июля 2013 ~ Betting is life

понедельник, 29 июля 2013 г.

Qualifying vital at Hungaroring

By Michael Gales Jul 25, 2013

After a three-week break Formula One arrives at the Hungaroring for the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 28th. With 97% of winners starting on the front two rows of the grid, a solid qualifying performance is vital.

The Hungaroring Circuit – green, tight & slow

After a three week break Formula One arrives at the Hungaroring for the 27th Hungarian Grand Prix and 10th round of the 2013 Formula One calendar.

The 10th Formula One of 2013 takes place on a twisty circuit that takes full advantage of the natural terrain, using the bumps and peaks of the valley to create a unique driving challenge. The tight and winding track features 14 corners and an average speed in the region of 180kph making it the second-slowest circuit of the year after Monaco.

Despite being a track circuit the venue is only used once a year, meaning the surface becomes very dusty and ‘green’. Consequently its characteristics become similar to a temporary street circuit, where the track is at its quickest on the final lap of the race weekend.

This dust means it is difficult for drivers to go off the racing line to attempt an overtaking move as the dirt on the tyres makes the car difficult to drive for the next corners. The challenges facing the teams and drivers at the Hungaroring are a complete contrast to the Nurburgring.

Tyres could be a lottery

Pirelli will bring the medium and soft compounds – the same nomination as last year. Importantly, the construction of the tyres has changed, with the 2012 structure matched with the 2013 compounds.

The new construction was successfully tested at Silverstone last week during the young driver test. All teams apart from Mercedes – the German team was banned from testing after an illegal tyre test earlier in the season – will have benefitted from the opportunity to adapt the set-up of their cars to best suit the new tyres.

With temperatures expected to reach 40c over the weekend the tyres will come under punishment. Lateral energy will be low around the track – slow twisty track – so tyre performance rather than durability will be the limiting factor.

Overtaking is notoriously difficult, so teams will look to gain an edge through tyre and race strategy to gain track position. The combination of soft and medium tyres will provide a number of chances to employ a number of mixed strategies.

Start on the front two rows of the grid

It is no coincidence that the Hungaroring track averages just 17.48 overtakes per race. Because of the infrequent use of the track, it takes more cars running through the track until a clean line emerges. However, because there is only one clear line around the narrow circuit, a lot of dirt, dust and marbles accumulate off the racing line, making the problem of overtaking even harder – meaning a good qualifying performance is vital.

Another indicator of the difficulty in overtaking in Hungary is that 97% of the last 23 Grand Prix have been won by a driver starting on the front two rows on the grid – the only exception was Jenson Button’s victory in 2006 when he won from 14th.

Solid correlation between qualifying & finishing position

We have already proved there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same model we have examined the last ten Hungarian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Hungaroring as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a strong 0.64 correlation between qualifying and race position at the Hungaroring. Interestingly, the correlation is amongst the strongest so far this season.

A good 70% of races correlate, with just three GP’s having a poor correlation – 2006 (0.21), 2009 (0.46) and 2010 (0.45). Interestingly the worst correlation in 2006 was due to variable weather. This correlation proves that qualifying at the Hungarian GP provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

47% of pole sitters have gone on to win the Hungarian GP in the last 23 GPs, proving that pole position gives you a chance but not a certain victory around the Hungaroring.

Click here to see the latest Hungarian Grand Prix odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

*Odds subject to change

Aldo favourite ahead of bout

By Michael Gales Jul 26, 2013

UFC 163 comes from the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro on August 3rd. The main event sees Jose Aldo defend his UFC Flyweight title on home soil against Chan Sung-Jung. Aldo is the big favourite with Pinnacle Sports but will need to be aware of Chan’s impressive submissions.

Aldo huge favourite to defend title against Sung-Jung

UFC Featherweight champion Jose ‘Junior’ Aldo is the heavy 1.144* favourite to defend his title against Chan ‘Korean Zombie’ Sung-Jung at UFC 163.

