Keeneland Friday Preview: All eyes on the Elkorn

Graeme has found a bet at Keeneland on Friday

Graeme North previews the best of the action from Keeneland on Friday...

Eleven runners go to post for the G2 Elkhorn Stakes (off 17:13 local time, 22:13 BST) at Keeneland on Friday which is the feature race on the final day of the spring meet. For four-year-olds and upwards over a mile and a half on the turf, there aren't too many surprises among the runners to be honest, most of whom have been around for a while, and it is one of the older generation Ioya Bigtime who has been installed as 4 favourite on the Morning Line.

He was just touched off by Kindergarden Kid over course and distance last autumn in a G3 but he hasn't run to that level in two starts at Gulfstream this year, readily beaten four lengths by new kid on the block Twilight Eclipse last time, and that makes him slightly vulnerable from a 2013 form perspective. He is second top on our weight-adjusted ratings on 137, just behind the former Luca Cumani inmate Forte Dei Marmi on 138 and marginally ahead of Al Khali on 136 and both Pool Play and Al Qasr on 135.

Forte Dei Marmi is entitled to be top on three bits of form from last year, twice at this trip at Woodbine in G1 races won by British raiders Joshua Tree and Wigmore Hall, but his recent reappearance here in a much lesser affair was rather lacklustre for all it came over an inadequate nine furlongs.

Al Khali is 4lb worse off with Forte Dei Marmi compared with one of those G1 races but that might not prevent him finishing ahead once again as he has at least shown winning form this year and, like Forte Dei Marmi, would have found nine furlongs round here last time (when much the shorter of the pair in the market) too sharp. Al Qasr is a tough one to interpret as he didn't show much on his recent Gulfstream debut (on dirt) but had good form last year in South America on turf when winning a G1 on what was officially (though the time suggests otherwise) heavy going.

Pool Play was second in this race two years ago, won the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup on dirt last year and will appreciate the step back up to a mile and a half. Even so he doesn't overly appeal and the fact that Reflecting, who  has won his last two while showing a nifty turn of foot last time out, has been priced up as short as 7, despite a steep step up in grade, is reflective of the very open nature of the race. 

The best bet elsewhere on the card is Political Courage in the allowance race at 16:11 (21:11 BST). Trained by Mike Maker, who on Wednesday broke the record number of winners trained at this meet, Political Courage has by our reckoning some way the best form of the dozen that face the starter and his last defeat can be attributed to getting too far behind a poor gallop. Morning Line odds of 6 look extremely generous - by our estimation he should be nearer 4.

Recommended Bet: 

1 pt win Political Courage in race 7               

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