The Volvo China Open: Big-hitters to overpower Binhai

Emiliano Grillo, one of The Punter's picks in China

Steve takes a good look at this week's event in China where he fancies big-hitting off the tee is essential...

Tournament History
Now in its 19th year, the Volvo China Open is organised by the China Golf Association. It's been co-sanctioned with the European Tour since 2004 and with the OneAsia Tour since 2009. You'll notice that no Asian Tour players, unless qualified via the ET, are in the field. The CGA and the AT have had an acrimonious relationship ever since the OneAsia Tour was created and the AT pulled out of this event in 2009.

Venue
Binhai Lake GC, Tianjin, China

Course Details
Par 72 - 7667 yards
Stroke index in 2012 - 71.12
Designed by Schmidt-Curley Design with the help of legendry designer, Pete Dye, Binhai is a long, flat, wind-swept, links-style track with wide fairways. There are 10 waterfront holes and small, undulating greens are protected by a number of Dye's trademark sleeper-faced bunkers.

The rough is dormant and far from penal and last year the greens were very slow, running at just 8.6 on the stimpmeter.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Info
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 6.30am on Thursday

Last Five Winners
2012 - Branden Grace -21
2011 - Nicolas Colsaerts -24
2010 - Y.E Yang -15
2009 - Scott Strange -8
2008 - Damien McGrane -10

What will it take to win the Volvo China Open?
Even though the tees were moved up on a number of holes last year, Binhai still played monstrously long and although relatively short hitters, Marcus Fraser and Francesco Molinari, finished in the top-ten, big-hitters held a significant advantage.

Winner, Branden Grace, and runner-up, Nicolas Colsaerts, worked their way clear of the field and fought out the event between themselves by round four and they ranked 5th and 1st respectfully for driving distance.

How you preformed on the par fives was key last year. Grace played the long holes in -11 and Colsaerts -10, whereas, 3rd and 4th placed finishers, Richard Finch and George Coetzee, both only managed -4.

It's not impossible for a short-hitter to win but conceding length for 72 holes on such a long track is a major disadvantage.

Is there an angle in?
With just one staging at Binhai, it's may be a bit early to give too much credence to any course correlations but a couple of events may offer a few clues...

Given that Grace went on to win the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last season and that Binhai is a links-style course, it makes sense to consider that event as a good guide and Ben Coley, who tips-up monster-hitter Alvaro Quiros in his excellent preview, makes a very sound case for form at the Doha GC, home of the Qatar Masters.

In-Play Tactics
There wasn't a huge disparity between morning and afternoon scores on either of the first two days last year with the averages for the four sessions ranging between 70.71 on Thursday morning and 72.36 on Friday morning, but those that were drawn early-late enjoyed a two stroke advantage over the two days.

As it's an exposed track, keeping an eye on the weather forecasts, and in particular the wind speeds, is a sensible tactic. At the time of writing, the forecasts suggest that those drawn late-early may get the better of it this year but that may well change before Thursday.

For in-running trading purposes, only the par 5 2nd hole played easier than the finishing hole (also a par 5) twelve months ago, but other than the 18th, the finish to Binhai is tough -holes 13,14,15,16 and 17 ranked 2nd, 5th, 9th, 7th and 3rd hardest respectfully.

Market Leaders
Favourite, Alex Noren, shot the course record of 63 on day three last year and he comes here fresh of a tied 6th finish at the Ballantine's Championship on Sunday, so his credentials are obvious enough but he led last week's event through 54 holes so there's a good chance he's mentally a bit jaded.

Of those to the fore in the market, defending champ, Branden Grace, looks the best bet. He was a comfortable winner last year (three strokes) and he impressed on his US Masters debut last time out but it's never easy to defend a title and he's just a shade short.

Recent Avantha Masters winner, Thomas Aiken, is currently trading as third favourite and he'll enjoy the test. Fairly long of the tee and a good wind player, I can see him going well but he doesn't win often enough to consider backing at just 21.020/1.

Selections
When I started looking at this event last week, one player stood out like a sore thumb - Paul Lawrie. Despite a disappointing opening round of 72, which left him languishing in a tie for 82nd, Lawrie managed to finish tied 14th and if anyone is suited to a lengthy links-style windy test, it's the Aberdonian Ryder Cupper and former Open Champion. There is, however, one huge negative - his putting.

With the rest of his game in good order, I was really hoping to see an improvement with the flatstick last week but he averaged 33.5 putts per round and you can tell by his blog entries that it's starting to get to him.

If he putts that badly here he has absolutely no chance so it's a big gamble but if he does finally find something, 48.047/1 is a massive price for the second highest ranked and most experienced player in the field.

Maximilian Kieffer was superb in Spain two weeks ago when he pushed Raphael Jacquelin all the way in a record-equalling nine-hole playoff. The German European Tour rookie is very long off the tee, showed in Spain that he handles windy conditions and looks a winner in waiting to me. I suspect he may well have been a shade shorter had this event immediately followed the Open de Espana and I was happy enough to take 61.0n/a in the Betfair Fixed Odds market.

Emiliano Grillo is another big-hitting rookie that looks capable of a breakthrough soon and after finishing inside the top-16 in four of his last five events, I thought he was also worth including before the off at 85.084/1.

Last and definitely least, I've felt compelled to throw a few more pounds at yet another monster-hitting rookie, Andreas Harto. Again, this test looks right up his street and hopefully, with the absence of too much rough, the young Dane can keep the far-too-common disaster holes of his card this week. He's developed a bad habit of making eights just lately and that's always going to hinder!

I'll be back later with my preview of the Wells Fargo Championship.

Selections:
Paul Lawrie @ 48.047/1
Maximilian Kieffer @ 61.0n/a (Betfair Fixed Odds)
Emiliano Grillo @ 85.084/1
Andreas Harto @ 250.0249/1

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