T J Smith Preview: Black Caviar back at Randwick

Can Black Caviar win yet again at Randwick?

Head of Timeform Australia, Gray Crispe, previews the T J Smith Stakes, due off at 08:10 BST on Saturday, which features the magnificent Black Caviar...

Timeform's highest ever rated filly or mare, the unbeaten world champion sprinter Black Caviar returns to Randwick on Saturday for a second tilt at the G1 T J Smith Stakes over 1200m.

Black Caviar rated 136 by Timeform has raced just once previously in Sydney for a memorable victory over arch rival Hay List in the 2011 T J Smith renewal.

On that occasion in front of a 30,000 strong crowd Black Caviar came from well off the speed to run down Hay List after that galloper had established what many believed could be a winning break after topping the famous Randwick rise.

Black Caviar returned to the enclosure amid scenes of adulation seldom seen at Randwick and this afternoon promises to be same.

The mighty mare that has captured the imagination of not only hardened racegoers from around the world but people from all walks of life will again race in front of an expected "full house" this afternoon, coinciding with the opening of the new Randwick grandstand and associated facilities.

Black Caviar will be chasing an unprecedented 25th straight victory, an unbeaten winning run that is the longest in the world for more than a century.

As was the case in the 2011 T J Smith Stakes, the field that Black Caviar races today has considerably more depth than that of her last start in the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley with five group one winners engaged amongst her ten rivals.

And although she will again prove too good, she will not have things all her own way, especially with Hay List engaged.

There is not much that can he said about Black Caviar that has not already been written.

Regular rider Luke Nolen will be lining up for his 22nd win atop the mare and she will start odds on in betting for the 24th time in her career.

One record she will take in her own right today is the number of career group one victories, an Australian record she currently shares with the mighty Kingston Town on 14.

Black Caviar has raced twice since her heart stopping win in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last June and from all accounts, for the first time in her career she is injury free.

Fresh up she won an unprecedented third G1 Lightning Stakes in track record time at Flemington from Moment Of Change, the only horse to do so and then easily accounted for Karuta Queen and Fawkner at Moonee Valley.

While she has not had to reproduce her 136 master Timeform rating in either of those two wins, she did run to 133+ in the Lightning Stakes. Black Caviar might get close to her master figure today if emerging sprinter Bel Sprinter continues to improve off his impressive fresh up victory in the G1 Galaxy a fortnight back and Hay List brings his "A" to town.

Before this preparation, Bel Sprinter had promised much but always seemed to be the victim of bad luck in his races. Prior to resuming this campaign, the gelding had a mild throat operation that increased his airwaves and the result was there for all to see, staging a winning performance not often seen in group one company.

After missing the jump in the Galaxy over 1100m at Rosehill and settling a clear last, the gelding was aided by a fast up front tempo allowing him to make up ground rapidly in the early part of the straight.

Under Kerrin McEvoy, Bel Sprinter descended quickly on the leaders from near last to claim smart sprinter Snitzerland at the 200m mark before racing away to win untroubled by more than three lengths.

Today he steps up a 100m in trip but his winning chances would be greatly enhanced if the speed is on from the start, enabling him to possibly "ambush" the leaders late.

Bel Sprinter ran to a new Timeform peak rating of 126 in the Galaxy but will have to go several pounds better if he is to seriously trouble the mare.

Likely leaders in the race are Rain Affair (Timeform rated 126) and Hay List (132) with the latter likely to take it up from his outside barrier.

Hay List resumed off a long layoff of almost twelve months due to injury and illness when he contested the G2 Challenge Stakes over 1000m at Warwick Farm a month ago finishing fourth behind Snitzerland.

On that occasion he led early and into the home straight until his condition faltered 200m from home when claimed by the winner.

Hay List will have derived considerable benefit from that run but still probably lacks race fitness to fully test Black Caviar as he has done in the past, particularly in view of his recent trials that have not been as impressive as they should have been.

Still his appearance adds considerable interest to the race.

Of all the runners in the race, the likely dead to slow track conditions will best suit the speedy Rain Affair.

The handy galloper is unbeaten on rain affected ground from all six attempts and although winless in the last twelve months looks set to bounce back to top form this afternoon.

Rain Affair is second up today after finishing fourth to champion three-year-old Pierro in the G1 Canterbury Stakes over 1300m at Rosehill three weeks back, a run that will have him much fitter for his clash with the big mare.

It is worth noting that at this time last year, Rain Affair pushed the highly promising Atlantic Jewel right out in the G1 All Aged Stakes at Randwick in one of the tussles of that Carnival.

A repeat effort here will ensure Black Caviar has to at least raise a sweat.

For many racegoers, today's race could be the last opportunity they have to see Black Caviar race in Sydney. Sit back and savour the moment.

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