Lee Dixon: Real will go down fighting in Champions League semi but for Barca the dream is already over

Down and out - are Madrid tumbling out of the competition at the semi-final stage?

The two Spanish giants were humbled in Germany last week and - like most other football fans - Lee Dixon doesn't see either Real Madrid or Barcelona reversing their positions against Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, but he is expecting an entertaining game at the Bernabeu... 

It's easy to assume that the Champions League semi-finals are done and dusted after a pair of stunning victories for the German clubs last week.

And, I have to say, it would be very hard to disagree with that assumption! 

Betfair customers certainly see it that way, making an all-German final a 1.271/4 chance. 

For Barcelona the dream really is over. Bayern Munich are too confident, too strong and too polished to give up a 4-0 first leg advantage, but Real Madrid have a very slim chance of overhauling Borussia Dortmund thanks to Cristiano Ronaldo's goal at the Westfalenstadion.

Of all the teams in Europe you might back to do the seemingly impossible, Jose Mourinho's Madrid would be right up there. The Portuguese manager is capable of stunning things and we know never to rule his teams out, especially one containing an on-pitch genius too.

If Madrid are going to pull off the impossible, a fast start will be absolutely essential. A goal in the first 20 minutes will give Real a taste for the task at hand, get Dortmund on the back foot and set the visitors' minds racing. 

I certainly expect Madrid to score, but with three goals needed I doubt they can keep Jurgen Klopp's men out at their end. The imperative will be on the home side to take the game to the visitors and that will surely create chances for Robert Lewandoski and co.

The Betfair markets have clearly factored that into their thinking, pricing over 3.5 goals at a scarcely believable 2.01/1. Even though I expect a relatively high-scoring game that is not a price for me. If we don't see the 0-0 broken early there is always the chance this could peter out.

Borussia Dortmund have had the whip hand on Real throughout the Champions League, unbeaten in three games against the nine-times champions, but the game they lose will probably still be the one that sends them into the final.

Real will undoubtedly give this a big effort but there is enough class in the visiting lineup and enough knowledge of their opponents to get through this test. 

In what could be a volatile game let's keep stakes low and play a few correct scores, factoring in that all-important goal for the visitors that will surely kill the tie off. 

Recommended Bets
Back Real to win 3-1 @ 12.011/1 and 3-2 @ 23.022/1