Bundesliga Betting: Foals to prove elusive prey for dominant Bayern

Gladbach's Juan Arango has scored some stunning goals

After all five of last week's tips proved to be correct, our Bundesliga man Kevin Hatchard's looking to end 2012 with a bang, as are runaway leaders Bayern Munich.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Monchengladbach, Fri 19:30 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Bayern 1.162/13, Gladbach 24.023/1, the draw 9.417/2

This is the final round of matches before the winter break, and as thoughts turn to tinsel, presents and hideous Christmas ditties (if I hear Mistletoe and Wine again I won't be responsible for my actions), we should take time out to appreciate the relentless magnificence of Bayern Munich.

The Bavarian giants are a monumental 11 points clear at the top, and only a collapse of epic proportions will see them fail to secure their first Bundesliga title since 2010. Bayern have won 13 of their 16 matches, conceding just six goals and smashing in 43. Opta tell us their goal difference on +37 is 24 goals better than any other team in the division.

The market is expecting Bayern to finish the first half of the season by thrashing 8th-placed Borussia Monchengladbach, but I think the game may prove to be a bit closer than people think, as Gladbach are in decent form. Lucien Favre's side has suffered just one defeat in ten matches in all competitions, and the Foals haven't lost a Bundesliga away game since mid-October, their best run since 1992. Overall Gladbach have lost on two of their eight Bundesliga road trips, and in their most recent away game in the league they were only denied what would have been an impressive victory at Schalke by an 85th-minute equaliser.

Gladbach are not the team they were last season (star players Marco Reus, Dante and Roman Neustadter all left in the summer), but it's to Favre's immense credit that a re-jigged line-up is just three points behind third-placed Borussia Dortmund. While new signings Luuk De Jong and Granit Xhaka have taken time to settle, established players like Patrick Hermann (three goals, three assists) and Juan Arango (five goals, four assists) have really stepped up. Arango has been superb, scoring several spectacular goals, including a 45-yard chip against Mainz last week.

Bayern's outstanding record explains why they are so short for the win, but I actually think the market has underestimated a Gladbach side which has rediscovered its confidence. I'm pleasantly surprised to find that you can back Gladbach +2.0 & +2.5 on the Asian Handicap at a healthy 1.981/1. That will give you a full win if Gladbach lose by a single goal, and a half-win if they lose by two. Although Gladbach have a much-changed side, they will take confidence from beating Bayern home and away last season.

Recommended Bet: Back Borussia Monchengladbach +2.0 & +2.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.981/1

Greuther Furth vs Augsburg, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Greuther 2.466/4, Augsburg 3.259/4, the draw 3.45n/a

The division's worst two teams are set to do battle in Bavaria, and both are desperate for the win. Both teams have collected just eight points each, and are ten points away from escaping the bottom three. Unsurprisingly the Bundesliga's two weakest attacks will be on show - Greuther have scored just ten goals, while Augsburg have netted 11.

Greuther have the division's worst home record (just two points collected), while Augsburg have the worst away record (just two points collected). Some of the other Opta stats make grim reading for both clubs - only two teams in Bundesliga history have collected fewer points from their first 16 games, and both Wuppertaler and the superbly named Tennis Borussia Berlin went on to be relegated.

It's tempting to conclude that these two are as bad as each other, but I actually think Augsburg have improved in recent weeks. They have performed determinedly in defeats to Dortmund and Bayern, and they drew 1-1 with Freiburg and Borussia Monchengladbach. The return from injury of striker Sascha Molders has at last given them a focal point in attack, and South Korean Koo Ja-Cheol has looked increasingly threatening.

I'm surprised that Greuther are clear favourites, as they have lost five of their last six games. I would back Augsburg Draw No Bet at 2.265/4, which will return your stake if the match is drawn. I'm expecting a tense derby with plenty of fear, so backing the draw at Half Time looks attractive at 2.0421/20.

Recommended Bet: Back Augsburg in the Draw No Bet market at 2.265/4

Back the draw at Half Time at 2.0421/20

Werder Bremen vs Nurnberg, Sun 16:30 BST

Match Odds: Werder 1.9110/11, Nurnberg 4.47/2, the draw 3.814/5

Bizarrely, Werder Bremen's last three games have featured a 4-1 scoreline. Defeats to Leverkusen and Eintracht sandwiched a thumping victory at Hoffenheim, underlining the chronic inconsistency that besets Thomas Schaaf's side. 12 of Werder's 16 league games have featured Over 2.5 Goals, so I'm surprised it's available at 1.84/5.

Nurnberg have won on their last two visits to Bremen, but I don't expect them to make it three in a row. The Bavarians have lost five of their last six away games, while Werder have won three of their last four at home. 1.9110/11 is too big for the home win.

Recommended Bets: Back Werder to win at 1.9110/11

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.84/5