World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Brazil

Neymar is the star of this Brazil side, but Fred's strength upfront will also be key

South American football expert Jonathan Wilson runs the rule over Brazil and their chances in their home World Cup...

Road to Brazil

Since Luiz Felipe Scolari returned to the manager's position in November 2012, Brazil's form has improved dramatically. In 20 games under him, they've won 16 and drawn two, and they won last summer's Confederations Cup in comprehensive fashion, scoring 14 and conceding three in five games. Their most recent friendly saw them demolish South Africa 5-0.

The Manager

Luis Felipe Scolari is looking to become only the second manager, after the Italian Vittorio Pozzo, to win the World Cup twice. He was in charge of Brazil when they won in Japan and South Korea in 2002, then led Portugal to the semi-finals in 2006. His great strength is his capacity to forge a tight-knit group, at times seemingly valuing players he feels he can trust over more skilful alternatives. Part of that team-building can be to create a siege mentality, which is one of the reasons Scolari can at times appear is boorish: he's quite happy to deflect pressure from his team by drawing it onto himself.

Key men

Neymar is clearly the star, and had an excellent Confederations Cup, cutting in from the left. The most important aspect of this Brazil side, though, is the balance they've achieved. Fred, as a bustling centre-forward who's decent in the air, prevents opposing defences dropping too deep, so there should always be space behind opposing back-lines for Neymar and Hulk, cutting in from the other flank, to capitalise on. Oscar, as the central creator, can drop back and play effectively as a third midfielder, which should prevent the three-quarter area becoming too congested, while the overlapping runs of the two full-backs, Dani Alves on the right and Marcelo on the left, offer width and facilitate Neymar and Hulk's darts inside. The big question mark is whether the two holding midfielders, Paulinho and either Fernandinho or Luiz Gustavo, can adequately cover behind the full-backs when they press on. Certainly it's easy to imagine opponents looking to attack those spaces on the break.

Talking Point

Impressive as Brazil were in the Confederations Cup, they were never really under pressure. In three of the five games, including in the final against Spain, they scored within the first 10 minutes, seemingly riding a wave of patriotic euphoria that began with the raucous singing of the national anthem. Even in the other two games, they were ahead by half-time, and were never behind in the whole tournament. Given the fact that there are likely to be anti-corruption demonstrations beyond the exclusion zones around the grounds, and given the way this tournament is haunted by the ghosts of 1950, when Brazil cruised through their last World Cup only to lose at the last to Uruguay, it may be that the crowd could turn were Brazil to be frustrated on the pitch, bringing the anger of the protests into the grounds. The Confederations Cup simply didn't offer any evidence on that score.

Best Bet

Given the pressures of being at home, and given that, after a relatively simple group, Brazil could face a run to the final of the Netherlands or Chile, England or Italy, Germany or France then Argentina or Spain, they seem far too short at 4.1n/a. They have, after all, exited the last two World Cups in the quarter-finals, so laying Brazil at 4.216/5 seems reasonable.

Value Bet

Neymar is 13.5n/a to win the Golden Boot, which makes a certain sense in that Brazil are likely to play seven games in the tournament and have been high-scoring in over the past two years. A more intriguing option, though, may be Fred, who outscored Neymar at the Confederations Cup, is a major threat at set-pieces and is available at 24.023/1. Five goals in eight domestic games this season suggests he is in reasonable form - albeit three of them came in the Cup. Or, even longer, there's Hulk at 60.059/1, which seems very long for a player who scored 17 goals in 24 league games for Zenit last season and could capitalise if opposing sides are distracted by Neymar.

Did You Know?

Brazil are taking part in their 20th World Cup. They are the only team to have taken part in every single tournament.

Big Saturday Multiple: Varbergs value with home advantage

Varbergs meet Assyriska in the Swedish second tier today

Jonno Turner casts his eye across the continent as he looks to put three winning tips together in his Big Saturday Multiple...

Sweden is the venue for the first pick of this three team multiple, as Varbergs line up on home turf against Assyriska, keen to continue their unbeaten run in front of their own fans.

The hosts head into this clash sitting sixth in the Superettan, and, with a game in hand on their nearest rivals, have a real opportunity to leapfrog their neighbours if they can secure maximum points here.

Half a dozen without defeat at the Paskbergsvallen, consisting four wins and two draws, will have Jorgen Walemark's charges confident ahead of this fixture, and, in the bigger picture, that makes nine undefeated from 11 encounters home and away.

Visitors Assyriska make this trip occupying 15th place in the second tier - two points inside the relegation zone - and will be desperate to play their way out of the mire.

But no wins in seven sees the away side at something of a low ebb, and, without even a goal scored in their last four, it appears that they are lacking a little cutting edge.

It's now three games since Fredrik Samuelsson's side tasted victory on the road, and just two wins since June last year away from the Sodertalje Fotbollsarena - a barren run stretching 13 outings - suggests that they might struggle here.

Bet 1: Varbergs (HOME) @ 2.15n/a

We're eyeing an international friendly now, as two teams in the final throes of their warm-ups for the World Cup - Portugal and Greece - meet at the Estadio Nacional.

The Portuguese head into this clash keen to continue their impressive form of late - and a 5-1 thrashing of Cameroon in a similar friendly earlier this month underlines just how seriously the hosts take these games.

Paulo Bento's side have remained unbeaten in 11 of their last 12, notching a whopping nine goals in their last four - and the last thing that they'll want is to suffer a loss this close to the tournament.

Visitors Greece travel to Oeiras without a win in two, and in their last outing of this nature they fell to a rather underwhelming 2-0 defeat against Korea Republic.

Fernando Santos' charges have a decent record on the road, but have not played many of Portugal's quality, and with two more friendlies against Nigeria and Bolivia next week, it might not be a priority to put everything into this one.

I reckon that, in Portugal's final home outing before they jet off to their American training camp next week, they'll be keen to put on a morale-boosting display - and, with home advantage, I expect them to do just that.

Bet 2: Portugal (HOME) @ 1.654/6

Focusing our attentions on some final day action in the Czech Liga now - where bottom side Znojmo face a do or die home tie with Dukla Praha.

The hosts head into this one cut adrift at the foot of the table, with two points separating them from safety, and with this the final game of the season, it makes a win even more valuable for Leos Kalvoda's side.

Yes, their form hasn't been the best of late - but in front of their own fans, their record actually isn't all bad - and just a single loss from six, including a 4-1 thrashing of Slovan Liberec last time out, will have them confident of launching a great escape.

Visitors Dukla have no drop zone worries themselves, sitting eighth in the table, but their form has been miserable of late, and just a pair of wins from 14 makes it clear just how bad they've been.

Indeed, their form away from Stadion Juliska isn't much better, and six losses from seven on the road points to a real travel sickness within Lubo Kozel's squad.

The Prague side's final league position will not be affected by the outcome of this encounter, and so I'd question their motivation going into a clash which their hosts simply must win.

Bet 3: Znojmo (HOME) @ 2.05n/a

Please note: Prices quoted are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

Dan Weston Q&A Transcript

Dan Weston Q&A Transcript

By Gary Wise May 30, 2014

Tweet

On May 28th, 2014, Pinnacle Sports handed the reigns for its official twitter account over to tennis columnist/analyst Dan Weston. A professional who’s been referenced in numerous mainstream media outlets, Weston took questions from our followers to help share his practices and contribute to their education. Below, find the transcript of what transpired (with multiple-tweet questions and answers consolidated into one, and hashtags/excess account names removed):

Dan Weston (DW): Hello everyone, I’m ready for your questions! Anything in tennis, betting and trading in-play is good for you to ask. I’ll take some article suggestions too!

Q1. from earlier in the week: Recently, a follower suggested of tennis betting “Stats mean little compared to who brings their game & better adjusts to opposition strength/weakness.” How do you respond to that assessment?

DW: First of all, it’s very player dependant. There are some players who, when they have an off day, are still good enough to win. A player like Carla Suarez-Navarro has an excellent record of winning when a heavy favorite, so she’ll get the job done against an inferior player, while some other players aren’t as good in those situations.There are a lot of situational factors there to investigate. Match-up issues, how players deal with left-handers, big serve etc. It’s not as black and white as the questions suggests. It’s about getting objective analysis rather than subjective. #pinnacle

Q2. from @_GreekWay_: You are involved in trading so do you thing you can trade on @PinnacleSports ? Also do stats always say the truth?

DW: The stats always say the truth. Stats are the best means of analysis IMO. They give a strong overview of a match-up.

Q3. from @frankbutcher76: Apart from your own Dan, which are the best sites for getting stats and the latest news?

DW: I actually find the ATP website is very good for general stats. Much better than WTA. I also find Twitter excellent for news because you can search for a player and come up with all the info you need.

Q4. from @Jdemz: Do you ever live trade off watching a match and have a feel on how it’s going to play out. Or is it all stats?

DW: The simple answer is no. I don’t want to bias my view and find stats are the best way to get a fair assessment.

Q5. from @FootyBetproTips: What is the best live scoreboard to use for trading tennis ? I find I am always way to far behind.

DW: The best one I’ve found is Flashscores. It’s still not super quick. I’m always looking for something faster, though Flashscores’ point by point histories are great.

Q6. from @Dennis7menace: Some times the odds don’t reflect the ranking of the players and their history? What is the reason behind that?

DW: I find ranking is useful as a benchmark, but you need to understand ability varies greatly from surface to surface. Someone like Pironkova can play player X on clay, but be a favourite on grass.

Q7. from @cartermoore100 Dan. Are there any really good sites out there you would recommend for stats like matchstat or heavy topspin.

DW: I use so many sites its hard to endorse one. Amongst those I use are Tennis Insight, Flashscores and oddsportal.

