Jonathan Roy Tops Field of 1,173, Wins WPT Montreal

Jonathan Roy wins massive WPT Montreal event (Photo: CanadaPoker.com)

It has been an historic couple of weeks for poker in Canada, with the World Series of Poker Circuit recently making its first ever stop in Vancouver and the World Poker Tour triumphantly returning to Canada for this week's WPT Montreal event. Both tournaments saw fields of more than 1,000 players participate, and in both cases local players took the titles, with John Crncic of Vancouver winning the WSOP-C event and Jonathan Roy of Boucherville (a Montreal suburb) winning WPT Montreal.

We reported on Crncic's victory here a couple of weeks ago in which he overcame a field of 1,032 at the River Rock Casino Resort in Vancouver to win a WSOP-C ring and $288,382 first prize in the $1,675 buy-in Main Event. Crncic also earned a spot in the 2012-13 WSOP National Championship that will take place at the conclusion of the current season in May 2013 at Harrah's New Orleans.

Whereas the WSOP-C event in Vancouver saw mostly Canadians take part -- and a final table comprised solely of Canadian players -- the WPT event in Montreal attracted many players from the United States and around the world.

It was the first time the WPT has visited Canada since 2008, and a whopping 1,173 players entered WPT Montreal at the Playground Poker Club in nearby Kahnawake, well exceeding expectations for the event. With a $3,000 buy-in (Canadian dollars, worth just slightly more than USD), the prize pool added up to $3,412,930 (C$), making the tournament one of the largest in WPT history and one of the biggest ever staged in Canada.

The top 117 finishers made the money, with several familiar names among those who did including Mark Radoja (111st, $5,420), Ken Aldridge (99th, $6,100), Xuan Liu (86th, $6,775), Marc-Andre Ladouceur (53rd, $10,840), Dan Smith (42nd, $12,535), Christian Harder (31st, $14,905), Mike McDonald (27th, $17,615), Timothy Adams (25th, $17,615), Jason Koon (22nd, $17,615), Bruce Buffer (19th, $17,615), Amanda Musumeci (14th, $25,070), and Ashton Griffin (13th, $25,070) (all c$).

After two Day 1 flights and two more days of poker, the fourth and final day began with the six-handed final table where Sylvain Siebert of Ontario began the day with the chip lead with more than 8.8 million followed closely by Jeff Gross of Michigan. Meanwhile, returning to the shortest stack among the final six was Gavin Smith, a native of Ontario currently living in Las Vegas, who began his fifth WPT final table with just over 1.6 million.

Also coming back to a short stack of about 2.4 million was Peter Kaemmerlen who would in fact commit all of those chips in the very first hand with Jd-Jh and find himself up against the Ah-10d of Gross. The flop and turn were safe for Kaemmerlen, coming nine-high, but the Ad on the river paired Gross and sent the New Yorker out in sixth place.

That hand catapulted Gross into the chip lead momentarily, but he was soon overtaken by Pascal Lefrancois of Sainte-Therese, Quebec when the latter scored a big double-up through leader Siebert. That hand crippled Siebert, and it wouldn't be long before he'd push all in from the small blind with 6c-5d, get called by Roy in the big blind with Qc-Qs, and after Seibert failed to improve he hit the rail in fifth.

Smith continued to battle with his short stack, doubling up once through Gross.  But eventually he was all in and at risk again with Ad-5s versus Roy's Kc-7s in another blind-vs.-blind battle. The 8d-8s-2c flop was okay for Smith, but the 7d on the turn put Roy ahead. The river was the 3c, and Smith finished fourth.

The remaining trio would battle for three more hours, with much of that time spent with Roy and Lefrancois battling for first position with big stacks of 14 million-plus while Gross endured in third. Then Gross scored a big double-up through Lefrancois when the pair got all of Gross's stack in on a Qc-Qs-7h flop and Gross had pocket sixes to Lefrancois pocket treys. Two cards later Gross still had the best hand and had moved into second position just ahead of Lefrancois.

Over the next hour Gross slipped back, however, and after a few more hands was open-pushing for just under 2.5 million from the button and getting called by Roy in the small blind. Gross had Kd-Qc and Roy As-Qs, and after the flop brought an ace Gross was already drawing dead by the turn to be eliminated in third.

Heads-up play began with Roy in front with just over 19.1 million while Lefrancois was just under 16 million. The two would play nearly 30 hands, with Lefrancois gradually edging out in front himself. Then came a huge preflop all-in confrontation that saw Lefrancois hoping his 6h-6c would hold versus Roy's Ks-Qc. But the flop brought a king and the turn a queen, and suddenly Roy had nearly all of the chips while Lefrancois had fallen below 1 million.

All in on the next hand with 8c-3h, Lefrancois saw Roy turn over Ks-Jh, and again the community cards were good for Roy, coming Kc-4d-Jc-Qd-9d to give Roy the hand and the title.

2012 WPT Montreal final table payouts (C$):
1.  Jonathan Roy -- $779,210
2.  Pascal Lefrancois -- $470,920
3.  Jeff Gross -- $317,450
4.  Gavin Smith -- $211,745
5.  Sylvain Siebert -- $146,360
6.  Peter Kaemmerlen -- $113,155

The win marks the biggest cash by far for Roy, a relative newcomer to the poker tourney scene whose first cashes came in 2011. That three-quarter million dollar payday is more than 10 times his previous best score for winning a preliminary event at EPT Monte Carlo in April of this year. For his win, Roy also earns a spot in the $25K WPT World Championship that will conclude Season XI in May 2013 at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, Nevada.

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Bundesliga Betting: Fear factor could play a part in Germany's "Clasico"

Dortmund's Robert Lewandowksi is Bayern's "bete noire"

Bayern Munich have swept away all before them in the Bundesliga this term, but their bogey team Borussia Dortmund lie in wait this weekend, writes Kevin Hatchard.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund, Sat 17:30, Live on Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Bayern 1.84/5, Dortmund 4.77/2, the draw 4.1n/a

It's been a record-breaking start to the campaign for Bayern Munich, and the Opta stats underline just how well Jupp Heynckes' men are playing. They have collected a record 37 points from the first 14 games of the season, and they are the earliest team to establish themselves as "autumn champions" (in other words they'll be top at the winter break). Their haul of 40 goals in 14 games is the best for 27 years, and no team has had a better goal difference (+35) at this stage than Bayern do now.

Despite all of this success and an 11-point advantage over 3rd-placed Borussia Dortmund, there is a tinge of fear at the Allianz Arena. When this fixture took place last November, Bayern had a five-point lead at the top of the table. BVB won 1-0 thanks to a goal from Mario Gotze, and went on to retain their title as Bayern crumbled in the second half of the season. Heynckes has been at pains to stress that nothing has been won yet.

Both teams played within themselves in midweek as they prepared for this match, with differing results. Bayern won 2-0 at Freiburg, helped by an early red card for the hosts' Fallou Diagne. Dortmund went 1-0 up at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf, but then took their foot off the pedal and allowed the visitors to grab a 1-1 draw.

Bayern will be without the injured Arjen Robben, but midfield general Bastian Schweinsteiger is back to full fitness, and the Bavarians still have plenty of firepower. Mario Gomez is back after a long lay-off, and Thomas Muller is back to his best, having notched up eight goals and six assists.

Dortmund have struggled for consistency this term, but their recent record against Bayern is excellent. They have won on their last two league visits to the Allianz Arena, although they were beaten 2-1 there in the season-opening German Supercup. Dortmund have beaten Bayern in their last four league meetings, and they battered them 5-2 in last season's German Cup final. BVB have plenty of attacking players on good form such as Mario Gotze and Marco Reus, but the star of the show is Robert Lewandowski. The Polish international has scored nine BL goals and made three more, and he has scored five goals in his last three games against Bayern.

Dortmund really need a win to keep their title hopes alive, and they seem to be Bayern's kryptonite. If you fancy Dortmund based on their recent record against Bayern, backing them in the Draw No Bet market at 3.45n/a may appeal, as the draw provides insurance. Bear in mind that BVB were just moments away from winning big Champions League games at Manchester City and Real Madrid before conceding late equalisers.

The market expects goals, but I think this game could be really tight. Bayern and Dortmund have the league's two best defences, and both of last season's league meetings ended 1-0 to BVB. Under 2.5 Goals looks chunky at 2.447/5. Both of those games were scoreless at half-time, and backing the draw in the Half-Time market appeals again at 2.427/5.

Recommended Bets: Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.447/5

Back the draw at Half-Time at 2.427/5

Back Dortmund Draw No Bet at 3.45n/a

Greuther Furth vs Stuttgart, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Greuther 3.259/4, Stuttgart 2.466/4, the draw 3.55n/a

Greuther Furth remain in the dropzone, with just one win in 14 matches. Mike Buskens' battlers
continue to struggle at home - they are yet to win in front of their own fans and they have suffered five defeats in seven games. To make matters worse, Greuther have scored just three goals at home all season.

Stuttgart were soundly beaten 3-0 by Freiburg in their last away game, but it's worth considering that Bruno Labbadia's men were running on empty after a Europa League trip to Steaua Bucharest. VfB bounced back in midweek with a 2-1 home success against Augsburg.

Stuttgart have won three of their last five Bundesliga away games, and that sequence included a goalless draw at Borussia Dortmund. I think they are more than capable of beating a limited Greuther side who have the division's worst home record.

Recommended Bet: Back Stuttgart to win at 2.466/4

Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Bayer 1.528/15, Nurnberg 7.26/1, the draw 4.47/2

Bayer are up to second after a stunning run of form which has seen them win four of their last five Bundesliga games, a sequence which has included victories against Bayern Munich and Schalke. On Wednesday they demolished Werder Bremen 4-1 at the Weserstadion - that was only Werder's second home defeat of the campaign.

