Lee Dixon: Gunners gamble should pay off with a defeat of United

With Oliver Giroud suspended, can Theo stake his claim to a forward spot?

Manchester United wrapped up the Premier League title on Monday night and punters have been rushing to back top four-chasing Arsenal to win on Sunday afternoon. Lee Dixon is joining them...

There's been a bit of a gamble on Arsenal to win this game since Manchester United secured yet another Premier League title on Monday night - and I think those backers might be on to something.
 
The thinking behind the bet is that United will have a lost a little of their edge since achieving their last remaining major goal of the season. 

From my experience it is an entirely human reaction to take your foot off the gas and relax a bit after winning the league. We went to Liverpool for a midweek match after winning the title in 1998 and were spanked 4-0! Yes, we had enjoyed a celebration or two, but it wasn't just that. All of a sudden the knocks and fatigue were harder to ignore and the mind drifted to the beach that summer. We lost to Aston Villa in the next match before rounding out the season with a win over Newcastle. 

United, of course, are chasing Chelsea's record points haul of 95, achieved in 2004/05, but that may not be such a strong motivator as winning a league title. We'll see. 

Sir Alex may switch the personnel around in a bid to keep his team fresh and playing at a high level but one man who I think we will see is Monday night's hat-trick hero, Robin van Persie. The Dutch ace will relish going back to his old club and I suspect Fergie will play him if that is the case.

It would be nice to think he'll get a good reception from the Arsenal faithful after more than eight years of service in the shirt, but there are a lot of bitter people in the stands because he left and, worse still, went to United.  

For me, the way to go about it would be to give him a round of applause and then get on with supporting your own team because a win in this match would go a long way to securing Champions League football next year. With all due respect to the Gunners' opponents after this game - QPR, Wigan and Newcastle - they don't make the most intimidating fixture list. 

Arsenal have done the hard work in the last few months, putting together a very strong run of results to sit in third place ahead of this game. They are in good form, score plenty at home and need the points more than United. A fast start is essential on Sunday afternoon. If United's minds aren't focused, Arsenal could soon hold a lead and the extra desire should take them to a big win. 

They'll have to do that without Oliver Giroud, who is suspended until the last game of the season, and I expect to see Theo Walcott upfront. His pace is a huge danger to United and I fancy Theo will grab his chance to stake a claim for the forward role on a permanent basis. 

His skills should contribute to an entertaining encounter and it's not hard to envisage the over 2.5 goal barrier will be breached. 

Recommended Bets 
Back Arsenal to win @ 2.285/4
Back Walcott to score @ 2.915/8 
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5 

The Betfair's Trader's View: Alan Thompson

As Lee says, as soon as the goals started going in on Monday night, Manchester United began to drift in the match odds. In my opinion there's no value backing Arsenal to win this one. Under normal circumstances, I would have Arsenal about 2.8 to win this game but they are currently 2.28. I can’t back them BUT can understand why people will.

Arsenal are yet to beat a side in the top four home or away this season - their 5-2 win against Tottenham is their only victory against a top six side! However, in seven games against the current top six, five have seen over 2.5 goals and six have seen both teams scoring. I will be looking at the correct score and overs markets - having a saver on 1-1 @ 8.0 before the game starts and then getting on over 2.5 goals IF it reaches 2.1 in running.

The Tactical View: Michael Cox

I fully agree with Lee – it feels like Manchester United have a habit of switching off once the league title has been secured. I also think there's a chance Arsenal might benefit from the possible absence of Robin van Persie. I’m not sure he’ll want to rub his title success in the faces of Arsenal fans, and Luis Suarez’s suspension means he’s got the Golden Boot wrapped up thanks to his hat-trick at Villa Park.

Arsenal’s defence has improved significantly since Thomas Vermaelen was dropped following the horror show at White Hart Lane, and after three clean sheets in their previous six games, 3.8 is a decent price for another against a half-hearted United.