1000 Guineas Preview: Cecil's filly too Hot to handle

Henry Cecil's Hot Snap deserves to be favourite

Timeform's Tony McFadden assesses the likely runners for the first fillies' Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas...

Lacking in size and scope, there was always a concern that Certify, the long-time ante-post favourite for the 1000 Guineas, would not train on from two to three. However, the recent revelations about the widespread misuse of performance-enhancing drugs by her handler Mahmood Al Zarooni would suggest that if Certify did indeed develop physically it was probably more in keeping with a Russian shot-putter of the 1980's than a juvenile racehorse naturally maturing. 

Certify, along with 14 other Godolphin horses, may be prohibited from racing until October but that should not detract too much from what could be an extremely informative race. In fact, the Henry Cecil-trained Hot Snap achieved a greater level of form than anything the Godolphin filly had managed when swooping late, amid clear signs of greenness, to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes over seven furlongs on her seasonal return, a race which, it should be remembered, was only the second start of her career. Considering the manner in which Hot Snap powered home, overhauling the Group 1-winning favourite Sky Lantern with relative ease, it would register as a real shock were she not to prove even more effective back at a mile. 

Hot Snap's inexperience was all too evident in the early stages at Newmarket as she needed to be niggled along, seemingly slightly uncomfortable with the strong early pace. However, once the half-sister to the high-class and multiple Group 1-winning mare Midday found her stride she really impressed, making steady headway three furlongs from home before delivering a sustained challenge that saw her pass every single rival, crossing the line with a two-and-a-quarter length advantage in an eye-catchingly good time.

The bare level of form displayed by Hot Snap in the Nell Gwyn would be enough to win an average Guineas, but there is evidently a fair chance that Cecil's twice-raced filly will progress mentally and physically from that trial race. Her claims are obvious and she is deservedly favourite.

Despite being comprehensively outpointed in the Nell Gwyn, it would probably be a mistake to write off the Richard Hannon-trained Sky Lantern. The grey filly's juvenile campaign ended in unfortunate circumstances at the Breeders' Cup as she was denied a clear run in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, eventually finishing eighth, the only time she hasn't won or finished second in seven career starts, but there was plenty to like about her reappearance effort behind Hot Snap.

Her return in the Nell Gwyn - where she carried a 3 lb penalty for her Group 1 success in the Moyglare Stud Stakes - was right up there with the best of her efforts and she simply bumped into a potentially very smart horse in the shape of Hot Snap. Sky Lantern is a strong-travelling, consistent performer and looks likely to be on the premises, the one proviso being that conditions don't deteriorate too much. It would be a surprise were she to reverse the form with Hot Snap, but it not inconceivable and her reliability makes her interesting, especially in regards to the place market.

A common theme this year could be the strength of the Hannon team, particularly with their three-year-olds. Maureen was quite rightly clipped in price following a smooth success in the Fred Darling Stakes, but, while she demonstrated her well-being and possesses a largely positive profile, it would be a slight surprise were she good enough to win the Guineas. Also- and it is difficult to tell how relevant this point may be- her one disappointing effort was on the Rowley Mile when she trailed home as a beaten favourite in the Cheveley Park Stakes. 

It is worth touching on Just The Judge as she was unbeaten as a juvenile, concluding her campaign with a win in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes. Well supported over the winter, Just The Judge is probably priced more on style than substance as she has a bit to find on the figures with some of the principals, but it would be foolish to dismiss her claims. She has produced everything that has been asked of her, impressing with her turn of foot, and she looks likely to improve for the step up to a mile. But it is difficult to escape the view that she is short enough based on what she has achieved and others look like better value.

Similar sentiments apply to the Aidan O'Brien-trained Moth. Having shown only fair form as a two-year-old on testing ground, Moth appeared to relish tackling a sound surface on her return at the Curragh, leaving her juvenile form well behind as she quickened clear to register an emphatic success. She has subsequently been supplemented for the Guineas and would have to be feared given her powerful connections and the striking visual impression she created at the Curragh, but the percentage call is to stick to those with stronger form in the book.

There could be another intriguing Irish representative as Dermot Weld's exciting filly Big Break remains in contention. A full sister to the high-class and likeable Famous Name, Big Break has improved with each start, her three-run juvenile campaign concluding with an authoritative win against the boys in the Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown. She hasn't been seen out so far this season but Dermot Weld has his string in fine form at the moment and she arguably remains overpriced at 17.016/1.

Natagora and Special Duty have prevailed for the French in recent times - albeit the latter needed the help of the stewards - and there are plenty of people who believe that the prize could once again be heading back across the English Channel. Mikel Delzangles, who saddled Makfi to win the 2000 Guineas three years ago, has established himself as a top-class trainer of racehorses and his challengers are always to be respected, particularly when they look as exciting as his 1000 Guineas representative What A Name. Though failing to complete the hat-trick on her final start as a juvenile, finishing second to Richard Hannon's Olympic Glory at Longchamp, What A Name caught the eye of many viewers and marked herself down as a potential classic prospect, her cruising speed looking like it could prove to be an especially potent weapon on a faster surface. 

She wasn't particularly impressive on her reappearance, but it is highly unlikely that she was fully tuned and, in any case, the muddling nature of the race wouldn't have played to her strengths. She looks sure to come on for that pipe-opener and could well have a large say in matters at Newmarket.

As you may expect for a Guineas, there are plenty of unexposed, potentially high-class fillies set to compete over the straight mile at Newmarket. Hot Snap is undoubtedly the one to beat following a highly-impressive success in the Nell Gwyn Stakes and her current price of 3.814/5 doesn't look unjustified. She is, however, likely to be a similar price on the morning of the race - though not necessarily at the off - and it could be worth holding fire until the morning of the race. Sky Lantern, currently trading at 14.5n/a appeals as the horse most likely to shorten prior to the race, particularly if Hughes and Hannon combine to win the 2000 Guineas with Toronado 24 hours earlier, and could represent a value play, for all Hot Snap is likely to once again prove too good.

Recommendation:

Back Hot Snap to win the 1000 Guineas

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