X Factor 2012: The Sage returns triumphant

Recommended at various prices during the series, James Arthur delivered the bulk of Houghton's profit from this year's show

We hate to draw attention to it, because we know it will exacerbate his egoism, but following betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton's X-Factor recommendations this year would have netted you over 18-points profit. This adds to his 2010 haul, where he turned a starting bank of 1,000 into a whopping 1,900, and to 2009, where he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. And it lays to rest the disaster of 2011, when unlikely victors Little Mix inflicted a gaping wound on the betting bank of the Sage of the X-Factor (he makes us call him that).

Well, what have we learnt from 2012?

I'm not sure I've figured it out yet, except to say that, for all that this series seemed to represent a significant shift in the predictability of the public vote, looking back at the results now, and especially focusing on the weekly vote share for each contestant, it seems that there is little to be added to the Golden Rules of X-Factor betting that we laid out before Series Nine started.

Except perhaps, that in James Arthur, we have evidence that a less clean-cut act is now able to win it, and that, for all that I have eschewed demographic theories of the type "all teenage girls will vote for the boyband", there seems to have been a very consistent voting-block that was keeping Christopher Maloney in this year's competition longer than most - myself included - would have expected. Whether this was the Scouse-vote, or just a group who, during a show dominated by often annoying ad-libbing, preferred Maloney's straight singing, we will never know, but it's worth keeping in mind for future series - if the X Factor survives, that is.

Otherwise, that's it. I'm not sure I ever had the same confidence in my bets as I've had in previous years, so I'm more than happy with an 18-point-plus profit, and especially happy that I was able to pick the eventual winner again in the first week.

Until next year.

All the bets from 2012:

Profit/Loss so far: +18.69pts

2-point back James Arthur at 4.804/1 in Winner market - WON.
8-point lay Jahmene Douglas at 3.8014/5 in Winner market - WON.
1-point back James Arthur at 11.5n/a in Winner market - WON.
1-point back James Arthur at 10.09/1 in Winner market - WON.
4-point back Christopher Maloney at 2.206/5 in Third Place market - WON.
2-point back Union J at 1.715/7 in 9th Elimination market - WON.
2-point lay Gary Barlow at 1.664/6 in 1st Mentor Eliminated market - WON.
1-point back District3 / Union J at 4.804/1 in Bottom Two Combo market - WON.
1-point back Christopher Maloney at 1.804/5 in Over 28s market - WON.
1-point back District3 at 2.9015/8 in Bottom Two market - WON.
1-point back MK1 at 2.707/4 in Bottom Two market - WON.
1-point back Jade Ellis at 8.207/1 in 4th Elimination market - WON.

1-point back Union J at 16.5n/a in Winner market - LOST.
1-point back Groups at 6.806/1 in Winning Category market - LOST.
6-point back Jahmene Douglas at 8.6015/2 in Winner market - LOST.
2-point back Christopher Maloney at 9.809/1 in Winner market - LOST.
1-point back Rylan Clark at 34.033/1 in Winner market - LOST.
3-point lay Rylan Clark at 1.384/11 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1 -point back Gary Barlow at 2.407/5 in 1st Mentor Eliminated market - LOST.
9-point back Ella Henderson at 2.206/5 in Winner market - LOST.
4-point back Ella Henderson at 3.002/1 in Winner market - LOST.
3-point back Union J at 2.506/4 in bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back Rylan Clark / District3 at 4.407/2 in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1-point back Rylan Clark / Union J at 8.207/1 in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1-point back Christopher Maloney at 2.9015/8 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back Lucy Spraggan at 5.509/2 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back District3 at 2.809/5 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back Lucy Spraggan at 12.011/1 in 4th Elimination market - LOST.
1-point lay Christopher Maloney at 1.412/5 in Wildcard winner market - LOST.
1-point back Times Red at 16.015/1 in Wildcard winner market - LOST.
1-point back Kye Sones at 14.013/1 in Winner market - LOST.
1-point back Kye Sones at 11.010/1 in Winner market - LOST.