Assessing different clay court conditions and strong returners on clay

This clay court tennis betting strategy article focuses on the differing court conditions across the schedule, and the records of strong return players on clay, to identify betting opportunities.

With the ATP & WTA tennis schedule moving from hard court to clay court tennis bettors should be aware of the differences.

Clay events have very different characteristics to the harder surfaces, with fewer service holds, fewer aces and generally much longer rallies. Clay matches are arguably a stronger test of a player’s fitness level than other surfaces. 

The table below illustrates the significant difference in service hold percentage and aces per game between clay courts and other surfaces:

Surface

2 Year mean service hold %

2 Year mean aces per game

ATP

Clay

75.7

0.35

Hard

79.4

0.55

Indoor Hard

80.8

0.58

Grass

83.6

0.65

WTA

Clay

61.9

0.19

Hard

63.8

0.25

Indoor Hard

63.1

0.26

Grass

69.6

0.31

With the difference so evident in the table above, the following table highlights the court speed of each ATP & WTA event for the clay court schedule in 2015 (sorted from fast to slow):

ATP Tournament

Category

2 Year Serivce Hold %

Deviation from Clay Mean %

Madrid

1000

80.2

4.5

Gstaad

250

78.6

2.9

Munich

250

78.2

2.5

Rome

1000

77.7

2

Houston

250

76.6

0.9

French Open

Grand Slam

76.4

0.7

Nice

250

75.5

-0.2

Barcelona

500

74.7

-1

Bucharest

250

74.6

-1.1

Kitzbuhel

250

74.2

-1.5

Hamburg

500

73.5

-2.2

Bastad

250

73.2

-2.5

Casablanca

250

72.4

-3.3

Monte Carlo

1000

72.1

-3.6

Oeiras

250

71.1

-4.6

Umag

250

70.9

-4.8

Bettors should use this information in conjunction with this previous article, which looks at court data for fast and slow courts.

What the clay court data suggests

Interestingly the Madrid Masters/Premier - one of the biggest events on the clay calendar – appears at the top of both the ATP and WTA Tour and clearly has very fast conditions, which is likely to suit bigger servers. It will almost certainly not play as a traditional clay court. 

Conversely, Bastad has low service hold percentages for both Tours, and conditions in Sweden appear to be very slow indeed. This is also the case for both clay events in Morocco (ATP Casablanca and WTA Marrakech).  These events will favour the traditional clay courters.

ATP Gstaad - played at altitude - unsurprisingly shows up as a fast court, although surprisingly Kitzbuhel - which is also played well above sea level - does not.

How strong ATP & WTA returners perform on clay

Particularly in the ATP, certain players have a strong preference towards clay or hard surfaces, which results in a big difference in their results between the two surfaces.

We identified in previous articles how to tell a player who is stronger on return than serve by using the formula (service hold % - break opponent %), with lower figures indicating the player is strong on return. 

From our list of the top ten ATP strong returners, only Matt Ebden isn’t considered close to a clay-courter – meaning the list highlights players who favour clay courts.

In comparison the WTA list is far less biased towards clay-courters, and only Chanelle Scheepers, Sara Errani, Estrella Cabeza Candela and Lourdes Dominguez Lino would be considered much better on the dirt.

The table below illustrates the records of strong ATP and WTA returners on clay in their last 50 matches on the surface, with Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices being used from a £100 hypothetical bet on each players’ match:

Player

Last 50 Clay Matches

Wins

Win %

P/L

ROI

Andujar

50

28

56

446

9.5

Monaco

50

29

58

-453

-9.2

Lorenzi

50

26

52

-741

-16.5

Fognini

50

35

70

1073

21.9

Ferrer

50

39

78

345

7.2

Berlocq

50

32

64

1018

20.8

Ebden

23

6

26

-1075

-71.7

Falla

50

25

50

-761

-16.9

Garcia-Lopez

50

30

60

1444

28.9

Gabashvili

50

31

62

1914

40.7

ATP Returners

473

281

59

3210

6.8

Beck

50

30

60

-836

-16.7

Scheepers

50

28

56

354

7.1

Errani

50

39

78

378

13.1

Radwanska U

50

19

38

-64

-1.7

Hsieh

50

23

46

-574

-27.3

Dolonc

50

24

48

146

5.6

Cabeza Candela

50

27

54

-636

-20.5

Niculescu

50

24

48

-466

-12.6

Koukalova

50

26

52

-868

-18.1

Dominguez Lino

50

33

66

354

7.5

WTA Returners

500

273

55

-2212

-4.4

It’s clear that ATP strong returners have an edge on clay, returning 6.8% from 473 matches. And If we filter out Ebden, who was identified as a player who doesn’t favour clay courts, this increased to 9.5%. 

On this basis, it appears that the markets are under-rating ATP clay courters who are strong on return.

The WTA players list is much more random, and the betting success evident in the ATP is not replicated on the women’s tour. 

However, of the four women’s clay courters previously identified, three - Sara Errani, Lourdes Dominguez Lino and Chanelle Scheepers - were the most profitable from the sample.

Even when including Estrella Cabeza Candela - who has dropped to 300 in the world - they generated a return of investment of 2.25%.

Clay Court betting strategy

The data indicates that clay courters whose strength lies on return are clearly under-rated by the pre-match betting markets and bettors should factor this into their decision making in subsequent clay court tournaments this year.

In addition, tennis bettors should take notice of the differing clay court conditions and note certain events fluctuate quite dramatically from the clay court mean.

Factors to consider before betting the biggest fight in history

On May 2nd Floyd Mayweather fights Manny Pacquiao in the biggest fight in boxing history. This Mayweather vs. Pacquiao betting preview looks at factors to consider before betting, the odds, and our unique promotions.

Tale of the tape

Floyd Mayweather and Filipino, Manny Pacquiao are considered the best two fighters of their generation.

After years of talking the mega fight will finally see Floyd put his WBC and WBA welterweight titles on the line against Pacquiao's WBO at the MGM Grand.

Below are the head-to-head stats for each fighter:

Coming into the fight Pacquiao beat Chris Algieri on a unanimous points decision in November, but lost twice in 2013 - to Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez.

Mayweather meanwhile, whose unbeaten record stretches back to 1996, has won his past five bouts on points, most recently a rematch with Marcos Maidana in September.

Where the fight could be won and lost

Every boxing fan and bettor will have an opinion on where the fight could be won and lost. We’ve broken down a couple of key areas to see if there is an advantage for either fighter.

Does Mayweather struggle against Southpaw fighters?

Ever since Mayweather was originally accused of ‘ducking’ a fight with Pacquiao, there has been a stigma surrounding his ability to fight against southpaws.

Promoter Bob Arum was quoted, "I promoted the guy for 10 years, and I know how difficult it was to get him in the ring with any southpaw."

The reason behind the assumption is that Floyd pins his chin against his left shoulder and often stands with his front turned to his right.

This works well against an orthodox fighter as the power punches come from his right towards his left shoulder, which guards his chin.

The potential problem comes when the power punch comes from his left. Despite mastering the art of rolling to his right and then countering, his ageing years could make him more vulnerable.

However, he has been training with Zab Judah, so you can expect him to enter the ring with a plan.

Southpaw vs. Orthodox

Like other bouts that have seen a southpaw take-on an orthodox fighter the cross - Pacquiao’s straight left and Mayweather’s straight right – could be key in determining the fight.

The Pac Man is more powerful, but Floyd is more accurate, and more flexible in the way he throws it. The Filipino has also been known to overcommit as he aims to force the pace, which could leave him open to a counterpunch.

Mayweather is renowned for his great movement, and given Pacquiao struggled to tag good movers in the past - Timothy Bradley and Chris Algieri – he will need to keep Floyd guessing by throwing a number of feints.

Pacquiao’s Angles

The peculiar angles Pacquiao throws his punches from could cause problems for Floyd, like it has done for all of his other opponents. It didn’t affect Marquez recently, but that was his fourth attempt.

Determining how long it will take Mayweather to adjust could determine which way you bet.

Work rate vs. Accuracy

Judging accurately how each fighter's style will affect the other will help picking a winner.

Pacquiao is renowned for his relentless pressure, while Mayweather is revered for his passive stick and move style. Both are effective, but which will be more successful in this fight?

Many think Pac Man can't win on points, but if the judges favour work rate over accuracy, Floyd could be in trouble.

Manny will throw six punches to land one, while Floyd will be content to throw one or two more accurate punches. If he fails to tag Pacquiao, he could struggle to pick up points, making the 4.550 odds for Pacquiao to win on the judge's scorecard more promising.

Also will the Filipino’s work rate affect Mayweather like it did against Maidana in their rematch? Floyd resorted to excessive clinching on that night to neutralise Maidana's aggression, can he employ these tactics against a faster, fitter Pac Man?

Power

Power is a leveller in most fights. Mayweather may have the single punch speed advantage, but Pacquiao has the power.

The Pac Man has 38 knockouts in his 57 fights, compared to Mayweather's 26 in 47. Pacquiao is not necessarily a heavy puncher but he has a quick hard punch, which has dropped a number of elite fighters in the past.

However since his TKO win against Miguel Cotto in 2009, the Filipino hasn’t knocked out any of his 9 opponents, while Mayweather's last six fights have gone to the judges scorecard.

The Over/Under at Pinnacle Sports sees 11.5 rounds as the marker. Odds of 1.332 suggest the bookies strongly believe the fight will last the distance. 

Mayweather to win on points at Pinnacle Sports is available at 1.840, which implies a 54.35% chance of happening.

Who has the best chin?

Both fighters’ chins have been tested throughout their careers, but Mayweather has yet to be knocked down.

In comparison Pacquiao has been knocked out three times, two of which came over 15 years ago, while the most recent was in 2012 at the hands of Mexican great, Juan Manual Marquez.

Mayweather undoubtedly has a solid chin, and following his knockout defeat against Marquez the Pac Man could be more vulnerable than ever.

Odds at pinnacle Sports give Floyd (6.960) a 14.37% chance of winning by KO, TKO or DQ, while Pacquiao is slightly shorter at 6.150.