Q8. from @dboy03: What makes clay courts so diff from the rest? Are great clay court players an even higher favorite than normal?

DW: Good question. Simple answer is yes. Clay exaggerates the difference; slowing the game down lowers variance. You may have just inspired a future article:)

Q9. from @Cartermoore: Are there certain handicappers or writes on tennis you read.

DW: I don’t have a set list, I like to listen to broad opinions, but ultimately trust my own.

Q10. from @Frada_Felcher: what % hold do you guys try to keep in your futures market for majors? Is it smaller than regular ATP/WTA events?

DW: My analysis isn’t Pinnacle’s and Pinnacle’s isn’t mine. You’ll have to ask them that:) #Pinnacle

Q11. from @FootyBetProTips: Thanks, who is your fav for the woman’s french open title now then ? Pretty wide open now Serena has gone out.

DW: Good question:) Based on numbers, the top two favs in the market are justified. Tough to look past Sharapova.

Q12. from @_GreekWay_: If you follow stats how much more likely it is to come a profitable bettor or trader?

DW: As long as it’s the right stats and the right analysis, it has to help. Stats eliminate bias.

Q13. from @bendjaminwright: What data do you look at when compiling hold % on a per match basis?

DW: I look at service, hold and break %s for each player on a given surface.

I also look at court speed and service hold %s from events at that venue.

Q14. from @AlexvanWrinkled: Dan, Do you prefer pork scratchings or crisps with a pint? #Pinnacle

DW: I’m on a diet, so neither:) #Pinnacle

Q15. from @MarbleousQ: I accept that Pinnacle’s moneyline tennis rules are first set complete. Would Pinnacle consider offering a choice of rules (similar to in baseball with listed pitchers or action)?

DW: The short answer is that bookmakers in general should be consistent and offer the same rules. I like Pinnacle’s best because I find them the fairest solution and the most commonly accepted.

Q16. from @bendjaminwright: Do you use Oncourt or a similar database?

DW: I don’t use Oncourt (nothing against it)…just don’t need it for what I do. A lot of the stats I use are available there though. I’ve harvested all of my own in-play data.

Q17. From @_GreekWay_: How easy is it to oppose one of the top 5 players when stats suggest so? I find it hard.

DW: No, not if the numbers are there to do it. Trust the math:)

Q18.  From @cartermoore100: do you trade in other markets besides tennis?

DW: No, tennis takes up too much of my time to focus properly on other sports. Research is serious business.

Q19. from email: The tennis (and betting) world was rocked today with Serena’s early #FrenchOpen exit. Did you see it coming?

DW: Truthfully, no. She probably hasn’t played at her usual level, but she’s usually so much better than everyone else that even when not playing at her fittest, she’s usually reliable. Still, I took another look and found some interesting stats:

2013: 83.5% hold, 53.4% break 136.9% combined, 95% W-L%

2014: 82.6% hold, 48.5% break 131.1% combined 87% W-L%

Clearly, from these numbers, we see that she’s already declined this season.

DW: Many thanks for all the questions! It’s been a lot of fun chatting with everybody! Good luck betting French Open. If you have any article requests, let me know at @tennisratings. Always looking for fodder:)

Want to ask our experts similar questions to help get ready for World Cup? Now’s your chance! Read how here: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/05-2014/world-cup-twitter-chat.aspx

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

The time is now for Aston Villa

It is time for Paul Lambert to take Aston Villa forward

Aston Villa have struggled in the past two years and we feel it is time for them to become the club we all know they can be again.

Aston Villa manager Paul Lambert has, justifiably, been given more time than most to deliver success to his club but, after two seasons at the helm, he must start to show real progress early in 2014/15 if he is to stay in his job for much longer. 

Whilst the club may not yet be ready to challenge for Europe, Villa fans will at least expect a strong mid-table finish without the anxiety of another relegation battle.

Villa finished last season in 15th place on 38 points, only mathematically securing survival with a 3-1 victory over Hull in early May. That was their only win in their last eight games. In 2012/13, Lambert's side flirted similarly closely with relegation, again finishing in 15th position, but actually amassing three points more than they managed in 2013/14. 

Whilst neither of the last two seasons have been disastrous for the club, they haven't shown great promise either, and there seems to be little optimism amongst Villa fans that next season will be any better.

Despite the disappointing finish, last season showed potential to be a success for Villa, with the club recording a number of famous results including picking up wins against Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea, as well as drawing with Liverpool. 

For much of the campaign the Villains rested in lower-mid table, with relegation only really becoming a consideration as their form dipped dramatically from late March onwards.

Villa's downturn in form coincided with turmoil off the field, as their assistant manager Ian Culverhouse and head of football operations Gary Karsa were both suspended in April amid accusations that the atmosphere at the club had become 'poisonous'. 

The exact reason for the backroom suspensions remains unclear but Lambert was supportive of the decision and it was clear that his relationship with two of his longest serving colleagues had broken down. 

This off-the-field turmoil has only been added to by Randy Lerner's decision to put the club up for sale. The prospect of a new owner only makes it even more imperative for Lambert to show real progress both on, and off the field.

Perhaps one 'green shoot' for Aston Villa is the emergence of a number of quality young players under Lambert's watch. More out of necessity than choice Lambert was forced to turn to academy products like Nathan Baker and Ciaran Clark to shore up his defence and to give young English talent like Fabian Delph, Ashley Westwood and Marc Albrighton extended runs in the team. 

Now, with a significant number of first team games under their belts, these players could be Aston Villa's bedrock for years to come and they will only get better with age. 

If Villa are to make strides forward next season then they must be willing to invest; the first area for attention is their defence. Villa conceded 61 goals last season, the highest number of any team outside the bottom three, and shipped three goals or more on seven occasions (all of which occurred from November onwards). 

At the other end of the field, Lambert must ensure that he keeps hold of Christian Benteke who, despite injury, will no doubt attract attention again this summer. The Belgian's link with Andreas Weimann had started to show real promise in 2013/14 and it must be allowed to flourish if Villa are to progress up the table.

Having arrived at Aston Villa two years ago, Paul Lambert must now start to take the club forward. 

If the Scot can keep hold of his star players, continue to develop the club's youngsters and invest wisely in the right areas of the field then he may be in with a chance of breaking into the top 10. 

Vital to any progress, however, will be a re-think of the club's ethos and culture. The backroom suspensions must be the first step in improving the atmosphere and feel of Aston Villa. 

Making these changes will undoubtedly prove to be a tall order for Lambert but if he fails to deliver them then he will do well to hold on to his job much into the new season.

World Cup 2014 Team Guide: England

Danny Welbeck is 11.0 to finish as top England scorer

England go in to the tournament with the lowest expectation levels for many years but, in his debut piece for Betting.Betfair ahead of reporting from Brazil for us, Matt Stanger argues there may be some value in backing Hodgson's men for early success...

Road to Brazil

With a goal difference bettered only by the Netherlands in UEFA qualifying, it initially seems that England's campaign was a walk in the park. That was certainly true of turkey shoots against Group H minnows Moldova and San Marino, but Ukraine and Montenegro proved much trickier tests, with the former finishing just a point behind Roy Hodgson's side.

England required a late Frank Lampard penalty to rescue a 1-1 draw with Ukraine in their second match, and the same scoreline was replicated in tight affairs away to Poland and Montenegro. An uninspiring stalemate in Kiev, which saw Rickie Lambert make his competitive debut in Wayne Rooney's absence, piled the pressure on Hodgson as the public's demand to see more attacking football intensified.

Andros Townsend was on the bench that evening, but stepped into the starting line-up to answer Hodgson's and the nation's call in the final two fixtures. The Tottenham winger will miss the main event in Brazil through injury, but starred with a goal on his debut in the 4-1 rout of Montenegro at Wembley and impressed again as England secured top spot with a 2-0 win over Poland four days later.

Hodgson's plans have changed significantly since the end of the qualifying campaign, with the manager making seven changes to the squad that saw off Montenegro and Poland in October. Michael Carrick and Tom Cleverley paid for Manchester United's poor season, while Kyle Walker joined Townsend on the injury list. Raheem Sterling and Jordan Henderson are two of the players who have been promoted and both are tipped to play important roles in Brazil.

The Manager

This is Roy Hodgson's second World Cup after he took Switzerland to USA '94. The 66-year-old enjoyed an impressive tournament with the Swiss, thrashing Argentina's eventual conquerors Romania 4-1 in the group stage before losing to Spain in the last 16.

Hodgson will be hoping to go further with England, of course, and his preparation has been encouraging. Sports psychiatrist Dr Steve Peters, who contributed to Liverpool's success this season, has joined the squad for the tournament and will hopefully help to solve the Three Lions' penalty woes. 

The manager's eagerness to embrace modern methods has also been demonstrated by his use of sports scientists in the recent training camp in Portugal. Each player's individual nutrition needs were monitored as the squad attempted to recreate sweltering conditions in Manaus by training in winter clothing.

"The stuff with the sweat tests I have not experienced before," said Leighton Baines. "It is about ticking all the boxes and put us in the best place we can be, so we are prepared for everything."

There have been questions over Hodgson's perceived lack of adventure in his tactics, but the manager's pragmatism has worked before in tournament settings. He guided Internazionale to the UEFA Cup final in 1997 and repeated the feat with Fulham in 2010, although both teams finished as runners-up - not that England would mind that result in Brazil.

Having managed 16 teams in eight different countries, Hodgson has a wealth of knowledge about the game and is renowned for his studious nature and judicious approach to management. However, he can also be stern when necessary, as Jack Wilshere has previously revealed: "At half-time Roy likes to shout more, trying to motivate us, which I like. The rest of the time he's pretty relaxed, so it's a nice mix."