Brazilian Aldo was scheduled to fight lightweight Anthony Pettis before the latter pulled out due to a knee injury and was replaced by Sung-Jung. The champion will defend his title for the seventh time as he looks to extend his fantastic record of 22-1-0 and is currently on a 15 fight-winning streak.

Sung-Jung (13-3-0) enters the octagon as a 6.650* underdog, but has won his last three fights and has plenty of reasons to believe he can upset the odds in Brazil. Aldo has the advantage on the feet, but the challenger can rival him on the mat and is a dangerous submission fighter.

Both pugilists have an orthodox stance, and stand at 5’7 but the challenger will hold a two-inch reach advantage when they meet in the octagon.

Champion holds the striking advantage

Aldo has 13 KO wins (59%) in his career and is renowned as a ferocious striker who combines powerful punches, kicks and knees. His power and speed is phenomenal; the 45% accuracy and 3.46 strikes per minute make him one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA.

The ‘Korean Zombie’ may not be as powerful as Aldo, but uses awkward angles and creative timing to utilize his long reach, which has seen him KO 23% (3) of his victims in the past. Always a busy fighter – 4.61 strikes landed per minute – he has accuracy (43%) to match, while his ability to choose the right option in pressure situations is an asset as he vies for the title.

‘Junior’ absorbs just 1.91 strikes per minute and has a 73% defence compared to Sung-Jung who is tagged 3.77 times and has a weaker 64% defence – he has also been knocked out once in his career.

Expect Aldo to dictate the pace from the opening bell and keep the momentum rolling throughout.

Jung ready to clinch title

Aldo & Sung-Jung Fight Statistics

Striking

Aldo

Sung-Jung

Strikes landed per/min

3.46

4.61

Striking accuracy

45%

43%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.91

3.77

Defense

73%

64%

Grappling

Aldo

Sung-Jung

Takedown average/15min

0.63

1.57

Takedown accuracy

60%

80%

Takedown defence

92%

100%

Submission average/15min

0.1

1.26

Jung’s strongest chance of dictating the fight is in the clinch. He may not be known for his wrestling, but will look to get close to Aldo and implement a takedown – 83% takedown accuracy at an average of 1.57 takedowns per three rounds. The challenger showed his class in the clinch against Dustin Poirier by utilizing knees and elbows to set up his takedowns on his way to a win.

Aldo would prefer to be on his feet and will attempt to stand at a striking distance. However, he is comfortable in the clinch due to his Muay Thai background. Most importantly though, Aldo knows how to avoid trouble in the clinch and turn the fight back in his favour.

Ground battle could be key

At 26 Aldo is not going to turn into a submission specialist – he has two submission career wins and his sole defeat came when he tapped out. However, when Aldo finds himself on the ground he nullifies his opponent’s attacks.

Sung-Jung is as dynamic on the ground – averages 1.26 submission attempts every three minutes – as he is on his feet. He has submitted eight opponents with a range of attacks and it’s this diversity, which makes him a dangerous opponent on the mat.

Aldo will look to minimize the damage done on the mat and return to his feet as soon as possible, while Sung-Jung is likely to be the more aggressive.

Final thoughts

‘Junior’ will look to move in and out of range with a succession of striking combinations, while the challenger will aim to frustrate the champion and implement an intelligent game that utilizes his long reach to set up the clinch.

How Sung-Jung reacts to pressure from Aldo could determine the outcome. If he is goaded into a slugfest he will struggle but if he can keep calm and wait for a clinch and subsequent takedown, he has the ability on the ground to upset the odds and leave as the new UFC Featherweight champion.

Click here to see the latest UFC 163 odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

*Odds subject to change

понедельник, 22 июля 2013 г.

How to gain an edge on preseason soccer friendlies

By Michael Gales Jul 19, 2013

Preseason soccer friendlies provide a unique opportunity for betting due to a lack of available information regarding the fixtures. By exploiting this – and the surprising results – bettors can gain an edge over the oddsmaker.

