Against All Odds: Valladolid to take advantage of lightweight Sevilla

Sevilla players have been making too many rash tackles

Sevilla are odds-on for their La Liga clash with Valladolid tonight but with an injury and suspension crisis, Paul Robinson thinks they have to be taken on at the prices.

Sevilla have blown hot and cold so far this campaign, seemingly only getting themselves up for big games like Real Madrid, Barcelona and the Seville derby. They won two of those and led Barcelona 2-0 before going down to 10 men and conceding three late goals. 

Discipline has been a problem for Mchel Gonzlez's side and they are paying for it this evening as they have four first team players suspended. Furthermore, strikers, Negredo and Manu are out injured and it means that Sevilla will take the field tonight without players who have contributed 14 of their 18 league goals so far this season.

Valladolid have fared better than expected since promotion from the Segunda B division last year. They are as high as 10th in the table, which is actually two places higher than Sevilla, and a win from their game in hand today will see them go seventh.

Admittedly it's been their home form that has carried them to this initial success, as Miroslav uki's side men have picked up 12 of their 18 points at Estadio Nuevo Jos Zorrilla. Interestingly though, the away trips they've faced thus far have been against the likes of Atletico Madrid, Malaga and Getafe, and they have at least won at Real Zaragoza and Osasuna.  

Sevilla clearly have a much richer pedigree than Valladolid and also have home advantage, but they are missing half their first team for this one, and their match odds of 1.794/5 are ridiculously short. Laying that price screams of value to me, so that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Sevilla v Valladolid @ 1.794/5

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 276 pts
Returned: 281.47 pts
P/L + 5.47 pts