Who wins if it turns into a war?

Pacquiao will certainly look to make this a war and drag Mayweather with him, much like Maidana did.

If it does turn in to a toe-to-toe brawl, Manny will be favoured given he has much more experience in this situation. Of course Mayweather will be aware of this and should be too clever to be drawn in.

Can either adjust their style?

It's one thing having a plan before the fight, but if things go wrong, boxers must adapt their style. Who if either, is best equipped to do this?

Pacquiao has fought on the front foot all of his career and has rarely had to make adjustments because his non-stop aggression and speed was enough to beat most.

However when facing boxers who have made him adjust, he has struggled – think Marques and Bradley.

Mayweather has shown the ability to make adjustments during a fight – against Zab Judah for instance.

What the odds say

Odds of 2.660 at Pinnacle Sports make Pacquiao the underdog, a position that he hasn’t been in since the Oscar De La Hoya fight in 2008.

Mayweather meanwhile is currently at 1.540 to remain undefeated. He opened at 1.498 this time, but when Pinnacle Sports offered odds back in 2012 ahead of a potential fight he opened at 1.529, which shows little has happened in the three years since, to change the bookmakers' opinion.

The draw can be backed at 17.00, and with the fight so lucrative it would almost certainly result in Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2. 

The biggest fight gets the biggest promotion at Pinnacle Sports

The Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight is expected to generate in the region of £162m, making it the most lucrative in boxing history.

To celebrate Pinnacle Sports are offering a number of unique boxing promotions:

Boxing bettors may me split as to who will win between Mayweather and Pacquiao but one thing is guaranteed Pinnacle Sports will be offering the best odds, biggest limits and live betting come the first bell on May 2nd.

Click here to see the latest Mayweather vs. Pacquiao odds.

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Mannarino can test Murray in desert battle

Mannarino can make life tough for Murray on Wednesday

Andy Murray looks to try and book his place in the last eight at Indian Wells on Wednesday and Sean Calvert expects the Scot to have a tricky time of it against Adrian Mannarino.

There was disappointment and frustration in the desert on Tuesday when one of my wagers fell by a single game and the other fell apart after a decent start.

Michael Berrer only needed to hold serve to land the overs against Gilles Simon after saving a bunch of match points previously, but he was broken easily by the Frenchman.

And Roberto Bautista-Agut took the opener against Jack Sock before fading badly against the portly American, who goes on to face Roger Federer tonight.

Andy Murray's chances of easing into the quarter finals today look very good indeed going on his records against left-handers and Frenchmen.

The former Wimbledon champion has only ever lost to three lefties not named Rafael Nadal (Donald Young, Fernando Verdasco and Thomaz Bellucci) and his overall record reads 60-18 - or 55-3 if you discount Rafa.

Against Frenchmen Murray is 71-15 and he's never lost to a left-hander from across the Channel so far in his career at main level.

So, that's what Adrian Mannarino is up against in his first ever match in the last-16 of a Masters 1000 event.

The pair have never met, but it's perhaps a good time for Mannarino to face Murray for the first time at a tournament that is not easy for any of the players in the wildly varying conditions.

Mannarino is having the best season of his career and much of that can be credited to Eric Prodon, who has instilled a better work ethic into the formerly lazy Frenchman.

The 26-year-old will rise to a worst of a career high 31 in next week's rankings and the 11am local time (6pm UK) probably won't be to Murray's liking, although it is set to be a little cooler on Wednesday.

Mannarino is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment and the +5.5 games on him appeals here at 1.910/11, with the Frenchman having lost only twice by that margin or more in a best of three since the French Open last spring.

Having never played each other before the 7-5 correct score in set one to Murray at 13.012/1 appeals as a big priced punt, with the Scot not really knowing what to expect from his opponent.

Interestingly, Murray has never won a match at Indian Wells against a leftie in straight sets, with two losses from four matches (Young and Nadal) and two final set wins (Jiri Vesely and Jurgen Melzer).

Elsewhere on Wednesday I fancy taking on Nadal to some degree with Simon, who having played a leftie yesterday, should be in the zone to have another crack at the Spaniard.

Gillou played pretty well for the most part against Berrer in what should have been a trickier match than it turned out to be, while Nadal was really poor despite the scoreline of his win over Donald Young. Rafa and The Don were both miles below their respective bests and a repeat from the Spaniard today may see Simon win, but a safer wager is the Handicap (betting with the Sportsbook).

The Frenchman played some great, aggressive tennis against Rafa when they met on clay in Rome last year and he's always been competitive in their best-of-three set matches.

Conditions here do suit Rafa and he has to be a good favourite tonight, but he has only won one match against a top-20 opponent since the French Open last year and he'll need a big improvement to win by five games.

So, the +4.5 game handicap wager on Simon looks the best of the rest at around 1.9420/21.

Recommended Bets
Back to lay Murray to win set one 7-5 at 13.012/1
Back Mannarino +5.5 games at 1.910/11
Back Simon +4.5 games @ 1.910/11

Premier League in Numbers: How the markets stand as the run-in approaches

19... Diego Costa shows us how many league goals he has

With an international break this week our resident Premier League previewer Mike Norman - who has netted 13 winners from his last 16 selections in his 3pms column - is a little bored, so we asked him to take a look at the table and dazzle us with some numbers...

1...

The position Chelsea occupy in the Premier League table as we enter the run-in. Perhaps a more significant number however is six, the amount of points by which the Blues lead Manchester City with just nine games to go (the chasers only have eight games to play).

Jose Mourinho's men have been matched at a high of 4.47/2 in the Premier League Winner market but you won't get any higher than 1.091/11 currently.

2...

The number of league wins Leicester City have achieved since 'that' win. A 5-3 victory over Manchester United way back in September resulted in Nigel Pearson's men being matched at 8.415/2 in the Relegation market, and at 44.043/1 in the Rock Bottom market, but just two wins in 24 outings since has the Foxes sitting bottom of the table, three points behind QPR and six points from safety.

As Michael Lintorn details here, Leicester look destined to finish the season exactly where they are now, but remarkably they aren't even favuorites to do so. That honour goes to QPR, 2.166/5; the Foxes can be backed at 2.546/4 to finish bottom.

4...

The number of league wins Sunderland have achieved all season, no club in the Premier League has recorded fewer. The Black Cats took the drastic action of sacking Gus Poyet last week and replaced him with veteran manager Dick Advocaat - the Dutchman's first game in charge resulting in a loss, without scoring, at out-of-form West Ham.

Sunderland have struggled for goals all season and it's hard to see that changing, so sitting just one point above the drop zone you can certainly see some value in backing them at 2.68/5 to be relegated. But don't do that! This author thinks Leicester are certainties for the drop, so back Advocaat's men at 3.39/4 with Pearson's men in the Relegation Double market.

6...

The position in the the table that will claim the last Europa League qualifying spot. It might not be the most desirable place to finish in the Premier League but while Liverpool and Tottenham still chase an unlikely Top 4 Finish the chances are that one, or both, will finish in the top six, and in doing so deny Southampton European football next season.

The Saints are the side that will perhaps be delighted to end a terrific campaign sixth (or better) and they can be backed at 1.684/6 - from a high of 28.027/1 - to claim a Top 6 Finish; Liverpool are available to back at 1.21/5, and Spurs at 1.774/5.

10...

The last position that allows a club to brag about finishing in the top half of the Premier League. We know seven of the clubs that will finish there but who will be the other three?

Swansea (43 points and available to back at 1.132/15 in the Top 10 Finish market), West Ham (42pts, 1.222/9), and Stoke (42pts, 1.282/7) are in the box seats currently, but in-form Crystal Palace, (36pts, 5.69/2), inconsistent Newcastle (35pts, 6.25/1), and improving Everton (34pts, 6.411/2) are all waiting in the slipstream.

19...

The number of goals scored by the Premier League's lowest scoring team, Aston Villa. But despite a weekend loss to Swansea, Villa appear to be on an upward curve under new boss Tim Sherwood.

Four goals at Sunderland and four in two games against West Brom suggest Villa are starting to find their feet in front of goal while the Black Cats - currently on 23 league goals - have netted just once in their last seven outings. At 4.84/1 to back then, Sunderland look a spot of value in the Team To Score Least Goals market; Villa are the strong favourites at 1.222/9.

And staying with 19...

Is also the number of Premier League goals scored by this season's leading goalscorers Diego Costa and Harry Kane.

The latter is in blistering form however, and having been matched at Betfair's ceiling price of 1000.0n/a in the Top Goalscorer market the Spurs hitman is now available to back at just 2.68/5. Costa can be backed at 3.185/40, and Sergio Aguero (17 goals) is trading at 4.1n/a.

62...

The number of goals scored by Manchester City, the highest scoring side in the Premier League. Chelsea have one more game to play than City and have 61 goals to their name, while just behind Arsenal have 58 goals.

All three sides are capable of scoring for fun, but with the Gunners in easily the best form of the trio do they represent a bit of value at 5.14/1 in the Team To Score Most Goals market? Chelsea, 2.0811/10, and City, 2.1411/10, head the market in what is now a three-horse race.

13,474...

The amount of times we've been told in the last week that the Premier League isn't one of the greatest competitions in the world. We're not about to increase that number by one.

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Isner to continue winning streak over Anderson

Isner can win the big-serving battle with Anderson today

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are both in action on Monday at Indian Wells and Sean Calvert foresees contrasting fortunes for the Australian Open finalists in their third round matches today...

After another up and down day at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on Sunday the men's third round begins on Monday, with Andy Murray among those in action on day five.

Stevie Johnson landed my headline tip of the day yesterday with a straight sets win over Ivo Karlovic at a nice price, but prior to that Simone Bolelli was flat as a pancake in a weak two set loss to Milos Raonic.

My main outright bet Stan Wawrinka threw in a shocker of a performance in sets one and three to lose to Robin Haase - a man who hadn't won a single match in 2015 coming into this tournament.

Furthermore, Haase had a 2-5 record at Indian Wells and a 0-6 record against Wawrinka, although I did say yesterday that the overs would be a good bet, with Stan usually slow to start in tournaments.