Nurnberg are on a high after a 4-2 home win against Hoffenheim which was inspired by Japanese international midfielder Hiroshi Kiyotake, who scored twice. Despite that boost, Dieter Hecking's men have taken just one point from their last five away games, and I can't see them resisting an attack that is averaging nearly two goals per game.

Recommended Bet: Back Bayer -1.0 & -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.26/5

Donald McCain: Frustrated by the weather

The washout at Bangor on Saturday has caused Donald a few headaches.

Donald has to revise plans for several of his string after Bangor's untimely abandonment.

The weather is starting to become a real pain now. It's no surprise that there are fixtures abandoned in the winter - it's not a new phenomenon after all - but there are so few suitable races to run nice novices in as it is that losing a fixture like Bangor is a real blow, especially for us as it's a track I love to have runners at.

I've got plenty ready to go at the moment and it's hard enough trying to pick and choose the races to keep them apart without extra complications. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again - there are too many races for bad horses at the moment. Obviously I am in a fortunate position that I don't have too many that I can run in 0-100s but when you look at some of these fixtures, there are only half the races I can run horses in.

It's not just a weekday issue either - there are some nice races about at the weekends but some of the supporting stuff isn't what you might expect.

I see Towcester have a card next week with a 3m novice hurdle, a 2m3f novice hurdle and a 2m maiden hurdle and I think there should be a few more meetings that give you opportunities for these horses.

Talking of the weather, given what has happened in some parts of the country we have been quite lucky here, even compared to recent years. 

The all-weather gallop is still in good shape and although the schooling areas aren't always accessible, we can still school them on the all weather if needs be. Being able to keep them ticking over is clearly a big advantage when things turn bleak.

It was quite frustrating to only have one winner at Haydock last weekend as it was a meeting I had targeted a big squad for but it's difficult to be too downbeat about it as most of them ran well and a few, like Corrin Wood, exceeded expectations.

Obviously Clondaw Kaempfer was the highlight and he does look an exciting prospect - particularly as I am sure he will be a better horse on better ground. 

I didn't think Peddlers Cross was quite ready for Ascot last weekend and although I haven't got a firm plan in mind for him yet, he shouldn't be that difficult to find the right opportunity for in time.

The Big Match Tactical View: Norwich v Sunderland

Alexander Tettey has helped transform Norwich's season

Norwich have gone seven games unbeaten, and Michael Cox fancies them to extend that run.

Norwich v Sunderland, Sunday 4:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Norwich 2.166/5, Sunderland 4.03/1, The Draw 3.45n/a

After a difficult start to the season, Norwich have now settled down with a consistent side and a steady stream of impressive results - early season thrashings against Fulham and Liverpool seem like a distant memory, with famous 1-0 home victories against Arsenal and Manchester United evidence of their sudden transformation into a slid, disciplined team. They are rightly favourites for this content.

Chris Hughton has drilled his players relentlessly at getting into a good defensive shape, with two banks of four behind the ball. The two holding midfielders, Bradley Johnson and Alexander Tettey, sit very deep, allowing the opposition time on the ball in deep positions, but preventing players finding space between the lines. 

On the flanks, Norwich's full-backs will be protected well, which is crucial against a Sunderland side heavily based around width, and providing Steven Fletcher with crosses. Adam Johnson has sometimes moved to the left in recent weeks, but his predictable play on the right - always cutting inside onto his stronger foot - will play into the hands of Norwich. 

There's every chance of Norwich keeping a clean sheet here at 2.89/5 - their organisation in open play is superb, and Sunderland lack a true creator to manufacture chances from central positions. Stephane Sessegnon can be a threat with his dribbling, but against central midfielders sitting deep, he contributes little.

The on bige question mark, in terms of the Norwich clean sheet, is at set-pieces - Sunderland have a couple of fine dead ball specialists in Craig Gardner and Sebastian Larsson, while Norwich conceded a sloppy goal at Southampton in midweek from a free-kick.

Going forward, Norwich are likely to play on the counter-attack rather than seeking to dominate possession, although they'll probably have a couple of decent spells of pressure. In Wes Hoolahan, they have the creator that Sunderland badly lack. He has few defensive responsibilities and plays close to Grant Holt, drifting around to find pockets of space. 

Norwich also have attack-minded wingers on the flanks - Robert Snodgrass, much like Johnson, is too predictable with his movement, but he and Anthony Pilkington might get more space, because Sunderland's wingers can switch off and leave their full-backs isolated. Don't expect much overlapping from Norwich's full-backs, however - they're likely to stay in defensive positions, which should prevent them conceding the type of goal Fletcher scored at Fulham - drifting into the channels to collect a long diagonal pass.

My second recommended bet is slightly more ambitious - it's for Alexander Tettey to score. The Ghanaian-born Norweigan international is a defensive midfielder, but against Southampton he showed a willingness to break forward into attack, catching the opposition off-guard. He's also happy to strike from long-range when given space - which he might afforded against this Sunderland midfield - as shown by his shot that led to Grant Holt's winner against Arsenal.

Because he's yet to get off the mark for Norwich, the market might not truly reflect his attacking capabilities, so backing him to open the scoring at 40.039/1 or more would be a decent bet.

Overall, I struggle to see many goals in this match - neither side will take command of the game, and both lack reliable sources of goals other than their main striker. It's also worth considering fitness levels - this is both clubs' third match in nine days, and neither manager has rotated significantly in recent weeks. Sometimes tiredness can lead to defensive lapses and late goals, but often it simply means less attacking ambition and fewer off-the-ball runs towards goal.

Overall, this is Norwich's match to lose - I just hope they're not saving their best performances for big games, as the wins over Arsenal and Manchester United might suggest.

Recommended bets:
Back Norwich to keep a clean sheet at 2.89/5
Back Tettey to open the scoring at 40.039/1

Jonathan Roy Tops Field of 1,173, Wins WPT Montreal

Jonathan Roy wins massive WPT Montreal event (Photo: CanadaPoker.com)

It has been an historic couple of weeks for poker in Canada, with the World Series of Poker Circuit recently making its first ever stop in Vancouver and the World Poker Tour triumphantly returning to Canada for this week's WPT Montreal event. Both tournaments saw fields of more than 1,000 players participate, and in both cases local players took the titles, with John Crncic of Vancouver winning the WSOP-C event and Jonathan Roy of Boucherville (a Montreal suburb) winning WPT Montreal.

We reported on Crncic's victory here a couple of weeks ago in which he overcame a field of 1,032 at the River Rock Casino Resort in Vancouver to win a WSOP-C ring and $288,382 first prize in the $1,675 buy-in Main Event. Crncic also earned a spot in the 2012-13 WSOP National Championship that will take place at the conclusion of the current season in May 2013 at Harrah's New Orleans.

Whereas the WSOP-C event in Vancouver saw mostly Canadians take part -- and a final table comprised solely of Canadian players -- the WPT event in Montreal attracted many players from the United States and around the world. It was the first time the WPT has visited Canada since 2008, and a whopping 1,173 players entered WPT Montreal at the Playground Poker Club in nearby Kahnawake, well exceeding expectations for the event. With a $3,000 buy-in (Canadian dollars, worth just slightly more than USD), the prize pool added up to $3,412,930 (C$), making the tournament one of the largest in WPT history and one of the biggest ever staged in Canada.  

The top 117 finishers made the money, with several familiar names among those who did including Mark Radoja (111st, $5,451), Ken Aldridge (99th, $6,134), Xuan Liu (86th, $6,813), Marc-Andre Ladouceur (53rd, $10,901), Dan Smith (42nd, $12,605), Christian Harder (30th, $14,989), Mike McDonald (27th, $17,714), Timothy Adams (25th, $17,714), Jason Koon (22nd, $17,714), Bruce Buffer (19th, $17,714), Amanda Musumeci (14th, $25,211), and Ashton Griffin (13th, $25,211).

After two Day 1 flights and two more days of poker, the fourth and final day began with the six-handed final table where Sylvain Siebert of Ontario began the day with the chip lead with more than 8.8 million followed closely by Jeff Gross of Michigan. Meanwhile, returning to the shortest stack among the final six was Gavin Smith, a native of Ontario currently living in Las Vegas, who began his fifth WPT final table with just over 1.6 million.

Also coming back to a short stack of about 2.4 million was Peter Kaemmerlen who would in fact commit all of those chips in the very first hand with Jd-Jh and find himself up against the Ah-10d of Gross. The flop and turn were safe for Kaemmerlen, coming nine-high, but the Ad on the river paired Gross and sent the New Yorker out in sixth place.

That hand catapulted Gross into the chip lead momentarily, but he was soon overtaken by Pascal Lefrancois of Sainte-Therese, Quebec when the latter scored a big double-up through leader Siebert. That hand crippled Siebert, and it wouldn't be long before he'd push all in from the small blind with 6c-5d, get called by Roy in the big blind with Qc-Qs, and after Seibert failed to improve hit the rail in fifth.

Smith continued to battle with his short stack, doubling up once through Gross.  But eventually he was all in and at risk again with Ad-5s versus Roy's Kc-7s in another blind-vs.-blind battle. The 8d-8s-2c flop was okay for Smith, but the 7d on the turn put Roy ahead. The river was the 3c, and Smith finished fourth.

The remaining trio would battle for three more hours, with much of that time spent with Roy and Lefrancois battling for first position with big stacks of 14 million-plus while Gross endured in third. Then Gross scored a big double-up through Lefrancois when the pair got all of Gross's stack in on a Qc-Qs-7h flop and Gross had pocket sixes to Lefrancois pocket treys. Two cards later Gross still had the best hand and had moved into second position just ahead of Lefrancois.

Over the next hour Gross slipped back, however, and after a few more hands was open-pushing for just under 2.5 million from the button and getting called by Roy in the small blind. Gross had Kd-Qc and Roy As-Qs, and after the flop brought an ace Gross was already drawing dead by the turn to be eliminated in third.

