Against All Odds: Don't expect the obvious in Ukraine

Antonio Conte is no stranger to controversy

Shakhtar and Juventus meet in the Champions League this evening knowing that a draw will see them both through, but despite a stalemate being more likely than usual, Paul Robinson thinks it must be opposed at odds-on.

A late equaliser for Anderlecht wasn't enough to earn them a Europa League spot at the expense of Zenit, however it was enough to give us our fourth winner from our last five selections.

Shakhtar have been magnificent in this year's Champions League and they have already qualified from Group E courtesy of a superior head to head record with Chelsea. A repeat of their 1-1 draw in Turin would see them confirmed as group winners but with the likes of Real Madrid and Porto finishing as runners up, it's questionable whether that would be much of an advantage.

Their record at the Donbass Arena is exceptional; no competitive loss since November 2011, with the rest all being victories bar one draw. A further issue that sways me against the draw is that striker, Adriano - who is suspended tonight - created controversy in their last Champions League match by scoring a very unsporting goal, and with the eyes of Europe on this match tonight, manager, Mircea Lucescu, won't want his side's integrity questioned again.

Juventus have to assume that Chelsea will defeat FC Nordsjlland so they need to get a positive result to qualify for the knockout phase. After going unbeaten in Serie A last year, The Old Lady have suffered a couple of recent defeats to the Milan clubs in domestic action. They are yet to lose in this competition, although three draws, most notably the one in Denmark, have left them in this precarious position.

The Italians are no strangers to controversy themselves; relegation in 2006 due to match fixing and current boss, Antonio Conte is still completing a touchline ban for another match fixing scandal. It is therefore highly unlikely that they will want to be embroiled in further controversy and they will definitely be going on to the pitch with the intention to win.

I'm not saying that a draw is impossible, as it's quite clear that if the scores are level going into the final phase of the game that neither side will take too many risks to get all three points. However it's just too short at around the 1.981/1 mark and that's why I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay a Shakhtar v Juventus draw @ 1.981/1

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 279 pts
Returned: 286.65 pts
P/L + 7.65 pts