Keeneland Preview: Wise Dan makes 2013 return

Can Wise Dan make a winning reappearance?

Timeform's Graeme North preveiws the action at Keeneland on Friday...

2012 Horse Of The Year and Eclipse Award winner Wise Dan makes his first appearance of 2013 at his home track Keenleand on Friday in the G1 Maker's 46 Mile (17:13 local time, 22:13 BST) taken on by just four rivals. Wise Dan, who will be ridden by Jose Lezcano in the absence of regular rider John Velasquez who was injured in a spill at Aqueduct last week and is unlikely to be seen much before returning to partner Verrazano in the Kentucky Derby, has been put in short at 1.68/13 on the Morning Line but even those odds seem unlikely to be available.

Wise Dan made a winning reappearance here last year in the G3 Ben Ali Stakes over nine furlongs on the Polytrack, returning a thumping 134 Timeform rating in the process, so there are no doubts about his ability to be at or near his peak first time out. Wise Dan only once ran to a figure less than 126 after that and won his last four races at a mile on the turf including the G1 Breeder's Cup Turf Mile in which he beat Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom and the G1 Woodbine Mile when he had 127-rated Cityscape held readily in third.

Wise Dan has to concede 3lb to his closest rival on our ratings, Data Link, and 5lb to the remaining trio, but for all Data Link won this contest in 2012 and is in the best form of his life right now judged on his last two wins, he will need to better significantly his current 121 rating to upset Wise Dan who was eight lengths in front of him in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile here last autumn.

Of the remainder Skyring looks totally outclassed, but there should at least be a good tussle for third between the lightly-raced and still progressive Silentio who the G2 Sir Beaufort Stakes at Santa Anita on Boxing Day and has since come within a whisker of winning the G1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile at the same venue. Mr Commons was fourth that day about a length behind Silentio conceding him 1lb having been set more to do on a track that is still heavily favouring those up with the pace.

There will be those that point to Mr Commons finishing only around three lengths behind Wise Dan in the Breeder's Cup Mile, but that was a muddling affair best not taken at face value and Mr Commons, for all his consistency can't be faulted, is pretty much a nailed-on 117 performer at best.  

Former 1000 Guineas entrant Preferential who won a couple of races in France last year, including the Listed Prix Des Tourelles at Chantilly in September looks the sort that new trainer Bill Mott will do well with this year, but she has shown her best form over a mile and a half and this US allowance-race debut over an extended mile in the 15:09 (20:09 BST) looks little more than a sighter to something better further down the line.

Mott should be on the mark with Flores Island in the maiden (16:11, 21:11 BST), however, and the daughter of Giant's Causeway looks the best bet on the card. Third on her debut at Aqueduct last November behind subsequent Graded winner Unlimited Budget in a maiden that has thrown up several winners, she was just touched off in a similar event on her comeback at Gulfstream in February. The runner-up that day Riverboat Queen has since run out an impressive winner of a similar contest and the longer trip on this more galloping track should play to Flores Island's strengths. She's been put in at 4 on the Morning Line but more realistically should be 3.211/5.

Recommended Bet:
1pt win Flores Island in the maiden

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