Heads-up play began with Roy in front with just over 19.1 million while Lefrancois was just under 16 million. The two would play nearly 30 hands, with Lefrancois gradually edging out in front himself. Then came a huge preflop all-in confrontation that saw Lefrancois hoping his 6h-6c would hold versus Roy's Ks-Qc. But the flop brought a king and the turn a queen, and suddenly Roy had nearly all of the chips while Lefrancois had fallen below 1 million.

All in on the next hand with 8c-3h, Lefrancois saw Roy turn over Ks-Jh, and again the community cards were good for Roy, coming Kc-4d-Jc-Qd-9d to give Roy the hand and the title.

2012 WPT Montreal final table payouts (C$):
1.  Jonathan Roy -- $779,210
2.  Pascal Lefrancois -- $470,920
3.  Jeff Gross -- $317,450
4.  Gavin Smith -- $211,745
5.  Sylvain Siebert -- $146,360
6.  Peter Kaemmerlen -- $113,155

The win marks the biggest cash by far for Roy, a relative newcomer to the poker tourney scene whose first cashes came in 2011. That three-quarter million dollar payday is more than 10 times his previous best score for winning a preliminary event at EPT Monte Carlo in April of this year. For his win, Roy also earns a spot in the $25K WPT World Championship that will conclude Season XI in May 2013 at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, Nevada.

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Jamie Lynch's Hennessy Preview: A character reference book

Tidal Bay winning at Sandown in April

Despite what the old curmudgeons tell you, there are still some characters in the game, and Jamie Lynch profiles one of them who's rolling back the years and aiming at the Hennessy.

'I have been commissioned to write an autobiography and I would be grateful to any of your readers who could tell me what I was doing between 1960 and 1974.' 

The brilliant Jeffrey Bernard, king of the racing writers, did manage to join some of the dots for a priceless collection of his columns entitled Low Life: A Kind of Autobiography, which is a sweet-scented nugget amid the manure pile of life stories available. You can usually tell how good, or more often how bad, an autobiography will be just from its title. 

There are the generic pretentious ones such as 'My Way' or 'Honest'; there are the cheesy ones like 'Making Waves' by David Hasselhoff or 'Don't Hassel The Hoff' by David Hasselhoff; there are the prosaic ones such as 'Hitting Back' (Andy Murray) or 'Losing My Virginity' (Richard Branson); and then there are those involving desperate puns, principally Shane Richie's 'Rags To Richie' or, as if Alan Titchmarsh wasn't unbearable enough already, and brace yourself for this, 'Trowel And Error'.

And every now and then there's one that hits the mark, like 'The Hardest (Working) Man In Showbusiness', documenting Ron Jeremy's very particular body of work. 

Racehorses compile their own biography, in its strictest sense of self-documentation and achievement, through their race-record. Their character is up to us to decipher, but some clearly have more of it than others, and, as such, some horses' full autobiographies would be more readable than others. 

I've managed to get my hands on one such manuscript, on the verge of being published, and, in terms of equine characters, it's a biggie, probably the biggest of all. 'High And Low Tidals: Racing Through My Mind' tells the story so far of Tidal Bay, ghost written by Brough Scott. Here's an excerpt - detailing the 2010 Betfair Chase - of a defining day for this flawed genius of a horse, one of the game's great thinkers: 

Daybreak. The sun, though brightening the sky, along with my mood, was unable to penetrate the winter blanket that Mother Nature had draped across the expectant Durham meadows that November night. 'It's very cold, isn't it?' I said to my next-stabledoor neighbour, Striking Ambition. 'I don't know, I can't feel it,' he replied. I knew it was a big day because Howard had on his best overcoat, the one with the velvet collar. He had schooled me well, but today I was going to be the one teaching a lesson.

Howard and I hadn't been getting on like before. It was a running battle; I disliked running and he liked a battle. I had given Howard and Graham everything, including winning days at Cheltenham and Aintree, and yet here I was, once their pride and joy, left feeling unappreciated by the weekly influx of new and expensive younger models they paraded in front of me at the yard. I needed to remind them of what I could still do, without rewarding them in full. It's a fine line between love and hate, between first and second, and I intended to tread it. As we left the stables, through the recently-replaced gates, I knew what I had to do.

Seeing Imperial Commander, the Gold Cup winner, in the paddock was the cherry on the revenge-chilled cake, because my plan needed a proper horse like him. I gave a wink to his rider, Paddy. We always got on well, Paddy and I. Kindred spirits. 'You're like two peas in an effing pod,' Howard used to say. Brian rode me these days, and I almost felt sorry for him as he climbed aboard, unaware that he'd have a harder race than me. Going through the slow motions is easy, but knowing when to isn't. That afternoon, at Haydock, I got it just right. As others began to flag, I put on the brakes and waited until Imperial and Paddy had a big enough lead before I gave the controls back to poor Brian. There was a point I thought I'd underdone it, and that I might even catch them, but the old head-on-one-side trick bought me a bit more time. A fast-finishing second, hot on the heels of Imperial Commander, was job done as far as I was concerned. 

On coming back in, Graham had on that nervous smile he wears. Howard just sneered. My message hadn't got through. I'm going to have to go through all this again, I thought. Again and again and again... 

The fact that Tidal Bay is such a character, and has seemed to hold a bit back in his time, in part explains why he's still got so much to offer at the age of almost 12, when he should, by rights, be past his sell-by date. But, gradually revitalised by Paul Nicholls, here Tidal Bay is, in better form and mood than for years, carrying top-weight in a Hennessy, with a big chance of winning it. 

Success in a Grade 3 Chase (likewise off top-weight) at Sandown at the end of last season and a Grade 2 Hurdle at Wetherby at the start of this one have suggested that we can now put the word 'reformed' before his steadfast signature of 'character'. Yes, he still has the Timeform squiggle, because there are just too many previous offences to be taken into account, and yes each one of his 18 rivals in the Hennessy is younger, with fewer miles on the clock, than him, but, as the handicap scale shows, he's the best horse in the race, and only three others are within a stone of him.

That's the other point: it's not a great Hennessy. Second-season chasers are the fad, understandably so after what Cue Card, Al Ferof and Silviniaco Conti, amongst others, have achieved in the last month or so, and clear-favourite Bobs Worth is tied in with two of those, 1-0 against Cue Card and 1-1 with Silviniaco Conti in match-ups last term prior to his RSA win at Cheltenham. Bobs Worth comes here cold, though, which may not be ideal for one who took time to warm to his jumping last season, and beyond him there are no obvious up-and-comers for Tidal Bay to worry about. Not that much worries him by now, I wouldn't think. 

It's ironic that Tidal Bay has ended up with Nicholls, who tried to buy him over six years ago at the sale Graham Wylie forked out 300,000 for him, a sum that Tidal Bay has repaid twice over in win-and-place prize money. It's also perhaps ironic that Tidal Bay will take to the same course, on the same day, for the same team, as the mighty Big Buck's. I say that because, for me, there probably isn't much, besides the odd chromosome, between Tidal Bay and Big Buck's. 

Both are cut from the same-styled cloth, both have outstanding ability, but one is a giver while the other is self-centred, or at least he was. Instead of being a great character, Tidal Bay could have been simply a great, but he may still succeed where Big Buck's failed in winning a Hennessy, making for a dramatic epilogue to a fascinating autobiography.     

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Home and Away: Back Porto to punish Braga once again

Life is good for Les Canaris this year

Jonno Turner looks to round of another successful week by going in search of his sixth and seventh winners from 10 picks.

We're off to France for our penultimate pick of the week - and Nantes host Noirt at the Beaujoire Louis Fonteneau, looking to make it six wins from seven games.

Les Canaris are sitting pretty in second place in the table, and boss Michel Der Zakarian will be delighted with his sides performances so far this campaign.

Seven clean sheets from their last nine outings underlines just how strong the hosts have been in recent weeks, and the Pays de la Loire side will be desperate to continue that momentum as they welcome a struggling Niort side who sit just one place outside the drop zone ahead of this one.

The visitors have not yet won a league game since gaining promotion from the third tier last season, and boss Pascal Gastien will be keen to arrest that slump here.

But the away side have not won a Ligue 2 encounter on the road since 2007 - and that hoodoo shows no sign of clearing anytime soon.

Les Chamois have only managed half a dozen goals away from the Stade Rene Gaillard this year, and that suggests that they are struggling for quality in the final third.

Not many sides travel to the Fonteneau and leave with anything at the best of times - and I think that the visitors' lack of goals and momentum will cost them dearly here, so I'm backing the home win.

Bet 1: Nantes (HOME) @ 1.68

Switching our attentions to Portugal now, and it's a top of the table clash, as leaders Porto travel to third placed Braga, aiming to maintain their unbeaten start to the season.

The visitors have been in faultless form this campaign, winning eight of their opening 10 games, and smashing a whopping 26 goals in the process.

Boss Vitor Pereira will be delighted with that return - but it is not just the attacking prowess of his squad which has caught the eye, as his rearguard have conceded just six goals all season.

These two sides met in the league on Saturday, and the visitors ran out 2-0 winners - and although this is a cup game, they will be just as keen to secure victory here.

Four consecutive wins going into this tie will have confidence high down at the Estadio do Dragao, and the Portistas have not lost a game on their travels since March.

Hosts Braga go into this game having lost four of their last five outings, and and ten goals conceded in that time suggests that the home defence could be in for a torrid time this evening.

The Arcebispos have lost their last two at the Estadio AXA - not the best preparation for this game, and Porto's comfortable win at the weekend will have hurt Jose Peseiro's side.

In fact, history heavily favours the visitors in this fixture - and they have won the last eight consecutive meetings between these two sides.

Bet 2: Porto (AWAY) @ 2.28

The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Liverpool

Rodgers versus Villas-Boas - who will come out on top?

Two bright young managers face each other at Stamford Bridge - Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle.

Tottenham v Liverpool, Wednesday 7:45.

Match Odds: Tottenham 2.486/4, Liverpool 3.052/1, The Draw 3.613/5.