I didn't think it would be that slow though and Haase - as well as he played - didn't need to do too much to win the last few games of the match, with Stan committing the cardinal sin against Haase of failing to ask the choky Dutchman to serve either set out.

Today's schedule looks to offer some decent opportunities and for those happy to stay up until about 3.30am there's a chance to back Novak Djokovic to thrash Albert Ramos.

I can't see anything in the game of Ramos that will allow him to win more than a couple of games here and the 6-0 set is a distinct possibility if prices arrive on that market.

Novak has been involved in six 6-1 sets in his last half dozen matches at Indian Wells and with the largely weaponless Ramos as his opponent today the 5.59/2 about the Serb winning it by that score is well worth a back-to-lay wager.

There have been reports of Djokovic suffering with a "minor foot issue", but assuming that's all it is he should win this very comfortably and the under 17.5 games looks highly likely too at 1.9520/21.

As for Djokovic's beaten opponent in the Australian Open final, Murray faces a tricky task against Philipp Kohlschreiber, who has given the Scot plenty of problems in slow conditions in the past.

The German thrashed Murray on clay a few years ago in Monte Carlo and should have beaten him in Paris last season, but ended up losing in five, so I'm not too sure why Andy is a 1.162/13 shot here in a tournament he rarely plays well at.

Kohlschreiber has had a poor season so far, but he has been suffering with a few ailments and he looked in good nick in round one against Tim Smyczek.

The +4.5 games on the German at 2.111/10 and over 20.5 total games both appeal here, as does the +1.5 sets at 2.6213/8.

Murray hasn't exactly been Mr Consistency this season, with abysmal performances lately against Borna Coric and Gilles Simon and 1.162/13 looks a shocking price today.

I've talked a lot about John Isner in the build-up to this tournament and it was no real surprise to see him shake off the poor form of the early season and play very well in round one against Jurgen Melzer.

His transformation when he reaches Palm Springs is always remarkable and he looks decent value to get the better of Kevin Anderson in a battle of two players both well suited to conditions at Indian Wells.

Isner leads the career series 7-3 and as he plays better here than anywhere else (he also beat Anderson here in 2010) the 1.9110/11 about him recording a sixth straight win over the South African looks decent.

Recommended Bets
Back to lay Djokovic to win set one 6-1 at 5.59/2
Back Kohlschreiber +4.5 games to beat Murray at 2.111/10
Back Isner to beat Anderson at 1.9110/11

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Back Murray to start fast in Djokovic semi

Can Murray start well against Djokovic on Saturday?

The semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open are in play on Saturday, with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic going to head-to-head again, and Sean Calvert fancies an odds-against shot today...

Friday's wager never had a chance of success after a handful of games played by Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych at Indian Wells revealed an in-form Fed and a woeful Berdy.

The Swiss maestro handed out a second set bagel in a 6-3, 6-0 thrashing that few could have predicted and he moves forward to face Milos Raonic in today's second semi.

Raonic saved several match points to stave off a straight sets defeat against Rafa Nadal to emerge the winner of a near-three-hour marathon.

We start at 6pm UK time on Saturday and that in itself could provide an opportunity to side with Andy Murray to start out fast against Novak Djokovic in their 25th career meeting.

Djokovic has played all of his matches at night so far this week and this is one venue on the tour where conditions are totally different later in the day than earlier and it may take the Serb some time to adjust.

We've seen this many times at tournaments that have day and night matches and Murray has played all of his matches in the day and most at 11am local time, which is when the pair clash on Saturday.

Djokovic also hasn't played since Wednesday after his quarter-final opponent Bernard Tomic withdrew and it makes sense to side with Murray early here, with the Scot starting strongly in his matches this week.

With the slight exception of the Adrian Mannarino match Murray has looked on it from the word go and there's enough in this to take a chance on him at a tempting 3.02/1.

Murray will also be very keen to get a win over Djokovic after the shambolic way that he folded against the Serb in the Australian Open final in January when he was affected by his opponent's antics across the net.

There might also be some needle in this one because of that and the resulting comments from Murray and in a best-of-three battle there will be less emphasis on stamina.

Djokovic has to be a worthy favourite, having won the last six in a row against Murray on outdoor hard and eight of the last nine on all surfaces.

Indeed, Murray's last win over the Serb was that Wimbledon title win of 2013 and he's certainly due one, but with that record I prefer the set one wager rather than the outright win at around 3.7511/4.

The world number one's performances this week are hard to evaluate, with a fine start over Marcos Baghdatis being followed by a very scratchy showing against Albert Ramos in which he was broken twice by the limited Spaniard.

Then came a tough win over the dangerous John Isner in a match that could easily have gone to a decider and I don't think the withdrawal of Tomic has really helped him, as this is one venue that takes some getting used to.

Murray was very good indeed against an opponent that's perfect for him in Feli Lopez and that match will have given him confidence that I expect him to take into this one - for a set at least.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray to win set one at 3.02/1

WTA Betting: Back Halep to prevail against Jankovic and clinch the title

Halep looks set for glory in Indian Wells...

With Serena Williams pulling out, Abelson Info preview the BNP Paribas Open 2015 final between Simona Halep and Jelena Jankovic...

Serena Williams didn't even make it onto the court for her semi-final against Simona Halep, a knee injury preventing the world number one from taking part.

While she is expected to return in Miami next week, her Romanian rival will now look ahead to the final on Sunday having had a chance to rest up and recompose herself.

Halep did insist that she was excited about the prospect of facing the American in the semi-finals even as early as when the draw was made, but inside she will undoubtedly be delighted that she's made it through to the final in whatever circumstances.

However, it won't easy for her to claim another WTA title, as standing in her way is Jelena Jankovic who has enjoyed an impressive revival this past fortnight.

The Serbian ace battled past Sabine Lisicki in the other semi-final as she fought back from a set down to advance at the expense of the German who we thought would have enough to see off the veteran.

The former world number one wasn't to be denied and she now looks ahead at possibly capping off a successful week with a trophy to show for her efforts.

Jankovic already has one Premier Mandatory title to her name by winning in Indian Wells back in 2010, she has 13 WTA titles in total and will be confident of her chances of adding to her collection given her recent form.

Nevertheless, it will be an extremely difficult test for her as she trails Halep 3-1 in their head-to-head, with the world number three winning their last three meetings.

The last encounter came at the Australian Open last year, and although Halep seemingly has the drop on her rival, it is worth noting that all four of their matches have gone the distance.

Both players have had a difficult time of it in the tournament so far, but Jankovic has really racked up the miles after going through three-set matches in all but one of her outings.

Whether or not that catches up with her on Sunday remains to be seen as the win over Lisicki would have taken a lot out of her as Halep sat back and looked on.

The Romanian starts as the overwhelming favourite to win, but we're confident that this will at least be competitive given the pair's history over the years.

Both are in good form, and both will be desperate to clinch a title with Williams out of the picture. While there is little value in the match odds, look to the set betting and games markets for the favourable odds with Halep prevailing.

Recommended Bets
Back Halep to beat Jankovic 2-0 @ 1.9520/21
Back Over 21.5 Games @ 2.0621/20

WTA Betting: Back Sharapova to end her wait for Miami triumph

Sharapova has a favourable draw...

There's no time for rest on the WTA tour this month as Abelson Info preview the Miami Open 2015 with injury clouding Serena Williams' chances of winning...

World number three Simona Halep clinched the title at Indian Wells on Sunday, but the Romanian star has little time to bask in her glory as attention turns to Miami.

The loveable character even shared a joke with the media at her post-game press conference, as she declined to try and pick up the notoriously heavy trophy as she "wanted to play in Miami."

While she should still be fighting fit this week, the same can't be said of world number one Serena Williams who was forced to pull out of their semi-final encounter with a knee problem.

The top seed insists that she just needed to rest it for a couple of days and that it wouldn't be a long term issue. However, if it flares up again with such a short turnaround, she will be in trouble.

So surprisingly, even though she will still represent the biggest threat to everyone else in the field, it might be worth avoiding backing Williams if she isn't completely healthy as an MRI scan revealed a strain in her quadriceps tendon.

Given that she has won this tournament on seven occasions previously and will be looking for a third straight, it is undoubtedly a big risk to dismiss her chances, but looking at the competition elsewhere in the draw, there are plenty of viable options.

One thing that is for certain is that Halep is going to have to produce a sensational fortnight of tennis if she is to win back-to-back tournaments as the draw has been brutal on her.

In her quarter alone she is joined by the likes of Azarenka, Pennetta, Bouchard and Jelena Jankovic, so she certainly has her work cut out with Williams possibly waiting later in the tournament.

As a result, we're looking at the bottom half of the draw for a contender to at least emerge in the latter stages of the tournament and that search has taken us to second seed Maria Sharapova.

The Russian ace will have bad memories of Miami given that she has made the final five times in her last seven visits, but has failed to win the elusive trophy.

However, given that she has avoided all the big guns in her quarter, she can work her way back up to full fitness and get her game on point before tougher assignments.

In addition, with Williams struggling and having been the thorn in her side in Miami in multiple tournaments, Sharapova has all the incentive she needs to finally end her wait for a triumph.

Recommended Bets
Back Sharapova to win the Miami Open 2015 @ 6.05/1

Football Bet of the Day: Queen of the North to be knocked off her throne

We're all Panathinaikos fans tonight

Kevin Hatchard's looking to go out with a bang this week, and he's backing Panathinaikos to come roaring back in the Greek title race.

Veria v Panathinaikos
Sunday March 22, 17:30

I'm not going to lie to you, my friends, it's been a rough week. Our German bet ran aground yesterday, as Hoffenheim could only draw 0-0 at free-falling Paderborn. For the second time in three days, we saw a red card scupper our chances, as Ermin Bicakcic was given his marching orders. When they should have been making their final push for victory, Hoffe were battening down the hatches instead.