Key Men

Despite failing to find the net in eight matches over the 2006 and 2010 World Cups, Wayne Rooney remains one of England's most important players and will be looking to break his duck in Brazil. "The last few tournaments haven't gone great for me," said Rooney recently. "I just want to show that I can do well at this level because it's something I haven't been able to do before."

If the Manchester United forward fails to fire, Daniel Sturridge could prove to be a vital alternative in attack. The 24-year-old enjoyed his most impressive season to date in the Premier League, notching 21 goals, although he managed only two strikes in his last six matches following a hamstring injury.

Hodgson is keen to pair Rooney and Sturridge together in England's warm-up games, while there are calls for the manager to try and recreate Liverpool's attacking style. Continuing the Anfield theme, Steven Gerrard's role at the base of midfield will be pivotal to England's chances of getting out of the group.  

The pace of Raheem Sterling and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain could also be crucial towards the end of matches as England's opponents start to tire. 

Talking Point

As well as Rooney's struggles on the biggest stage, England could face problems in defence, where a lack of tournament experience is a concern. Ashley Cole immediately retired from international duty after he was omitted from the squad and Baines has much to prove as his replacement in the first XI.

Another issue for Hodgson to address is whether he chooses to start Sterling following the 19-year-old's superb end to the season with Liverpool. If he shows caution and selects James Milner ahead of Sterling for the opening match against Italy, then Hodgson is likely to attract plenty of criticism.

Possibly the most significant talking point regarding England comes from outside the Three Lions' camp. There is a lot riding on Luis Suarez's fitness race in Group D, and Hodgson will no doubt be keeping his fingers crossed that the striker doesn't make a full recovery from his knee injury in time for England's clash with Uruguay on June 19th. 

Not much has been said about penalties at this stage, but as always, there is a good chance we'll be crying about them at the end. You can get 10.09/1 about England being eliminated via a shootout.

Best Bet

There isn't the usual level of expectation surrounding England's chances in Brazil, but 3.45n/a on Roy Hodgson's side to top Group D should tempt optimistic souls such as myself, with the 2.56/4 on them remaining unbeaten for the three games also worth considering. It shouldn't be forgotten that Italy finished bottom of a group that contained New Zealand, Slovakia and Paraguay in 2010, while Uruguay required a play-off against Jordan to reach this summer's tournament. Meanwhile, England haven't lost a group stage match at the World Cup since a 2-1 defeat to Romania in 1998. 

Considering the sweaty conditions in Manaus, odds of around 3.02/1 on the draw in the opener v Italy are worth a punt or, if you're looking for a bit more juice in the price, the 7.06/1 on 0-0 correct score looks fair.

Value Bet

England's chances in Brazil are summed up by Wayne Rooney and Daniel Sturridge being listed at around 60.059/1 to win the Golden Boot. Even at those prices, most will probably ignore England's strikers in the top-scorer stakes, but my fancy is tickled by Danny Welbeck to be the team's leading marksman at around 11.010/1. The forward is a favourite of Hodgson and has a decent record of eight strikes in 21 caps.

Rooney to score first in a draw against Italy is priced at 25/1 on the Sportsbook Wincast market, and it would be just like England to get everyone's hopes up before snatching them away again.

Did You Know?

Wayne Rooney has more competitive goals for England (28) than any other player, with Michael Owen (26) and Gary Lineker (22) next in line.

World Cup players to watch

Mesut Ozil burst on to the scene at the 2010 World Cup, who will do that this year?

The World Cup always brings some players to the fore, in 1986 Gary Lineker's performance got him a move to Barcelona. Who will shine this time around?

The World Cup is the ideal marketplace for managers looking to make quality additions to their squad. After their performances in 2010, Mesut Ozil and Sami Khedira were both snapped up by Real Madrid, Asamoah Gyan earned himself a move to Sunderland, and Winston Reid also secured a move to the Premier League, joining West Ham.
So, who are the players to look out for in terms of post-World Cup moves this summer? 

Mathew Ryan - Australia

The 22-year-old goalkeeper has already been lavished with praise, with former Manchester United shot-stopper Mark Bosnich describing Ryan's technical ability as "fantastic".

Currently with Club Brugge in Belgium, the youngster has been linked to a whole host of clubs, most notably Real Madrid. With the Socceroos competing with Chile, Holland and Spain this summer, you would expect Ryan to be kept extremely busy, which in turn should allow the goalkeeper to shine.

A good showing from him and it is all but guaranteed that he will be moving to one of Europe's elite leagues during the summer transfer window.

Bernard - Brazil

The diminutive Brazilian winger was attracting interest from numerous top-flight European clubs last summer, before moving to Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk.

The winger is rumoured to be unsettled due to the political unrest in Ukraine and is hankering for a move, which has alerted Premier League duo Arsenal and Liverpool.

If Bernard can prove himself and help Brazil to a successful World Cup on home soil, then expect the 21-year-old to be highly sought after this summer.

Serge Aurier - Ivory Coast

The Elephants have always struggled defensively but in Serge Aurier they have a right back of the highest order. The Toulouse defender has already been subject to Arsenal's overtures but no deal has been finalised yet. Despite being just 21, he is extremely experienced, with 117 appearances in the French top-flight.

Alongside Kolo Toure and Didier Zokora, Aurier will be vital at the back if Ivory Coast are to progress to the last-16 for the first time in their history. If they do, expect Arsenal to swoop as he is a ready-made replacement for Manchester City bound Bacary Sagna.

William Carvalho - Portugal

The Sporting Lisbon winger has been courted by Manchester United all season, and Liverpool are now reported to have joined the race for his signature.

Despite having just two caps for his country the 22-year-old should feature quite prominently for Portugal. His speed, trickery and penchant for goals make him too difficult to ignore and he could keep Nani out of the starting XI.

If Carvalho does replicate his club form for his country then expect Manchester United, as well as other European clubs, to activate his 37.5million release clause.

Memphis Depay - Holland

Another player who has recently been linked to Manchester United, Memphis Depay is currently the hottest prospect in Dutch football.

The 20-year-old has had a fruitful season for PSV, scoring 12 goals in 32 appearances from the left wing position. Current Dutch manager and soon to be United boss, Luis van Gaal, is a huge fan of the youngster and handed him his first ever international cap.

Depay will not be used sparingly in this highly talented Dutch side and if he can reproduce his Eredivisie performances in Brazil, then expect other clubs to rival Manchester United to sign a player rated at 17million.

Costa Rica v Uruguay Odds: Luis Suarez's knee brings concern

Keep an eye on Luis Suarez's knee when betting on this game

The words 'Costa Rica' still sends shivers down the spines of Scottish football fans, but should Uruguay be worried? Neil Monnery thinks so...

Costa Rica v Uruguay
June 14, 20:00 BST
TV: ITV

Group D opens up with Costa Rica and Uruguay facing off and while most English fans will be waiting three hours to watch Roy's men make their 2014 World Cup bow, this game is important as any dropped points for Uruguay will be a huge bonus to England.

Uruguay struggled to qualify for the tournament despite being ranked as the sixth best team in world football according to FIFA. They are the seeded team in this group. If that seems mad then Portugal are ranked as the third best team in the world and they too needed a playoff where they scraped home in the battle of the star strikers, Cristiano Ronaldo out-dueling Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

In the only game since punching their ticket to the tournament, Uruguay failed to beat 40th ranked Austria. Just who are the real Uruguay? They have these star strikers in Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani but they seem to not be living up to their star billing elsewhere in the squad. We also don't know about the health of Liverpool star Suarez, who has a knee injury but insists he'll be fine.

34th-ranked Costa Rica are no pushovers and beat South American opposition in March when they downed Paraguay in San Jose. While Uruguay have Suarez and Cavani to call on, Costa Rica will be getting behind Arsenal youngster Joel Campbell and Fulham forward Bryan Ruiz to lead their line.

All logic dictates that Uruguay will win this match but that huge question mark over the health of Luis Suarez, coupled with their poor recent form and for those of you who don't like to back teams who are heavy odds-on then this might be the game for you. 

Recommended Bet:

Back The Draw at 4.67/2

World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Germany

Can Germany finally win a tournament under Jogi Low?

Germany have a consistent recent record at major tournaments, but haven't managed to go all the way under manager Joachim Low. Regular Bundesliga columnist Kevin Hatchard believes they can at least reach the semi-finals in Brazil.

Road to Brazil

As expected, Germany booked their 16th consecutive appearance at the World Cup Finals (Opta tell us only Brazil have competed in more) in fine style. They won nine of their 10 qualifying matches, scoring 36 goals and finishing eight points clear of second-placed Sweden.

The game Germany didn't win was a source of alarm, as they somehow blew a 4-0 lead against the Swedes in Berlin, and were held to a barely believable 4-4 draw. Such a shocking defensive collapse did little to dispel the notion that for all their flowing football, Germany have a soft centre.

The Manager

Bundestrainer Joachim Low spent two years as Jurgen Klinsmann's assistant, before taking the reins in 2006. The 54-year-old has led his country at three major tournaments, and has reached at least the semi-finals in all of them. He recently had his contract extended to include the European Championships in 2016, but failure to reach at least the semis in Brazil may spark an early exit.

Low likes to play exciting, attacking football, but he must now prove that his playing style can win a tournament. He is popular with German fans, but he has persistent critics in the media, who have questioned his tactics and highlighted his failure to shore up a leaky defence. Although Low appears relaxed and genial, he can be demanding, and he has issued a few stark wake-up calls to players in the build-up to the tournament.

Key Men

Germany have some of the world's most sought-after players at their disposal. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer is rightly regarded as one of football's top custodians. The 28-year-old has helped Bayern Munich to win the Champions League, the Bundesliga, the German Cup and the Club World Cup, and Opta tell us that no keeper in Germany had a better save percentage (80%) this season. He commands his box superbly, and has largely eradicated his tendency to make rash decisions. His shoulder injury is expected to clear up before the opening game against Portugal.