Andre Villas-Boas and Brendan Rodgers found themselves in similar positions this summer - taking over big clubs from established, old-school Premier League managers, and trying to get their sides playing proactive, passing football. 

They're young, they're media-friendly, they both use technical footballing terms that prompt laughter from those unconvinced of their abilities. Both men worked under Jose Mourinho at Chelsea, but both cite Pep Guardiola's Barcelona side as a major influence, and will defend poor results this season by relentlessly defending their 'project'. The clash of the two football philosophers should produce an exciting game at White Hart Lane.

Both sides will seek to dominate possession, although both have played increasingly purposeful football in recent weeks. Liverpool are getting the ball to Luis Suarez more quickly, while Villas-Boas dared to play a 4-4-2 away at the Emirates, although Emmanuel Adebayor is still banned as a result of his red card there, meaning Jermain Defoe will play upfront tonight, with Clint Dempsey behind.

Equally important to the balance of play will be the level of pressing. Luis Suarez is the best centre-forward in the league in terms of leading closing down from the front, while Defoe and Dempsey committed the majority of Spurs' fouls in the weekend win over West Ham, illustrating their commitment to the defensive cause. Both sides have good ball players in defence, too, which will encourage each other to close down.

But the timing of this match is problematic - sandwiched between league games, and with both sides having competed in the Europa League last week (albeit with rotated sides), fitness levels come into play, and the sides might be more reactive than their managers would desire.

The midfield zone will be key. As always, Rodgers must decide whether he wants to play a '1-2' or a '2-1' in midfield - one solid holder with two bombing on, or two deeper and one outright creator? It's been tricky to predict his selections so far this season, but I think he'll want to rotate his side, and Jonjo Shelvey might get a game at the top of the midfield triangle, pressing and fighting high up the pitch without the ball.

Villas-Boas' big decisions have often concerned his front two, but Defoe is a certain starter after his brace at the weekend, while Dempsey played well enough to keep Gylfi Sigurdsson out of the side. Instead, the Portuguese manager must decide whether to start Mousa Dembele in the centre of midfield - the Belgian has appeared as a substitute in the last two matches, gradually returning from injury, but is he fit enough to start? In a midfield zone likely to be fast and technical, he'll surely be favoured over Tom Huddlestone if he's anything close to fully fit.

Elsewhere, the key battle will be down Tottenham's left, and Liverpool's right. There, Raheem Sterling will trouble Jan Vertonghen with his direct dribbling  - Vertonghen is a fine defender and has coped well by being played (slightly) out of position at left-back, but against quick wingers like Nani and Theo Walcott, he's encountered problems. 

However, Sterling's defensive abilities are more questionable - he works hard, but can have lapses in concentration, and you wonder how much support he'll offer Andre Wisdom against Gareth Bale. Alternatively, Rodgers might choose to use Glen Johnson in his preferred position at right-back - rather than on the left - that should lead to more security.

I think Tottenham will get a result here - confidence should be high following the weekend win, and the quick trio of Bale, Defoe and Aaron Lennon should be able to sprint in behind the Liverpool defence. Backing Tottenham at 1.84/5 in the Draw No Bet market sounds good.

Recommended bet:
Back Tottenham in Draw No Bet at 1.84/5

I'm A Celebrity Betting: Time is right for Haye to be knocked-out

Can the Hayemaker go all the way, or will he be eliminated tonight?

Simon Hopper previews tonight's elimination market and believes David Haye could be about to exit...

Eric Bristow was the latest campmate voted off I'm A Celebrity last night - which we flagged up at 2.0621/20. The darts legend has become known as the 'numbers man' because of his uncanny ability to predict what will happen in the show - and he tipped David Haye to go all the way in his coming out interview last night.

But I disagree and think Haye could be in trouble tonight. Here's my take on the final three ahead of tonight's elimination...

Charlie Brooks (Elimination Odds: 1.75/7): Charlie is hot favourite to go after facing Eric in the bottom two last night. However, that was the first time she's been in the danger zone all series so it would be foolish to write her off now. Also we should see more of her tonight as the exit of Eric - a big character in the jungle - should increase her airtime. And with no celebrity having been in the bottom two twice in a row so far, I think Charlie's got a good chance of staying.

David Haye 3.3512/5: David is Eric 'numbers man' Bristow's tip to win the show, but I'm not so sure. He's been in the bottom two twice already - which is more than Charlie and Ashley - and he survived last night due to the spike in votes you get from being in the bottom two the previous evening. The 'bottom two-safe-exit' trend has already been followed by Hugo and Mr. Bristow this series and at 3.3512/5 I'm happy to chance David being voted off tonight.

Ashley Roberts 3.9n/a: Ashley is now the only contestant never to have been in the bottom two and she continues to go from strength to strength. It's impossible not to like her and she gets plenty of TV time (wonder why?) - so there's no reason to think she'll be in trouble tonight.

Verdict: Based on trends from this series, Charlie will get a spike in votes tonight so she's not as likely to be departing as the market suggests. David has already been in the bottom two twice and at 3.3512/5 he offers the better elimination vale.

Recommendation

David Haye To Be Eliminated @ 3.3512/5

Timeform Dubai SmartPlays: Jebel Ali, Friday, November 30

Stephen has picked out three bets from Jebel Ali

Another profitable week last week with Famous Warrior scoring at 9/1 and Timeform's Dubai Handicapper, Stephen Molyneux, will hope to keep the ball rolling with three more selections from Friday's meeting at Jebel Ali...

Doug Watson really kick started his season last week with a trio of winners over the weekend and he looks set for a profitable meeting at Jebel Ali this week. Hopefully he will start in the best possible manner with his Karma Chameleon taken to land the opener at 10:05 on the back of a highly promising run at Meydan 6 days ago when chasing home Profondo Rosso. It was a big step up on his first outing in Dubai and a resumption of the progress he had shown for John Berry earlier in the year. He was set loads to do last week, which is a concern at this different track where it is far harder to come from off the pace, but he's not a horse that's needed to be ridden with that much restraint in the past and his strong-travelling nature lends itself to this dirt surface (has won on fibresand). 

Watson could easily have had another couple of winners by the time Hacienda lines up at 12:35 and this one looks to have leading claims of potentially adding to the tally. He has finished runner-up on both his outings to date this season, beaten by Straight Talk (runs in the 10:35) first up then chasing home Mutual Force over 9f last time. That trip stretches him and he certainly travelled like the best horse at the weights that day so everything looks in place for a big run dropping back to 7f here. 

The maidens have been easy to solve so far this season and hopefully the 13:05 that concludes proceedings is no different. Tlaad is interesting having made his debut in the Dee Stakes back in 2011, but he's not been seen since then and ready preference is for Qannaas who has the form in the book and a pedigree that shouts dirt performer. He was trained by Charles Hills this year and it's fair to say he did look a touch quirky in failing to get off the mark, particularly when beaten at long odds-on at Thirsk in July. The positives are that he's been gelded since his final start which will hopefully straighten him out, but perhaps more importantly is the switch to dirt given he is by Hard Spun out of a mare who finished second in a Grade 2 in America. There are plenty of other good dirt performers amongst his siblings and he has been found a very presentable opportunity for his first start in Dubai. 

RECOMMENDED BETS:
Back Karma Chameleon in the 10:05 at Jebel Ali
Back Hacienda in the 12:35 at Jebel Ali
Back Qannaas in the 13:05 at Jebel Ali

Players Championship Finals Betting: It's time to get Chizzy

Chisnall can prosper following favourable draw.

Jaymes Monte looks at the best bets for the Players Championship Finals at Minehead this weekend...

Although a Major tournament in its own right, most of the top players will openly admit to seeing the Players Championship Finals as a big stepping stone on their way towards the World Championships at Alexandra Palace next month.

That said, the prizes on offer this weekend should not be underestimated. Not only is there a major title up for grabs, but last year's winner Kevin Painter gained a wild-card into the 2012 Premier League largely on the back of his success here.

Heading into the event we are presented with unprecedented odds of 4.3100/30 on Phil Taylor lifting the trophy on Sunday night. The Power has failed to deliver in each of the last three majors, lost out to Dave Chisnall and Michael van Gerwen in ProTour event finals at the weekend and hasn't won a title in front of the TV cameras since July. Taylor has suffered slumps in form before, but these are uncharted waters.

Of course the man doing most damage to Taylor's reputation as darts' kingpin is Van Gerwen, who continued his rich vein of form by winning his seventh ProTour title of the season at the weekend, and making it back-to-back wins over the world number one in the process. The young Dutchman is a 5.69/2 chance this weekend and should thrive in a tournament that requires the victor to win five matches in three days.

Yet the draw makes it difficult to advise a bet on MVG, or a number of the top players for that matter.

Such is the nature of the seeding for the Players Championship Finals - based on results in Players Championship events only, rather than world rankings - that a number of fancied and form players are grouped in the same half of the draw.

Form players Van Gerwen, Simon Whitlock, Wes Newton and Robert Thornton are all drawn in the bottom half alongside Taylor, Gary Anderson, Adrian Lewis, Andy Hamilton and defending champion Kevin Painter. Leaving the top (opposite) half of the draw wide open.

Chisnall goes into this weekend as the number one seed and appears to have reaped the benefits of his success on the floor this calendar year. He opens with a fairly comfortable match against Wayne Jones before facing either Colin Lloyd or Peter Wright in the second round, and I can see him reaching the semi-finals without breaking sweat. There he'll meet one of several threatening players, but he does have by far the simplest route to the last four and looks a very good bet at odds of 11.010/1 this weekend.

Also in the top half of the draw, I like the look of James Wade who appears to be overpriced at 23.022/1. Yes, The Machine has had his problems in recent months, but he was in good spirits at the Grand Slam earlier this month and at the odds he has got to be worth taking a chance that he will rediscover some level of form.