We need to bounce back quickly, and so do Panathinaikos in the Greek title race. Having beaten direct rivals Olympiakos and PAOK since the turn of the year, Pana hit a bump in the road last weekend, as they went down 2-0 at Atromitos. They too were on the wrong end of a red card, as Christos Donis was dismissed at the Stadio Peristeriou.

Today the Greens make the trip to relegation-threatened Veria, and although the hosts generally have a decent home record (seven wins from 14 games), their performances against elite teams in the division have been poor.

The Queen of the North (I don't make these up, I swear) hasn't been so regal of late. Veria recently lost 3-1 at home to third-placed PAOK, and 2-0 on home turf ahead the leaders Olympiakos. In six games this season against the current top four, Veria have collected a grand total of three points.

Veria's general form at the moment is also poor. They have lost their last four matches overall, and taken just a solitary point from their last four outings at the Stadio Verias. The team's defending has been highly suspect in recent weeks - they have leaked 23 goals in their last nine league games, losing seven of those matches. It's a run of form that has left them just six points above the dreaded bottom four.

Pana have won ten of their last 12 games (although one was a walkover against Niki Volos), and they are still very much in the title race. They beat Veria 2-1 in the reverse fixture, and won 3-1 on their last visit to the Stadio Verias. They should be too strong for a side that has lost form at the worst possible time.

Veria have the fourth-worst defence in the Greek Super League (50 goals conceded), and when they lose they do it in style. Ten of their 12 league defeats this term have been by a margin of two goals or greater, so that brings the Asian Handicap market into play.

Recommended Bet

Back Panathinaikos -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.186/5

2015 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 40

Points Returned: 35.64

P/L: -4.36 points

Stevie G sees red as Liverpool lose ground in CL race

Juan Mata grabbed a vital brace for United

Steven Gerrard was sensationally sent off just 48 seconds after coming on as Liverpool succumbed to a 2-1 defeat to Manchester United.

The two sides met in one of the biggest games in the English footballing calendar at Anfield. Liverpool and United are battling for the Premier League top four and the former could have leapfrogged the Red Devils if they had taken all three points.

However, it was a poor day for the red half of Merseyside as Juan Mata struck once in each half to secure the win for their bitter rivals. Gerrard's sending off in his final game against United came less than a minute after he had come on as a half-time substitute, and it was always a long way back for Liverpool from that point on.

Daniel Sturridge gave the Reds a lifeline when he scored with 20 minutes left but the home side couldn't find an equaliser, while Wayne Rooney missed a late penalty to add further gloss to the score line.

United made a really bright start to the game and controlled proceedings from the off. They dominated possession and silenced the Anfield crowd as the hosts struggled to get going.

Louis van Gaal's men took a deserved lead on 14 minutes when Ander Herrera slid Mata into the box and he made no mistake, finding the net with a low finish that came off the inside of the post.

Liverpool were slow to get going and Adam Lallana wasted their only real chance of the first half. Jordan Henderson and Sturridge did fantastically on the counter attack to create the opening, which Lallana guided wide of the post from just inside the box.

Gerrard was brought on for Lallana at half-time for what his last game against United, but no-one could have expected how short that appearance would turn out to be.

He obviously wanted to get Anfield rocking and clattered into Mata straight from the off, before he was challenged by Herrera and appeared to stamp on the midfielder. It was a crazy moment for Gerrard and the referee was quick to correctly brandish a straight red card, just a matter of seconds after he came on.

It was always going to be a tough ask for Liverpool with 10 men, and things got even tougher when Mata doubled his and United's tally with 59 minutes on the clock. He played a one-two with Angel Di Maria before hitting an acrobatic volley that found the bottom corner of the net.

Liverpool got one back with 20 minutes remaining when Sturridge was played into the box by Phillippe Coutinho and the England striker smashed a shot that took a slight deflection off Phil Jones and beat David de Gea at his near post.

The Reds tried in vain to get a second goal to drag them level but United managed the game well and prevented them building up much momentum. The visitors held firm and even had a glorious chance to rub salt into Liverpool's wounds.

In injury time, Emre Can felled Daley Blind inside the area and the referee pointed straight to the spot. Up stepped Rooney but he was denied as Simon Mignolet produced a great diving save to his right-hand side.

A controversial match ended in more controversy. United were angry as Martin Skrtel appeared to catch De Gea when going for a through ball and players from both sides squared up as Martin Atkinson blew the final whistle.

However, United thoroughly deserved the victory, which has now given them a five-point advantage over Liverpool in the race for a top-four finish in the Premier League.

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Back Murray to start fast in Djokovic semi

Can Murray start well against Djokovic on Saturday?

The semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open are in play on Saturday, with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic going to head-to-head again, and Sean Calvert fancies an odds-against shot today...

Friday's wager never had a chance of success after a handful of games played by Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych at Indian Wells revealed an in-form Fed and a woeful Berdy.

The Swiss maestro handed out a second set bagel in a 6-3, 6-0 thrashing that few could have predicted and he moves forward to face Milos Raonic in today's second semi.

Raonic saved several match points to stave off a straight sets defeat against Rafa Nadal to emerge the winner of a near-three-hour marathon.

We start at 6pm UK time on Saturday and that in itself could provide an opportunity to side with Andy Murray to start out fast against Novak Djokovic in their 25th career meeting.

Djokovic has played all of his matches at night so far this week and this is one venue on the tour where conditions are totally different later in the day than earlier and it may take the Serb some time to adjust.

We've seen this many times at tournaments that have day and night matches and Murray has played all of his matches in the day and most at 11am local time, which is when the pair clash on Saturday.

Djokovic also hasn't played since Wednesday after his quarter-final opponent Bernard Tomic withdrew and it makes sense to side with Murray early here, with the Scot starting strongly in his matches this week.

With the slight exception of the Adrian Mannarino match Murray has looked on it from the word go and there's enough in this to take a chance on him at a tempting 3.02/1.

Murray will also be very keen to get a win over Djokovic after the shambolic way that he folded against the Serb in the Australian Open final in January when he was affected by his opponent's antics across the net.

There might also be some needle in this one because of that and the resulting comments from Murray and in a best-of-three battle there will be less emphasis on stamina.

Djokovic has to be a worthy favourite, having won the last six in a row against Murray on outdoor hard and eight of the last nine on all surfaces.

Indeed, Murray's last win over the Serb was that Wimbledon title win of 2013 and he's certainly due one, but with that record I prefer the set one wager rather than the outright win at around 3.7511/4.

The world number one's performances this week are hard to evaluate, with a fine start over Marcos Baghdatis being followed by a very scratchy showing against Albert Ramos in which he was broken twice by the limited Spaniard.

Then came a tough win over the dangerous John Isner in a match that could easily have gone to a decider and I don't think the withdrawal of Tomic has really helped him, as this is one venue that takes some getting used to.

Murray was very good indeed against an opponent that's perfect for him in Feli Lopez and that match will have given him confidence that I expect him to take into this one - for a set at least.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray to win set one at 3.02/1

Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model

How do you build a sports betting model? What steps are involved? What do you need to consider? Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model, and take your betting to the next level.

What is a betting model?

In it's simplest form a sports betting model is a system that can identify unbiased reference points from where you can determine the probability for all outcomes in a particular game. 

The model will ultimately be able to highlight profitable betting opportunities, by judging a team's true ability more accurately than a bookmaker.

However, building a sports betting model can be difficult and time consuming. There are various instructions and orders advised for you to follow when creating a model, which can complicate the process.

With that said, once you have created a successful betting model it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.

Let's begin.

For this example we use an approach similar to the Actuarial Control Cycle – a quantitative risk assessment employed by insurance companies. There are five main features:

Defining the problem

Building the solution

Monitoring results

Professionalism

External forces

Step 1: Specify the aim of your betting model

This appears simple, but many sports bettors miss the point their betting model is trying to accomplish.

Without an aim you could be overwhelmed with numbers and lose focus of your overall goals.

Although you may argue you can get the data first to see if there are any patterns, this would still need to be tested against a number of hypothesis, each with a different aim.

Therefore starting with a specific, rather than a generic aim, is strongly recommended.

Step 2: Select the metric

The next step is to formalise your investigation into numerical form by selecting a quantifiable metric. 

These first two steps relate to defining the problem stage of the Actuarial Control Cycle.

Step 3: Collect, group and modify data

Every model needs data so you can integrate it into your algorithm. There are two ways of collecting data – by yourself, or by using other published data online.

Luckily, there is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service. 

Once you have the data, you may realise that there are queries that need to be taken care of.

If we are looking at Premier League teams for instance, should you consider all matches or just their league games? It's possible to make adjustments if the team in question had players missing, or had a mid-week Champions’ League clash.

This is where you can exercise your judgement, determined by what your aim is.

Step 4: Choosing the form of your model

This is where the mathematics comes into play given there are so many models to choose from or invent. 

We have proposed a number of models in the past and they can be as complex or as simple as you wish. Our recommendation is not to overcomplicate.

This step can be interchanged with step 3 as the data may lead you to use a particular model, or a particular model may require specific data.

Step 5: Dealing with assumptions

Each model will have a number of assumptions, and you should be aware of their limitations. It's not necessary for you to follow this stage but it's highly recommended.

For example a significant contributor to the financial crisis in 2007-08 was the misuse of derivatives caused by a misunderstanding of assumptions in contracts such as Collateralised Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps.

Previously in this article we highlighted how averages and standard deviations assume events are normally distributed. This for example would be tested.

Step 6: Build the sports betting model

The next step is to actually build the sports betting model. There are numerous tools to use including online calculators, Excel, MatLab, Java, R programming and VBA.

You don’t have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.

Step 7: Test the model

It's paramount that you test the efficiency of any sports betting model to understand how sensitive it is to the results.

In any case the results of the model may lead us to reconsider any of the previous steps.

The key question as always is whether or not the model is making a profit? Therefore you’d need to test that – leading you to running through the cycle again.

Step 8: Monitor results

Assuming that an adequate model has been built and tested, it needs to be maintained as time progresses. This leads us back to the starting point – defining future aims.

Applied knowledge

Understanding the processes involved is paramount when learning how to build a sports betting model. 

