Do tennis players perform better when knowing they face an elite player in the next round? Understanding this could lead to a potential edge for tennis bettors. We look at player results in the game prior to a big match to see if there's a betting angle.
Like a lower league underdog in the FA Cup, the big 'match' in tennis has a different dynamic to 'normal' tour matches.
Some players thrive, whilst others allow factors - nerves, media attention - they are not used to impact upon their performance.
This previous article looked at the effect of big wins for players, and established that, in general, a 'comedown' affect followed, as players failed to back-up their win.
Another angle for tennis bettors to consider is the match before a potential big clash, where a lower-ranked player knows if he can win, an elite player would be waiting in the next round.
Tennis bettors should be interested to see how these players react? Some will relish the opportunity, while others may feel anxious which could affect their performance in the immediate match.
The Data
The following table analysis the results of ATP players ranked outside the top 50 in the games prior to facing a top 10 player in the next round.
A hypothetical bet of £100 was applied to all matches. Matches where two non-top 50 players both played were not included, so only non-top 50 versus top 50 players were sampled.
Matches with a retirement were also not included, and all prices used were Pinnacle Sports closing odds:
Price Range
<1.50
1.50-1.99
2.00-2.99
3.00+
Overall
Favourites
Underdogs
Matches
9
26
53
87
175
35
140
Wins
6
11
26
19
62
17
45
Win %
66.7
42.3
49.1
21.8
35.4
48.6
32.1
Profit/Loss
-103
-628
1020
-482
-193
-731
538
ROI
-11.4
-24.2
19.2
-5.5
-1.1
-20.9
3.8
It’s clear that there was a negligible effect for players outside the ATP top 50 having a potential meeting with a top 10 opponent in the next round.
A loss of £193 was generated from a stake of £17,500, giving an overall return on investment of -1.1%.
This figure is very similar to the profit on an individual player, showing that in general the market priced these matches correctly.
However, when looking at favourites and underdogs records, the results look very different.
On 35 occasions a player ranked outside the top 50 was a pre-match favourite against a player better ranked, and in these cases, only 17 won, giving a shocking ROI of -20.9%, albeit from a small sample size.
In comparison, underdogs ranked outside the top 50 thrived against better opposition.
Despite a win % of just 32.1, the prices were long enough to generate a profit of £538, and a ROI of 3.8%.
Tennis betting takeaway
Tennis bettors could be forgiven for classing pre-game underdogs outside of the top 50 as the weakest bet. However based on the research above it appears they offer the most value.
With most of these players likely to be ranked well outside the top 50, the statistics indicate the market undervalues these players.
On this basis, tennis bettors would be advised to factor in potential tournament draws into their research when deciding on which player to bet on in a game-by-game basis.
Click here for the latest ATP Tennis betting odds.
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