Finally, a word of caution to anyone considering backing world champion Adrian Lewis at odds of 21.020/1. Although he has been drastically out of form lately, I had contemplated backing Jackpot with the hope that the difficulty of the draw - Taylor is a potential second-round opponent followed by Van Gerwen in the quarters - might serve to focus his attentions. However, with the birth of his first child imminent Lewis has openly - and understandably - admitted that his attentions aren't fully focused on the oche.

Hopefully Lewis Junior makes an arrival shortly and Adrian can then focus fully on a third consecutive world title.

Recommended Bets
5 points - Back Dave Chisnall @ 11.010/1
2 points - Back James Wade @ 23.022/1

Racing Post Greyhound TV Tips: Jack can keep us smiling

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"Champion Stakes winner Smiler Jack could hardly have been better prepared in his bid to win another major prize at the Essex venue after sluicing home in a pre-event competition and despite a middle draw will be hard to beat in the fourth heat (20:50). He rates the best bet of the night. Indeed, an ante post wager at around 5.04/1 is also suggested"

The first round heats of the Essex Vase hold pride of place on Racing Post greyhound TV on Friday night. Darrell Williams searches out the best bets plus highlights the best bets tonight at Hove and Henlow.

The first round heats of the Essex Vase hold pride of place on Racing Post greyhound TV on Friday night. Darrell Williams searches out the best bets plus highlights the best bets tonight at Hove and Henlow.

Champion Stakes winner Smiler Jack could hardly have been better prepared in his bid to win another major prize at the Essex venue after sluicing home in a pre-event competition over the 575m course and distance last week and despite a middle draw will be hard to beat in the fourth heat (20:50). At first glance a draw in trap four appears a concern, but Chris Mosdall's Wimbledon raider has an unblemished record in traps three and four over the CD and rates the best bet of the night. Indeed, an ante post wager at around 5.04/1 is also suggested.

Lenson Ginger reserves his best efforts at Romford for when he is clad in trap one, which augurs well for his claims in the first heat (20:02) with Tony Collett's charge taken to make all the running.

With early paced rivals Brave The Times and Slippery Patch unlikely to do each other any favours from wider than ideal draws, Mark My Words, who has posted a brace of good trials over the trip, can use his obvious class to good effect in the second heat (20:18)

Mountjoy Orion is hard to dislodge when she traps at Romford, which she usually does, and can make all at the expense of kennelmate and Leger finalist Blonde Fletch in the third heat (20:34).

Heat five (21:06) is without doubt the toughest of the night to solve, but with Rockview Sail facing a potentially tricky draw, reigning champion and multiple CD winner Westmead Maldini is given a tentative pick ahead of progressive Droopys English.

Romeo Patriot looks sure to appreciate the step up to 575m and can claim the final heat (21:24) for Nottingham based David Firmager.

Improving puppy Wilson has been in excellent form at Henlow in recent weeks, but faces a far stiffer test against Any Dak at Henlow tonight with Hazel Kemp's runner, expected to make all the running, rated  the best bet of the night for their meeting over 460m at 21:15. 

Springdale Hawk won well over the 550m trip after poaching an early lead a fortnight ago and can follow up for Mark Wallis (22:03), while Savana Reg, who caught the eye in defeat last week, appears to have been found an easy opportunity in the Maiden Stayers contest (20:42).

Layers are directed towards Pantone Ava in the finale over 692m at 22:18. David Mullins' bitch, a TV Trophy finalist last month, has proved less effective here than elsewhere in the past and with Kent Leger winner Crinkill Jewel likely to take all the beating looks worth taking on.

Guinness Smokie has been a dog to keep on the right side of in sprints at Hove this season - often winning at fair prices - but while the odds are unlikely to be too generous tonight, he gets a strong vote to ensure RPTV guest Seamus Cahill is amongst the winners tonight (19:46)

Kennelmate Islas Scolari despite a defeat at Wimbledon last week remains one to follow and can also add to Cahill's joy by winning the Puppy race (20:50), where Hollyoak Oliver looks the obvious forecast link.

Britania Ardbeg (20:18) looks sure to take all the beating if reproducing his CD run from two weeks ago in the 475m contest (20:18), while Parkwest Angel can use her early speed to good effect to claim the 'Ladies' race at 21:56.

Recommended Bets
Guinness Smokie 19:46 Hove (Thu)
Any Dak 21:15 Henlow (Thu)
Smiler Jack 20:50 Romford (Fri)
Smiler Jack ante post Essex Vase

Newbury Placepot: Thursday, November 29

Venetia Williams has a good chance with Houblon des Obeaux

Timeform's Tony McFadden attempts to land the Placepot on the opening day of Newbury's Hennessy meeting...

12:25- The Cesarewitch winner Aaim To Prosper is obviously an interesting recruit to hurdling but, as an eight-year-old, he is starting his new career at a late stage and whether he will prove to be a natural over obstacles is unclear. The percentage call is to take him on with a couple of proven contenders in Kings Lad and Meganisi. The former caused a bit of an upset at Wincanton last time, turning over a long odds-on rival, while the latter should be suited by dropping back in trip having seemingly failed to stay on his latest two outings.

12:55- Despite the numbers, this looks like a competitive race and we may need to keep a couple onside to secure progression. Parsnip Pete is the first horse to concentrate on. Tom George's charge often shaped well over hurdles but he already looks like a better chaser, justifying support at Haydock when running out a smooth winner. His bold jumping should stand him in good stead today and he holds solid claims. Howard's Legacy was also an impressive victor over fences last time, jumping accurately to score on his seasonal reappearance at Ffos Las. He is also included in the 'pot'.

13:30- A winner on his last three outings, Ivor's King may not have finished improving and should make another bold bid here. He completely dominated his rivals at Ascot last time, racing with plenty of zest out in front, and looks up to defying another rise in the weights.

14:05- None of the runners can be ruled out in this fascinating affair and we will include both Houblon des Obeaux and Harry Topper. The former is the obvious call having made a seamless transition to chasing, winning on both starts, including in Grade 2 company last time. Testing ground suits the Venetia Williams-trained novice and he should go well. Harry Topper is another that can boast a decent level of form on bad ground and, having made a winning start over fences at Exeter recently, is entitled to plenty of respect.  

14:40- Alvarado made a winning start on his bow for the Fergal O'Brien yard at Wetherby, finishing strongly in the closing stages to get on top close home. Today's extra distance should suit him ideally and he is the first horse that makes the perm. Cedre Bleu has possible stamina doubts hanging over him, but he is on a tempting mark and could be the type to go well fresh, so he also makes the shortlist.

15:15- Undoubtedly disappointing on his seasonal return at Aintree, Vendor is taken to bounce back to form over the C&D where he made such an impressive start to his British career. He went on to finish third in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival and a repeat of that form should see him involved in the finish. Edgardo Sol is another horse that finished placed at the Festival, this time in the County Hurdle, and he is arguably the most consistent and reliable among today's performers so he is also included.

Selections:
12:25- 1, 2
12:55- 1, 4
13:30- 1
14:05- 4, 5
14:40- 1, 2
15:15- 1, 3
= 32 lines

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Timeform Radio Tips: One For The Staff

Both of Richard's bets run at Taunton

Richard Hoiles picks out his two best bets from Taunton.

Some promising horses on show at Newbury today but Taunton looks of more interest from a betting perspective starting with Al Alfa (14:50). The winner of a point in Ireland he moves into handicaps for the first time coupled with the introduction of a tongue tie. He has given the impression that he has more ability than he has so far displayed over hurdles to date, most notably last time at Exeter when he looked to be ridden more with an eye to going handicapping than getting as close as possible on the day.  The stable had three winners on Monday and all looks set for a better effort from Al Alfa today.

Just over half an hour later For The Staff (15.25) can once again advertise the training skills of Jackie Du Plessis. Her record under Rules reads 9/44 for a profit of 28.18 and an actual to expected winner ratio of 1.68. For The Staff was no match for Desperate Dex at Chepstow but given the form of the winner the 6lb drop by the handicapper looks generous and has enabled him to run in this 0-100 Handicap against an exposed and quirky bunch of rivals.

Recommendations:
Both at Taunton

Back Al Alfa in the 14:50
Back For The Staff in the 15:25

King George News: Keighley Court-ing Kempton dream

Champion Court will run in the King George.

Martin Keighley is looking forward to running Champion Court in the William Hill King George VI Chase following his stable star's seasonal reappearance at Ascot on Saturday...

All roads lead to Kempton on Boxing Day after Champion Court, rated 157 by Timeform, finished second to William's Wishes, giving the winner 20lb, in a 17-furlong handicap chase.

It was his first run since being runner-up to leading Gold Cup contender Silviniaco Conti at Aintree in April.

"He's come out of it fantastic. He was bright and well straight after the run," said the Condicote handler.

"It was a good first run back. He just bumped into one well-handicapped on that ground.

"It was a great performance and he pulled a mile clear of the rest, giving them all weight as well.

"He goes straight for the King George now and has a good four weeks. That will put him spot on. Hopefully he will put up a good show."

Champion Court can be backed at 40.039/1 for the King George, with Long Run presently heading the market at 4.67/2.

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Leicester v Derby: Foxes look too strong for the Rams

The Foxes defence looks well organised

The Foxes should continue their promotion push with another victory, says Andy Tongue...

Saturday 1st December 17:20 GMT
Live on SKY Sports 2

After a flurry of second-half goals saw us land both recommended bets in last Saturday's tea-time clash between Derby and Birmingham, there's another juicy Midlands derby in store as the Rams visit high-flying Leicester.

Leicester

Expected by many pundits to be involved in the promotion chase, the Foxes haven't let us down and have occupied a top six spot for most of the season. Their home form has been the reason for this - they've picked up seven wins from nine matches, losing just one, scoring 20 times and only conceding six.

