Against All Odds: Goals on Monday

Benteke will be looking to add to his 15 league goals

This week's Monday Night football comes from Villa Park as Aston Villa host Sunderland and Paul Robinson is tipping goals, goals, goals for those who tune into Sky Sports One at 20:00.

Paul Lambert's side have moved out of the relegation zone in recent weeks but they are still right in the midst of a battle for survival. They have a two point cushion over Wigan behind them but as they have to travel to the DW on the final day of the season, they will want to ensure their safety before then.

Wigan aren't the only other team in the relegation mix though as both Newcastle and Sunderland are just three points clear of Villa, so victory tonight would see all three of them level on 37 points. The Villans lost 3-0 at Old Trafford last Monday but they looked extremely dangerous on the break, and in truth, they should have had a couple of goals.

Prior to that, Villa had won three from five and had put three goals past both Stoke and QPR. Their defence is still pretty poor though - no clean sheet since the start of December - with 16 of their last 18 going over 2.5 goals and eight of those going over 3.5.

Sunderland have been revitalised under Paulo Di Canio, and after an initial defeat at Stamford Bridge, they have won their last two and moved above bitter rivals Newcastle United. In fact it was at St James' Park that their revival began as The Black Cats thumped Alan Pardew's men 3-0, with Stephane Sessegnon and Adam Johnson, in particular, having fantastic games.

Those two are coming into form at exactly the right time as Sunderland have struggled to score all season. They do have plenty of quality going forward, but it seems that Di Canio has been able to harness that much more effectively than Martin O'Neill did while in charge.

Away from The Stadium Of Light, 11 of Sunderland's last 12 have had three goals or more, with four having three or more and they haven't failed to score since a 3-0 defeat at Anfield at the start of January.

This match seems to have goals written all over it and while I could play it safe with a lay of under 2.5 at around the 1.9110/11 mark, under 3.5 is trading at a very low 1.364/11. I think it's worth risking that extra goal, and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Aston Villa v Sunderland @ 1.364/11 

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 118 pts
Returned: 102.53 pts
P/L – 15.47 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)