Captain Philipp Lahm is on track to recover from an ankle injury he sustained in the German Cup final, and he is vital to Germany's progress. Bayern boss Pep Guardiola has described the 30-year-old as the most intelligent player he has ever worked with, which is some compliment when you consider the glittering array of talent Guardiola has coached. Lahm is a great leader, has boundless energy, passes accurately, is a strong tackler, and is more creative than some give him credit for. Lahm has seamlessly adapted to a new role as a central midfielder this season, but may well revert to his more familiar position of right-back for Germany. Much will depend on the injury situation in central midfield - Bastian Schweinsteiger has struggled with a series of problems, while Lars Bender and Ilkay Gundogan are both sidelined.

One man who may step into the midfield breach is Sami Khedira. Despite a six-month lay-off with a serious knee injury, Khedira returned to start the Champions League final, helping Real Madrid to be crowned as European champions for the tenth time. He needs more match practice to be back to his best, but he is fresh, and his ball-winning ability could provide an important platform for the more creative players in front of him.

Germany have lots of firepower. Borussia Dortmund forward Marco Reus finished the season in great form, was named Bundesliga Player of the Year by his fellow professionals, and ended up with 23 goals and 17 assists in all competitions.

Mesut Ozil and Mario Gotze had fluctuating seasons at club level but can still unlock elite defences, while Thomas Muller's excellent movement and sheer will to win make him a genuine goal threat.

36-year-old warhorse Miroslav Klose is just one goal short of Ronaldo's World Cup Finals record of 15, but it remains to be seen whether recent injuries will restrict his involvement.

Talking Point

There have been plenty of column inches devoted to Germany's persistent injury woes, but several off-field incidents have also caught the eye. Manager Low was recently banned from driving because of persistent speeding offences, while utility player Kevin Grosskreutz has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. First he was accused of throwing a kebab at a Cologne fan on a night out (it's not known if Joe Kinnear then tried to sign the kebab), and he was then spotted urinating in a hotel lobby after Dortmund's German Cup final defeat to Bayern Munich.

Just a few days ago, Schalke team-mates Benedikt Howedes and Julian Draxler were passengers in a car accident. They were taking part in a promotional event alongside F1 star Nico Rosberg, and one of the cars in the shoot (driven by DTM star Pascal Wehrlein) injured two pedestrians who weren't expected to be on a closed course. The accident is still being investigated, and although the players involved weren't hurt, it would be surprising if such a serious incident didn't have some kind of impact on the squad.

Best Bet

Germany are currently 7.413/2 in the Winner market, with only Brazil and Argentina a shorter price. They are 1.654/6 to win Group G, with Portugal, Ghana and the USA their opponents. That's a bit too short for my liking, as much depends on that opening game against Paulo Bento's men. If Cristiano Ronaldo is on top form (I'm thinking of that ridiculous hat-trick against Sweden), then Germany's fragile rearguard will be sorely tested.

However, even if Germany make a slow start, they will be too strong for Ghana and the USA. Once they are in the knockout stage, that's when they really come into their own. It's hard to ignore Germany's recent tournament record, as they have reached the semi-finals in the last three World Cups and the last two European Championships. They have a strong squad bristling with attacking talent, and despite doubts over their defensive solidity, I think their price of 2.265/4 to reach the semi-finals is perfectly reasonable.

Value Bet

Given Marco Reus' superb end to the domestic season, and the fact that he was the second-highest scorer in European qualifying with seven goals, I'm surprised to see him trading at 65.064/1 in the Golden Boot Award (top scorer - the market goes to assists in the event of a dead heat) market. I'd expect him to start for Germany ahead of Lukas Podolski on the left of the attack, and a scoring start to the tournament will see that price plummet.

Thomas Muller scored five goals to win the Golden Boot in South Africa in 2010, and he's also a hefty price at 36.035/1 to top the scoring charts.

Kevin is a Bundesliga commentator for talkSPORT and TuneIn Radio. You can follow him on Twitter @kevinhatchard

Did You Know?

Germany scored more goals than any other team during the European qualification phase (36), also recording the best minutes-per-goal rate (one every 25 minutes).

Against All Odds: Sao Paulo and Atletico MG to entertain

Lus Fabiano still knows where the goal is

There's a fantastic match taking place in Brazil tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that we'll be in for at least three goals when Sao Paulo host Atletico MG.

Sao Paulo v Atletico MG
Saturday May 31, 22:30 BST
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video  

Sao Paulo are beginning to look a touch more consistent again under Muricy Ramalho following the managerial merry-go-round that was last season. The three times Copa Libertadores winners are in eighth place after eight fixtures, having lost only once. The negative has been the amount of draws - four in total - but at least they haven't been getting beaten and they showed huge resolve to twice come back from behind at Atletico PR on Wednesday.

That 2-2 draw was their fourth match this term to go over 2.5 goals and their second in their last three outings. A 1-0 victory over Gremio was sandwiched between the midweek game and a 5-2 defeat at Fluminense, so it would appear that 'Tricolor' are opening up more of late. If we look solely at their results in front of their own fans, we can see that two of their four league matches have had at least three goals - as did their two Copa do Brasil home fixtures.

Atletico MG are two places above tonight's opponents in sixth, but there's only a point between them. After a shaky start that saw them take just one point from a possible nine, Levir Culpi, has started to correct come of the mistakes that out-going boss, Paulo Autuori, had made during his four and  a half months at the club.

Mineiro have won four of their last five matches and that includes a  notable victory over reigning champions, Cruzeiro, as well as impressive away wins at Santos and Vitoria BA. All three of those games went over 2.5 goals and while their two most recent ones went under, they were both at home. All of their matches on the road this year have had three goals or more, with both teams scoring each time.

This should be a classic between two powerhouses of Brazilian football. The statistics point to goals, so with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.8810/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Sao Paulo v Atletico MG @ 1.8810/11 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 147 pts
Returned: 161.16 pts
P/L: + 14.16 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Netherlands

Robin van Persie was the top scorer in European qualifying

The 2010 runners-up are a distant joint-11th in the World Cup winner betting this year at 38.037/1. Michael Lintorn ponders whether the pessimism is justified...

Road to Brazil

The Netherlands are to qualifying processes what altar regular and World Cup 2014 theme song singer Jennifer Lopez (see there is a vague topical link) is to wedding planners: ambitious, prolific and a constant source of joy. They have bossed their last three, winning 26 out of 28 games.

Their road to Brazil was paved with nine victories, a draw and 34 goals in ten fixtures. Those figures made them Europe's most successful qualifiers in terms of results and second-highest scorers after Germany.

They netted two or more in every encounter, and four or more in four, while their sole stutter was a 2-2 away draw with Estonia once it was already obvious that they were heading through. Admittedly, their Group D rivals weren't too fierce: Romania, Hungary, Turkey, Estonia and Andorra.

The Manager

In the unlikely event that you weren't familiar with Louis van Gaal before, you certainly will be now given the media coverage devoted to the news that he will coach Man United next season, 13 years on from first being discussed as a successor to Sir Alex Ferguson when he nearly retired in 2001/02.

Everything about the 62-year-old screams box office: he demands attractive football, loves sculpting new stars, argues with the media, is immensely quotable and quarrel-prone too. Most importantly, he is a winner, earning league titles for all four of his clubs, and a Champions League too at Ajax.

For all his club joy, van Gaal had a point to prove when appointed Dutch boss in 2012, having spent over a year out of work following a bitter departure from Bayern Munich, and endured arguably his worst moment in management in his first Oranje stint, failing to qualify for World Cup 2002.

Key men

The most valid voice in answering this question is the coach's, and van Gaal often stated in qualifying that his three untouchables were Kevin Strootman, Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie.

Strootman will miss the tournament through injury and, though the least high-profile of the trio, the Roma midfielder was perhaps the most integral due to the lack of top-quality alternatives. His absence has been so problematic as to prompt van Gaal to trial an out-of-character 5-3-2 formation.

It is therefore difficult to avoid the conclusion that van Persie inherits main-man billing, a precarious situation given that he started just 14 of Man United's final 43 matches in 2013/14. However, the striker delivers consistently when he is fit, leading European qualifying with 11 goals.

Talking Point

Are the Netherlands being hugely underestimated at 38.037/1, having reached the final four years ago when similarly overlooked by many?

Or, is the price right - they blew their opening in 2010 when Brazil and Argentina were weaker, the likes of Wesley Sneijder, Nigel de Jong and Dirk Kuyt have deteriorated since, and van Gaal's emerging talents like Bruno Martins Indi, Jordy Clasie and Memphis Depay aren't quite ready yet?

Another intriguing subplot is determining the ideal outcome for Man United. The earlier the Netherlands exit, the more time van Gaal will have to get to work at Old Trafford, but if it is too soon, it will instantly create a bad impression.

Best Bet

Netherlands to qualify from Group B @ 1.684/6 - They are right to be wary of tangling with Spain, Chile and Australia, primarily because Chile have been very impressive over the past 12 months, yet the prospect of group-stage elimination has been overhyped as a consequence.

The Oranje have an exceptional record for going deep into the competition, progressing to three finals and a semi-final in seven participations since World War Two and always clearing their group. Five points - obtainable via draws with Spain and Chile and a triumph over Australia - should do.

Value Bet

Netherlands to beat Spain (draw no bet) @ 3.412/5 - They resisted Spain for 115 minutes when the world champions were at their peak in South Africa and are undefeated against them in regulation time across their last five collisions.