Nigel Pearson's side are full of impressive physical specimens, which plays with power and a purpose that few visiting outfits have been able to match. They will be keen to get back to winning ways after Tuesday's 1-0 defeat at Elland Road and should be boosted by the return of leading scorer David Nugent, who missed that game with a neck injury. Leicester have lorded it over their East Midlands rivals recently, doing the double over them in each of the last two seasons, and their fans will be confident of enjoying more bragging rights this Saturday evening.

Derby

It's been a game of two halves thus far for Nigel Clough's team. At home they have lost just the once but away they have only managed a solitary victory, and that was courtesy of an injury-time strike at struggling Ipswich. Their group of talented young players have been able to express themselves at Pride Park where they have found the net regularly but it has been a different story on the road, managing a mere seven goals in nine matches.

Recent trips to in-form South London pair Crystal Palace and Millwall ended in defeat in their last two away fixtures and there's little obvious reason why the outcome should be much different at the KingPower Stadium, with manager Clough admitting this week that his men have lacked the confidence to create enough chances when removed from their home comforts.

Match Odds

The home side are priced at 1.75/7 in the outright market which is probably fair enough given the teams' respective home and away records but if you prefer to look for a little more value than backing Leicester to be winning at half-time and full-time pays 2.6213/8 which is tempting. Given the visitors' poor goalscoring record on their travels this season, it also would make sense to have a punt on the Foxes to win to nil at the best price available.

Recommended Bets

Back Leicester to be winning at half-time and full-time at 2.6213/8
Back Leicester to win to nil

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Friday November 30

Our final selection runs at Musselburgh

Today we have two bets from Newbury and a Saint Andrew's Day special from Musselburgh...

We kick off in the 13:30 at Newbury, a handicap chase restricted to conditional riders. As you'd expect, there are a fair number of in-form types, but none would be as unexposed at Ballywatt. Although placed in Irish points, Ballywatt has run only four times under Rules, seemingly just learning over hurdles last winter before showing up much better when a close third at Bangor on his chasing debut. That race was over slightly further than today's contest, so it's perhaps significant that Ballywatt appeared to travel best, even leading briefly before he ran out of puff close home. The fact a tongue tie has been deemed necessary today suggests that possibly wasn't purely a fitness issue, but even so it can't be denied that Ballywatt has more room for improvement than just about anything in the race.

We remain in Berkshire for SmartPlay number two, in the Pertemps Qualifier at 14:40. Bakbenscher has understandably been popular overnight, though with the fancy prices about him fast disappearing it's worth pointing out just how good a prospect Ballybough Pat is. Practically all of his form to date looks strong, having now-useful hurdlers behind on his first two starts before tasting defeat for the first time in the Persian War at Chepstow last month. He finished runner-up to a very good prospect from the Nicholls yard at Chepstow and, although the proximity of outsider Lienosus in third looked somewhat conspicuous at the time, that one has since done his bit for the form by running well at Haydock. It's interesting that connections have chosen the handicap route for Ballybough Pat at this stage, presumably seeing a BHA mark of 132 as well within his grasp, and we think he could be the breakthrough horse for his up-and-coming trainer, Anthony Honeyball.

Just 15 minutes later we're at Musselburgh, hoping that a useful Flat performer can transfer some of that ability to hurdles now he's been switched to handicaps. The horse in question is War Poet, who finished fifth in the Old Newton Cup during the summer yet starts life in handicap hurdles from a BHA mark of just 108. Strictly on the bare form of what War Poet has achieved over timber so far, that mark looks fair enough, but he never had the gun put to his head in novices and wouldn't need to reach anything like the heights he's hit on the level to make a mockery of his rating. We have faith in David O'Meara conjuring the required improvement, even if War Poet disappointed on his most recent Flat run, which came on the back of a short break.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Ballywatt @ 5.85/1 in the 13:30 at Newbury
Back Ballybough Pat @ 5.04/1 in the 14:40 Newbury
Back War Poet @ 3.65n/a in the 14:55 at Musselburgh

Paul Nicholls: The views of my runners at Newbury today

Paul saddles seven runners at Newbury today

Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls saddles no less than seven runners at Newbury today. Here he talks exclusively about each one...

12:30 Newbury - Saphir Du Rheu

Is owned by The Stewart Family and apparently was bred by a certain Claude Duval; Andy knows the Sun's racing correspondent very well, but I didn't think that he had a French breeding sideline. But they probably have a lot of time on their hands, these hacks. Anyway, more seriously, we bought this horse after he finished third at Autueil in September, so we obviously haven't had him too long and are still getting to know him. The form of that race is not working out too well - the first two home have beaten well beaten since, though the fourth home has won since - but we like what we see of him so far.

It is too early to tell where he sits in the juvenile pecking order here but I must stress though that he is not a Triumph horse in the mould of a Samtegal or a Far West; he is a lovely, big, scopey, gorgeous horse who is a chaser in the making. But we think a bit of him and this may not be the strongest of Newbury juvenile contests, though there are a couple of decent sorts in here from the Flat. We will know more after today, though.

14:05 Newbury - There's No Panic

Won well at Fontwell and Fakenham after a lengthy lay-off, and I thought he was weighted to go well in a handicap at Cheltenham last time. And he was going ok before he landed on top of the last ditch, and was pulled up afterwards. The step down in trip on soft ground should be fine for him here, but he clearly has a mountain to climb off levels against the likes of Dynaste.

14:40 Newbury - American Trilogy

We know what we have with American Trilogy, namely a horse who is handicapped up to his best, but is capable of a decent show when things fall his way. He ran ok on his reappearance, and has been dropped 1lb for that. He should be sharper for the run and his fourth at Haydock in May showed us he can handle soft ground. But the ground drying out will probably be in his favour over this trip. Has place prospects with Harry claiming off him, but probably nothing more.

Curtain Razer

Is a half-brother to Irish Grand National winner Hear The Echo, won both his points in 2011 and made a highly encouraging hurdling debut when second to Gullinbursti over 2m6f at Exeter. On that form, he would look fairly weighted off 122 here. But it is obvious that he didn't really progress from that run and has had his problems, though he did run well here back in March. Clearly has ability if we can get him right, and hopefully a breathing operation in the summer will have helped in that regard.

15:15 Newbury - Tataniano

Has fragile legs, and has had plenty of problems in the past couple of years, so is clearly not going to make up into the top class chaser that he once promised to be. And we clearly expected a lot more from him at Chepstow on his reappearance. But I wasn't totally downhearted by that run, as I said here before that race that I suspected that he probably needed 2m4f these days. The positives are that he gets that chance here, is back on the same mark as when winning at Chepstow last season and goes well enough on the ground. But clearly we can't be confident after his reappearance run.

The Knoxs

This is a horse with a lot of ability, and 2m4f on soft ground on a left-handed track are probably his ideal conditions. And a breathing operation in the summer is hopefully another big positive as to his chance today. He took time to get the hang of jumping when he first came to us but he showed us his fencing potential chasing when winning a handicap, on good ground, at Ayr in April. Is 6lb higher today, but he goes well fresh and hopefully there is more to come from him.

15:45 Newbury - Sound Investment

Looked set to win on his point to point debut at Punchestown in February, before falling at the last. We bought him at the Newbury sales the following month, and we thought he would need the experience, both physically and mentally, in an Aintree bumper last month. And he did, travelling really well into the race before getting a bit tired. Has schooled well at home in preparation for this, but he will much better over further than this in future starts.

***

Fancy a free bet? Simply opt-in, place a 10 treble at Newbury today & get a free 10 treble to use at Newbury tomorrow!

Torneo Inicial Tip Sheet: Lanus' title hopes to go down the River?

New River Plate boss Ramon Diaz

With just two rounds of fixtures to go Ed Malyon previews the action in the Torneo Inicial, and our man believes the title could be decided this weekend if Lanus fail to beat River Plate...

Friday

Godoy Cruz v Quilmes - 20:00

These two side occupy the bottom two berths of the form table in Argentina's Torneo Inicial and will just be hoping for the season to draw to an end. Quilmes arguably need a result more as they are battling against relegation in the three-year points average table, but Godoy Cruz will have the boost of a new manager and their good home form.

Martn Palermo has taken over in Mendoza and despite having no experience of management there is hope of a rejuvenation for the Tomba, and they're still 2.02 favourites despite him having never coached a professional team in his life.

If the league was decided on home form, Godoy Cruz would be eighth, and the long journey for Quilmes is likely to play a part. Unfortunately though, it is impossible to back hosts having lost their last four games and being winless in eight, so no bet here.

Coln de Santa Fe v Argentinos Juniors - 22:15

Just three points separates these sides in midtable and it's hard to read anything into this late-season clash. The inclination is to go with the hosts, not just because of the home advantage playing up in Santa Fe, but also because they have Emmanuel Gigliotti up front who keeps on scoring goals, but they actually have one of the worst home records in the division and this one looks like the best value will be in backing the draw at 3.211/5 with a view to laying.

Racing Club v All Boys - 00:30

Racing's title bid is over, but their fans will be expecting them to beat All Boys at El Cilindro this weekend.

Their great success this season has been the introduction of their talented youngsters to the side, and if the experienced heads that Luis Zubelda had brought in had performed to their capabilities then they could have been going into this game still with a chance at glory.

As it is, there's nothing to play for except pride and a hatred of All Boys. The Floresta side are renown for their no-nonsense (read: dirty) playing style and their was bad blood between these two sides recently when Racing's star player Giovanni Moreno was seriously injured by a reckless challenge by Albo midfielder Hugo Barrientos.

The hosts are quite short at 1.8810/11 but are just about backable, and while they doubtlessly have enough ability to win, it may be worth watching the first five and backing them in-play if the desire is there.

Saturday

River Plate v Lans - 21:00

This could be the game where the Torneo Inicial title is decided, as Lans are likely to have to win to keep their hopes alive with rivals Vlez two points ahead of them and facing rock-bottom Unin at the same time.

