Football Bet of the Day: Moves like Jaga can upset illustrious hosts

Home fans might not get the chance to do "The Poznan" tonight

After a maddening setback last night, Kevin Hatchard's looking for an instant response, and he thinks he's found a route back to profit in Poland.

Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia Bialystok
Friday March 06, 19:30

I know just how AaB fans are feeling this morning, as they reflect on how their side managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Danish Cup. Our boys were 2-0 up at Esbjerg at half time, and heading for a place in the semi-finals. We were on course for a decent winner, but then it all went wrong, as the hosts scored four goals in 37 minutes and won 4-2. I don't know any Danish swear words, but they would have come in handy last night.

That one will sting for a while, but we move on. It's high time we checked in on the title race in Poland's Ekstraklasa (I know that's just what you were thinking), and there's a heavyweight clash this evening between third-placed Lech Poznan and second-placed Jagiellonia Bialystok.

Of the two clubs, Lech Poznan are by far the most established, having racked up six league titles since 1983 and five Polish Cups since 1982. The visitors Jagiellonia won the Polish Cup and the Supercup in 2010, but that's about it. Jaga, as they are helpfully known, have never finished higher than fourth in the top flight.

Lech Poznan are trading as 1.574/7 favourites to win tonight, and you could definitely make a case for them to do so. The Railwaymen have won six of their last seven home games in the league, and their only defeat at the INEA Stadion came in the first week of August.

Now, as far sexier people than me have said in the past, here comes the science bit. Jaga have lost just twice on the road all season in the Ekstraklasa, and they have claimed two major scalps on their travels since the winter break. Three weeks ago they won 2-1 at the leaders Legia Warsaw, and they followed that up with a 1-0 victory at Slask Wroclaw, who are fourth.

Before their games against Jaga, Legia had lost just once at home, and Slask hadn't lost at all on home turf, which proves Michal Probierz' men can go to teams with strong home records and get excellent results. On that basis alone, I think that price of 1.574/7 should be opposed, but it's also worth noting that Jaga won the reverse fixture 1-0.

Recommended Bet

Lay Lech Poznan at 1.574/7

2015 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 31

Points Returned: 28.7

P/L: -2.3 points