Spain aren't the sharpest starters, even in their modern domination mode, losing to Switzerland in their World Cup 2010 opener and being outplayed and held by Italy in their Euro 2012 curtain-raiser, so meeting on day two of the tournament could assist the Netherlands.

Did You Know?

Only Germany (16) scored more goals than the Netherlands (12) during World Cup 2010.

French Open Women's Betting: Kvitova eyes fourth round berth

Can Kvitova keep her 100% record against Kuznetsova?

The third round concludes in Paris on Saturday, and Abelson Info evaluate which stars will take a step closer to the second week of action...

With the top half of the draw beginning to take shape, attention switches to the bottom half on Saturday as a whole host of top names look to extend their stay in the French capital.

Amongst that pack of potential candidates for the title is Ana Ivanovic, who has undoubtedly found some solid form this year and will be desperate to add to her success here back in 2008.

The Serbian star has been relatively comfortable thus far, and looking at the draw she knows she has a great opportunity to make an extended run despite it being predictably tough.

However, she won't be looking beyond her next opponent, Lucie Safarova, who she has struggled against in the past having lost the last four meetings with her rival.

Nevertheless, they haven't played each other in almost two years, and given Ivanovic's current form, she should be confident.

Should she win, then she will face the winner of Petra Kvitova's clash with Svetlana Kuznetsova, and if history is anything to go by, then it may well be the former.

Kvitova has won all three of their previous contests but they have never met on clay, and while her opponent has enjoyed a decent year so far, particularly on this surface, the Czech's odds are worth taking note of in what is on paper a tight match to call.

Elsewhere, Sloane Stephens didn't disappoint last time out as she overcame Polona Hercog in straight sets as predicted, and the American has looked sharp this week.

She previously beat her opponent at this venue two years ago, and it would come as no surprise if she uses her power, crisp ground strokes and movement to seal another emphatic win.

As well as Ivanovic, our other tournament tip is still going strong and we expect Simona Halep to come through relatively untroubled in her third round encounter with Maria-Theresa Torro-Flor, while in-form Sara Errani will fancy her chances against Julia Glushko.

In contrast, things get a little trickier to call elsewhere on Saturday's schedule, with Jelena Jankovic taking on Sorana Cirstea, while Li Na's conqueror, Kristina Mladenovic, looks to continue her dream run on home soil against Andrea Petkovic.

Mladenovic is a huge outsider for this clash, but given that her win over Na was no fluke, there is no reason why she can't dream of the fourth round despite losing her only previous match with her opponent.

Meanwhile, sixth seed Jankovic could have a tough afternoon ahead as Cirstea has proven before, albeit a few years ago, that she has what it takes to beat her in Paris as well as winning their other meeting on this surface.

Recommended Bets

Back Kvitova to beat Kuznetsova @ 2.0621/20
Back Stephens to beat Makarova 2-0 @ 2.767/4

World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Italy

Mario Balotelli: Well suited to tournament football

Italy are notoriously slow starters but regular Serie A columnist Dave Farrar is confident Prandelli's men can top Group D ahead of England and Uruguay...

Road to Brazil

I'm not sure that Italy's qualification route told us a great deal about how we can expect the Azzurri to perform in Brazil. At times they seemed to sleepwalk through a particularly weak Group B, remaining unbeaten, yet with a hint of a stutter they drew in Denmark, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, before being held at home by Armenia on the final day. Italy have never performed at their best against weak opposition, though, and the masters of doing just enough were at it again in this campaign, with late goals a feature, and Mario Balotelli leading the way with five of them. As if we needed reminding, he needs to be at his best for Italy to have a successful World Cup. 

The Manager

Not too many people manage to pull off the trick of being popular with EVERY set of football fans within a country, but Cesare Prandelli is a unifying figure in Italian football. He has bundles of class, huge public sympathy, and his stand against prejudice of all kinds was a long time coming, and has been well received. Tactically, he is smart, and plays against Italian stereotype. Not gung-ho, but he likes to play attractive and stylish passing football, patented in the youth academy at Atalanta and in his successful time with Fiorentina. If you fancy Italy, then the new contract that he has signed until the end of Euro 2016 gives him and the squad encouraging stability.  

And remember that Prandelli took the ashes of a team that failed miserably at the last World Cup, and refreshed the squad to such an extent that they made it to the final of Euro 2012. They are serious players in Brazil, and it's all down to Prandelli. 

Key Men

Balotelli has played most of his best football under Prandelli, who is an excellent man manager, and his performances in Euro 2012 show that he can be a top class international centre forward. Tournament football appears to suit Balotelli, who can lose focus and concentration during the course of a domestic season, and even though his form has been a little patchy, he was still Italy's top scorer in qualifying.  He managed 14 goals for a dreadful Milan this season, but it's worrying that he scored only once in his last seven games. Don't be surprised, though, if Balotelli is motivated by the eyes of the world and bounces right back to form. For all the form of Ciro Immobile, it's right that Balotelli starts as favourite to be Italy's top scorer at the tournament.  

Ciro Immobile hasn't exactly come from nowhere to be part of Prandelli's squad, but the Torino forward is a prime example of a player whose form for his club made him impossible to ignore. Nine goals in his last eight games of the season made a season total of 22, which was enough to finish as capocannoniere and earn him a place in Brazil. For those looking for a tournament Top Scorer theme, it's worth pointing out that neither Paolo Rossi nor Toto Schillaci finished top of the tree domestically before they enjoyed World Cup success, but Immobile has every chance of becoming a big noise this summer, and he and Colombia's Adrian Ramos should prove to be a fabulous partnership for Dortmund next season. 

Andrea Pirlo will doubtless be the focus of much tedious television analysis before Italy's game against England. I keep hearing the mantra that if you "stop Pirlo then you stop Italy" and that if you press Pirlo when in possession then his game will somehow fall apart. That's a simplistic reading of things, as Pirlo is often put under pressure and yet emerges as Juve's star man.

His powers are waning at the age of 35, but he is still one of the keys to Italy's chances. He will set the tempo of their play, and don't underestimate his relationship with the Juventus back three behind him. If Pirlo IS pressured, then expect to see Leanardo Bonucci step beyond him and show his range of passing. Because of his tactical astuteness, and relationship with his club colleagues, Pirlo's role within the side is far more complex than many would have you believe. And he's not as easy to stop as some would have you believe. 

Talking Point

For a long time, Gigi Buffon was an automatic first choice as the Goalkeeper in anyone's World XI. This season, though, the great man has looked human, and while it may seem churlish to criticise a man whose defence let in only 23 goals this season, he needs to rediscover his form for Italy to progress here. His judgement and his handling have always been his best attributes, and yet both have been questionable this season.  As someone whose key saves at big moments were a huge factor in Italy winning the 2006 tournament, I just hope that it's not a Buffon error which costs them this time. 

Best Bet

I think that Italy will progress from their Group, largely because they are the best and most settled team in it, and 2.6613/8 looks a fair price for them to win Group D and give themselves a chance in the knockout stages. There's obviously a worry about Italy starting slowly as they often can, but I think that they have a big chance of beating England and Costa Rica and putting themselves in pole position ahead of their potentially tricky game against Uruguay. 

Value Bet

For all that I say about Immobile not necessarily being the new Schillaci/Rossi, a goalscorer of his ability shouldn't be starting the tournament at 200.0199/1 and bigger to win the Golden Boot. It's a bit of a flyer, of course it is, as Immobile is by no means certain to start. But if Italy can make it to the semi-finals at least, then he will have chances to match the six goals that both Schillaci and Rossi scored at their World Cups, and if Immobile has proved one thing this season, it's that he can take chances. 

Did You Know?

Only Ukraine (13), England and Romania (12) saw more individuals score for them in qualification than Italy (11), although only three players scored two or more.

Home and Away: Ljungskile to leapfrog Varny visitors

It's all kicking off in the Swedish Superettan today...

Jonno Turner takes us to Sweden and Italy as we bid to end the week in profit...

We're heading to Sweden for our penultimate pick of the week - and the Superettan, where fourth placed Ljungskile host third placed Varnamo at the Skarsjovallen, with both sides desperate to cement their place in the top three.

The home side head into this one in a streak of enviable form on their own patch, and four wins from five, consisting 11 goals notched and three consecutive clean sheets, will have them full of morale in advance of this encounter.

Tor Arne Fredheim's charges ran out 5-0 winners in their last outing in front of their own fans, a systematic dismantling of Angelholm - and the Greens will be hoping to maintain that level of domination here.

Visitors Varnamo make this trip sitting third in the second tier, but despite that lofty position, their form on their travels has been a little underwhelming.

Peter Johansson's side have failed to win in six of their last seven on the road, and without even a goal in four of those outings away from the Finnvedsvallen, they'll be keen to show a little more final third cutting edge here.

Ljungskile have won two of the last three meetings with Varnamo on home turf - and I reckon that they might just edge this one, too.

Bet 1: Ljungskile (HOME) @ 1.84/5 (Sportsbook)

Switching our attentions to Italy now, and Serie B - as Cittadella travel to Virtus Lanciano knowing that a final day win could see them to safety.

The visitors currently sit precariously above the relegation play-off positions, and three unbeaten from their last four on the road, consisting two wins and a draw, suggests that they are more than capable of climbing out of the mire.

In the bigger picture, Claudio Foscarini's charges have enjoyed a real hot streak during the final third of this campaign, and five wins and two draws from nine underlines the cutting edge that they have at their disposal.

Hosts Virtus Lanciano line up at the Stadio Comunale Guido Biondi occupying 10th place in the table, and still harbour slim hopes of clinching a play-off place.

But five consecutive stalemates has seen their season stutter and stall somewhat, and with just a single win since mid-March on home turf, boss Marco Baroni will know where his side's weaknesses lie.

