just. York have not scored in seven of their past 10 games, although they are capable with Wes Fletcher and Michael Coulson and others.

But I think the hosts can snatch victory and they seem a decent price to do so.

Recommended Bet
Back AFC Wimbledon @ 2.6213/8

Hartlepool 4.03/1 v Burton 2.111/10; the draw 3.55/2

In a funny way, Burton might be relieved to be knocked off the top of the division by Shrewsbury's victory on Tuesday. The Brewers didn't win when they rose to the top of the pile, just like many sides before them this season and last. It's a weird statistic that keeps cropping up.

So they will be somewhat keen to overcome two defeats on the spin, at Accrington and against Newport at home by winning at Hartlepool, who again failed to earn back-to-back victories with another defeat in midweek.

A victory once every three games is their recent average and the team in second place are not likely candidates to take points from, given their manager Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink is new to the profession and wants to make an instant impression with promotion.

Adam McGurk has been finding the scoring touch and it seems likely that, after some scrappy wins in the past two months, injury-hit Pools could even be put to the sword by a team who are thoroughly organised and structured and who are geared up for automatic promotion, if not the title. Defender Michael Bates undergoing knee surgery means Pools' problems are mounting.

Recommended Bet
Back Burton @ 2.111/10

P/L 2014-15

-1.19pt

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