Against All Odds: A Rafa European special on the way in Switzerland

Petr Cech has been back to his best this season

Chelsea travel to Switzerland to take on Basel in a Europa League semi-final live on ITV1 at 20:05 and Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for a low scoring game.

Basel are classed as the outsiders of the remaining four to lift the trophy but they have been excellent in the competition thus far and it would be dangerous to write them off. After coming through a group that contained both Sporting Lisbon and Genk, Murat Yakin's men have knocked out three sides who were all talked about as possible winners. They beat Dnipro 3-1 on aggregate, Zenit 2-1 and saw off Tottenham on penalties after a pair of 2-2 draws.

Marco Streller leads the way with four Europa League goals for the Swiss outfit, but it's Mohamed Salah who has impressed the most with his performances - notably the one he put in at White Hart Lane. That tie might have finished 4-4 on aggregate but I expect this one to be much more like their other matches in this tournament. Seven of their previous 10 this term had gone under 2.5 goals, including all their games in the knockout phase. 

Chelsea edged out Rubin Kazan in the quarter-finals, beating them 5-4 on aggregate over two legs. Prior to that they'd knocked out Sparta Prague and Steaua Bucharest, but again, the margins of victory were hardly convincing. Rafa Benitez is the master of finding a way to win in Europe though and he will love nothing more than to add another major trophy to his CV before departing the club in May.

Fernando Torres will lead the line in the absence of Demba Ba and while his goal record isn't actually as bad as some people make out - he's outscored the likes of Rooney and Tevez this season - it's hard to see The Blues going wild tonight, especially as Rafa will likely adopt a quite cautious approach.

Over 2.5 goals is trading at a shade of odds-on at 1.9720/21 and that seems too short to me as I'm expecting a somewhat tentative affair, especially in the early stages. That's why, at the prices, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Basel v Chelsea @ 1.9720/21 

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 114 pts
Returned: 100.38 pts
P/L – 13.62 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)