Quantitative modelling isn’t just about taking a model and applying it, there are a number of processes – not necessarily in the order stated – which should be completed.

Following this process won't guarantee a profit-making model, but it will ensure you are considering the fundamental aspects that are needed to build a new sports betting model. 

ATP Miami Open Betting: All about Djokovic but Berdych offers good value

Berdych can blast his way to the latter stages in Miami

Masters 1000 tennis continues this week as the ATP World Tour moves on to Miami and tennis expert Sean Calvert looks for some outright value at the 2015 Miami Open...

We signed off from what's always a tricky week in the desert at Indian Wells with a superb day that produced a couple of big-priced winners and the tour now heads to Miami.

Well, Key Biscayne to be precise, and the Crandon Park courts that are slow and the perfect conditions for Novak Djokovic to land back-to-back Masters 1000 titles.

I said in my players to watch preview a few weeks ago that this Laykold surface is one for the defenders and with Andy Murray looking impotent against the very best at the moment and Roger Federer missing it looks a fine opportunity for Djokovic again.

There will be no high bounces to aid John Isner and co. this week and those on Djokovic at a short price this week will probably walk away with a profit again.

But, no one needs me to tell them that the Serb will most likely win this tournament and once again I'm on the hunt for a viable back-to-lay option.

It didn't quite work last week with Stan Wawrinka, who had a shocker, but who does have a nice draw away from Djokovic in which to try and redeem himself in Key Biscayne.

Indeed, Wawrinka is one option in a bottom half of the draw that looks very open, but he is yet to better the last-16 in Miami and others are preferred as back-to-lay shots after the Indian Wells debacle at the hands of Robin Haase.

Stan also may well have a tough opener against Thanasi Kokkinakis and that mini-section of 16 appears tough to call.

Feli Lopez hasn't been past the last-32 at Crandon Park since 2007 and perhaps Adrian Mannarino, Kokkinakis or Joao Sousa could be ones to make a surprise run in that section of the draw?

Murray can't help but like his draw at the bottom of Wawrinka's quarter and back on familiar ground in Miami the Scot has been given a good chance to go deep in a second straight Masters 1000.

The former champion faces opponents of the calibre of Santi Giraldo, Yen-Hsun Lu, Donald Young, Leo Mayer, Sam Querrey, Marinko Matosevic and Jarkko Nieminen ahead of a potential last-16 clash with Kevin Anderson, who may be a reasonable shout to make the quarters here again.

Murray has had some trouble with the South African in the past and Anderson looks the only one capable of stopping the Scot ahead of the last eight, although looking at that draw Murray should make the semi-finals at least.

If successful in that goal Murray would most likely face either Rafa Nadal or Tomas Berdych in the last four and it could be worth taking a chance on the Czech here.

As ever with Berdych we see superb performances mixed in with some really poor stuff and the feeling that he can only really dish it out against lower-ranked opponents prevails with Tomas.

That said, he can pop up and beat the best on occasion, and he did take an admittedly rusty Nadal out comfortably in Melbourne and there's no real reason why he can't do it again in slower conditions.

Nadal and Berdych were set to clash in the semis here a year ago, but the latter pulled out, and there are still big question marks over the Spaniard's fitness at the moment.

Beaten by Milos Raonic for the first time at Indian Wells last week Nadal hasn't beaten a top-10 opponent on a hard court since January 2014 and only twice has he beaten a top-20 player in any conditions since last year's French Open.

The Spaniard has never won the Miami Open and unless something happens to Djokovic I can't see that record changing in 2015, plus reports from training in Miami have talked of a foot/ankle injury to Nadal that saw him cut a practice session short.

Berdych at around 26.025/1 and Murray at around 6.611/2 will be popular choices and rightly so given their draw and Anderson at 200.0199/1 holds some potential value.

I've overlooked the top half rather, but with Djokovic losing just one match here since 2010 in a run of 18-1, it looks fanciful to oppose him at this venue in these conditions.

Tommy Haas is the only man to have beaten the Serb here in that time and looking at the draw I would suggest that only Kei Nishikori is really capable of beating Djokovic ahead of the final.

I didn't fancy the Japanese star at all last week at Indian Wells given he has always struggled at the venue, but back in familiar territory in Florida he or Raonic look the likely semi-finalists.

I don't see Raonic beating Djokovic any time soon and not in these conditions, so Nishikori looks the best alternative wager to the Serb in a half that also sees Juan Martin Del Potro make his return to the tour.

The Argentine has been struggling with a wrist problem for a while and it's good to see him back, along with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who also returns here, and hopefully he'll stay injury-free for the foreseeable future.

In a tournament where we really need Djokovic to slip up Berdych offers the best back-to-lay value, with the Czech drawn to face nobody he can't bully until at least the quarters and possibly the final.

The Czech would have every chance against Nadal in the last eight if that match happened and then it's up for grabs in the last four, but Djokovic looks a very solid favourite.

Recommended Bet
Back to lay Berdych to win Miami at 26.025/1

Scotland v Northern Ireland: Tartan Army to march on

Gordon Strachan has a healthy record in friendly matches

Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are in fine form, but the former are far better at turning it on in friendlies...

Scotland v Northern Ireland
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1 and 5

Scotland

Gordon Strachan has rebuilt Scotland's pride in their national team by making them progressively more formidable during his two years in charge.

Excitement has also been increased by this being their third derby in a row, following a priceless 1-0 Euro 2016 qualifying victory over Republic of Ireland and a 3-1 friendly defeat to England.

The major squad news is that Bournemouth winger Matt Ritchie has been included for the first time, while the likes of Grant Hanley, Chris Martin and Ross McCormack will miss both this and the home qualifier against Gibraltar due to injuries.

Northern Ireland

It is difficult to fathom what has happened to Northern Ireland in the past seven months.

Michael O'Neill has been transformed from the brink of persona-non-grata-dom after eight winless games and four successive blanks prior to Euro 2016 qualifying to the hero who made them dream of a first tournament appearance in 30 years following three Group F triumphs in four.

The team news attracting all the attention is the impending debut of Man United defender Paddy McNair. Jonny Evans is available for his first high-profile outing since being banned for spitting at Papiss Cisse three weeks ago, though Sammy Clingan and Shane Ferguson have withdrawn injured.

Match Odds: Scotland 1.784/5, Northern Ireland 5.79/2, The Draw 3.711/4

Strachan has nailed the art of imbuing friendlies with competiveness since moving into international management. If you remove the two narrow and excusable losses to England, they have won three and drawn two of their five such fixtures under him, prevailing in Norway and Poland in that period.

Northern Ireland by contrast haven't come out on top in a non-qualifier since 2008, being beaten by Uruguay and Chile in their two over the last 12 months. Albania, Malta and Cyprus are among the nations that they have proven unable to conquer over the full near-seven years of anti-winning.

Scotland Clean Sheet

These neighbours' contrasting friendly form doesn't stop at the fact that one always wins and one never does, it extends to Scotland being masters of clean-sheet accumulation while Northern Ireland specialise in racking up zeroes.

Strachan's side have shut out four of their five friendly opponents not named England since his appointment, whereas Northern Ireland haven't scored in any of their previous five that had nothing of substance at stake. In total, they have failed to fire in 12 of their most recent 14 friendlies.

Scotland have kept clean sheets in all of their last three meetings with Northern Ireland.

Best Bet: Back Scotland to win @ 1.784/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back Scotland to keep a clean sheet @ 2.111/10

This Week In Football History: Dean Saunders' cheeky throw-in

Dean Saunders celebrating a goal during the final year of his career.

Today, Adrian North concludes his ongoing theme of unique goals by looking back on one of English football's most bizarre moments of ingenuity - Dean Saunders' throw-in for Sheffield United against Port Vale...

March 28, 1998 - Sheffield United 2-1 Port Vale, Bramall Lane.

The past three Week in Football History entries have all been about goals of outright genius. Breathtaking strikes produced by some of the world's best players and goals of such exceptional uniqueness I've made quite the point as to just how difficult, or essentially impossible they would be to replicate down my local park.

Yet the prize for most unique goal I've ever seen doesn't go to Di Canio, Ronaldinho, or Bergkamp, but rather to one of British football's most beloved journeymen - Dean Saunders.

Saunders, who began his career at Swansea played for 12 teams over the course of 19 years, and banged in his fair share of goals up and down England as well as enjoying successful spells abroad for Galatasaray and Benfica.

And it is at Villa Park that Saunders is remembered most fondly. During the Premier League's first season he became Aston Villa's record signing and formed quite the partnership with at first Dalian Atkinson and then Dwight Yorke that saw Villa push Fergie's United all the way to the final few weeks.

Villa made quite the habit of scoring incredible goals that season too with Steve Staunton's laser versus United and Saunders' 40-yard lob against Ipswich being bettered only by Dalian Atkinson's famous solo goal against Wimbledon.

And while Saunders' long-range volley from February 1993 is the best goal the Welshman has ever scored he is almost solely remembered by the majority of neutral fans for a throw-in he took while playing for Sheffield United during the 97/98 season.

United would go on to lose in the FA Cup semi-final and Division One playoffs later that season but back in late March of 1998 Saunders ended up chasing a long ball down the left-hand touchline of Bramall Lane in a game against Port Vale.

Vale keeper Paul Musselwhite beat Saunders to the ball, slide tackling it out of play. Saunders' ingenious reaction has since gone down in football folklore, replayed at least once a year in any Sky Sports montages and featuring in every football blooper DVD to have been released at the turn of the millennium.

"No goal is unique" - A sentiment that is often true. And while Bergkamp, Ronaldinho and Di Canio all produced moments to challenge such a statement it is the image of Saunders throwing the ball against Musselwhite's back that has endured as arguably English football's most brilliant piece of improvisation.

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Berdych and Federer set to go the distance

Who will come out on top between Federer and Berdych?

The remaining two places in the semi finals of the BNP Paribas Open are up for grabs on Friday, with Roger Federer among those in action. Sean Calvert selects the best bets on day nine...

Thursday's play brought us a pretty comfortable winner when Andy Murray outclassed Feliciano Lopez in a straight sets win that brought success for my 'no tie breaks' wager.