The home side have been lacking attacking quality all season - and a quick look at the stats reveals the extent of their problems. None of their forwards have scored more than five goals this csmpaign - indeed, their top scorer is 35-year old defender Federico Amenta.

Bet 2: Cittadella (AWAY) @ 10.09/1(Exchange)

2014 Home and Away P/L

Staked: 205pts
Returned: 191.06pts
P/L: -13.94pts

World Cup 2014: Liverpool skipper to outscore Rooney

Steven Gerrard scored 13 Premier League goals in 2013/14

Steven Gerrard is a proven World Cup scorer, and an intriguing bet to be England's top goal-getter...

Of all the tedious topics for vacuum-filling pre-World Cup debate - the relevance of squad numbers, whether players are banned from tweeting, how many wives and girlfriends will be in attendance - nothing quite rivals the monotony of conjecture over how Wayne Rooney will perform.

A bewildering number of players and pundits, including the striker himself, have spoken about how he is determined to do well this summer, as if it is common practice to travel to a World Cup without intending to impress.

Paul Scholes, who is greeted with a baffling degree of reverence given how bombastic and sensationalist most of his opinions are, said that Rooney is past his peak and Roy Hodgson would be too scared to drop him.

Both Steven Gerrard and Hodgson have disagreed, yet none of the unrelenting discussion about the matter leads anyone closer to a helpful conclusion about what will happen once the talking ceases.

Betfair's England Top Goalscorer market rates Rooney a far from dominant frontrunner at 3.45n/a, though a record of no goals in eight prior World Cup appearances, the six blanks he fired in his final nine Man United outings of the season and a recent injury mean he can't be backed with confidence.

Strike partner Daniel Sturridge, who is still quite green at international level, is attending his first major tournament and could start out wide, is the only other single-digit candidate at 3.814/5.

The most important thing to be aware of when tackling this market is that it doesn't take much to claim the accolade, so it is surprising that the defenders and midfielders are such distant outsiders. Since Gary Lineker went goal wild in 1986 and 1990, no England player has fired more than two at a World Cup.

The genuine prospect of the Three Lions failing to clear the first round for the first time since 1958 - they are 3.412/5 third favourites to win Group D - makes it even more likely than a long shot will top the standings or tie for first and trigger a dead heat. Matthew Upson was one of the leaders in 2010.

Gerrard is without question the value bet at 10.5n/a, having participated at two prior World Cups and been joint-top or better in each, triumphing outright with two in 2006 and partaking in a three-way draw on one in South Africa.

Recommended Bet: Back Steven Gerrard to be England Team Top Goalscorer @ 10.5n/a

French Open Women's Betting: Stosur has the edge over Cibulkova

Will Stosur progress to the next round at Roland Garros?

We've reached the third round in Paris and Abelson Info take a closer look as some big names begin to collide...

The line-up for Friday's schedule isn't quite what many would have expected, with experts and fans alike talking up the potential of an all-Williams third round clash.

However, both Serena and Venus are out of the tournament, and in their place are Garbine Muguruza and Anna Schmiedlova who will take to the court looking to advance.

With the field now opening up, both players will be looking at this as an ideal opportunity to make it through to the latter stages of the tournament, and given the emphatic way in which Muguruza dispatched of Serena, she will hope to use her powerful shots to prevail once more.

Elsewhere, two other starlets are making some early noise and while one was expected to make an impression, the other has come as a real surprise to many.

Eugenie Bouchard arrived in Paris off the back of clinching her first WTA title in Nurnberg last week, and the 20-year-old Canadian has built on those performances and continued her progress.

In contrast, Taylor Townsend has taken to her first Grand Slam tournament like a duck to water, eliminating home favourite Alize Cornet in a real battle last time out and she was praised by her opponent for having real potential.

However, her task of advancing further will get a lot tougher against clay specialist Carla Suarez Navarro, and although the 18-year-old is a significant threat given that there is no pressure on her, the Spaniard will look to make her experience count.

Meanwhile, both Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska will have arguably been the happiest of any of the players to see the younger Williams sibling depart given their wretched head-to-head record against her.

Sharapova has now been promoted to the tournament favourite, and along with her Polish rival, both will be confident of extending their stay in the French capital a little longer.

However, the same can't be said of Dominika Cibulkova and Angelique Kerber who both face difficult tasks if they are to progress to the fourth round.

Cibulkova has found her feet again after a recent struggle with two comfortable victories thus far, but her next opponent, Sam Stosur, has been utterly dominant.

Having brushed aside Monica Puig in the opening round, Stosur came through in straight sets again last time out and looks to be switched on.

That could spell trouble for her Slovakian opponent, and we envisage the Australian building on her impressive head-to-head record, claiming four wins in four matches, all in straight sets, with the last coming as recently as Madrid earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Kerber can also expect a tough time on Friday as we're never really been convinced that she can consistently step up and make the business end of the big tournaments.

Daniela Hantuchova will be looking to end her stay in Paris, and although the veteran hasn't been in the best of form this year, she will likely test her German rival having split their previous four meetings.

Recommended Bets

Back Stosur to beat Cibulkova 2-0 @ 2.1411/10
Back Kerber to beat Hantuchova 2-1 3.412/5

World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Portugal

Cristiano Ronaldo will be absolutely key for Portugal this summer

European football expert Andy Brassell, who will be staying with the Portuguese side throughout the tournament in Brazil, previews their chances this summer...

Road to Brazil

It was arduous, and certainly much tougher than it needed to be. The early loss to Russia was reversible - and indeed, Portugal won the return against Fabio Capello's men in Lisbon - but points frittered against Israel (twice) and home to Northern Ireland cost them dearly in the quest for automatic qualification. 

The dramatic two-legged play-off win over Sweden, underpinned by Cristiano Ronaldo's sensational hat-trick in Stockholm, was Portugal doing what they do. It was the third successive major tournament for which they've qualified through the play-offs. It also underlined - as it was necessary - just how vital Ronaldo is to their fate in Brazil, as he scored four goals over the two legs, following on from the hat-trick in Northern Ireland which overturned a 2-1 deficit.

The Manager

Paulo Bento is not a rabble-rouser like Luiz Felipe Scolari was, but his no-frills approach has its place. He is loyal to a fault, and doesn't do surprises, so the XI will stay the same throughout the tournament barring injury. This lends Portugal a real stability, although you could argue that out-of-form players are allowed to keep their places for too long.

Bento is no tactical showman either. This is his great strength. Players are used in exactly the same way as they are for their clubs, maximising their chances of re-producing their regular form and minimising the possibility of any crossed wires. So he's got the best out of Ronaldo by starting him on the left with licence to roam (rather than being played at centre-forward, as some have suggested), with clubmate Fabio Coentro behind him to link up.

Key men 

Ronaldo, obviously. The hat-trick in Sweden took him level with Pedro Pauleta on 47 goals as Portugal's all-time top scorer, a title that he made his own with a brace in March's friendly against Cameroon. His increased prolificacy under Bento has made the coach almost bulletproof, and he cuts a far happier figure than the one isolated by Carlos Queiroz's negative tactics in 2010. 

He needs support, though. Pepe should help to keep the back door firmly locked, and Sporting's excellent young midfielder William Carvalho will shield the defence well if he is chosen. Yet we need not necessarily look to club form to pick out the outstanding candidates to provide it. Joo Moutinho has had a difficult second half to his debut season at Monaco, but was vital at Euro 2012, bringing poise and precision to the midfield.

Talking Point

This group, perhaps overshadowed by the mouthwatering Group B match-up of Spain/Netherlands/Chile/Australia, is harder than many might consider. The opener against Germany is crucial. The same fixture opened Euro 2012 for the pair, and Portugal's reticence in a tight match eventually cost them in a narrow defeat.

Defeat would not be disaster but a point (at least) against Jogi Lw's side would really help their cause, given that the USA and Ghana both have their own, justifiable, ambitions to advance. A smoother advance to the knockout rounds than in 2012 would be easier on Portuguese hearts - and save something in the tank for the latter stages. 

Best Bet 

Having said what a hard group they face, one would still expect Portugal to advance, probably just behind Germany. If we assume that they will thus face Belgium in the last 16 - and that their superior experience and the presence of Ronaldo would give them the edge - we could end up with a titanic quarter-final against Argentina, in Brasilia. There, Alejandro Sabella's side might be considered favourites. So back Portugal to make the quarter-final at 2.829/5.

Value Bet 

Depending on the result in that opener against Germany, the game against USA could be pivotal. Despite strong showings in recent World Cups, the States are not highly fancied in the group. Let's not even mention them beating Portugal in World Cup 2002, but focus on the here and now. The match is in Manaus, where we can expect humidity and heat, and Jurgen Klinsmann's side are physically strong, with plenty of stamina. It's a considerable banana skin. The Draw between these two sides, at around 3.613/5, looks a great value bet for these reasons.

Did You Know?

Portugal hold the record for longest streak without a draw at the World Cup (16, from 1966 to 2006).

Is there a tennis betting edge to gain by considering surface differentials

Is there a tennis betting edge to gain by considering surface differentials

By Dan Weston May 30, 2014

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This tennis betting article explains how to find an edge on grass courts. Read more to assess the abilities needed for grass court success, and details of which players have strong and weak grass court records on the ATP Tour. Knowing this information could be the difference between making a profit or not.

What are the characteristics of a good grass court player?

As mentioned in previous articles, the surface characteristics of grass are very different to that of clay, and as a quick refresher, some comparable ATP Tour statistics are detailed below:

Surface

12 Month Service Hold

12 Month Opponent Break

12 Month Aces Per Game

12 Month Break Points Per Game

Clay

75.6

24.4

0.35

0.59

Grass

82.4

17.6

0.61

0.49

Overall

78.6

21.4

0.49

0.55

As can be seen from the above table, the average ATP player holds serve 6.8% more on grass than clay, achieves 0.26 more aces per game and faces 0.10 fewer break points per game.

