UK Snooker Day 5 Tips: In-form Day can thwart waning Selby

Ryan Day is tipped to produce another upset today

The winners keep on coming at the UK Championship, where Paul Krishnamurty has a perfect 4/4 record so far. Today he reckons outsider Ryan Day represents big trading value against Mark Selby...  

If Mark Selby reaches the final at this week's UK Championship, he will take over from Judd Trump as world number one. Unless the 'Jester from Leicester' suddenly recaptures a level of form not seen for a couple of years, though, nobody will really consider him to be the sport's top dog. While Selby's ranking is a tribute to his batting temperament and matchplay qualities, his profile has certainly waned, as illustrated by the outright market. Even with Trump eliminated, Selby is only rated the fifth likeliest winner.

Nevertheless, that scepticism doesn't extend to this afternoon's last-16 match with Ryan Day, for which Selby is rated 1.454/9 favourite. Twice already this week, we've employed a successful trading strategy backing the outsider in supposedly one-sided matches, and this looks another perfect opportunity. 

Even at his best, Selby gives opponents a chance. Many, perhaps most, of his finest hours came as a result of stunning comebacks. He's less fluent than his closest rivals and his matches often become scrappy. Unless Selby is close to his best or his opponent struggling, he is rarely involved in one-side contests. Moreover, it is quite a while since we saw Selby's best. He hasn't won a ranking event for over a year and failed to get past this last-16 stage of either World or UK Championship.

Given that Day produced one of the best first round performances to beat Ding Junhui, there is every reason to think he can at least go close to pulling off the upset. Ryan has always been infuriatingly inconsistent so we can hardly bank on a repeat, but it's an exemplary form guide that would present a challenge to any top player.

My advice is to back Day for five units at 3.185/40, then place an order to lay ten units at 1.51/2, therefore at least doubling our money if he hits the lay target.

Recommended Bets

Back Ryan Day 5u @ 3.185/40
Place order to lay 10u @ 1.51/2