Heineken Cup semi-finals: Back Saracens to reach first final

Saracens' Strettle could cause Toulon plenty of problems at Twickenham

Previewing the semi-finals of Europe's premier competition, Simon Mail expects Saracens to overcome Toulon and reach their first final, and is backing Clermont to edge a tight encounter with Munster

Saracens v Toulon
Kick-off: Sunday 14:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

Saracens have their best chance of reaching the Heineken Cup final when they host Toulon at Twickenham. The Men in Black have an outstanding squad and their experience in this competition in recent years could help take them to the Aviva Stadium next month. Mark McCall's side will have learnt from their disappointing quarter-final exit to Clermont Auvergne last year.

Sarries came close to reaching the final five years ago when they suffered an agonising 18-16 defeat to Munster. But they look far more equipped to go one step further this time with strength in all positions. Their domestic form has been hard to fault as they lead the Premiership with one game to go. The side have also looked very strong in Europe where they brushed aside Ulster in the last-eight.

Toulon have enjoyed an excellent campaign which has seen them lead the Top 14 for most of the season. Failure to win in their last two matches has enabled Clermont to overtake them domestically but their Heineken Cup form has been mightily impressive. The big-spending French outfit, who can boast stars such as Jonny Wilkinson, saw off Leicester Tigers in the previous round and they have beaten English sides in all five meetings in the competition. 

Saracens have home advantage in this clash and the confident English team can make this count at Twickenham. Five of the last six semi-finals have been won by the team with home country advantage. The sides met twice three years ago in the Amlin Challenge Cup where they traded one win apiece. But Toulon are not the greatest travellers and Saracens, who have yet to lose a home match this season, are tipped to advance to the final.

Recommended bet: Back Saracens to win at 2.0621/20

Clermont Auvergne v Munster
Kick-off: Saturday 16:30 
TV: Live on Sky Sports 1

Clermont Auvergne are the tournament favourites after a series of superb performances in the competition this season. The French league leaders have never reached the final before but are fancied by many to go all the way after being the only side to win all seven European matches this season. Clermont's free-flowing backline has sparkled in the Heineken Cup, with 23 tries in total, as they defeated last year's champions Leinster home and away. 

It is hard to believe a side of the quality of Munster start the match as 8.07/1 outsiders in this clash but it shows the confidence in Clermont. The Irish giants have the pedigree in this competition as two-time winners and are appearing in their tenth semi-final. Munster have stuttered in the Rabo Direct Pro 12 where they are languishing in sixth. But the team were inspired by the influential Paul O'Connell in their quarter-final win at Harlequins which should serve as a reminder they should never be written off. 

Clermont and Munster have both won two matches apiece when facing each other in the competition but the victors have always been the home side. The French club have the advantage this time with the contest taking place in Montpellier. Munster will certainly not cave in and will be desperately hoping the pressure on the odds on favourites takes its toll. But Clermont have the confidence, thanks to their 100 per cent record this season, to handle the occasion and the best bet could be a narrow home victory.

Recommended bet: Back Clermont to win by under 12.5 points at 1.875/6
 
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