The Alfred Dunhill Championship: Worthy favourite Schwartzel a very fair price, says The Punter

Charl Schwartzel with last week’s trophy

Our man previews the final European Tour event of the year from the stunning Leopard Creek Golf Course. There's a comprehensive look at the course, a possible angle in or two and a few clues for betting in-running...

Tournament History
Originally called the Lexington S.A PGA, Ernie Els won the inaugural event in 1995 at the Wanderers Club in Johannesburg. This will be the 19th staging of the Alfred Dunhill Championship.

Venue
Leopard Creek Country Club, Malelane, South Africa

Course Details
Par 72, 7326 yards
Stroke index in 2011 - 72.57

Set on the edge of the Kruger National park, the spectacular Gary Player designed Leopard Creek opened in 1996. It's been the host course since 2005. The fairways and rough are Kikuya and the greens (running at 11 on the stimpmeter) are Creeping Bent (Crenshaw + A1). The signature hole is the par 5 13th, with a green that overlooks Crocodile River.

The course has a relatively easy start, a very tough middle and a finish that offers up three eagle chances. Once through the drivable par 4 6th the players face four really tough holes before they can relax again, after they've negotiated the tough drive on 11. Holes 13, 15 and 18 are all reachable par fives so big swings can occur. The 16th is an extremely difficult par three where par is always a good score, the par 4 17th isn't a great deal easier, and the final hole has an island green, where anything can happen. Just ask Ernie Els!

Useful Sites
Course Site
Course Details
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days - 8.30-10.30 and 13.30-15.30 on Thursday and Friday and 10.30-14.30 on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Garth Mulroy -19
2010 - Pablo Martin -11
2009 - Pablo Martin -19
2008 - Richard Sterne -17
2007 - John Bickerton -13

Is there an angle in?
Nothing leaps out as obvious when analysing past stats. Winners haven't had to be monstrously long or intensely accurate off the tee but you can't be too short or inaccurate either. Pin-point accuracy on approach isn't the be all and end all, so a solid week off the tee and a good short game and strong putting performance is usually the route to victory.

Past stats might not be a big help here but a correlation between courses might be. There is definitely a similarity between here and Park Royal, home of the Italian Open. Thorbjorn Olesen has finished runner-up at both tracks, Park Royal winner, Robert Rock, has a great record here and Garth Mulroy came up agonisingly close in Italy this year, having won this title twelve months ago. 

After he'd finished his first round in Italy, Richard Sterne said, "The trees and the feel of the whole golf course seems like it's in South Africa, so I'm enjoying it." So an analysis of past results there may pay dividends.

Is there an identikit winner?
Class-acts, Charl Schwartzel and Alvaro Quiros, both notched their first European Tour wins at Leopard Creek and as previously stated, Olesen came close two years ago. Is there a future star in the field? Or is it finally George Coetzee's turn to win? 

In-Play Tactics
You have to get stuck into the leaders at Leopard Creek. Given the final third of the course is made up of three par fives, a fairly easy par four (14th), a very tough par three (16th) and a tricky par four (17th), big changes are almost inevitable. Garth Mulroy did very little wrong last year but he still went from three clear to level in a matter of minutes. Just as he was bogeying the 14th, George Murray was eagling the 15th and the young Scot went from a double-figure price to almost 2.01/1.

And let's not forget about the notorious 18th - fortunes were done on poor Ernie at 1.011/100 five years ago.

Market Leaders
Having cantered home in Thailand last week, favourite, Charl Schwartzel, is as low as 4.03/1 on the High Street and I can see why.  In addition to his win here in 2004, Charl has four second placed finishes to his name so he ticks the course form box boldly. He went back-to-back in South Africa in January 2010 and if he turns up in the form he was in last week, he'll go in again here. He's a very worthy favourite and a very fair price.

Louis Oosthuizen finished runner-up here twice early on in his career but he's missed his last five cuts at Leopard Creek. He's been in sublime form for weeks now but he's very difficult to get over the line and makes no appeal at just 7.413/2.

George Coetzee went off as favourite last year, when he finished tied for third. He also has form at Park Royal and fits the class-act maiden mould too but I just can't back him. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if George contended again but until he shows more mettle in the mix he remains one to avoid.

At first glance, multiple winner Branden Grace looks a fair price at around 18.5n/a but it's been a long hard season and he could just be on the wane now and ready for a break. His form at Leopard Creek is pretty ugly too. In four visits, he's missed the cut three times and broken 70 just twice and I'm more than happy to pass on him too. 

Selections
I have had to back Schwartzel at a more than fair 5.69/2. After a busy spell, which has seen him finish 5th at the South African Open, 3rd at the DP World Tour Championship, 2nd at the Nedbank and last week, 1st in Thailand, there is a risk that this could be one event too many but it's a risk worth taking. 

He's gotten better and better each week and now looks at the peak of his powers. He's added this to his schedule because he's playing so well and you can see why. One more push before Christmas could easily yield another trophy and he's a no-brainer pick at the price. 

I was aboard Garth Mulroy last year, as I was when he very nearly won in Italy, so I felt I had to back him again this week, at exactly the same price I took twelve months ago.  He isn't in the best of form but a return to a course he describes as probably his favourite in South Africa might inspire, just as it did for Pablo Martin two years ago when he made a successful defence.

A bogey on the 18th hole on Sunday ultimately cost in-form Spaniard, Eduardo de la Riva his first European Tour win. He too could be inspired by Martin's success' at Leopard Creek and I thought 100.099/1 was a fair price.

And last but not least, having read this article, I was happy to throw a few pounds at Ruan de Smidt at a big price.

Selections:
Charl Schwartzel @ 5.69/2
Garth Mulroy @ 55.054/1
Eduardo de la Riva @ 100.099/1
Ruan de Smidt @ 310.0309/1

I'll be back later with a preview for the Iskandar Johor Open.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter