2000 Guineas Preview: A family affair on the Rowley Mile

Dawn Approach is a warm order for the 2000 Guineas

With the first classic of the season just days away, Keith Melrose examines the familial theme of this year's 2000 Guineas and comes up with a slightly off-centre answer...

'The son of a Major League Baseball player is 800 times more likely than average to play in the majors himself.'

The above wouldn't be among the most ground-breaking findings contained in the 2005 book 'Freakonomics', a collaboration between New York Times journalist Stephen J Dubner and maverick economist Steven Levitt, but in the sporting realm it's one of the most telling. It's a clear manifestation of what most sport fans have long known: that the inherited traits, nurturing environment, nepotism and expectations put upon the offspring of sports stars can combine to create a hothouse for sporting excellence. Racing would normally deal chiefly in the first item on that list, but in the case of this year's 2000 Guineas favourite Dawn Approach all four might reasonably apply.   

The environment and nepotism both arise through Dawn Approach's trainer. Jim Bolger chose to send a good number of his best mares to his 2008 Derby winner New Approach for the Darley-based stallion's first book in 2009, so it doesn't take a great leap of imagination to see the resulting foals being the object of special attention at Coolcullen. It also stands to reason that few are better qualified than a man who handled New Approach so well to take his progeny to the fulfilment of their ability. 

Then there's the expectation. Dawn Approach, like his sire, became a champion two-year-old, going unbeaten through a campaign topped off with success in the Dewhurst Stakes. He now finds himself in a position similar to New Approach in the spring of 2008: a hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas for whom defeat would be seen as an abject failure.

New Approach just failed to win the Guineas, nosed out by Henrythenavigator, but saved his reputation and then some as his three-year-old season wore on. The expectation is that Dawn Approach, a far more forward two-year-old, will peak at an earlier stage; so the Guineas could be the case of now-or-never that it wasn't for his sire, who was quoted at just 12/1 for the Triple Crown before Newmarket. 

If a win for Dawn Approach would give New Approach redemption by proxy, it's only fitting that Henrythenavigator is represented among the leading competition. Cristoforo Colombo has already had a shot at Dawn Approach, coming third in the Coventry. He shaped a bit better than the bare result that day on what was just his second start, while three subsequent outings never really got the best out of him for one reason or another. It should also be said that being beaten by a rival as a two-year-old is no preclusion to turning the tables at three: indeed, Henrythenavigator was third in New Approach's Futurity Stakes in 2007.

Of course, second-guessing the intentions of Aidan O'Brien with his three-year-olds is often an exercise fraught with danger and this year has been no different. Cristoforo Colombo suffered what can be only euphemistically described as a wobble in the betting recently, preference seemingly swinging towards his well-touted stablemate Mars, but his price has consolidated now and it looks more likely than not he'll be allowed to have another shot at Dawn Approach. 

It would be the romantic outcome if Dawn Approach and Cristoforo Colombo were allowed to fight out the Guineas; but there's a significant fly in the ointment and- horror of horrors- one with a relatively rum bloodline at that. 

Admittedly, Toronado is by a Derby winner in High Chaparral out of a half-sister to a couple of cracking two-year-olds, but he's far from a chip off the old block. In fact, purely on breeding you'd be far more inclined to take Toronado to Epsom or even Doncaster for his best chance of a classic, but he's looked more than speedy enough for top races at a mile so far, never more so than when making an impressive reappearance in the Craven Stakes.

Although the importance of recognised trial races for the Guineas is diminishing in these days of trainers being able to better prepare their horses on the gallops, Toronado's win in a small-field renewal of the Craven could be the key piece of form where this year's race is concerned. Available at odds well into double figures over the winter, Toronado vaulted into second-favouritism as he brushed aside smart rivals in the Craven, the bare form somewhat muddling but sectional times suggesting he'd put up a performance of potentially Guineas-winning standard.  

Stripping it back, this year's 2000 Guineas has two among the remaining field of 14 whose form stands out above the rest: Dawn Approach represents the best juvenile form, while Toronado comes in as a potential usurper from the trials. A colt with more scope than early-bloomer Dawn Approach, Toronado probably has the greater room to improve further. Much has been made of Dawn Approach attempting to atone for his sire's defeat five years ago, but it could well be another father-and-son combination, that of Richard Hannon senior and junior, that comes to steal the headlines on Saturday.

Recommendation:

Back Toronado @ 3.8514/5 for the 2000 Guineas