Based on the above statistics, as well as knowledge of the players, it’s logical to assume that grass courts, being the fastest surface on tour, benefit those players who have a big serve.  Good net skills, with the serve/volley style predominant on grass, are also very desirable, as well as the ability to play good drop shots.

These qualities are often quite alien to the traditional clay courters who have weak serves and tend to prefer playing from the baseline on slow surfaces.  On that basis, it’s reasonable to assume that a large number of these players struggle to play on grass, and the appearance statistics of numerous top 100 players bear that out, with some rarely featuring on grass in the European summer months.

The likes of Federico Delbonis, Joao Sousa, Pablo Carreno-Busta, Alejandro Gonzalez, Dusan Lajovic, Blaz Rola and Victor Estrella Burgos can probably be excused not playing frequently on the surface due to their fairly recent ranking rises, which previously would not have seen them eligible for main draw matches in recent years.  Having said that, it’s fairly likely that none of these players have the necessary tools to be successful grass courters.

Players such as Albert Montanes (3 grass matches in the past 3 years), Nikolay Davydenko (3), and Filippo Volandri (4) have less excuse.  It’s clear they have a dislike for the fast surface, and Davydenko – after his first round French Open exit to Robin Haase – has already said he will skip the entire grass court season.

However, there are a number of players who are much more adept on grass, and show considerable improvements on their overall stats on the surface.  The following table details the players who have strong grass court records, compared to their overall records, in the last 3 years (data correct at 28th May, 2014):

Player

Rank

3 Year All-Surface: Service Hold %

Break Opponent %

Combined %

3 Year Grass Service Hold %

Break Opponent %

Combined %

Difference

Kubot

63

74.3

22.5

96.8

83.3

22.4

105.7

8.9

Mahut

40

80.9

19.7

100.6

86.8

22.5

109.3

8.7

Mannarino

89

73

19.7

92.7

79.2

21.9

101.1

8.4

Becker

69

74.8

17.3

92.1

80

20

100

7.9

Hewitt

46

75.9

24.6

100.5

83

24.7

107.7

7.2

De Schepper

72

82.3

10.3

92.6

86.8

13

99.8

7.2

Lopez

27

84.8

15.7

100.5

92.4

14.9

107.3

6.8

Janowicz

23

83.7

17

100.7

91.4

15.7

107.1

6.4

Tomic

80

79.7

17.5

97.2

86.5

16.2

102.7

5.5

There were nine players in total in the top 100 that had a grass court combined hold/break percentage more than 5% bigger than that across all surfaces.

Leading the way is Lukasz Kubot, who has very strong grass court stats for his current ranking.  He made the quarter-finals of Wimbledon last year, and his conqueror, Jerzy Janowicz, also made this list.  Both Poles can consider this their best surface.

Nicolas Mahut, whose serve/volley playing style makes him a very strong player on the surface, had the second biggest difference on his way to two grass court titles, whilst Adrian Mannarino, who is defending last 16 points at Wimbledon, was third.

Veteran Lleyton Hewitt was also impressive in 2013, reaching the semi-final of Queens and losing the final to Mahut in Newport.  With a 38-12 record in his last 50 at Wimbledon, he will be one of the unseeded players that no seed will wish to face, along with Mahut.  Eastbourne champion Feliciano Lopez also made the list, and also has compiled an impressive record (32-18) in his last 50 on grass.

The following table details the players who have poor grass court records, compared to their overall records, in the last 3 years (data correct at 28th May, 2014):

Player

Rank

3 Year All-Surface: Service Hold %

Break Opponent %

Combined %

3 Year Grass Service Hold %

Break Opponent %

Combined %

Difference

Andujar

78

68.8

25.3

94.1

55.7

12.4

68.1

-26

Matosevic

66

73

22

95

63.6

16.5

80.1

-14.9

Nadal

1

86.1

34.4

120.5

85.4

23.3

108.7

-11.8

Gimeno-Traver

94

74.6

15.8

90.4

73.3

6.2

79.5

-10.9

Hanescu

85

77.6

18.5

96.1

72.6

13.2

85.8

-10.3

Berlocq

47

73.2

28.3

101.5

79.6

15

94.6

-6.9

Wawrinka

3

83.6

24.8

108.4

84.4

17.3

101.7

-6.7

Gulbis

17

82.9

21.6

104.5

87.6

10.6

98.2

-6.3

Mayer L

65

78.8

18.6

97.4

76.9

14.4

91.3

-6.1

Robredo

19

79.2

23.9

103.1

82.8

14.3

97.1

-6

Nieminen

60

75.6

23.1

98.7

81.3

11.7

93

-5.7

Ebden

73

70.8

19.2

90

71.9

12.4

84.3

-5.7

Simon

30

76.2

27.2

103.4

78.2

19.7

97.9

-5.5

What is immediately obvious is how many clay courters make this list.

Andujar, Nadal, Gimeno-Traver, Hanescu, Berlocq, Mayer, Robredo and Simon can all consider clay to be their best surface and clearly do not enjoy playing on grass.  Andujar, who by some distance was the worst player on the list, has failed to win a match in seven attempts on the surface in the last 3 years.

What may be of some surprise to readers is the appearance of Nadal on the list, at third.  The king of clay has two Wimbledon titles (2008 and 2010) to his name in the last ten years and has also been runner-up three times.  However, in recent years he has unimpressed on grass, losing at Wimbledon to Steve Darcis priced at 1.011 in 2013.  In 2012 he was defeated by Lukas Rosol priced at 1.008, as well as losing in Halle to Philipp Kohlschreiber, at 1.149.  What is also worth mentioning is that Nadal failed to play a warm-up grass event prior to Wimbledon last year, and was clearly under prepared for the surface change from his beloved clay.

Also worth mentioning is Stan Wawrinka, who finds himself at 7th in this list.  This article illustrated that the Australian Open champion clearly has a distaste for fast surfaces, and his individual grass court stats seen above back that point up well.  The Swiss player could be vulnerable as a heavy favourite on grass this season.

The above statistics clearly show that detailed research of surface records is something that a successful bettor needs to have in their armoury and is a vital facet of a balanced betting strategy.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Betfair Live Video: Expect the draw in Mjallby as Advit pile on the pressure

Can anyone wrestle Malmo's title off them?

Action from the Swedish Allsvenskan, as Lewis Watson previews two of the best games Betfair Live Video has to offer this Saturday...

Mjallby vs Atvidabergs
Saturday 15:00

After a sluggish start to life in their fifth consecutive season in the top flight, hosts Mjallby are more than aware of the imminent threat of being cut adrift at the bottom of the standings. Sitting in fifteenth spot with only two wins to their name, Lars Jacobsson comes into match-day twelfth, and with a few critics on his back.

After finding survival relatively easy in the seasons following their 2009 Suprettan Championship, Mjallby find themselves in a spot of bother this time around - that spot being one off the bottom. With twice as many goals being conceded than scored, Jacobsson has failed to find his best back four in a defence that has often been rotated to no avail.

In terms of striking options, the Strandvallen has seen consistency upfront so far but without reaping the rewards. The ageing duo of Ekenberg and Ingelsten have appeared in ten of the eleven matches each, and with only two goals to show for their efforts it is clear that a lack of potency upfront could cost them this campaign.

After only making two free transfers this off-season, as well as one loan, the Mjallby faithful could well have a long season ahead craving an unlikely push up the table - with Jacobsson no doubt first in line to take the heat.

Atvidabergs themselves are only in their third successive Allsvenskan campaign, and after a solid eighth spot finish last season they will be looking to put pressure on the big-hitters in Swedish football.

After winning two of their last three matches, Peter Swardh's side have climbed into seventh, and with a positive run of results going their way this weekend they could see themselves as high as fifth comes Sunday evening. 

Albeit leaky at the back, Atvid have managed to stay afloat despite a minus goal difference - testament to their grit in grinding out sixteen points already this campaign. 

In complete contrast to their opponents on Saturday, strikers Skold, Ricardo Santos and Owoeri have hit the ground running this season notching up ten goals between them. With consistency in the back line, Atvidabergs have the potential to push on in the Allsvenskan - despite their lack of major silverware in the last 40 years...

Recommended Bets:
Back the draw @ 3.412/5
Back 1-1 @ 6.86/1

Halmstad vs Kalmar
Saturday 15:00

After narrowly avoiding the drop last campaign, Halmstad come into this weekend in similar turmoil, as they look to avoid another season yo-yoing between the bottom four places. With just two wins since the start of March, Jens Gustafsson is feeling the heat in the Halmstad hot seat after taking over in 2011.

With the worst defensive record in the league to date, the 21 goals conceded by the hosts has highlighted their defensive frailties like never before. With a tried and tested back four starting constantly in the league, the HBK faithful will be concerned at the lack of back-up available to the struggling defence. 

After starting his third season in the Allsvenskan, Icelandic striker Gudjon Baldvinsson is still looking to scale the goal-scoring heights of 2012 where he netted sixteen times in the season. Scoring only three so far in eleven outings, including a brace in the win over bottom side Brommapojkarna, the 28-year-old has struggled to live up to his early form and is clearly struggling for confidence in front of goal.

Kalmar, champions of six years ago, are going well enough this campaign - sitting in third just four points off the lead. After narrowly missing out on European football last year, roda broder have their sights on eclipsing their fourth place finish in 2013.

With only one defeat so far this season, Kalmar look to have found a degree of stubbornness this time round avoiding unnecessary slip up's against lesser opposition. With an impressive Hacken the only side managing to take three points off them so far, they will fancy their chances on any given away day, especially against a struggling Halmstad. 