There is a bit of a grudge match feel to this game in some ways, as it was this exact fixture, and a Lans victory, which sent River Plate to the relegation playoffs in the summer of 2011 and eventually to their historic demotion. River have not had a great campaign on their return to the top flight, but the chance to deprive Lans of a title could well be some consolation.

River sacked manager Matas Almeyda this week after a below-expectations season, and have moved quickly to replace him with Ramn Diaz. The debate over Diaz' abilities is best left for another day as he won't be in the dugout today and it is hard to know what effect this will have on the side.

While Lans 3.211/5 have all the desire to win this, in what is the first of two cup finals for them, River have found themselves with quite the draw habit this season, tieing eight of their seventeen games and five of their last six.

All things considered, it is probably wisest to lay the hosts, whose worldwide name tends to make them a shorter price than they should be anyway.

Belgrano v Tigre - 21:00

This could be the best bet of the week thanks to Thursday evening's turn of events. Belgrano need to win to maintain their chances of the title - hence the tri-simultaneous kick offs - and Tigre ran themselves into the ground in Bogot this week as they qualified for the Copa Sudamericana final. There's no doubt that the visitors will be riding a wave of euphoria but the league won't feel like their focus this week, and what was already a very tough game will be much harder with those lagging legs that spent so much time defending against Millionarios in midweek.

1.9310/11 seems a good price for the Pirates to grab a home win, but the title dream will likely be taken out of their grasp by events in Liniers.

Arsenal v Boca Juniors - 00:15

Neither of these sides have too much to play for, with Arsenal already qualified for the Copa Libertadores and Boca virtually there too. Julio Csar Falcioni is going through a kind of inverse honeymoon period where everyone knows he will not be Boca manager when they come back in January and he has suddenly started winning games. By finally discarding some of the aging, ponderous players that he'd persisted with in the early part of the season, he made space in his side to test his young pibes and they have passed with flying colours; particularly young playmaker Leandro Paredes and the energetic Pol Fernandez.

Arsenal have won their last three on the spin, but frankly they were playing rubbish opposition, and Boca will be far more of a test. Last year's champions have sold a couple of their key players but Lisandro Lopez has remained. The central defender is destined to be a star in Europe, but until then he continues to save the Sarand side's defence and will be key in trying to shutout Boca - as they did in the Copa Argentina final that finished 0-0 a few weeks ago.

Lay Arsenal at 3.211/5 or back the unders for this one, with it likely to be tight.

Andrew Flintoff v Richard Dawson: Freddie's ready for big fight night

Flintoff makes his pro boxing debut on Friday night

Andrew Flintoff makes his much publicised professional fight debut on Friday night. There's little form to go on but Sumeet Paul paints the picture...

Cricketer-turned-boxer...it isn't quite the sporting evolution that many expected of Andrew Flintoff.

The reality of the former England and Lancashire all-rounder's new quest will become brutally apparent when he steps into the ring for his first professional fight on Friday night. Under the watchful eye of former featherweight world champion Barry McGuigan, the two-time Ashes winner takes on American Richard Dawson after months of intense training.

Can he silence the doubters with an assured, and more importantly, winning performance? Flintoff is available to back at 2.526/4, with Dawson at 1.8810/11 and the Draw at 12.011/1.

Boxing promoter Frank Warren has described the event as 'car-crash television', while Flintoff himself was reportedly left visibly disturbed having left a sparring partner rocking with what
McGuigan calls 'his big right hand'. While the Manchester Arena saw a hero fall last weekend in an ill-fated comeback, Flintoff is determined his foray into the boxing world doesn't end in similar fashion.

At 34 years of age, he has dismissed speculation that the fight is merely a TV stunt, and revealed the training and preparation involved has been the hardest thing he has ever done.

Aside from McGuigan, Flintoff has also gathered expert advice from the likes of Sugar Ray Leonard and Mike Tyson, with the American boxing legends visiting him in the gym during his training for the bout and lending him some words of encouragement.

In contrast, little is known of his opponent, with 23 year-old Dawson unbeaten in his two pro fights thus far. However, the Oklahoma native who speaks of his tough upbringing as the inspiration behind deciding to don the gloves, was quick to point out that the four two-minute rounds fight is no joke and he will be heading to Manchester to win.

"I definitely want to knock him out. I'm not going to play with him, I want to get in and out. I don't have time to put on a show because we're in his town and I don't trust the judges."

With a spot in the commentary box on hold, Flintoff hopes to make the unnatural progression from padding up, to receiving and dishing out pain, taking a leaf out of Adam Hollioake's book after he ventured into the MMA world back in April.

He knows the task ahead will be ferociously different from his past and is intent on performing well not only for himself but to uphold the reputation of his much celebrated trainer.

Doubts remain as to whether it will produce a successful outcome, having been fast-tracked into the professional domain, the former England cricket captain will have a tough time persuading the expected 5,000 in attendance and those watching on TV he is cut out to make it in the boxing world.

Having battled depression and grown restless in his enforced retirement, Flintoff is back but is taking a huge gamble by stepping in the ring.

Recommended Bet

Back Andrew Flintoff @ 2.3811/8

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Follow The Money: Scholastica could be taught a lesson at Uttoxeter

Will you be Following The Money today?

Today's three Follow The Money selections come from the meetings at Newbury and Uttoxeter.

We get under way with the opening 12:25 race at Newbury, a 2m Novices' Hurdle in which there has been decent support for Meganisi who has shortened into 3.45n/a from 4.57/2. An interesting looking race in which dual Cesarewitch winner Aaim To Prosper makes his debut over obstacles but, although respected, at 8yo he's leaving it a bit late in his career. Meganisi has arguably the best form on offer and will appreciate today's drop in class having been well beaten in a Grade 3 Handicap last time out. He was placed at Listed level on the flat and today's going should hold no fears having won on heavy at Wincanton back in May. If repeating that effort he should go close today.

Next up is the day's negative which can be found in the opening 12:45 race at Uttoxeter in the shape of Scholastica who has eased out to 2.35/4 having been as short as 1.784/5. Both market and form suggests this a two-horse race with the selection and My Flora the main protagonists. The selection showed up well for a long way on her hurdles debut only fading in to third near the finish and she should progress from that. She seemed okay on the soft ground that day but a look at her bumper form would suggest better ground would suit better. The same could probably be said of My Flora too, but she was a prolific winner in points where she handled heavy ground well and was placed in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. In short, Scholastica may find herself outclassed again.

Our final selection comes at Newbury and in the Listed Intermediate Hurdle at 15:15 there has been good money for Peckhamecho who has come in from 15.014/1 to 7.613/2. The selection returns to hurdling today having had an indifferent time over fences despite winning on debut. The return to smaller obstacles could be a positive move having shown progressive form when last seen in that sphere, including finishing second in a Grade 2 at Ascot last December. He seems to handle most conditions and the money down suggests a big run could be on the cards.

Recommended Bets
Back Meganisi @ 3.45n/a Newbury 12:25  
Lay Scholastica @ 2.35/4 Uttoxeter 12:45  
Back Peckhamecho @ 7.613/2 Newbury 15:15 

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Wednesday November 28

Harrison George runs at Kempton this evening.

A brace of winning SmartPlays yesterday provides confidence aplenty ahead of today's selections...

Racing at Wolverhampton gets underway at 13:10, and their opening contest sees our first SmartPlay go to post. Silver Wind was in good form at this time last year as he won twice at this venue, including over this distance, and the suspicion is that he may be ready to regain that sort of form following two encouraging spins on the turf on his most recent starts. He was an obvious eyecatcher on his penultimate start at Nottingham, finishing strongly over an inadequate five furlongs, and whilst he couldn't quite confirm all of that promise at Doncaster last time he went for a long way like one that was ready to strike. He is on precisely the same mark as when winning 12 months ago and is taken to enter the winners' enclosure once more. 

Our second selection also runs at Wolverhampton, this time in the 16:20, as the James Tate-trained Dubawi Island is taken to reverse the form with Desert Creek from a fortnight ago. Conceding 11 lb to Desert Creek that day, Dubawi Island was beaten only a length and a quarter and shaped better than the bare result to boot, kicking four lengths clear early in the straight, having made the running, before being caught close home. He did too much too soon that day and, conceding just 6 lb to his conqueror today, he ought to prevail.

Harrison George (19:00) was very useful at his best when trained by Richard Fahey and, after a winless 2011, he returned to form for his current yard over seven furlongs at this venue last month, being only narrowly denied by Alraased. The seven-year-old found five furlongs too sharp on his latest start but there was still encouragement to be gleaned from his effort, as he was outpaced in the early stages of the race before running on, without being knocked about, towards the finish. He is expected to bounce back this evening and can take advantage of his BHA mark of 87, which strikes as being fairly lenient.  

Timeform SmartPlays
Back Silver Wind @ 8.27/1 in the 13:10 at Wolverhampton
Back Dubawi Island @ 4.67/2 in the 16:20 at Wolverhampton
Back Harrison George @ 7.413/2 in the 19:00 at Kempton

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Scudamore confident Dynaste is no Soft touch

Dynaste made an impressive start over fences at Cheltenham

Jockey Tom Scudamore is confident testing conditions will hold no fears for Dynaste at Newbury on Friday...

The high-class staying hurdler made a most impressive start to his chasing career with a victory over Fingal Bay at Cheltenham earlier this month.

The six-year-old now steps up to Grade 2 level and faces some smart opponents in the Fuller's London Pride Novices' Chase.

Scudamore said: "All has gone well at home since his first run.

"It's obviously another tough race - you wouldn't expect anything else - but he's a top horse and he's going to be running in these top races. The ground is going to be soft but that wouldn't really concern me."

However, Trainer David Pipe seems more hopeful rather than confident Dynaste will handle the rain-softened ground.

He said: "He came out of Cheltenham well and I think two and a half miles round Newbury should be fine for him.

"I don't think he's ever run on ground this soft but he seemed to handle softer ground when he was running in France, so we'll just have to hope for the best."