The 1.625/8 shot was never in danger of failing, with Murray using the gusty conditions and favourable match-up with lefty Lopez to the best possible effect and the Scot could have won it even easier than his 6-3, 6-4 final score line.

That poor old warrior Bernard Tomic withdrew from his quarter final with Novak Djokovic with a combination of toothache and a back problem last night, so Djokovic will face Murray for a place in the final tomorrow.

Before all of that Roger Federer tries to join his fellow 'big four' members in the semi finals when he faces Tomas Berdych for the 19th time in all competitions, with the Swiss leading 12-6 at the moment.

That head-to-head is rather misleading though, with their last half dozen meetings being shared 3-3 and a lot could depend on the conditions at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden today.

Lopez visibly struggled in the swirling wind that often finds its way inside the stadium courts here and any repeat of yesterday's gusts will give Federer a distinct advantage.

The pair have never before met at Indian Wells, but their last three meetings have taken place on quicker hard courts in Dubai and New York, where Berdych has won two of the three.

Both have looked in good nick this week in the desert and the slower surface should make things a little easier for the more cumbersome mover, Berdych, to set himself for his big shots.

The key to beating Berdych is to move him around and make him play his shots on the move when he loses control and Federer will be looking to keep the big man running throughout this contest.

Federer is yet to be tested in the slightest so far this tournament and this should be a big step up for the Swiss from the likes of Sock, Seppi and Schwartzman and I like the 'three sets' wager in this one or a 2-1 win for Federer - both at nice prices.

I would give Fed the edge in blustery conditions, with the Berdych ball toss very high and Federer the better player in the wind anyway, but if the A game of the Czech is on it could be tough and a close match.

Federer hasn't beaten Berdych comfortably on an outdoor hard court since 2008 and this 7pm UK time start has the feel of another one that could well go to a decider, unless the wind blows Berdych away.

Recommended Bet
Back 'three sets' in Berdych/Federer at 2.77/4

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Djokovic to get the better of Federer in three

Djokovic can gain revenge over Federer for his Dubai loss today

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic clash for the 38th time in the mouthwatering final of the 2015 BNP Paribas Open on Sunday and Sean Calvert brings us his best bets at Indian Wells...

Andy Murray proved once again how difficult he is to accurately predict with a dismal performance in the semi-finals at Indian Wells on Saturday.

A feeble showing from the Scot, which included a dreadful first serve percentage and a glut of weak, unforced errors allowed Novak Djokovic to have a very comfortable day of it indeed.

Murray wasn't remotely competitive for much of that match, but Roger Federer will surely give Djokovic his toughest test of the tournament so far and the prices seem to indicate that.

Djokovic is a 1.558/15 shot to beat Federer today, which is his biggest price on a hard court against the Swiss since this time a year ago when the pair clashed in the 2014 Indian Wells final.

That one went the way of Djokovic in a final set breaker and a similarly tight contest is expected today, with the slight edge going to the Serb in these slow conditions.

Djokovic won one more point than Federer in last year's final and those looking for a decent priced punt on Sunday night's 38th career meeting between the pair should look to the 2-1 win for Novak at around 4.03/1.

I like Federer in this match-up on fast hard courts and when he does beat Djokovic in a best-of-three he beats him well, covering a 3.5 game handicap in his last 10 wins over the Serb played in the first to two format.

But for me it's not fast enough here and the gritty surface allows Djokovic to get too many balls back in play that he wouldn't be able to in conditions like Dubai, Shanghai and Cincy, where Federer has enjoyed success over Djokovic.

On the slower hard courts Djokovic has held the upper hand and generally speaking the world number one has won the ones contested between he and Federer that have gone to a deciding third set.

He has won four of the last five times that they have gone to three sets - in Indian Wells 2014, World Tour Finals 2013, Paris Masters 2013, and Indian Wells 2011 and all of these are played on slow hard courts.

Fed's only 2-1 win over Djokovic since Basel back in 2010 came on a fast court in Dubai last season and the longer the match goes on the more I would favour Djokovic, but there isn't a great deal in it.

When Fed beats Novak he tends to do it quickly and decisively and I can't see that happening on Sunday, so the 2-1 win for the Serb looks like it should give us a run for our money at a decent price.

The three sets at 2.47/5 is one for shorter priced bettors and for a really big priced shout the 6-3 to Djokovic in set one appeals at 6.05/1.

Recommended Bet
Back Djokovic to beat Federer 2-1 at 4.03/1

Football League Tips: Luton risk slipping further behind

John Still's double promotion plans have been compromised

Sheffield United and Braintree are appealingly priced for home triumphs, while Wycombe shouldn't lost at Luton...

Sheffield United v Scunthorpe
Tuesday, 19:45

Match Odds: Sheffield United 1.768/11, Scunthorpe 5.85/1, The Draw 3.8514/5

Sheffield United haven't been too impressive in League One recently, but they marked the end of a five-match winless run by defeating Port Vale at the weekend and are an attractive price at 1.768/11 to build on that with three points against Scunthorpe, whose wait for a victory stretches seven games.

The Iron have collected one away point from an available 12 in that period and have been beaten on their three trips to other top-five teams, scoring just once in the process. By contrast, even when they weren't winning, the hosts hit the net regularly, striking in each of their last 11 league outings.

Recommended Bet: Back Sheffield United to win @ 1.768/11

Luton v Wycombe
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Luton 2.942/1, Wycombe 2.89/5, The Draw 3.39/4

There is no question who enters this clash of the promotion hopefuls in better form. Luton have faded to sixth owing to a sequence of six defeats in seven, which is one more than Wycombe have suffered over their entire 37-fixture League Two campaign.

The Chairboys are also comfortably the most successful travellers in the fourth tier, losing only once in 18 away days and prevailing ten times. They are as formidable on the road now as at any stage of the season, snapping up ten of the past 12 points offered to them.

Luton haven't conquered a top-four team in six attempts, taking three points in total and being limited to two goals.

Recommended Bet: Back Wycombe to win (draw no bet) @ 1.9520/21

Braintree v Telford
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Braintree 1.758/11, Telford 5.14/1, The Draw 4.1n/a

The writing isn't so much on the wall as on every square metre of the stadium as regards Telford and relegation from the Conference. They are 16 points from safety with eight games left and appear to have surrendered the momentum from their post-Christmas mini-rally, losing six of their last seven.

Braintree will live to fight another season though, aided by a record of 11 wins in 16 against bottom-half sides which is the fourth strongest in the division, belying their station of 17th place. They sank Telford 3-1 away and are unbeaten in three league matches for the first time since September 6.

Recommended Bet: Back Braintree to win @ 1.758/11

Premier League: Sunderland look likely to claim last top-flight relegation spot

Nigel Pearson's Leicester City looked doomed to relegation

Andy Brassell casts his eye across the relegation battle and thinks Sunderland fans have every right to be worried...

It was a textbook hard luck story - chances coming and going, hitting the crossbar, and being undone by a sucker punch when in the ascendancy. Yes, QPR's defeat to Everton on Sunday was perhaps unfortunate, but it had relegation certainties written all over it, a feeling reinforced by a typically frank post-match interview by Joey Barton which had a sense of the post-mortem about it.

With eight games to go for most teams in the Premier League, the relegation scrap is beginning to crystalise at two different points, and the advent of the international break is probably an appropriate point to analyse it. The bottom two of Leicester (1.222/9 to go down) and QPR (even shorter at 1.132/15) look pretty much doomed.

Even if the latter are only three points behind third-bottom Burnley they face a tough run in, with Chelsea and trips to Liverpool and Manchester City on the horizon. The home form of Chris Ramsey's team has also deserted them at the worst possible moment - they have lost the last five straight at Loftus Road in the Premier League.

The other cut-off point is between 14th and 15th, to almost quote The Charlatans, where five points separate West Bromwich Albion and - below them - Hull City. So if we assume for the sake of argument that Leicester and QPR have had their chips, we are left with with four possible candidates to fill the remaining spot in the relegation zone.

The aforementioned Burnley are the current occupants, and the favourites to go, at 1.9110/11. There is reason behind this in the sense that they are simply the division's smallest club, and punters feel that they can't continue to defy the odds as they have quite spectacularly on occasion this season, notably in taking points from Chelsea and Manchester City in recent weeks.

Their programme after the resumption is tough, with the north London pair of Tottenham and Arsenal on the menu, though both have to come to Turf Moor. It is not inconceivable that the Clarets could eke a few points out of that pair of fixtures, but perhaps more crucial to their prospects of a top-flight stay is that they still have to play Leicester (at home), Hull and Aston Villa (away). Sean Dyche and his team have considerable fortitude and their own fate in their hands still.

Above them Sunderland, priced at 2.6413/8, have a right to be worried. They have just a point more than Burnley and their late loss at West Ham on Saturday takes us back to our previous theme of hard luck tales - Nen clearly fouled Seb Larsson in the lead-up to Diafra Sakho's winner, but play continued and Dick Advocaat was sunk in his opening game.

While much criticism of the Dutchman's truncated reign as Serbia boss overlooks the chaos in which he was expected to work, he remains a left-field choice for the role, and he faces a battle to lift confidence off the floor. Their next match, the derby with Newcastle, takes on epic proportions with a horrible run-in coming up and ending with trips to Arsenal and Chelsea in their last two games.

Saying that a team should 'just about be alright' is akin to the kiss of death, but Hull (4.3100/30 to drop) and Aston Villa (6.05/1) really should be, even if they have less than a point per game each. The Tigers were excellent against Chelsea and Dame N'Doye and Abel Hernndez look capable of filling the gap left by the injured Nikica Jelavic.

The late nature of Villa's defeat at Swansea reminded us that they're not safe yet and their first match after the international break is a tough one too, as they visit Manchester United - though Tim Sherwood and company will perhaps have an eye on the home game with QPR, a team that has lost all but one of their 14 away games this season, four days later as a ready source of points.

There is plenty of fun still to be had with the permutations - if you're a neutral, at least - but Sunderland look especially vulnerable, to these eyes at least. So savour that Tyne-Wear derby on Saturday 4th as it could be the last for a while.