With three goals this season, ex-Fulham striker David Elm will no doubt be a threat throughout this season. Now 31-years-old, the Allsvenskan stalwart will be hoping to bring the good times back to the Guldfagein Arena.

Recommended Bets:
Back Kalmar to win @ 2.89/5
Back over 3.5 goals @ 3.7511/4

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Students have learnt fast

Not watching paint dry: The craic is on in Dublin tonight

Football's about entertainment and nobody knows that better than University College Dublin

Mjondalen 2 Sandeford 2.

An 85th-minute equaliser for the visitors from Kjell Rune Sellin - among other things - means the Joker's buyin'.

Should be a few takers in Ireland. Twelve of University College Dublin's last 16 home games have produced Over 2.5 Goals and so have 12/23 Bray away matches since the start of last term.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.84/5 in UCD v Bray

Will European nations be at an added disadvantage at the 2014 World Cup?

Will European nations be at an added disadvantage at the 2014 World Cup?

By Mark Taylor May 29, 2014

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This World Cup Home Field Advantage betting article analyses HFA at the World Cup. Read more to discover whether or not there is a strong continental advantage, and if European nations will be at an added disadvantage at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil?

Globalisation of the World Cup

Until the World Cup was globalised in the current century, the tournament had been held either in Europe or the Americas. Almost exclusively the winners also originated from the same continent as the host country. Brazil, alone in 1958 in Sweden have managed to wrestle the trophy away from the hosting country and their most immediate neighbours.

More pertinently for the 2014 World Cup, no European side has ever won when the tournament has been staged in either North or South America.

Over the previous 44 years, Italy, Netherlands, West Germany and most notably Italy again at USA ’94 who took the final match to a penalty shootout before losing to Brazil, have each fallen at the final hurdle.

Post England 1966, when the competition became more inclusively global it has been either Brazil, consistently among the world’s best and Argentina, firstly in receipt of home advantage and then Maradona’s brilliance, who have lifted the trophy on the American continent. Uruguay’s two wins coming at the dawn of the competition.

Therefore, although these statistics hint at the added difficulty faced by European sides in winning “away”, we may be simply seeing the expected dominance of two very good teams, rather than a more general continental home field effect.

Measuring the impact of HFA

Conventional home field advantage (HFA) is both the most widely recognised, yet least understood effect in team sports. Although random variation will inevitably produce some clubs sides that produce better results away from home, even over the course of a season, these “away specialists” are not repeatable traits. Over the long term sides perform better at home than away.

Numerous explanations have arisen to account for this ubiquitous effect, ranging from crowd influence, familiarity with your surroundings to increased levels of testosterone when defending your own territory.

I have looked at the performance of English club sides when they move to a new home ground and the amount of HFA only gradually returns to normal league levels over the course of a few seasons. In addition, HFA appears to be steadily declining in many national leagues, implying that the effect, although real is also susceptible to change over time and shouldn’t be treated as an absolute.

If we want to see if any of the many possible contributing factors that produce a HFA can also spill over to also assist teams from the same geographical catchment area, giving them a continental boost, we need to look at all of the group and knockout finals matches rather than relying on simply the identity of the side that lifted the trophy.

With due respect to the rest of the world, Brazil 2014 again appears to be a contest between Europe and South America. The big two from each confederation, Brazil and Argentina and Spain and Germany respectively, dominate the betting and it is odds on that one of these four will be crowned winners. It is only when we reach halfway in the betting that a different confederation, Ivory Coast for CAF appears.

Measuring Home Continent Advantage

When looking at the possibility of a continental effect our remit must be relatively broad. By including USA in a catch all Americas, we are certainly moving away from a like for like comparison to a World Cup played in Brazil. However, if we exclude USA ‘94 we then should also omit two competitions played in Mexico, leaving very little data.

Limited sample sizes can lead to conclusions that may fail to be repeated in future events, so to maintain a decent sample size, but with that caveat, I have included Central and North American sides and venues in the data and disregarded tournaments prior to England’s sole success in 1966, where participation levels and logistical arrangements were very different to today.

Measuring the performance of a side at its most basic level either involves tallying up the wins, draws and losses or the average number of goals both scored and conceded over a period of matches. Both methods have the advantage of simplicity.

A goal-based study delivers its verdict in terms that can be readily used later, for example in a Poisson approach, but may be susceptible to overweighting abnormal large margin results. Recording wins and draws as a percentage of total games played, where a draw is consider half a win, partly eliminates the influence of high margin wins or losses, but is less useful, subsequently. It is recorded as the success rate in the table below.

Inclusive of 1966, six tournaments have subsequently been played in Europe and four in the Americas. The remaining two were shared by South Korea and Japan in 2002 and South Africa in 2010. These are where the data is drawn from.

The Record of Europe vs. the Americas split by Venue: World Cup Finals from 1966-2010

Europe vs. Americas

Goals For per Game

Goals Against per Game

Goal Difference

European success rate

Europe in Americas

1.18

1.31

-0.13

0.43

Europe in Rest of the World

1.17

1.03

0.14

0.54

Europe in Europe

1.52

0.91

0.61

0.65

Sample sizes range from nearly 100 contests between Europe and the Americas in Europe to just over 60 in the Americas and nearly 40 in the two neutral venues of Africa and Asia.

A steady decline in performance by European sides against the Americas can be seen both in the success rate and the average goal difference as we move from games played in Europe, through the Rest of the World to the Americas.

It appears that failure of European teams to win the trophy in the Americas is an unhappy coincidence that disguises a more widespread advantage that exists and plays against visitors from Europe.

We have taken on trust that the relatively large sample size has produced similarly talented batches of opponents from the two confederations. Legitimate objections about the inclusion of North and Central American sides can be partly allayed by similarly tiered results appearing if these sides are omitted.

These trends also persist if the results recorded by the hosts, who will benefit from conventional HFA, are also given less weight. So there are good reasons to suspect the existence of a continental effect, if we stretch the definition to encompass North and South America, which will hamper European teams and assist countries closer to Brazil in 2014.

Europe’s record against the Americas in 2002 and 2010 might be considered as a baseline performance figure on relatively neutral ground. This performance level dips by an average of nearly three tenths of a goal per game when they face teams from the Americas on their own continent.

Allowing Brazil the more familiar home field advantage, but denying an additional continental premium to the hosts and their near neighbours is likely to result in over rating the chances of the European teams in a competition that is guaranteed to see many such games in the group stages alone.

Click here to see the latest World Cup outright odds.

Mark Taylor is a freelance soccer and NFL writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also runs his own soccer analytics blog, the Power of Goals.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Spurs must look to the long-term under Pochettino

Tim Sherwood couldn't live up to Daniel Levy's ambitions, can Mauricio Pochettino?

Mauricio Pochettino won't turn Spurs round in a season and that is ok, they need a long-term plan to challenge for major honours.

With the announcement that Mauricio Pochettino will take the reins as the new Tottenham Hotspur manager, hopes are high that the North London club will regain its place in the Premier League top four. 

Re-establishing itself a force in English football may, however, not be quite as easy as simply replacing the man in charge, and Tottenham fans may have to accept a trophy-less season or two if they are to challenge consistently in the future.

Pochettino will become Tottenham Hotspur's seventh permanent manager since 2004 when he takes charge at the club and, with history suggesting that he won't be given long to prove himself, he will be expected to hit the ground running. 

This immediate pressure to succeed, and the knowledge that chairman Daniel Levy will wield the axe if results don't go their way, has engendered a philosophy of short-termism at White Hart Lane. 

The club must accept that Pochettino faces a number of fundamental challenges in returning Spurs to the top four and give him all the time he needs to make the necessary changes. The board must also take responsibility for their own failings in recent seasons.

Tim Sherwood may have boasted the highest win percentage of any Tottenham manager in the Premier League era (59.1%) but it seemed clear early on that he was not considered as a long-term successor to Andre Villas-Boas, having replaced the Portugese on an 18-month contract in December 2013. 

As a result of this instability, Sherwood, at times, appeared frustrated, accusing his players of lacking guts and commitment following a 4-0 defeat at Chelsea and telling his squad that they were playing for their future at the club. Sherwood's honesty and stinging criticism appeared to do little to galvanise his team and Pochettino will certainly have some work to do in building their confidence.

Whilst the loss of Sherwood as a manager may worry Daniel Levy little, he should be concerned about the loss of his knowledge of the club's youth system. Having formerly been youth coach at Tottenham, Sherwood had more knowledge than anyone of what his young players were capable of and his faith in the likes of Nabil Bentaleb and Harry Kane was rewarded with some excellent performances towards the end of the season. 

If Pochettino is to build on Sherwood's legacy then he must get a handle on the youth team talent that Tottenham have and be willing to give them a first team chance.

Arguably Tottenham's biggest problem last season was their difficulty in adapting to life after Gareth Bale. In 2012-13 the Welshman had been absolutely outstanding and had almost single-handedly dragged Tottenham into the Premier League top five.

Whilst there was no blaming the board's decision to accept Real Madrid's 85m offer, they were guilty of failing to ensure that the money was invested wisely. None of Tottenham's 2013/14 signings came close to filling Bale's boots, with the 50m+ spent on two of the players, Roberto Soldado and Erik Lamela, representing a particularly poor investment. 

If Pochettino is to succeed then he must be given funds, but he must invest sensibly and be allowed to make signings for the long-term rather than seeking short-term gains. 

If Mauricio Pochettino is given time to settle at Tottenham Hotspur and carry out the rebuilding that is needed then he will be a success in the long-term and Tottenham will challenge again for the top four. 

If, however, Levy continues to push for short-term returns then the club will continue to be inconsistent and the White Hart Lane fans may have to endure a few more trophy-less seasons to come.