The Punter's In-Play Blog: Louis stutters after fast start in Korea

Louis Oosthuizen, off to flyer in Korea

Steve's had a change of plan this week, laying all the market leaders from the start in Louisiana, so here's his nice and early first in-running instalment of the week...

13:10 - April 25, 2013
I don't usually kick-off the In-Play Blog this early but as I've had a change of tactics this week, I thought I'd better get the ball rolling.

There's not much to report from the Ballantine's Championship, where following a two hour delay for poor visibility, round one is yet to finish. My three outsiders, listed below, haven't started as I would have hoped and I haven't got involved in-running.

The story of the morning has been the start by pre-event favourite, Louis Oosthuizen, who has already been matched at just 2.1011/10. I watched a bit of this morning's coverage and his play was reminiscent of that displayed during his demolition job at the Open Championship three years ago at St Andrews.

After birdies at the first four holes, a poor drive on the par 5 5th put a stop to the run but further birdies followed at the 6th and 8th holes. It looked like he was going to set a very stern early target but as so often happens with super-fast starts; the momentum was lost on the back-nine. Bogeys were made at the 10th and 12th holes and I was left wondering why I hadn't layed him. Especially given this week's tactics at the Zurich Classic...

Having backed four relatively big-priced picks on Monday, the plan had been to wait and see how the first day developed and then to look at getting some of the early pace-setters onside. As detailed in the preview, front-runner have a terrific record at this event and that looked a sensible plan but I decided yesterday to get a bit more involved.

I've got family stopping for a few days so I won't be able to track the play as closely as I'd like so I haven't gone mad by any means but I've decided to lay the front end of the market before the off.

I'm not mad keen on the favourites, although I'm airing on the side of caution with Jason Dufner and Bubba Watson, but it's the players a bit further down the list that look short to me and I've layed everyone currently trading at 65.064/1 and below with the obvious exception of Graham DeLaet, who I backed on Monday at 85.084/1.

I don't usually quote actual figures as I don't see it as either relevant or to be frank, anyone else's business, but for this week only I will, as I don't think I can explain it clearly enough without doing so.

I've layed a total of 19 players and if I don't touch the market and just leave it until the end of play, should any of those 19 win I will lose an amount ranging between 169 (Bubba) and 819 (Cameron Tringale). Should I do nothing and all 19 get beat I stand to win 636.

I don't plan to leave things alone completely but I don't want to meddle too much too early either. If a host of fancied players get off to a flying start today I could well be shrugging my shoulders and merely waiting to pay out but if they don't, I'll be in a strong position.

I've picked this event to lay the fancied players for a number of reasons. We've had a lot of upsets already on the PGA Tour this year, this event has produced a few shock winners recently (although not the last two years) and as stated previously, some of those trading below 65.064/1 look skinny to me.

Ballantine's Championship Pre-Event Selections
Gregory Havret @ 160.0159/1
Gareth Maybin @ 160.0159/1
Andreas Harto @ 230.0229/1

Zurich Classic Pre-Event Selections
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.084/1
Graham DeLaet @ 85.084/1
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.084/1
Boo Weekley @ 90.089/1

Zurich Classic Lay Book
Worst case scenario -819
Best case scenario +686

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