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Luke Moore: Injuries taking their toll at last season's surprise package

It's a bit glum up north currently for Toon boss Alan Pardew

Newcastle's remarkable fifth place finish in the Premier League last season hasn't been built on, and there's a few reasons for that says Luke Moore, not least injuries...

No sooner had I announced that Queens Park Rangers have a better chance of staying up than their price suggests because they were not only likely to fire Mark Hughes imminently, but they have a decent squad at their disposal in need of simple motivation, did Tony Fernandes finally hand Sparky a painting of a Spitfire and usher him out the side door with a short handshake (the Welshman is notoriously testy about that) and a fake smile.

Just about as soon as Hughes' car had disappeared into the sunset was the sound of an electric window descending heard, and all of a sudden everything wasn't just rosy in the garden, it was t'riffic.

QPR have every chance of an escape now. It's a big job but, for all his faults, when it comes to motivating a group there's no-one better than Harry Redknapp. I'm even more confident that laying the west Londoners at 1.75/7 to be relegated was a good shout.

Back to this week then. As Newcastle United let a lead against battering-ram-carrying, part-time footballers Stoke City dissipate into a 2-1 defeat in the last 10 minutes of last night's game at the Britannia, if you're a Toon Army devotee I officially forgive you for feeling a bit worried.

Last season's success story, Alan Pardew's black and white army were marching on going into their third season in the Premier League after finishing a coupon-busting fifth last time out. Rather than galvanising, strengthening and flying forwards on horseback with a blood-curdling battle cry though, the north-easterners are starting to do a pretty good impression of the first team I can think of that are actually suffering from third season syndrome.

We've had plenty of teams down the years suffer from second season syndrome, a combination of other teams working out how to play against a team as well as the almost subconscious inertia experienced when groups of players and sometimes even managers and coaching staff start to consider themselves established top-flight operators a little too early and are soon scrambling around for solutions to problems they never knew they had. Newcastle are now in their third 38-course meal at the top table in world football and all of a sudden seem to have forgotten which cutlery to use first as well as which way to pass the port. So what's gone wrong?

Well in short, injuries. Lots and lots of injuries. And not just any old crocks, but injuries to key players during winnable periods of the season.

At various stages since the beginning of the season, United have lost blond-bombshell-and-key-defender-in-chief Fabrizio Coloccini, jinky wonderkid Hatem Ben Arfa, teenage-heartthrob-and-player-of-genuine-quality Yohan Cabaye, one-man-A-bomb Cheick Tiote as well as both Taylors, Dan Gosling, Demba Ba and adult, footballing mascot Shola Ameobi. That's some list.

But it is not just the injuries they've suffered, it's the time of the season they've suffered them.

Newcastle have won just one of their last nine games (their only point in their last five matches coming in a 1-1 draw at Liverpool, a team that, without Luis Suarez, could play constantly without a final whistle from now until May and manage less than five goals) including confidence-sapping defeats both at home and away to promoted sides, exactly the sort of games that Pardew and his coaching staff would have ear-marked for wins without question.

The Magpies have been shown to have a pretty threadbare squad, and are playing without any sort of confidence whatsoever. The way they've been conceding goals has been easily avoidable with a bit of leadership and belief, something that has gone walkabout since the loss of senior players.

Also, Newcastle have been a victim of their own success. In finishing fifth last season they qualified for the interminable Europa League, and the Thursday-Sunday grind is starting to take its toll. They just don't have the bodies or the quality of player in enough depth to compete on both fronts, and for every decent win against Bruges or Bordeaux it seems there's a poor result in the league to pay at some point. As we've seen time and time again, winning and losing in the league can easily become a habit.

Next up in the league for Newcastle is Wigan at home. At first glance it looks an easy game, but Wigan have actually been playing ok recently. They were the better side in the first half against Man City last night and should have gone into the break ahead. It was the same story at Anfield.

The Latics also beat Reading and went to Spurs and won, so St James's Park will hold no fear for them. Newcastle are so low on confidence at the moment and so short of personnel, I can't see where their next win is coming from. Back the draw at 3.412/5.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw @ 3.55/2 in Newcastle v Wigan

The 80/20 Bet: Thursday, Newbury 12:25

Newbury is the venue for today's 80/20 bet

It's the start of the three-day Hennessey meeting and Nick Shiambouros has gone to the very first race for this Win and place selection...

Today's 80/20 is Kings Lad in the 12.25 at Newbury. This gelding beat Mr Mole in good style at Wincanton earlier this month. He took the lead two flights from home and pulled clear to win easily.

He is clearly going the right way and could give the short priced favourite plenty to think about in this fascinating race. At present he is trading at 4.94/1 on the exchange.

Timeform Daily: Gerry Feilden Hurdle, Thursday, Newbury 15:15

Rock On Ruby won this contest last year en route to Champion Hurdle glory

Timeform provide you with a runner-by-runner guide to an interesting hurdle won last year by Rock On Ruby...

Edgardo Sol mixed hurdling and chasing last season, landing Red Rum Chase at Aintree in April, but below that form in Scottish Champion Hurdle and Haldon Gold Cup since and needs to bounce back here.

Peckhamecho was a useful hurdler and looked good recruit to chasing when winning Stratford maiden in September, but has failed to build on that since and returns to timber after making mistakes at Exeter last time.

Vendor won over C&D on British debut and all the rage when third in Fred Winter in March. Won novice event at Towcester in April and can't have been right on Aintree return. Worth another chance.

Valid Reason won twice at up to 2m late last year and further progress when staying-on second to General Ting in 2m Sandown handicap in the mud earlier this month. Up 3 lb but should remain competitive.

Call Back is a bumper winner who has taken well to hurdling, winning at Bangor in March and Cartmel in June, though didn't need to improve for latter success, and has shown signs of temperament along the way.

Lyvius is an ex-German performer who landed 2 of first 3 hurdle starts for Nicky Henderson. Well held in Aintree Grade 1 when last seen, but remains one to view positively and likely to go well on return.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Lyvius
2. Vendor
3. Edgardo Sol

Timeform View: Lyvius was well held in a Grade 1 on his final start last term, but starts this campaign on a fair-looking mark as a result and remains a promising sort. He's given the vote over Vendor and Edgardo Sol.

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SPL: Can Inverness CT and co maintain Celtic pursuit?

Will Celtic be celebrating retaining the SPL title come May?

Rangers' disappearance from the SPL was supposed to spell disaster for Scottish football, but instead the SPL is more competitive than ever before...

When the ailing SPL lost one half of its greatest attraction in Rangers, many thought it would be the final nail in the coffin with regards to the appeal of Scotland's top division.

After all, how could the likes of Motherwell, Inverness CT and Hibernian be expected to offer any semblance of competition to the mighty Celtic?

Fast forward four months and the reality, at least for the moment, is a more competitive division than has been witnessed since Celtic finished fourth in 1994/95 (and even then Rangers were dominant champions).

Celtic are top, but only on goal difference from Inverness, with just two points separating the top half right down to St Johnstone in sixth place.

However, Celtic's place in the SPL winner market remains unshakeable at 1.081/12 with Hearts, currently seven points off the pace down in ninth place rated next best at 21.020/1.

So is there any value there in laying the Scottish champions at 1.091/11 or is the fact that they have remained just about in control while struggling a more ominous sign than ever for the perpetual also-rans?

By Celtic standards, Neil Lennon's men have had a poor start on the domestic frontier, already drawing four matches - one more than they did all of last season - while losing three times, compared to only five defeats in their 2011/12 title-winning campaign.  

One obvious factor contributing to their domestic stumblings is Celtic's success in the group stage of the Champions League.

By putting themselves in the frame for the last 16 for the first time since qualifying in 2007/08, the Bhoys have undoubtedly had their attentions turned from matters SPL.

Nevertheless, history shows that sustained involvement in Europe has not nudged them off course in the past, as in 2007/08 and 2006/07 - the last two times that they qualified for the knockout rounds - green and white ribbons were tied around the SPL trophy.

Perhaps a bigger issue is actually down to Rangers' absence. Without their cross-city nemesis to keep them on their toes, a complacency and lack of drive may have crept into the champions' game.

Before, the Hoops would always have the pressure of matching the Gers' results, especially if they were playing after their rivals, as any noticeable points gap could have damaging psychological implications.

It would be wrong to take anything away from the other sides though, as having one giant to slay instead of two seems to have spurred them on.

There's a long way to go, but in the most unusual of SPL seasons, a cheeky lay on Celtic may prove to be a stroke of genius, especially if they go on to achieve progress to the latter stages of the Champions League.

Backing Hearts at 6.611/2 to overcome 1.654/6-rated Celtic at Tynecastle tonight may hold more immediate value however.

The 80/20 Bet: Tuesday, Lingfield 14:30

Lingfield is the venue for today's 80/20 bet

Just one meeting has beat the weather today so Nick's Win and Place selections comes in the Handicap Hurdle at Lingfield...

Today's 80/20 is Ya Hafed in the 14.30 at Lingfield. This gelding finished second to Just Beware at Plumpton earlier this month. He was headed two from home but kept on in good style to hold on to a place.

He appears to be running in to form and should handle the underfoot conditions. I think he will go close at a fair price. At present he is trading at 5.14/1 on the exchange.

Timeform US SmartPlays: Thursday November 29

Timeform bring you three bets on Thursday

Timeform's US team are in good form, winning with all three selections yesterday, and they bring you three more bets on Thursday...

Aqueduct race 4 (18:57 GMT) win back #9 TO THE POINT at 5.04/1 or longer
Finger Lakes race 6 (19:30 GMT) win lay #1 MIGHTYLOVER at 3.55/2or shorter
Turfway Park race 4 (23:59 GMT) win back # 5 SOK SOK at 4.03/1 or longer

Get FREE Timeform Star Ratings & Comments for the US & Canada at http://www.timeform.com/free/.