BNP Paribas Open Betting: Murray to get the better of Lopez again

Murray should ease past Lopez again on Thursday

The quarter finals of the 2015 BNP Paribas Open begin at Indian Wells on Thursday and Sean Calvert previews Andy Murray's last eight clash with Feli Lopez...

We had a spot of bad luck on Wednesday when Adrian Mannarino failed to get the job done in either of my two wagers concerning his match with Andy Murray.

The Frenchman was looking decent at a break up at *3-2 in set one with my 13.012/1 punt on Murray to win it 7-5 a distinct possibility at that stage before Mannarino lost four straight games and the set.

Then he failed to cover the +5.5 game handicap by a couple of points after one woeful drop shot in what turned out to be the final game of the match.

That was before a puzzling performance from Gilles Simon, who looked very much out of sorts against an improved, but far from peak, Rafael Nadal.

Elsewhere, there was disappointment for John Isner outright backers, as the American, who was certainly not helped by the night time scheduling of the match, was beaten by Novak Djokovic.

The peculiar scheduling of this tournament means that only two of the four men's quarter finals are on the card for today, while all eight of the fourth rounds were on yesterday.

Murray plays in the heat of the day again on Thursday, with a 1pm local time (8pm UK) start against old foe Feli Lopez, who took down Kei Nishikori yesterday.

Nishikori's loss was no real surprise considering how poorly he's played here both this week and in previous years, but Lopez has made the quarters for the first ever time with that win.

Even the likes of Roger Federer are commenting on how hard it is to play at this venue and if the GOAT is struggling what chance have we the poor old punters?

Murray is a 1.162/13 shot to record his 11th win over Lopez in all competitions, with their exhibition meeting in Abu Dhabi this January their most recent clash. Prior to that it was Miami last season when they last clashed in a tournament proper.

Much of this one will hinge upon how well the Spanish lefty serves and as I mentioned yesterday Murray rarely loses to lefties (Rafa apart) - regardless of how well they serve.

This is largely due to the lefty cross court forehand going into Murray's rock solid backhand wing and on this slow surface I find it hard to see how Lopez can score in the neutral rallies.

Lopez said after the Nishikori win that he was "hitting great for the first time at Indian Wells," which shows how hard it is to play here, as he's been playing this tournament since 2003.

His backhand slice is fairly effective here, but against a clever opponent like Murray it hasn't been enough and the Scot always works out a way to win whatever the conditions against Lopez.

The 2-0 to Murray is a viable wager here at around 1.558/15 with Lopez having won only one set from the Scot in their nine previous main level matches and I don't see a tie break here either.

In the 201 completed sets here this week we've had only 32 tie breaks - or one every 6.28 sets of tennis - and as only six of this pair's 24 contested sets have gone to breakers the 1.625/8 about no tie breaks tonight looks decent.

Only one match of Murray's in the 11 he's played since Melbourne this season has featured a tie break and not surprisingly that was against Isner indoors in Davis Cup.

Murray has too much in his locker to be beaten by Lopez unless he has a nightmare day (which is possible of course) and Murray breaks the Spaniard between two and five times each time they play.

Either the 2-0 to Murray or the no tie breaks look the best options here.

Recommended Bet
Back no tie breaks at 1.625/8

Against All Odds: Goals to flow in Capital Federal

Can San Lorenzo take the league title in Argentina?

The week begins in Argentina for Paul Robinson as he feels that there is value in opposing under 2.5 goals in the match between Nueva Chicago and San Lorenzo.

Nueva Chicago v San Lorenzo
Monday 23 March, 19:00 GMT

It's been a poor start to the season for Nueva Chicago as despite now playing in a higher division, they will be disappointed not to have won a game yet after five fixtures.

Conceding too many goals has been the main issue for Rene Kloker's side as they are still to pick up a clean sheet, and have only managed to keep the opposition's score down to one on just one occasion.

They have scored themselves in every match bar the visit of Godoy Cruz to this stadium, and that has led to three of their five fixtures rewarding those who opposed under 2.5 goals.

It's been a mixed season for San Lorenzo thus far as while they are making a poor job of defending their Copa Libertadores crown, their domestic campaign has yielded four wins from five attempts.

As far as the goals go, Edgardo Bauza's men have scored 10 so far this term and conceded four. Their matches are averaging 2.8 goals each time, with three of the five having had three or more.

We could do with a winner after a disappointing few days and I think this selection is excellent value to give us just that. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.548/15 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Nueva Chicago v San Lorenzo @ 1.548/15

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 80 pts
Returned: 64.12 pts
P/L: - 15.88 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Champions League quarter-final preview

Messi and Pique will be confident of progress

The draw for the Champions League quarter-finals has been made, and there are some fascinating clashes on the cards.

Paris St-Germain v Barcelona

Paris Saint-Germain's reward for overcoming Chelsea in the round of 16 is a quarter-final date with the giants of Barcelona. These two teams are no stranger to each other in the recent Champions League history. They were paired together in Group F in this season's Group Stages, with PSG winning 3-2 at the Parc des Princes before Barcelona got their revenge with a 3-1 victory at the Camp Nou. The sides also met at the quarter-final stage two seasons ago and it was Barcelona who progressed on away goals after a 3-3 draw over the two legs.

Barcelona ended up topping Group F and they overcame Premier League champions Manchester City in the round of 16. The Catalans won 2-1 at the Etihad in the first leg and won 1-0 at the Camp Nou thanks to a first-half strike from Ivan Rakitic. In truth, Barcelona could have got many more goals as they were vastly superior to their English opponents. Their progress means they are in the Champions League quarter-finals for a record eighth successive season.

PSG performed heroically to also overcome English opposition in the shape of Jose Mourinho's Chelsea. The first leg in Paris finished 1-1 and the writing looked to be on the wall for Laurent Blanc's men in London once Zlatan Ibrahimovic was controversially sent off after just 30 minutes of the second leg. However, PSG showed a dogged resistance as they twice came back from behind to snatch a 2-2 draw and progress on away goals, despite playing with 10 men for 90 minutes.

The French side have historically done well against Spanish opposition, and the loss to Barca in the group stage was their one defeat in their last seven games against sides from Spain. Meanwhile, Barcelona have not won in their last four trips to France, drawing three and losing in Paris earlier in the competition. You have to go back to 2001 for the last time Barcelona won a match in France.

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid

There is a repeat of last year's final in the quarter-finals as city rivals Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will go face-to-face. In the final back in May it was Real who came out on top 4-1, however Atletico were moments away from winning the Champions League. A last-gasp equaliser from Sergio Ramos cancelled out a first-half strike from Diego Godin and shattered the dreams of Atletico fans, before extra time goals from Gareth Bale, Marcelo and Cristiano Ronaldo gave Real a tenth European title.

Real only just made it through the round of 16 and were almost on the end of a major Champions League surprise. After beating the Bundesliga side Schalke 2-0 in Germany, they were forced to hang on at the Bernabeu as they conceded four away goals as Schalke won the match 4-3. Just one more goal was needed for the visitors to cause an almighty shock, but Real hung on. The fans have turned on coach Carlo Ancelotti and the Italian is under real pressure. While it was a bad night for Real in the second leg, it was a good night for Cristiano Ronaldo as he scored two goals to become the Champions League's all-time record scorer.

Atletico were the surprise packages last season, winning La Liga and getting so close to lifting the Champions League. They haven't quite met the standards of 12 months ago after losing some of their top stars, but are still challenging both domestically and in Europe. They were thankful to substitute goalkeeper Jan Oblak as they overcame Bayer Leverkusen in a penalty shoot-out in the last 16. The Germans won the first leg 1-0 and Atletico won the return by a similar score-line thanks to a Mario Suarez strike.

Atletico should go into the game full of confidence as they have had the better of their city rivals in four of the six games the two have faced off in already this season, with the other two matches being drawn. The history books show that Real have won both the European Cup clashes between the two teams, in last year's final and way back in the semi-finals in 1958/59. It promises to be an even battle between two bitter rivals in what will be their seventh and eighth meetings of this season.

Porto v Bayern Munich

Porto are unbeaten in 10 games in this year's Champions League, but received a tough draw against Bayern Munich. It is a repeat of the 1987 final, which Porto won, but Munich have beaten the Portuguese side over two legs in their other two meetings in the competition - at the quarter-final stage of the 1990/91 and 1999/200 competitions.

Bayern have been formidable at home in the Champions League this season, winning all four of their games and scoring 13 goals without conceding one. More than half of those goals came in the one game, as they trounced Shakhtar 7-0 in Munich in the second leg of their last 16 clash. After a goalless first leg, the game was all but over when Olexandr Kucher was shown the quickest red card in the competition's history after three minutes and Thomas Muller scored from the resulting penalty. Bayern have set a new Champions League record, having reached the quarter-finals on 14 occasions.

Porto are in the quarter-finals for the first time in six years and are so far unbeaten in the competition this season. They made it through the last round with a 5-1 aggregate victory over the Swiss side Basel. The Portuguese side will be outsiders in this quarter-final, but you have to go all the way back to 1991 for their last loss to German opposition on home soil, which was coincidentally to Bayern.

Juventus v Monaco

The final quarter-final sees Juventus taking on Monaco. It is a first appearance at the last-eight stage since 2012/13 for a Juventus side who are flying domestically and sit a full 14 points clear at the top of Serie A. They are the only Italian side left in the competition and the Old Lady overcame Borussia Dortmund 5-1 on aggregate in the last 16, with two Carlos Tevez goals and one from Alvaro Morata in a 3-0 victory in Germany in the second leg.

Monaco caused a shock as they beat Arsenal on away goals, with a 3-1 victory at the Emirates essentially putting the tie to bed in the first leg. They survived a bit of a scare on home turf but deserved a first appearance in the quarter-finals for a decade.

