Champions League: Back Bayern to go to the Nou Camp and win

Lionel Messi looks set for disappointment on Wednesday

James Horncastle thinks Bayern can complete an historic double over Barcelona when the two teams meet at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night...

"There is a lot of catching up to do. I don't think it has ever happened in the history of the Champions League but we will do our best," Barcelona assistant coach Jordi Roura said after watching his team receive a 4-0 "drubbing," as Gerard Pique called it, from Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena. 

Roura's instinct was correct. In the 155 cases of a team losing the first leg away from home by a 4-0 scoreline in this competition since the 1970-71 season, no one has ever contrived to go through. True, there's always a first time, but considering the state Barca are currently in and how formidable their opponents are, a miracle looks unlikely.

Barca, it must be said, have made a habit of launching successful comebacks this season. 

After losing 2-0 to Milan at San Siro in the Round of 16, they then won 4-0 at the Camp Nou. That would be enough to take things to extra-time on Wednesday night and serves as an example of what they're still capable of. 

Bayern, at the same stage of the competition, also displayed a complacency that might give Barcelona a feint hope. After beating Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates, they found themselves 2-0 down at the Allianz Arena. Laurent Koscielny's 85th minute goal made the close of that game unnecessarily nervy.  

You suspect Bayern will have learned from that experience. So dominant were they in the first leg, imposing themselves on Barca, cowing them into submission with their physicality like no one else in the last four and a half years, that while they're likely to still be respectful, you'd think they're unlikely to be scared on taking the field at the Camp Nou. 

Bayern won again at the weekend to set a new record points-total in the Bundesliga. Freiburg were beaten 1-0 even though Bastian Schweinsteiger, Philipp Lahm and Thomas Mller were in the stands and Arjen Robben, Dante, Manuel Neuer and David Alaba left on the bench. Mario Gomez and Frank Ribery played the final 15 minutes and Javi Martinez the last six. All are fresh for the trip to Catalunya. 

It doesn't bode well for Barcelona. Nor did their performance at Athletic Bilbao on Saturday. Like in the second leg of their quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain, they required Lionel Messi to come off the bench to rescue them from a goal down with a moment of inspiration. Eight minutes after replacing Xavi he equalised with a sensational goal. Alexis Sanchez then gave Barcelona the lead, but they couldn't hold on. Ander Herrera levelled in the 90th minute.

Barcelona are 1.9620/21 to win on Wednesday night. Considering the vibe around them at the moment and how good their opponents are, that seems flattering. Sure, Bayern haven't won at the Camp Nou since the group stages back in 1998 when they came back from behind to beat the hosts 2-1 with goals from Alexander Zickler and Hasan Salihamidzic. But their first victory there in 15 years appears closer, certainly than it did in 2009, when they lost 4-0 during the height of the Pep Guardiola era. 

Barcelona aren't as good as they were then and Bayern are better. Back them to win at 3.9n/a. 

Recommended Bet

Bayern to win 3.9n/a