The Punter's In-Play Blog: Ricky's off to a flyer

Ricky Barnes, the day one leader in Louisiana

Steve's swerving events in Korea, for now, and concentrating his efforts in Louisiana, where a good start turned sour as the afternoon starters made hay...

11:00 - April 26, 2013
The Ballantine's Championship is still in progress but for now, I'm letting it play our without me. I will take a good look when play stops but at this stage, I'm leaning towards leave it alone and concentrating all my efforts on the Zurich Classic.

Of the three I backed before the off, only Rory Sabbatini disappointed. Graham DeLaet shot a four under-par 68 and sits four off the lead, set by Ricky Barnes, and Boo Weekley shot 65 to trail by just one.

My lay book looked great until the afternoon starters began, but now it doesn't look so hot. Five of the 19 players I layed before the off, Ernie Els, Rickie Fowler, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk and Jimmy Walker, all shot five under-par 67's in the afternoon.

I layed another two in-running yesterday - Greg Chalmers and Harris English and I'm now staring down the barrel of a worst case scenario loss of 706. There's a long way to go but as it stands, should I trade no more, I stand to win 746, should anyone I haven't layed go on to win.

I've toyed with laying a lump of my Boo Weekley wager back but I'm going to take a gamble and leave it for now. A good second round from Boo will make my book, a poor one could break it, and so fingers are firmly crossed.

History suggests he's a good position, the last four winners have been no worse than tied 8th after round one and all of them were in front by the end of day two. In theory, the fact that I haven't yet layed any of the top-five should be in my favour but I'm under no illusions. None of the five would put the fear of god up the chasers at this early stage.

For the record, the afternoon starters enjoyed quite an advantage over those that had teed off in the morning yesterday, shooting a shade over one stroke less on average.

13:10 - April 25, 2013
I don't usually kick-off the In-Play Blog this early but as I've had a change of tactics this week, I thought I'd better get the ball rolling.

There's not much to report from the Ballantine's Championship, where following a two hour delay for poor visibility, round one is yet to finish. My three outsiders, listed below, haven't started as I would have hoped and I haven't got involved in-running.

The story of the morning has been the start by pre-event favourite, Louis Oosthuizen, who has already been matched at just 2.1011/10. I watched a bit of this morning's coverage and his play was reminiscent of that displayed during his demolition job at the Open Championship three years ago at St Andrews.

After birdies at the first four holes, a poor drive on the par 5 5th put a stop to the run but further birdies followed at the 6th and 8th holes. It looked like he was going to set a very stern early target but as so often happens with super-fast starts; the momentum was lost on the back-nine. Bogeys were made at the 10th and 12th holes and I was left wondering why I hadn't layed him. Especially given this week's tactics at the Zurich Classic...

Having backed three relatively big-priced picks on Monday, the plan had been to wait and see how the first day developed and then to look at getting some of the early pace-setters onside. As detailed in the preview, front-runner have a terrific record at this event and that looked a sensible plan but I decided yesterday to get a bit more involved.

I've got family stopping for a few days so I won't be able to track the play as closely as I'd like so I haven't gone mad by any means but I've decided to lay the front end of the market before the off.

I'm not mad keen on the favourites, although I'm airing on the side of caution with Jason Dufner and Bubba Watson, but it's the players a bit further down the list that look short to me and I've layed everyone currently trading at 65.064/1 and below with the obvious exception of Graham DeLaet, who I backed on Monday at 85.084/1.

I don't usually quote actual figures as I don't see it as either relevant or to be frank, anyone else's business, but for this week only I will, as I don't think I can explain it clearly enough without doing so.

I've layed a total of 19 players and if I don't touch the market and just leave it until the end of play, should any of those 19 win I will lose an amount ranging between 169 (Bubba) and 819 (Cameron Tringale). Should I do nothing and all 19 get beat I stand to win 636.

I don't plan to leave things alone completely but I don't want to meddle too much too early either. If a host of fancied players get off to a flying start today I could well be shrugging my shoulders and merely waiting to pay out but if they don't, I'll be in a strong position.

I've picked this event to lay the fancied players for a number of reasons. We've had a lot of upsets already on the PGA Tour this year, this event has produced a few shock winners recently (although not the last two years) and as stated previously, some of those trading below 65.064/1 look skinny to me.

Ballantine's Championship Pre-Event Selections
Gregory Havret @ 160.0159/1
Gareth Maybin @ 160.0159/1
Andreas Harto @ 230.0229/1

Zurich Classic Pre-Event Selections
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.084/1
Graham DeLaet @ 85.084/1
Boo Weekley @ 90.089/1

Zurich Classic Lay Book
Worst case scenario -819
Best case scenario +686

Standings after round one
Worst case scenario -706
Best case scenario +746

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter