Introducing Hearthstone betting

Introducing Hearthstone betting

By Jack Ratcliffe Oct 30, 2013

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Blizzard is well known in the eSports community for creating exciting player vs. player games, specifically Starcraft 2 and World of Warcraft. The publishers are aiming to continue the trend with Heathstone, a new online CCG game. Despite still being in beta, the Warcraft-inspired CCG is already having its first official tournament – and Pinnacle Sports has the odds.

Heathstone’s beta launched in mid-August, which means that the players have had just 10 weeks to get to grips with their virtual decks before being thrust into the spotlight. Like fellow CCG game Magic: the Gathering, there are undoubtedly thousands of nuanced strategies waiting to be discovered, which means anything could happen come November 11th. So how will the competition work, and what factors could help in Hearthstone Innkeeper’s Invitational betting?

About the Innkeeper’s Invitational

Blizzard has invited eight high-profile players to compete live at their BlizzCon event. Each match is a best of five, with the winners progressing through to the next round. After the cards have settled, just one man will remain standing, proud champion of the first official Hearthstone competition.

Player 1

Odds

v

Player 2

Odds

Day9

3.660*

Reckful

1.292*

Hafu

2.430*

Kripparrian

1.571*

Trump

1.182*

Husky

4.990*

Noxious

1.752*

Artosis

2.100*

The competitors, however, are not the best players on the circuit. It’s no secret that the Innkeeper invited high-profile players based on their ability to help publicise the currently un-released game, rather than their skill.

In fact, according to Blizzard, only Trump ranks in the US Top 50 – at position number 48. Monitoring these tables will be useful for following the players’ forms going into the competition. (Click here to see the top 50 players)

The lack of dominance by the competitors means that there could be a lot of variability in their performances nearing the day of the competition. Unlike other eSports games, none of these men base their livelihood on how well they perform at the competition, so the impetus could be lacking. However, exposure and fame await the winner – so maybe there’s a greater incentive for the less popular competitors.

How to gain an edge in Hearthstone betting

One way to monitor this incentive is to follow the competitor’s Twitter feeds and live streams. Chances are, if one player is talking more about Heathstone than anyone else, he’s more likely to be putting in the effort to prepare for the competition – and therefore should be more prepared.

Another aspect to examine is their previous CCG experience. Trump, for example, used to play MtG to a high level, and was also quite competitive at Starcraft. Earlier this year he became the first Hearthstone player to be sponsored.

As the competition will be played at BlizzCon, all equipment will be standardised, although competing in a physical location means that jet lag and other travel-related issues could also provide an impact. Who has the furthest to travel? Who will be least accustomed to the event’s atmosphere? These factors could all play a part.

Moving towards the later stages be wary of disproportionately close-run games in the first round. The format of the Innkeeper’s Invitational means that rounds could have a propensity to end 3-2. This is because when a player’s deck is defeated, they have to choose another deck to play, while the winning player is forced to continue with their existing deck. This gives the defeated player an advantage, as he knows the player’s cards and technique with that deck, and will be able to tailor his response accordingly.

Click here for the latest Hearthstone Innkeeper’s Invitational odds.

*Odds subject to change

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Similarities between Bandy & Soccer provide opportunities for Bettors

Similarities between Bandy & Soccer provide opportunities for Bettors

By Michael Gales Oct 30, 2013

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You asked, Pinnacle Sports listened. After a number of requests Pinnacle are now re-offering odds on the Swedish Elitserien bandy league. This article looks at how you can bet on Bandy, the Swedish Elitserien and discusses the similarities between soccer and Bandy.

Bandy: a love child of soccer?

Bandy is often described as a cross between soccer and hockey. Popular amongst Scandinavian countries, the sports roots are surprisingly firmly set within England’s history – Queen Victoria’s husband Prince Albert couldn’t resist playing goalkeeper in a famous exhibition match in 1853 at Windsor Castle.

At first glance bandy may be mistaken for ice hockey – it’s played on ice with sticks, but that is where the similarities end.  The game is more comparable with soccer; Played on a rink the size of a soccer pitch with 11 players per team, two 45-minute halves, the same offside rule and unlike hockey there is no puck, bandy players use a small plastic orange ball.

Like soccer, players pass, dribble and shoot, with play only stopping when the ball goes out for a goal throw, corner stroke, penalty stroke, stroke in or by the referee. Discipline is maintained by the red and blue card system – Red means you can no longer play for the remainder of the game, while Blue is a 10-minute penalty (three Blues in the same game result in a red).

With such noticeable similarities between the two sports, it gives the players with knowledge of either soccer or bandy to transfer their betting Despite various countries hosting Bandy Leagues, the Swedish Elitserien is probably the most established league in the world. Since it’s inauguration for the 2007-2008 season the Elitserien has been seen as the pinnacle of domestic bandy.

The Elitserien consists of 14 teams and begins with the regular season in late October whereby each team play 26 games. The first eight teams then qualify for the quarter-finals, and there is a knockout format until the two remaining teams compete in the season finale at the Friends arena.

The two teams finishing at the bottom play a relegation round robin tournament against the top two teams from the Allsvenskan – the second division -, with the top two teams playing in the Elitserien the following season.

How to bet on Bandy at Pinnacle Sports

There are a number of ways to bet on bandy with Pinnacle Sports. Bettors have the opportunity to mix up their bets with a variety of different betting formats such as:

12 Bandy Betting:

12 markets are the most popular market and the simplest way for a player to understand the cost of a bet. 12 bandy bettors are ultimately betting on who will win the match.

Bandy Handicap Betting:

When the perceived bias in ability between two teams is different, bookmakers offer a goal handicap to level the playing field. These goals are then added to the game’s final score, and the winner is the team that wins with these additions.

Bandy Totals Betting:

Bandy total frames betting allows the punter to bet whether the total number of goals by both teams will be over or under the value set by Pinnacle Sports.

Click here for the latest Elitserien bandy odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Are Arsenal underrated in the Premier League?

Are Arsenal underrated in the Premier League?

By Michael Gales Oct 29, 2013

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Arsenal and Liverpool go head-to-head on the weekend, but while they might be neck-and-neck in the Premier League, Arsenal are doing much better on the handicap tables. Could this form continue on Saturday – or will Liverpool outperform expectations?

Arsenal top of the Handicap table 

Arsenal continued their good form in the Premier League with a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on the weekend to remain two-points ahead of Chelsea and Liverpool at the top of the EPL.

Arsenal are the best performing team against the spread this season

The Gunners’ (W7 D1 L1) current eight game unbeaten run means the 1×2 markets might not provide much value, so does the handicap offer the bettor a healthier return?

Arsenal are the best performing team against the spread this season and sit top of the Pinnacle Sports’ Handicap Table having covered 78% of the time. At home, they have covered all their games aside from their opener against Aston Villa. Topping the handicap table means that Arsenal have been undervalued over the past few games, as they have been performing above bookmaker expectations.

Therefore the question for the Liverpool games is – are Arsenal being badly undervalued, or are the bookmakers expecting them to regress back to their perceived level in the near future? Realising this early enough, offers the bettor an opportunity to make a profit.

Goals should also be expected at the Emirates, as Arsenal find the net on average 2.25 times per game, scoring in all nine of their Premier League games so far (an average of +1 goal superiority). The north London side also concede 1.25 goals/game.

Liverpool cover 50% on the road

Brendan Rodgers’ team can leapfrog Arsenal with a win at the Emirates on Saturday. Liverpool are in fine form and unbeaten in their last four Premier League games.

The Reds have made a flying start to their campaign and in Daniel Sturridge (8) and Luis Suarez (6) have the most potent strikeforce in the Premier League with 14 goals between them. But how well does Liverpool’s free scoring form equate against the handicap?

Despite sitting joint-second in the EPL, winning 66% of their games and holding a plus eight-goal difference, they have only covered 44.4% of the time this season.

Importantly for this fixture, Liverpool are unbeaten and have covered 50% of their games away from Anfield. A closer look at their fixtures played, however, highlights that apart from Man United and Southampton, they have played no one inside the top eight of the EPL.

Does this suggest they are appearing better than they are, therefore presenting an opportunity for savvy bettors to foresee a downturn in their fortunes?

How they both perform against the ‘Big’ teams 

It’s useful for bettors to gauge a team’s strength. To do this, a team’s performance must be analysed against a team with similar relative strength.

We have gathered handicap betting data for the last five seasons to see how well Arsenal and Liverpool have performed against the spread when playing Man United, Man City, Tottenham and Chelsea home and away respectively.

At the Emirates, Arsenal have won 40% of games but failed to cover the spread 61.5% of the time, showing that the Gunners have been overvalued in recent years at home against the better teams.

In comparison, Liverpool have won just 24% of games against the ‘big’ teams but have covered the spread in almost half (48%). What this suggests is that Liverpool may not win on the road against the big teams, but are more likely to cover the handicap.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool: Head-to-Head

In the previous ten encounters at Arsenal, the Gunners have won four, Liverpool once and there have been five draws.

Despite only winning one game at Arsenal in ten attempts, Liverpool have covered the handicap 60% of the time – including the last three Premier League games at the Emirates.

The odds on the handicap reflect both teams good form, with Arsenal set as the slight 0 &-0.5 2.000* favourites, compared to Liverpool who are offered at 0 & 0.5 1.943* underdogs.

There has been an average of 2.8 goals per game, with both teams failing to score just once each – in 2011 when Arsenal lost 0-2 and in 2010 when the Gunners ran out 1-0 winners.

Will Arsenal continue their handicap table-topping form? Or can Liverpool show their ability to outperform expectations when on the road against the big teams?

Click here to see the latest Arsenal vs Liverpool odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Why Carlsen is favourite to dethrone five time champion, Anand

Why Carlsen is favourite to dethrone five time champion, Anand

By Mirio Mella Oct 29, 2013

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The 2013 World Chess Championship starting on November 9th in Chennai sees the accepted norms of the sports biggest grudge match turned on their head. The youthful Norwegian challenger Magnus Carlsen is the heavy favourite, with five-time champion Viswanathan Anand, the unfancied outsider. Find out why this is.

The odds for the World Chess Championship at Pinnacle Sports have 22-year-old Carlsen as the 1.282* favourite to end the eight-year reign of Anand, who is a 3.740* underdog in his own back yard.

What this means for those unfamiliar with betting is that the market thinks Carlsen has approximately a 75% chance of winning, so if the tournament were played 100 times Carlsen would win 75, while the odds give Anand – 21 years Carlsen’s senior – just a 25% chance of retaining his title.

In betting terms Carlsen is a very strong favourite, should you bet 100 on the Norwegian winning the best of 12 series you would make just 28 profit, while the equivalent bet on Anand would return 274 profit. So what makes Carlsen such a sure thing?

Forget Home Advantage

One of the universally accepted factors in sports betting is the important influence of home field advantage. HFA derives largely from the positive benefits of home support and the influence this can bring to refereeing decisions. In Chess however, these factors are redundant.

Concentration is so critical that Carlsen and Anand will face off in a completely soundproof arena at the Hyatt Regency in Chennai (India) cut off from the audience and journalists by a glass partition.

The referee is so rarely called into play that again this cannot be considered as having any influence on the match. In fact the FIDE Supervisor is specifically tasked with making conditions equal for both players, and since the venue isn’t “neutral”, Carlsen is allowed to appoint a preferred FIDE Supervisor, and (along with Anand) has seen and approved the venue in advance.

HFA does also derive from the comfort of playing in familiar surroundings, so Anand will benefit in some small measure from this. Even for a sport where focus and preparation are supremely important Carlsen is a stickler for routine. He sleeps as close to start time as possible “because my mind works best four or five hours after I wake up”. To get his mind right he will need to spend several days acclimatizing, but despite his youth Carlsen has already collected many air miles (he took a year out from school and travelled the world with his parents playing chess) so the adjustment shouldn’t be a significant issue.

His youth does also bring a potential advantage given the physical and mental demands of World Championship format. Chess players tend to peak in their late thirties, so at 41 Anand could be considered past his best.

Other than facing each other across the board the two will be kept very much apart from each other and the outside world, occupying separate floors at the Hyatt, and even use separate lifts to the playing area. Bettors may however, derive useful insights into their state of mind during the mandatory post-match press conferences. Pinnacle Sports will be offering odds for each game alongside the outright winner market.

In other sports World Championships dirty tricks have been rumoured – late night prank calls, or food poisoning – but FIDE go to the nth degree to ensure fair play with an elaborate security system from the moment players arrive.

So as long as Carlsen can settle into his familiar routine the home advantage doesn’t seem like helping Anand, and the odds underline this. There may be some pressure simply from being such a strong favourite, but equally Anand, a legend in India, may feel the pressure of expectation from a nation counting on defeating the challenger, 19 years his junior.

Form, Rankings & the Genius Factor

Form and situational factors aside, one of the reasons Carlsen is such an overwhelming favourite may come down to the genius factor. Even among Super Grand Masters – with FIDE ratings over 2800 – Carlsen is regarded as something special. Carlsen rates top of the table of all-time best ever FIDE ratings (2,872 in march 2013) on that basis making him the greatest every Chess player – and is rumoured to be mentored by the man who sits second on that all time list, Garry Kasparov. Singling him out even more, he is unique among top players of not having a favoured opening, which certainly makes his opponent’s preparation even harder.

Anand sits fourth of that elite roll-call but that is based on his best ever rating of 2,817 achieved over 2 years ago in March 2011. His current rating sits at 2,775 – ranking him 8th, with Carlsen no.1 on 2,870 reflecting the fact that Anand hasn’t been at his best of late.

On head-to-head stats Anand actually leads 6-3 in Classical Games with 20 draws, but in the most recent 14 duals, Carlsen has drawn 11 and won 3, the most recent being at the Tal Memorial in June.

Carlsen is capable of losing, as Indian National Chess Champion and Grand Master Abhijeet Gupta points out, “Carlsen lost the last two games (at the London Chess Candidates) under pressure.” But he did prevail at that World Championship eliminator earning him the right to face Vishy and arrives at Chennai in form following his success in the Sinquefield Cup.

Experience in Anand’s favour

Though Carlsen seems to have so much in his favour there is one area where Anand holds a significant advantage – experience

Though Carlsen seems to have so much in his favour there is one area where Anand holds a significant advantage – experience. Vishy turned Grandmaster 2 years before Carlsen was even born, and has been World Champion for 8 years, undisputed for the last six. His experience of successful World Championships in Mexico, Germany, Bulgaria and Russia could prove invaluable.

His experience at the 2010 event in particular shows what a resilient character he is. The Icelandic volcanic eruption saw his flight from Frankfurt to the venue in Sofia grounded, and with his pleas for a three-day delay turned down, he was forced to endure a 40 hour round trip. Against the background of that brutal trip Anand won the deciding game 12 on Black.

Vishy is clearly capable of handling pressure as again in 2012 his defence went to the wire; with the game tied at 6-6 he won a rapid tiebreaker. In this regard the jury is out on Carlsen. He comes across as a calm and level headed young man, but Chess is littered with casualties from the mental torment the game can inflict, termed ‘the crazy’. Comparisons with Bobby Fischer – considered the most gifted chess player to have lifted the crown, but whom spent almost 20 years as a recluse – have emerged against which Carlsen has made clear distinction.

“It was probably only the chess keeping him sane. He would have gone insane much quicker without it. His story is very different to mine. He had a difficult upbringing. Difficult relationship to his family. I have lived a much more sheltered, normal life.”

If you can take Carlsen at his word, and assume he has the mental toughness to match the undoubted skill that his current FIDE rating clearly denotes, then the odds at Pinnacle Sports for the 2013 World Championship may seem fair value, but as in life, and all other betting, nothing is ever certain in chess.

Click here to see the latest 2013 World Chess Championship odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Barca vs. Madrid – who is performing better than expected this season

Barca vs. Madrid – who is performing better than expected this season

By Michael Gales Oct 25, 2013

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It’s the first El Clasico of the season on Saturday – but who will come out on top? With two new managers, the Catalan’s are home favourites, but are both sides overrated this season, and how does this affect the handicap?

Problems with setting the handicap for El Clasico

The main issue with setting a handicap for El Clasico is due to the difficulty in judging the relative strength of both teams before the first meeting of the season.

Both Real and Barcelona are vastly superior to the majority of La Liga, so judging how they will match up before they meet is difficult to comprehend based on their other results. Barcelona are 1.800* to win the match, but underdogs of 2.010* at a -0.5 and -1 handicap. Real Madrid are 4.530* to win, with their handicap set at +0.5 and +1, available at 1.926*.

Add to this the fact that both Barcelona and Real Madrid have new managers – and new philosophies – it could be difficult to accurately predict how both will approach the first El Clasico of the season.

How will Martino & Ancelotti approach El Clasico?

Both Gerardo Martino and Carlo Ancelotti have enforced new tactics on Barcelona and Real Madrid respectively since their employment.

There was little transfer movement in or out of Barcelona in the summer – Neymar arrived, while David Villa, Thiago Alcantara and Eric Abidal (none of whom started more than 17 league games last season) have departed – so the changes this season have reflected Martino’s philosophy.

Martino has instructed his players to play more direct. This was perhaps most notable in the 4-0 win against Rayo Vallecano – for the first time in 317 competitive games Barcelona finished the game having had less possession than their opponents.

Ever since their 4-1 defeat to Real Madrid in 2008, Barca’s tiki-taka style has starved their opposition of the ball.

Despite some critics questioning Martino’s approach, it now gives the team a more versatile approach, while club legends Xavi and Iniesta are not guaranteed a start as Martino approaches each game differently.

The evidence thus far suggests Martino is trying to find a compromise between Barcelona’s standard style of football and a more varied approach. Have Barcelona found their perfect match – a manager who appreciates the qualities in their traditional style of play, but also wants variations to become less predictable and more tactically flexible?

Since Ancelotti’s arrival at Real he has looked to slow the tempo of the Galacticos. While under Mourinho, Real had quick transitions from defense to offense, the Italian wants to control the game more effectively by retaining possession. However, Ancelotti has been branded defensive, much like his counterpart Fabio Capello, during his time at the Bernabeu.

Interestingly, under Mourinho Real completely changed their approach when playing in El Clasico. The Portuguese manager tried several approaches – from matching Barca, bullying them with aggression and finally setting on a mix of the two styles.

Ancelotti is not Mourinho however, but he is wise enough to not ignore how Jose turned around Madrid’s fortunes in El Clasico last season – won four, drew two lost one.

One thing is for certain; the first El Clasico will be both Martino’s and Ancelotti’s first true tests.

How have Barcelona performed this season?

Barcelona sit top of La Liga after an excellent start to the season following eight wins, and one draw.

The Catalan’s had the chance to equal Madrid’s 1968/69-season record of nine consecutive wins at the start of La Liga, but drew 0-0 away at Osasuna – the first time they haven’t scored in 65 La Liga games.

Bettors expect Barcelona to dominate other teams in La Liga, but how much value do they offer the bettor on the handicap?

The Spanish giants have covered the spread just 44.4% of the time this season. Nevertheless at home, they have covered an impressive 75% of games at the Nou Camp.

Why are Real Madrid struggling against the handicap?

Madrid are currently third in La Liga, three points adrift of leaders Barcelona having won seven, drawn one and lost one.

Despite being just three points off the pace, Real have been terrible against the spread this season. In their nine La Liga games they have covered the handicap a meager 11.1% of the time.

Breaking this down further highlights the fact that they have failed to beat the handicap even once on the road this season. Is this a sign of a more cautious approach from Real compared to last season?

By comparing Real’s performance last season against seven of their opponents – Villarreal and Elche were promoted this season – they conceded the same amount of goals but scored seven more. Does this highlight a more cautious approach under Ancelotti, and is this the reason they are failing to cover the handicap?

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid: Head-to-Head

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

12/13/2008

Barcelona

-1

2-0

05/02/2009

Barcelona

0

2-6

11/29/2009

Barcelona

-0.5

1-0

04/10/2010

Barcelona

0

0-2

11/29/2010

Barcelona

-0.5

5-0

04/16/2011

Real Madrid

0.25

1-1

12/10/2011

Barcelona

0

1-3

04/21/2012

Real Madrid

-1

1-2

10-07-2012

Real Madrid

-0.5

2-2

03/02/2013

Real Madrid

0.25

2-1

The ten most recent La Liga El Clasico encounters shows Barcelona have dominated the ties, winning six, losing two and drawing two.

Against the handicap, it is noticeable that Barca have also covered the spread 60% of the time. With this said if you look at the last two seasons, Real have covered the last twice at the Nou Camp and three of the four games in La Liga.

These stats are all very interesting but judging the strength of both Real and Barcelona is difficult, given the opposition they are compared against – minus Real’s defeat to Atletico Madrid.

Bettors like traders need to consider a number of factors – new managers, new tactics, new players – before betting on the first El Classico of the season, and given the difficulty in judging their relative ability, this makes the margin for error greater and ultimately the chance for a bettor to make a profit.

Click here for the latest El Clasico odds.

Click here for the latest El Clasico match props.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Why Chelsea are exceeding bookmakers expectations in the EPL

Why Chelsea are exceeding bookmakers expectations in the EPL

By Michael Gales Oct 23, 2013

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The Pinnacle Sports EPL handicap table suggests Chelsea are performing above expectations, while Man City aren’t. Before they meet head-to-head at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, this article informs bettors of key statistics that may explain why that is.

Chelsea formidable at home on the handicap

Eight games into the Premier League season, Chelsea sit just two-points adrift of leaders Arsenal, despite their worst start to a Premier League season during the Roman Abramovich era.

Despite the early criticisms aimed at Jose Mourinho, Chelsea have ominously won their last two EPL games and covered the spread with Pinnacle Sports in their last four games – matched only by Southampton.

As manager of Chelsea, Mourinho has a 64-match unbeaten home record in the Premier League, and has guided his Blues to a 100% start at Stamford Bridge this season – scoring 10 and conceding two from four games.

The Blues have covered the handicap in 62.5% of their Premier League games this season and at the Bridge have covered 75%, with one push against Aston Villa.

However, the visit of preseason Premier League favourites Manchester City is considered the biggest threat to Chelsea and Jose’s unbeaten Stamford Bridge EPL record. This is reflected in the odds as Chelsea are offered at 2.030* at 0 and -0.5 – the tightest handicap they have been offered at home this season.

Have City ended their away day blues?

Despite spending 100m on new players during the summer, Man City had failed to claim an away Premier League win until they beat West Ham at Upton Park on Saturday.

On the road City have lost two, drawn one and won one – Ranking 14th on the road in the Premier League this term. They currently score an average of 1.75 goals per game, but also concede the same. The only away game this season they haven’t found the net, or conceded, was the 0-0 bore draw at the Britannia stadium against Stoke.

75% of City’s away games this season have gone over 2.5 goals, compared to Chelsea games at home which have gone over 50% of games – they have also scored in each of their last 13 EPL games at the Bridge. Pinnacle Sports are offering Over 2.5 and 3 goals at 2.040*.

City have covered the spread 50% of the time which highlights that bookmakers have valued their strength pretty well this season. With this said on the road they have covered their handicap just once.

Chelsea vs. Man City: Head-to-Head

The last ten Premier League encounters between Chelsea and Manchester City at the Stamford Bridge resulted in seven Chelsea wins, two goalless draws and one City victory.

Chelsea vs Man City: Against the spread at The Bridge

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

22/03/2003

Chelsea

-1

5-0

25/10/2003

Push

-1

1-0

06/02/2005

Man City

1.5

0-0

25/03/2006

Chelsea

-1.5

2-0

27/10/2007

Chelsea

-1

6-0

15/03/2009

Man City

1.25

1-0

27/02/2010

Man City

1.25

2-4

20/03/2011

Chelsea

-0.75

2-0

12/12/2011

Chelsea

-0.25

2-1

11/25/2012

Push

0

0-0

During this period Chelsea covered the handicap in half the games, while City did in 30% and there were two pushes. However since City’s takeover, the results are different, with Chelsea and city covering twice, with one push – last year’s 0-0 draw.

There have been an average of 26 goals across the ten games – Chelsea (21), Man City (5). What this doesn’t emphasise however is that City have scored in just two, and four came in their 4-2 win at the bridge in 2009.

How much this historical data is relevant is questionable as both teams have new managers, squads and playing philosophies. The bettor should however, be aware of recent handicap form, and decide whether or not Man City have put pay to their away day blues since their win at Villa or if the Chelsea machine is undervalued at home on the handicap?

Click here to see the latest Premier League odds

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

Particulars to be aware of when betting the 2013 MLB World Series

Particulars to be aware of when betting the 2013 MLB World Series

By Gary Wise Oct 21, 2013

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After thousands of games over the course of the season, MLB’s season is down to the World Series, a best of seven series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox. Whether or not you are a regular baseball bettor, the World Series provides unique betting opportunities, so let’s look at the particulars.

Does experience give the Cardinals an edge?

In 2011, the Cardinals won the World Series 4 games to 3 over the Texas Rangers. While their team has seen some turn over (most notably, Manager Tony La Russa and all-time great Albert Pujols are no longer with the club) the core bears some similarity to that championship team.

St. Louis also made the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, while Boston haven’t been to the playoffs since 2009. Experience is a difficult aspect to weigh, but if you believe in its importance, the edge goes to the Cardinals with a caveat; St. Louis’ success this year has been built in part on rookies.

Standout starting pitchers Michael Wacha, Joe Kelley and Shelby Miller along with first baseman Matt Adams have been key to the club’s success. Same seemingly goes for 2nd-year manager Mike Matheny, though there are those who feel his tactical game could use some work.

Recent World Series history between the two clubs is not relevant

The above details are relevant. Anything you may hear about recent World Series history between the two clubs is not. In coming days, we’ll be reminded time and again that in 2004, Boston won its first World Series in 88 years by demolishing St. Louis 4-0.

Only one player playing in this year’s edition, David Ortiz, was a full-time player for either team in 2004. The similarities are in the laundry, not in those executing the plays. We mention this as a reminder to focus on the data that matters.

Rule differences and the Designated Hitter

MLB is the only major professional organization whose two leagues operate under different rules. In the Cardinals’ National League (NL), pitchers who are generally unsuited to the task are forced to hit. In the American League (AL), the Designated Hitter (DH) hits in place of the pitcher. In interleague play, the home team’s league rules apply, so games 1, 2, 6 and 7 (all held in Boston’s Fenway Park) will use the DH, while games 3, 4 and 5 (hosted at Busch Stadium in St. Louis) will not.

This is important. The most obvious conundrum facing either manager in this series concerns what Boston’s John Farrell should do about 38-year old David Ortiz. One of the best hitters in baseball for the last decade, Ortiz is an atrocious fielder who is seldom given the chance to try. Of the 135 games Ortiz played this year, only 6 saw him take the field at first base, mostly because the DH rule afforded the Red Sox opportunity to let him hit without having to put on a glove.

Ortiz’s bat is potent enough (especially against right-handed pitchers; St. Louis won’t be starting any left-handers) that the Red Sox may try to get him into the lineup in games 3-5, meaning A) first baseman Mike Napoli, himself a strong hitter, may have to take a seat and B) the Red Sox’ defense would be weakened. Napoli’s bat has actually kept up with Ortiz‘s through the postseason, so lineup announcements will be important in assessing your bets. Either way, Boston loses a big bat while on the road.

As the DH goes, St. Louis is better situated than most NL teams. As we’ll see in a moment, most NL teams lack a true professional hitter to fill the DH slot on occasion leaving them at a deficit. For St. Luis, the emergence of Matt Adams has filled the void created by injury to all-star Allen Craig.

Will Home Field Advantage have a role?

As discussed in this article on playoff baseball, the home team wins 53.8% of all games played in MLB, but adjustments have to be made for sampling like this one. Both Cardinals (67%) and Red Sox (65%) had strong regular season home win percentages, with fans of both teams known for knowledge and passion. Additionally, Boston’s Fenway Park has unusual dimensions that are tough on players who haven’t played with them before.

Beyond the question of the two teams though is the question of how to account for the interleague home-field advantage in your betting calculations. Some, like Tigers Manager Jim Leyland, think the changes hurt American League clubs:

“We play with the DH rules. The American League gets penalized, even though the record’s been decent over the years. We get penalized. Their pitchers are hitting and bunting all year, and they get the advantage of letting their pitchers rest and using the DH when they come here, and we gotta use guys six straight days without Victor Martinez or Alex Avila or somebody. That’s ridiculous. Totally ridiculous, and they ought to look into it…”

It’s a good quote, but Leyland is dead wrong about where the advantage lies. Have a look at these win % numbers taken from Is There a Home Field Advantage in Interleague Play?, an in-depth look at interleague records from 1997-2009 by Economics Professor Paul M. Sommers:

Entity

Home/Away/All?

W%

AL

Home

56.9

AL

Away

46.8

AL

All

51.9

NL

Home

53.2

NL

Away

43

NL

All

48.1

In recent years, the AL has been considered the superior league, an effect of the arms race between the Red Sox and New York Yankees raising the level of competition. This accounts for the American League’s advantage overall, but what we’re seeing here is a greater home field advantage in interleague play (approx 5%) than in general terms (approx 3.8%). Ballpark familiarity could hold a sliver of influence here, but this is more likely a result of the influences Leyland mentioned, so his logic was sound even if he reached the wrong conclusion. Don’t do the same; adjust your calculations accordingly.

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Discussing WSOP short-stack chances… with the players

Discussing WSOP short-stack chances… with the players

By Gary Wise Sep 23, 2013

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A number of factors need to be considered when assessing the chances of the short-stacks at the WSOP main event final table. We went to the source – Mark Newhouse and David Benefield – to help us, help you, assess them.

With 190,675,000 chips in play amongst the nine remaining players at the WSOP, Benefield has 6,375,000 (3.34%) chips, while Newhouse has 7,350,000 (3.85%), easily the two smallest stacks – aka short stacks

The value of a chip

Chip Total & Current Odds

Player

Stack

Odds

JC Tran

38,000,000

3.93*

Amir Lehavot

29,700,000

6.06*

Marc Etienne

26,250,000

6.07*

Jay Farber

25,975,000

6.95*

Ryan Riess

25,875,000

6.98*

Sylvain Loosli

19,600,000

9.17*

Michiel Brummelhuis

11,275,000

15.97*

Mark Newhouse

7,350,000

23.97*

David Benefield

6,375,000

15.50*

How do we extrapolate the odds of each player winning? The simplest method is to determine what percentage of the chips in play their stack holds. By this notion, if there are 1,000,000 chips in play and a player has 300,000 chips, that player would have a 30% chance of winning the tournament. However, the calculation isn’t as simple as that.

“You have to account for something called the Independent Chip Model (ICM),” Newhouse explained. “Basically, the chips change value. My 7.5 million is probably worth more than 7.5 million in JC’s stack. Chips I can gain are worth more than chips I can lose…if I lose my chips, I’m out. If I double up and lose half my stack, I’m not out. The shorter your stack, the greater the value of each chip.”

In other words, if Newhouse had twice the chips, he wouldn’t have twice the equity. Survival counts for something.

The effect of the prize jumps

Prize Structure

Position

Winnings

1st place

$8,359,531

2nd place

$5,173,170

3rd place

$3,727,023

4th place

$2,791,983

5th place

$2,106,526

6th place

$1,600,792

7th place

$1,225,224

8th place

$944,593

9th place

$733,324

“I think players will be tentative to play big pots early on. Most of the players will want to play a little more conservatively until Mark or I bust, locking in a higher payout.” Benefield theorised

If Benefield is right, the short stacks will have more time than normal to wait for an optimal moment to double up or otherwise increase their chip count.

Lights, camera, action

With players competing for previously unseen sums of money and the title of world champion under the watchful gaze of an international audience, they face a new kind of pressure. Both Newhouse and Benefield are veterans of televised poker, a fact that may play as an advantage.

“A lot of it is about experience, having been there before,” Newhouse enthused. “People like me, JC and David will make better reads, have the better timing, make better decisions than people who don’t have that experience. A less-experienced player might make a wrong read where JC would not, and the ramifications are huge.”

Benefield doesn’t see the advantage as clearly. “I think being comfortable in a very public setting, on camera, and in a high pressure situation is important here, but poker is still poker. It’s possible someone cracks under the pressure and starts giving away their chips, but I expect these guys will play their best game all the way through.”

“If I were to play 22 times I think I’d win it 3 times”

Final assessments

“I’m thinking I want to put the bets down on myself,” Newhouse said upon looking over the odds. “I just feel like it’s a good bet. I think if I were to play this tournament 24 years in a row using this situation, I’d win more than once. If I were to play 22 times…I know I’m a dog with my stack, but I think I’d win it 3 times. Personally, I’d bet big on 22-1.”

“I like to think I have a skill advantage over the other players” said Benefield. “I think seating arrangement is one of the most important aspects here. I am very happy with my current seat at the table.”

The market apparently agrees, taking his opening odds of 26.61 and shortening them to 15.50*.

Bet on the World Series of Poker main event final table here.

*Odds subject to change

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Can Johnson defend Flyweight title?

Can Johnson defend Flyweight title?

By Michael Gales Jul 17, 2013

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UFC on Fox 8 comes from the Key Arena in Seattle Washington on July 27th. The main event sees Demetrious Johnson defend his flyweight title against John Moraga. Johnson is the huge favourite at Pinnacle Sports, but can Moraga use his grappling advantage to cause an upset?

Johnson heavy favourite to defend title

Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson 1.239* is the heavy favourite to defend his flyweight title against challenger John Moraga 4.600* at UFC on Fox 8 on July 27th.

‘Mighty Mouse’ has a 17-2-1 MMA record compared to Moraga who holds a 13-1 record. Moraga’s streak includes a seven-fight winning streak, and though he has won both of his MMA championship fights in the past, neither have were in the UFC code.

The pair were scheduled to fight earlier in April at The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale, but Johnson was forced out through injury. With only three months since the injury, will Johnson have recuperated in time?

Johnson has won three fights in succession after drawing with Ian McCall at UFC on FX and will look to defend his title for a second time.

During his last fight the champion overcame being dropped twice by Dodson and gradually took control of the fight winning a unanimous decision.

Moraga inflicted a fourth career defeat onto Chris Cariaso via submission the last time he ventured into the octagon at UFC 155 in December 2012, and his only defeat came against Dodson back in December 2010.

Moraga will look to use size advantage

Moraga is a big underdog for the fight despite his excellent MMA record to date and holding a height and reach advantage over the champion.

Both orthodox pugilists will enter the octagon around the 125lbs weight limit, but the challenger is 3 inches taller (5 6) and has a one-inch reach advantage (67).

How Morago uses his physical advantage to combat the speed of Johnson could be key to him upsetting the odds and claiming the UFC flyweight title.

Neither fighter has suffered a KO loss

With just three defeats between the two fighters, neither man has suffered defeat by KO or submission.

Stylistically, Johnson has an approach similar to Frankie Edgar. He is fast, can strike, get out, and snag takedowns when necessary.

Johnson has improved his striking in recent times and lands on average 3.39 strikes per minute. The champion isn’t renowned for his KO power (17% of wins by KO) but uses his striking ability to set up takedowns.

Moraga has decent stand up ability and throws on average 4 strikes per minute but could find it tough to get through the excellent defence of Johnson who avoids 66% of opponent’s strikes.

Battle of the mat key

Moraga’s specialises in wrestling and submissions. The challenger has a 100% takedown accuracy and averages 2.01 takedowns every 15 minutes, while the champion has a 61% grappling defence and is notoriously difficult to takedown.

Johnson & Moraga Fight Statistics

Striking

Johnson

Moraga

Strikes landed per/min

3.39

4.01

Striking accuracy

50%

44%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.97

3.68

Defense

66%

67%

Grappling

Johnson

Moraga

Takedown average/15min

3.21

2.01

Takedown accuracy

49%

100%

Takedown defence

61%

86%

Submission average/15min

0.08

1

Johnson has showcased his wrestling ability both offensively and defensively since he joined the UFC. ‘Mighty Mouse’ averages 3.21 takedowns every 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 49%. However he will need to improve the accuracy as Moraga repels 86% of his opponent’s grapples.

Johnson is more effective on his feet, but if the fight does hit the ground he can hold his own. He has been involved in some quality grappling exchanges against the elite flyweights and bantamweights over recent years and has six submission victories (35% of his victories) to his name.

Moraga is a submission specialist and has won 46% of his fights by making his opponent tap out and averages one submission attempt every three rounds.

Experience & fitness could prove vital in later rounds

Five rounds are scheduled so experience and fitness could decide the outcome of this fight.

Despite being three-years younger than the challenger, 26-year-old Johnson has experience fighting past the third round on four occasions, compared to Moraga who has never been involved in the championship rounds.

Johnson also has tremendous cardio, which allows him to fight at a ferocious pace for the distance of the bout. The champion has won 47% of fights on the judge’s scorecard, while Moraga has claimed five wins at the final bell but is untested in the championship rounds.

It is worth noting that Moraga has finished 71% of his last seven fights and both of his UFC fights, which explains why his average fight time (07:29) is more than ten minutes less than Johnson’s.

Click here for the best UFC on Fox 8 Johnson vs. Moraga odds

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*Odds subject to change

Qualifying vital at Hungaroring

Qualifying vital at Hungaroring

By Michael Gales Jul 25, 2013

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After a three-week break Formula One arrives at the Hungaroring for the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 28th. With 97% of winners starting on the front two rows of the grid, a solid qualifying performance is vital.

The Hungaroring Circuit – green, tight & slow

After a three week break Formula One arrives at the Hungaroring for the 27th Hungarian Grand Prix and 10th round of the 2013 Formula One calendar.

The 10th Formula One of 2013 takes place on a twisty circuit that takes full advantage of the natural terrain, using the bumps and peaks of the valley to create a unique driving challenge. The tight and winding track features 14 corners and an average speed in the region of 180kph making it the second-slowest circuit of the year after Monaco.

Despite being a track circuit the venue is only used once a year, meaning the surface becomes very dusty and ‘green’. Consequently its characteristics become similar to a temporary street circuit, where the track is at its quickest on the final lap of the race weekend.

This dust means it is difficult for drivers to go off the racing line to attempt an overtaking move as the dirt on the tyres makes the car difficult to drive for the next corners. The challenges facing the teams and drivers at the Hungaroring are a complete contrast to the Nurburgring.

Tyres could be a lottery

Pirelli will bring the medium and soft compounds – the same nomination as last year. Importantly, the construction of the tyres has changed, with the 2012 structure matched with the 2013 compounds.

The new construction was successfully tested at Silverstone last week during the young driver test. All teams apart from Mercedes – the German team was banned from testing after an illegal tyre test earlier in the season – will have benefitted from the opportunity to adapt the set-up of their cars to best suit the new tyres.

With temperatures expected to reach 40c over the weekend the tyres will come under punishment. Lateral energy will be low around the track – slow twisty track – so tyre performance rather than durability will be the limiting factor.

Overtaking is notoriously difficult, so teams will look to gain an edge through tyre and race strategy to gain track position. The combination of soft and medium tyres will provide a number of chances to employ a number of mixed strategies.

Start on the front two rows of the grid

It is no coincidence that the Hungaroring track averages just 17.48 overtakes per race. Because of the infrequent use of the track, it takes more cars running through the track until a clean line emerges. However, because there is only one clear line around the narrow circuit, a lot of dirt, dust and marbles accumulate off the racing line, making the problem of overtaking even harder – meaning a good qualifying performance is vital.

Another indicator of the difficulty in overtaking in Hungary is that 97% of the last 23 Grand Prix have been won by a driver starting on the front two rows on the grid – the only exception was Jenson Button’s victory in 2006 when he won from 14th.

Solid correlation between qualifying & finishing position

We have already proved there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same model we have examined the last ten Hungarian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Hungaroring as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a strong 0.64 correlation between qualifying and race position at the Hungaroring. Interestingly, the correlation is amongst the strongest so far this season.

A good 70% of races correlate, with just three GP’s having a poor correlation – 2006 (0.21), 2009 (0.46) and 2010 (0.45). Interestingly the worst correlation in 2006 was due to variable weather. This correlation proves that qualifying at the Hungarian GP provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

47% of pole sitters have gone on to win the Hungarian GP in the last 23 GPs, proving that pole position gives you a chance but not a certain victory around the Hungaroring.

Click here to see the latest Hungarian Grand Prix odds.

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*Odds subject to change

5 great reasons to bet on the Bundesliga

5 great reasons to bet on the Bundesliga

By Michael Gales Aug 6, 2013

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Ahead of the new Bundesliga season on August 9th, Pinnacle Sports looks at five great reasons to bet on the Bundesliga this year. From the arrival of Guardiola to how teams perform against the spread, read on for in-depth Bundesliga betting information.

The Guardiola effect on Europe’s best

The departure of Jupp Heynckes left a lot of questions concerning Bayern Munich for this season, despite the appointment of a talented successor in Pep Guardiola. Correctly answering these questions before the rest of the betting public could see big rewards for the sharp bettor.

Despite reaching three of the previous four Champions League finals, it was the dominant performance against Barcelona in the semi-final last season that saw a shift towards the Bavarians as the powerhouse of European soccer.

So what will the ‘Guardiola’ effect be?

Even before Jupp Heynckes had completed his record-breaking feat as manager, the German giants had announced that Pep Guardiola would replace him. So what will the ‘Guardiola’ effect be?

In the preseason Bayern won all nine games, scoring an average of 6.7 goals per game, although 15-1 and 13-0 wins over the Bayern Fanclub Wildenau and Paulaner Dream Team somewhat skew the data.

However, Guardiola, who won 13 trophies in four years at Barcelona, lost their first competitive game against rivals Dortmund 4-2 in the German Supercup.

With more pressure, more scrutiny and an almost perfect season to be compared against, is it plausible that Bayern could be the next victim of their own success?

How will Pep keep his big names happy? Can he maintain the work ethic Heynckes drilled into Bayern that saw Arjen Robben and Frank Ribery transform from lazy players into workhorses? Tactically, will he try and stamp his authority on a team that won the treble, and what effect could this have?

After all, the only place to go once you reach the top is down… just ask Barcelona.

Bundesliga against the spread – Bayern come up short

Comparing Asian Handicaps with actual match results is a good way to judge how accurate the market is at predicting a team’s performance. The closing odds typically show the most accurate handicap prediction, and therefore if the actual match results are way-off, teams have been either over- or underrated by the betting public. Noticing patterns in these results can help you take advantage of them, and the market’s ignorance.

One such pattern is Bayern Munich. While the Bavarians have covered the spread 49.48% of the time, they failed to cover the spread 61.76% of the time in last year’s record-breaking season. Despite their exceptional form, they were over-rated and a poor team to back against the spread.

Wolfsburg (11th), Werder Bremen (14th) and Stuttgart (12th) all underperformed last season, which was reflected in their form against the handicap (spread) – Wolfsburg (64.71%), Werder Bremen (61.76%) and Stuttgart (61.76%) were the worst three ATS (against the spread) teams in the Bundesliga.

Hannover covered the spread on 67.65% of occasions last season, 11.77% more than Borussia Monchengladbach – the second most successful team ATS last season. This shows bookmakers and the markets consistently underestimated Hannover’s ability. This is an example of a team where there is value to be had betting on them against the spread by appreciating their value.

Both Augsburg and Freiburg pushed six times last season against the average of 2.6, which suggests the bookmakers and markets had a more accurate prediction of their ability in terms of the outcome of their games.

Sustainability success for Dortmund & Freiburg

Another key question for bettors is will Dortmund and Freiburg sustain their form this season, or could changes cause them to be over or under rated?

Sustainability in soccer has always been an indicator for how successful teams perform year-on-year – Bayern have finished inside the top four in all of the last ten seasons, while Schalke have done so 70% of the time.

After surrendering their title to Bayern last season, Borussia Dortmund will be aiming to continue their fine form despite selling prize asset Mario Gotze to bitter rivals Bayern.

Can Freiburg sustain their form?

The BVB have finished inside the top five in 40% of the last ten seasons – all four of those appearances occurring in the previous four seasons. Manager Jurgen Klopp has built a squad based on youthful players, but what impact will the sale of Gotze have on the team?

To further Dortmund’s problems, top goal scorer over the past two seasons Robert Lewandowski has already announced he will leave for Bayern at the end of this season on a free transfer. What affect does this have on their sustainability?

Continually losing their best players makes a team reliant on producing replacement talent, however when that runs dry, so may their success.

Freiburg surprised many bettors last season by finishing fifth in the Bundesliga when they had averaged a 13th place finish in their last five seasons in the top flight.

However, success for a smaller team can see many players head for the exit before the start of the next campaign. So far this preseason Freiburg have lost six first team players on the back of their sensational performance last year.

Can Freiburg sustain their form, even if they don’t have the youth recruitment like Dortmund? If they can’t, then how much of an affect will it have?

Key Numbers – Pointers from the 2012/13 Bundesliga season

Last seasons Bundesliga was record breaking for a number of reasons, so here are a few key numbers that will interest bettors.

Despite having seven teams in the top 12 average attendances in European football, the Home Field Advantage (1.53 goals) – calculated by goals scored for the home team – on average for the Bundesliga is lower than the eight top domestic leagues around the world – Brazil, England, France, Italy, Holland, Portugal, Russia, Spain.

The 2012/13 Bundesliga season saw a huge 32% of away wins (matches won away from home), which has happened only once before since the Bundesliga’s inception in 1963. Bayern’s sensational season saw them win 88% of their away games, which could go some way to explaining why the value was so high.

In the Bundesliga last season though, 898 goals were scored at an average of 2.93 per game, which is more than seven big domestic leagues and only beaten by the Dutch Eredivisie (3.15 goals), while 56% of games saw more than three goals scored per game. In addition, an average of 1.34 goals per Bundesliga game were scored by the away side – more than every season since 1980/81.

Almost 3,000 corners were taken during last season, yet on average, a goal was scored every 46 corners (65 goals) – the lowest in the past decade. Corner and foul data is useful when betting live on the Bundesliga.

Despite fewer fouls committed throughout the season, the number of red cards increased. 64 red cards were issued – 50% of dismissals came as a result of second yellow cards – which was more than any season since 2003/04.

Movers & Shakers

Before betting on the new Bundesliga season be sure to research each team and find what transformations have happened during the close season to give yourself a chance of gaining an edge.

Despite losing a host of big players over recent years, Schalke remain one of the most consistent teams in the Bundesliga after rebuilding with youth. But with the sale of Lewis Holtby last year, how many more of their Wunderkind’s will be picked off?

Werder Bremen have appointed Robin Dutt as manager, a former youth manager at the German football federation. Dutt performed well at Freiburg – gaining promotion to the Bundesliga in 2007-08 but failed at Leverkusen. How will Dutt’s determination to succeed at Bremen affect their performance this season?

Wolfsburg were expected to challenge for the title last season, but struggled and finished 11th. After a failed second stint in charge, Dieter Hecking replaced Felix Magath. After winning the Bundesliga in 2009, can the Wolves return to genuine contenders this year?

Another reason to bet on the Bundesliga this season is that Pinnacle Sports have the highest limits, lowest margins and best odds.

Click here to see the latest Bundesliga odds.

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*Odds subject to change

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

Great reasons to bet on the 2013/14 Serie A season

By Charlie Rowing Aug 20, 2013

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With the new Serie A season kicking off on August 24th, Pinnacle Sports investigates why the Italian top flight holds betting promise this coming season. From the decline of the Milan giants to how teams perform against the spread, read on for in-depth Serie A betting information.

Juventus aim to make it three in a row

After five seasons of turmoil – they were relegated to Serie B in 2006 after being found guilty in a match-fixing scandal – Juventus are once more considered the dominant force in Italian football.

Manager Antonio Conte has worked wonders to return the Old Lady to her former glory. After an incredible first season in charge (2011/12) that saw Juventus go unbeaten, Conte steered the team to a second successive title.

The double winners will look to keep their momentum going as they chase a third successive Serie A title – a feat which they haven’t achieved since the 1930’s.

The impressive arrivals of Carlos Tevez, Fernando Llorente and Angelo Ogbonna have strengthened the group, which could prove key in race for the title. But will this excessive strength unbalance the handicap market, causing bettors to overrate Juventus’ chances? Or will Juventus regress to the mean, unable to retain their excellent form in a strengthened league?

They are 1.746* to retain their title this season.

Whatever happens in Serie A this season, understanding the strength of Juventus will be key to calculate the outcome of the league and spread bets.

The fall of the Milan greats

Both AC Milan and Inter Milan have 36 Serie A titles between them but it looks like their recent woes will continue this season.

Despite a strong second-half last season which saw them finish 3rd – mainly down to the January signing of Mario Balotelli – Milan haven’t made any notable signings (at time of writing).

AC Milan are 5.810* to win Serie A.

Inter have made a host of signings, along with a change of manager after their abysmal 9th place finish last season. After winning five Serie A titles in succession from 2005-2010, the Nerazzurri have fallen short after the departure of Jose Mourinho.

In fact, their form has struggled so much that if you had bet 10 on them losing every game last season you would have made 150 profit. This suggests that the betting public overrated them last season – will it happen again?

Inter Milan are 2.050* to gain over 63.5 points this season.

Napoli & Fiorentina strong contenders

Last season Juventus won the Scudetto fairly comfortably (by nine points). This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli 6.880* and Fiorentina11.630*.

Despite the loss of star player Edinson Cavani to PSG and the departure of manager Walter Mazzarri to Inter Milan during the summer, Napoli have heavily reinforced their team in the close season. Respected manager Rafa Benitez was brought in, fresh from Europa Cup success, alongside Gonzalo Higuain, Pepe Reina and Raul Albiol amongst others.

This year looks set to be closer with the biggest challengers to Juve’s crown coming from Napoli and Fiorentina.

For the first time since the early 1980s, this season offers Fiorentina a realistic chance of winning the Scudetto. The marque signing of Mario Gomez from Bayern Munich must be seen as a real statement of intent, while Giuseppe Rossi will be looking to put his injury problems behind him and re-build his reputation as one of Europe’s top strikers.

It was widely regarded that the Viola played some of the most attractive football in Italy last season. Whether or not manager Vincenzo Montella can capitalise on last seasons form will be pivotal in deciding whether or not Fiorentina have a realistic chance of claiming their first Serie A title since 1968-69?

The expectation on these two sides could cause an interesting dynamic in handicap betting. Will the crowd over- or under-estimate the strength of these reinvigorated sides?

Last season’s interesting statistics

Last season’s Home Field Advantage was measured at a 1.65 goal advantage for home sides over their visiting opposition, which is only second to La Liga in the major European leagues.

A huge 51% of games involving Roma had over 3.5 goals, only Barcelona and Hannover had more in Europe. So it could be worth thinking about Roma when it comes to the over/under goals market in 2013/14.

Juventus conceded just 24 goals last season, only PSG (23) and Bayern Munich (18) conceded fewer in all of Europe. The 10 goals they conceded at home made them Europe’s meanest defence, equalled only by PSG.

Catania covered the spread an amazing 60% of the time last season, which shows they were undervalued by the betting public. This is interesting because they finished the season in 8th place, just 10 points shy from qualifying for Europe. Gli Elefanti are 2.010* to reach over 47.5 points.

Genoa finished in 17th place for the second season running, will they be good enough to narrowly avoid the drop again? Genoa are currently set at 43.5 points, at1.926* Over/Under.

Five years in succession at least one side promoted from Serie B has been relegated straight back down at the end of the season. How will Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Livorno fair?

Click here to see the best Serie A odds.

*Odds subject to change

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Weight could prove decisive in Mayweather vs. Alvarez outcome

Weight could prove decisive in Mayweather vs. Alvarez outcome

By Michael Gales Sep 6, 2013

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Floyd Mayweather fights Saul Alvarez on September 14th with both fighters’ unbeaten records on the line. With a 152lb catch weight, how pivotal will the 2lb difference be? This preview looks at a number of subjective factors that could affect the outcome of the fight.

‘Power’ may cause an upset

Both fighters enter the ring unbeaten but it is Floyd ‘Pretty Boy’ Mayweather who is the big 1.385* favourite to keep his unblemished record, while Saul ‘El Canelo’ Alvarez is the 3.310* underdog.

Mayweather (44-0-0 26 KO) is renowned for not getting hit. At his best, his defense and the ability to manage danger has made him unbeatable.

Having been down just once in his career against Carlos Hernandez, ‘Pretty Boy’ has never fought anyone who could knock him out – Mayweather avoided the likes of Kostya Tszu and Manny Pacquiao on his way up the ranks, both who had a realistic chance of putting him down with one punch – like Alvarez can.

Floyd’s own punching power has come under question with just three knockouts in his last ten fights. Alvarez (41-1-0 30 KO) on the other hand has real punching power. He badly hurt Austin Trout last time out and has knocked out 73% of his opponents, and will carry a genuine threat to Mayweather.

Alvarez’s menace is resembled in the odds, with the youngster offered at 5.500* to win before the final bell, however the most likely outcome according to the bookmakers is a points win by Mayweather 1.671*.

Who will the 152-pound catch weight benefit?

With the fight agreed at a 152-pound catch weight, how will this impact on the fight and who will it benefit?

If the size difference wasn’t an issue, the fight wouldn’t be at the catch weight. So come fight night it could potentially be one of the most significant stats in this bout. While both fighters are a similar height, Alvarez is stockier and appears to be stronger.

Mayweather prefers to fight at 147lbs, which allows him to maintain his fast hands and carry enough power to keep his opponents wary in their approach. Interestingly ‘Pretty Boy’ has fought twice before at junior middleweight (154lbs), but never come in above 151lbs.

Alvarez in comparison is comfortable at 154lbs and will naturally grow into a middleweight. However, the Mexican has regularly hydrated up to above 170 pounds.

It’s this 20-pound difference that could decide the outcome of the fight. In recent bouts Mayweather has looked comfortable fighting on the ropes, countering his opponents as they look to force the fight, however against a heavy Alvarez he could risk becoming worn down if the Mexican leans his extra weight on him all night.

Mayweather may face the problem of having to use his movement to avoid Canelo, however at 36, moving away from a larger opponent maybe as exhausting as letting him lean.

Who will the 2lbs hinder more? Bettors need to consider whether Alvarez will be faster or drained and if Mayweather will be sluggish?

Master vs. the apprentice

At 23 Alvarez is entering his prime years, while Mayweather will be 36, an age when the majority of fighters are declining.