These two teams met in the semi-finals back in 1997/98, where Juventus came out 6-4 winners on aggregate, but the history books show that Monaco have never lost to an Italian team in Monte Carlo. Indeed, their only reverse, a 3-1 loss to Inter Milan in 1963/64, actually came in Marseille. Juventus are likely to be the favourites for this quarter-final but the club's director, Pavel Neved, was accurate after the draw when he cited Monaco's beating of Arsenal as a sign they should not be taken for granted.

Transfer Talk: Falcao for Chelsea or Liverpool, really...?

Could Falcao swap United red for Liverpool red this summer?

The nations most popular newspaper is saying Radamel Falcao is attracting interest from both Chelsea and Liverpool. I'm sceptical to say the least.

Reports in the German press suggest that Manchester United are set to move for Borussia Dortmund defender Mats Hummels.

The Red Devils have long been linked with the Germany international, with Louis van Gaal a known admirer of the player.

But the Old Trafford outfit have been constantly knocked back by BVB with Hummels staying loyal to the club.

However rumours persist that the 26-year-old is keen to test himself in the Premier League and is open to a summer switch to the north west of England.

Dortmund will not be in next season's Champions League after a disastrous season that has seen them flirting with relegation and, with United now looking odds-on for a top-four finish, they might be able to tempt him to sign.

A fee of around 36m euros has been suggested and that might be the only stumbling block to the move but United do need an experienced stopper to shore up the defence.

Elsewhere Tottenham are said to be considering a double raid on Spanish giants Valencia in the summer for Shkodran Mustafi and Sofiane Feghouli.

Mustafi is a utility defender who won the World Cup with Germany last summer and is reportedly valued at 9m, while Algeria international Feghouli plays on the wing and could be purchased for around 7m.

It has been claimed that Spurs sent scouts to watch the duo as Los Che beat Elche 4-0 last weekend.

Champions League-chasing Valencia are reluctant to let the players leave but will need funds of their own to strengthen should they qualify for Europe's elite club competition.

The Sun are suggesting that Liverpool and Chelsea are both keen on Manchester United's loan flop Radamel Falcao and may make a move in the summer.

The Colombia international hit-man has made little impact at Old Trafford since making his loan move from Monaco last summer and it seems highly unlikely that the Premier League giants will purchase him outright.

But Jose Mourinho and Brendan Rodgers have clearly seen something they like and are willing to take a punt on the former Atletico Madrid forward.

Liverpool look like moving controversial flop Mario Balotelli on this summer and that would free up a spot for Falcao.

According to German publication Bild, Borussia Dortmund have now joined Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City in keeping close tabs on Liverpool's Raheem Sterling.

The Reds winger has yet to agree a new deal at Anfield and, according to former Liverpool definer Jamie Carragher, is risking the wrath of the fans by delaying.

But it may well be that he has his eyes elsewhere with the clubs that are reportedly interested.

A failure for Liverpool to reach the Champions League might be the deciding factor, with European football guaranteed at the other clubs said to be keen.

However, despite the delay over a new deal, Rodgers has always maintained that he is confident the situation will be resolved favourably and Sterling will remain on Merseyside.

Against All Odds: Christmas to come early for Santa Fe layers

Santa Fe have been struggling of late

There's plenty of value to be had in Colombia tonight as Paul Robinson believes that Santa Fe have to be opposed at odds-on for the visit of Medellin.

Santa Fe v Medellin
Wednesday March 25, 00:45 GMT

After winning the Colombian championship last season, Santa Fe haven't quite hit the same heights this time around. With Copa Libertadores football providing a distraction, one of the most historic clubs in Colombia's history are only in eighth place after winning just four of 10 fixtures.

Gustavo Costas will be hoping that his side can now kick on as there is a bit of a break before their next Libertadores fixture, and while they did win 4-1 at the weekend, that was against a team who are second from bottom.

Tonight's opponents, Medellin, are a much tougher challenge and they only narrowly lost to Santa Fe in the Championship final last season. Nicknamed 'The Powerful', the Hernn Torres Oliveros managed club are already flexing their muscles this term as they have picked up 20 points from their 10 outings, and if they avoid defeat tonight, they will go top.

It's four wins in six league fixtures for Medellin and three wins out of four on the road. Their sole loss away from home did come nine days ago, but that came at Atletico Nacional and that can easily be forgiven.

It's hard to have faith in the hosts given their current form and Medellin are one of the best teams in the country. That's why, with Santa Fe trading at around the 1.845/6 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Santa Fe v Medellin @ 1.845/6

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 81 pts
Returned: 64.12 pts
P/L: - 16.88 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

International Tips: No stopping Denmark and Germany

Joachim Low has halted Germany's post-World Cup malaise

Michael Lintorn picks out his best bets for Georgia v Malta, Denmark v USA and Germany v Australia...

Georgia v Malta
Wednesday, 17:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Georgia 1.42/5, Malta 11.5n/a, The Draw 4.84/1

Michel Platini may have widened the entranceway to Euro 2016 so that up to three teams from any qualifying group can now gain admission, but it has only taken four games for Georgia and Malta to write themselves out of contention by collecting three points and one respectively.

Malta's calling card is under 2.5 goals. Their four qualifiers served up just eight goals, with three delivering on the aforementioned bet, while all of their 2014 friendlies went low as well.

Georgia don't overindulge either, as evidenced by putting a mere three past Gibraltar in October after the newcomers had been destroyed 7-0 by Poland and Republic of Ireland.

Recommended Bet
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.784/5

Denmark v USA
Wednesday, 19:15
Live on Betfair Live Video

Match Odds: Denmark 2.166/5, USA 3.9n/a, The Draw 3.55/2

Your initial instinct might be to question why a nation that didn't even qualify for the World Cup are favourites to defeat one of the most celebrated round-of-16 evacuees. However, the statistics tell a different story, one whereby being able to back Denmark at odds as big as 2.166/5 is in fact a privilege.

Morten Olsen's men - that's right, the 65-year-old is approaching a phenomenal 15 years in charge - have won four in six as hosts.

USA have only triumphed once since the World Cup and not at all in their latest four fixtures, the latest two of which were losses to Colombia and Republic of Ireland in Europe. Denmark prevailed in the pair's previous clash 3-1, which was held in the same Aarhus-based stadium in 2009.

Recommended Bet
Back Denmark to win @ 2.166/5

Germany v Australia
Wednesday, 19:30
Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Germany 1.21/5, Australia 18.5n/a, The Draw 8.88/1

Germany have suffered a heavy World Cup hangover, losing to Argentina and Poland, being held at home by Republic of Ireland, scraping past Scotland and scoring three fewer than two Euro 2016 qualifying foes against Gibraltar, but a friendly win in Spain last time out will have shaken it off.

Australia will fear a similarly unhelpful reaction to securing their first silverware since ditching their home confederation for Asia's AFC in 2006, lifting the AFC Asian Cup as hosts in January.

Those concerns will be heightened by the knowledge that they were beaten without reply in their last three friendlies against European sides, with none of those opponents as accomplished as the world champions: France (6-0), Croatia (1-0) and Belgium (2-0).

A third clean sheet in a row should therefore be Germany's target, and it would have been four were it not for the last-gasp concession to Republic of Ireland's John O'Shea in October.

Recommended Bet
Back Germany to win to nil @ 1.9110/11

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Tight match expected at Hampden

There will certainly be more pints sunk than goals scored

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections...

Bet 1: Georgia (HOME) @ 1.36 (4/11)

This is an international friendly that should result in a relatively straightforward home victory. It's not often that Georgia would be this short a price but they face a country even worse than them.

The hosts were beaten 4-0 last time out by Poland but before that they brushed aside Gibraltar with ease. They have also won against Saudi Arabia and Liechenstein in the last 12 months and it wasn't too long ago that they held France to a draw.

Malta are a small country who have lost 11 of their last 13 fixtures. They failed to score in eight of those defeats and the last time they came to Georgia, they were beaten to nil.

Bet 2: Botafogo (AWAY) @ 1.28 (2/7)

The Brazilian State Championships are well underway and Botafogo are in the midst of a recovery following their miserable campaign last season that saw them relegated from the Campeonato.

This is a Carioca 1 fixture and Botafogo top the table having picked up 28 points from a possible 33. They've won eight of their last nine matches with the only blemish coming at Fluminense - a result that can easily be forgiven.

Their opponents are Rio de Janeiro based minnows who are third from bottom after their 11 fixtures. They have won just once and been beaten in over half of their matches. Home advantage could help level the playing field slightly, but I wouldn't hold out much hope of Barra Mansa avoiding defeat.

Bet 3: Germany v Australia (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.47 (40/85) - Live on ESPN at 19:30 GMT

World Cup Winners, Germany, haven't been firing on all cylinders since their wonderful summer of 2014 but they did beat Spain last time out and the players have had a much needed rest from internationals.

I expect Joachim Lw's men to come back well refreshed, especially as the manager has stated that youth will be given a chance. Both new and old players will be keen to impress and I can see the Germans racking up a few goals in Kaiserslautern.

Opponents, Australia, are a scrappy team that quite often punch above their own weight. This was highlighted in the World Cup as despite losing all three matches, they performed better than the results suggest. All three of their group games went over 2.5 goals and I wouldn't rule them out from scoring this evening.

Bet 4: Scotland v Northern Ireland (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.53 (8/15) - Live on Sky Sports 1 at 19:45 GMT

This home nations friendly should be a fantastic occasion but I can't see there being many goals.

Scotland have performed much better of late under the guidance of Gordon Strachan. A total of eight of their last 10 fixtures at home have finished with two goals or fewer being scored and I expect more tasty challenges than creative flair.

A similar description could be written about Northern Ireland as they have won three of their last four fixtures, with three of them rewarding under 2.5 goal backers. In fact, nine of their last 10 matches would have seen under 2.5 backers collect and they don't often score many on the road.

Recommended Multiple

Back Georgia @ 1.36 (4/11)
Back Botafogo @ 1.28 (2/7)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Germany v Australia @ 1.47 (40/85)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Scotland v Northern Ireland @ 1.53 (8/15);

The Multiple pays approximately 3.91 (3/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 11 pts
Returned: 22.38 pts
P/L: + 11.38 pts
(2014 P/L: + 48.57pts)
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)