Fighters in their late 30s can age overnight. Mayweather however, is not like most fighters, and has showed no signs of declining when he beat Robert Guerrero by unanimous decision in May, while his technical genius is a perfect foil to disguise any normal signs of ageing.

If the size difference wasn’t an issue, the fight wouldn’t be at the catch weight

Still, Alvarez’s status as the younger, hungrier fighter will compliment his approach to bully and pressurise Mayweather. Despite being just 23 Alvarez is vastly experienced for his age with 42 fights to his name – made possible by Mexico’s lower age requirement of 15 for professional fighters.

The young Mexican has been a major draw in his homeland since his teen years, so being thrown into the media spotlight will not be as daunting as it would for most young fighters.

Still the difference in experience is substantial. ‘Pretty Boy’ has been fighting in title fights since Alvarez was a small child and will ultimately have the edge in experience. So far Austin Trout is the only world-class opponent Alvarez has faced in his prime – Shane Moseley was a shadow of his former self when Alvarez beat him.

The win over Trout established Alvarez as the top fighter in his division, however Mayweather is a big step-up in quality. ‘Pretty Boy’ meanwhile has shown no signs of falling from his own peak anytime soon, but at 36, how long can this continue?

Fight Stats

Both fighters’ career statistics show that Mayweather lands on average 24 punches more than his opponents compared to Alvarez who lands an average of 18 more.

The Mexican (42%) surprisingly has a 1% advantage in punches landed, however he also gets tagged with 24% of his opponents punches compared to just 17% for Mayweather.

Alvarez lands 52% of power punches compared to 48% for Floyd, while ‘Pretty Boys’ defence is highlighted once more as he evades 21% of his opponents power punches.

Expect Alvarez to fight on the front foot, as he is notoriously busy in rounds landing on average 20 punches per round, while Mayweather throws amongst the fewest punches per round in boxing with an average of just 23.

This fight has a number of interesting permutations that can influence the outcome of the fight. The better the bettor understand these, will be key behind them making a profit.

See the latest Mayweather vs. Alvarez odds

*Odds subject to change

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Understanding the Europa League

Understanding the Europa League

By Michael Gales Sep 13, 2013

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The Europa League is an unusual competition, mixing teams from across Europe with contrasting prioritisation of its importance. Understanding more about the UEL’s format, such as the coefficients and who takes it seriously, is key to successful betting.

Understand who is taking the tournament seriously

The Europa League can be viewed as the poor cousin of UEFA’s elite competition – seen as more of a hindrance than an opportunity for bigger European teams. Those teams that aspire to join Europe’s elite prioritise domestic success – offering the Holy Grail of Champions League participation – ahead of the demands of travel to some of European soccer’s more remote outposts.

The poor opinion that Europe’s bigger leagues have of the Europa League, may have been behind UEFA’s decision to change the rules to reward the winner with a Champions League place making the competition potentially more valuable.

Keep on top of current coefficients

Bettors should understand UEFA’s European coefficient tables – Club & Country – instead of relying on preconceptions and traditional ideas of European soccer hierarchies as a betting guide. For instance bettors can be guilty of over-estimating the value of teams they are familiar with, are more fashionable, or have had historical European success rather than looking at recent form. Read more on this ‘halo effect’ here. The UEFA coefficients are based on the results of clubs competing in the five previous seasons of the UEFA Champions League and Europa League. (Click here to see latest coefficient tables).

For example, Bayern Munich are unsurprisingly top of the coefficient table after appearing in three of the last five Champions League finals. However, Lazio were once Champions League regulars but have slipped to 48th, while Benfica are 6th above the likes of AC Milan (12th) and Juventus (21st).

The coefficient system is not without its detractors, however. Because the number is averaged over five years, one poor season can skew data dramatically downwards. Likewise, if a team starts to lose form over three years, but won a title five years ago, the coefficient might be artificially high. Therefore it’s important to not just examine the overall coefficient, but the five-year numbers it is generated from.

Thorough research pays off

When betting on individual Europa League matches, research is a bettor’s best friend. By understanding as much about both teams will give the bettor the best chance of making a profit.

In addition to teams that rank highly in their domestic league, the Europa League is riddled with teams who have qualified as domestic cup final winners or losers. Traditionally, league qualifiers show greater reliability than their cup-qualifying rivals, although they have proven they can raise their game for an occasion. As with the Champions League, the qualification starts in early summer with some of the continent’s small domestic leagues featuring effectively amateur teams.

For example Wigan are currently playing in the English Championship after being relegated last season, however they qualified for the competition by beating Man City in the FA Cup final.

Study domestic form

Researching the domestic form of clubs across the continent is a great way to gain knowledge on who are on unbeaten runs, who are struggling, which teams are defensively solid and which teams struggle to score.

Understanding a clubs form before betting will give the punter the best chance to make informed judgments, and make sure they don’t miss out on opportunities to make a profit.

Beware the foreign fortress

Bettors can underestimate European teams in their own stadium, by assuming that because they are a weaker – biased preconceptions can impact how bettors view teams – team than their opposition, they won’t be good at home.

For instance, Turkish giants Fenerbahce have lost just four games at home in their last 70 fixtures at the Sukru Saracoglu stadium – although despite qualifying, they won’t be competing in European football for two years.

Realising which teams have a fortress at home is key to ensuring you are on the right track to make a profit on your Europa League betting journey.

Champions League dropouts

When selecting your Europa League betting picks you should always consider the teams that have entered the knockout stages after being eliminated from the Champions League.

Last season saw European giants Chelsea, Benfica and Ajax take the step down from Europe’s bigger club competition, and Chelsea went on to become the first team to win the Europa League following a Champions League victory.

Click here to see the latest Europa League odds.

*Odds subject to change

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The Singapore Grand Prix: When the lights go down

The Singapore Grand Prix: When the lights go down

By Michael Gales Sep 20, 2013

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Following two fast circuits in the heartland of Europe – Spa and Monza – Formula One is now headed for the Singapore Grand Prix - the ultra-modern Singapore street circuit, which is the only race on the calendar run at night under street lamps.

The effect of the lightening on the drivers is not that dramatic as the track is lighter than at midday on a sunny day and four times brighter than a football stadium.

In addition to the nighttime race there are a number of other factors that make the Marina Bay circuit unique.

In terms of duration, this is usually the longest race of the year as it often comes close to the two-hour time limit, which means that the cars carry the heaviest fuel load of the season.

It’s also one of the most humid (between 75% and 90%) races of the year, and statistically there’s a high chance of rain and a safety car. All these elements can affect tyre wear and degradation as well as a drivers race strategy.

Track easier on the tyres

The drivers will have the medium and supersoft tyre available for the race and qualifying. The Marina Bay circuit is bumpy – a typical feature of street circuits –which compromises grip and traction, and given the traction is fundamental around this track due to 23 corners, drivers face the battle of driving with a lack of grip.

Despite the cars carrying the heaviest fuel loads of the year, which can have a direct effect on tyre wear, the track is relatively easy going on tyres. For the drivers though it’s a different story: the high temperatures, humidity, and length of the race demand a lot physically.

The two previous races at Spa and Monza are historically hard on tyres, however the Singapore GP throws up new challenges, which will allow teams to formulate a number of different strategies.

Strategy

Race strategy at Singapore has to be flexible in order to take into account the high safety car probability (there were two safety car periods last year) and the possibility of rain.

12 months ago the three podium finishers all used a two-stop strategy, while the entire top ten on the grid started on the supersoft compound.

Correlation

Previously, we’ve proved that there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same model, we examined all five Singapore Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Marina Bay circuit as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a 0.58 correlation between qualifying and race position. In addition to the strong relationship the data highlights 60% of races correlate, showcasing that qualifying at the Singapore GP provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

Three of the five polesitters have secured the win. The data also highlights if you have a smooth race there is a good chance of winning from pole as the two drivers that failed to do so had incidents which resulted in the 15th and 24th finishes respectively.

Click here for the latest Singapore Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

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