Each year before the start of the soccer season, teams across the world play a number of preseason friendlies. Since the sport’s globalisation, teams not only play games to ready the squad for the upcoming season, but also embark on commercial trips around the globe.

This season Manchester United and Manchester City lost their opening pre-season games against Singha All Stars and SuperSport United respectively, while Celtic were defeated in all four pre-season games on a tour of Germany.

These results would be inconceivable in competitive football, so what factors conspire to produce such unthinkable outcomes?

Understanding these factors holds the key to betting successfully on preseason soccer friendlies, and by being more informed on these influences than the oddsmaker, the bettor has the potential to make a profit.

Teams Motivation – Commercial, fitness or tactical?

When considering betting on preseason soccer friendlies it is vital to understand both teams’ motivational factors.

Historically teams played friendlies for the sole purpose of gaining fitness and gelling a team in preparation for the upcoming season. However, there has been a trend over the past decade that has seen top European teams embark on preseason tours for commercial reasons.

On the pitch teams are focused on fitness and not winning, which is evident with so many shock results. It is a chance for the manager – who may be new – to get across his football philosophy and have a look at youth and fringe players. Star players rarely play more than 45 minutes.

With big European teams not fielding a full strength side, and playing with less intensity, it becomes easier for the ‘minnow’ opposition, and the likelihood for an upset increases. In addition, a number of friendlies will involve teams already playing competitively in their domestic leagues, meaning the squad is fully fit and playing regularly together, which again levels the playing field.

These smaller teams also have very different motivational factors. They have a chance to beat a European giant, which will not only look impressive in their history but also help to attract new local fans.

Player Motivation – Differs greatly game-to-game

Another aspect to consider is how interested players are in friendly games. This will differ for each individual player, and can be separated by early pre-season friendlies – commercial tours, and minnow fixtures etc. – and more competitive games just before the start of the season.

Early preseason games

Professional players can earn astronomical wages that are bumped up by a number of bonuses written into their contracts – goal, appearance and season performance bonuses.

However, these do not apply to friendlies, so are the big players as motivated to perform well when they are playing against a local club in Indonesia? Also a number of mega stars will be contracted to play at least 20 minutes in certain games, will they be inspired to perform well when playing in front of a small crowd?

With footballers travelling large distances to participate in friendlies overseas they need to acclimatise to conditions, where the temperature can be very hot. In addition to increased fatigue and lapses in concentration, players who travel across time zones are prone to injury and illness.

Thomas Reilly suggests when travelling large distances, training should be light for the first few days in a new time zone – Wayne Rooney was injured in his first training session with United the same day he landed in Thailand, resulting in him potentially missing the start of the season.

Opposition players’ mentality will be very different as they relish a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to play against ‘giants’ of the game.

Take the friendly between Bournemouth and Real Madrid, what motivation do the Los Blancos players have to play an English Championship team? However, the Cherries players have an opportunity to play against Ronaldo etc. and put themselves in the shop window.

Late preseason games

There is an evident shift in motivation when the preseason friendlies get closer to the start of the season and the opposition’s strength increases. With fitness levels now raised, team fixtures intensify as the manager looks to fine-tune tactics and match sharpness ahead of the seasons start. Sponsors, broadcast on TV, run events such as the Emirates Cup and the Amsterdam Tournament and trophies are awarded to the winners.

These games are also a chance for first team and fringe players to show their manager they deserve a place, gain an understanding and arrive in good form for the upcoming season.

Be aware of the rules

When betting on friendlies it is important to research the rules, as they are prone to changing. Unlimited substitutions, which allow teams to play younger, less experienced, players, and games with no cards or stoppage time are frequently implemented.

These may seem like subtle changes, but cards and substitutions impact the dynamic of the game, so understanding how the rules changes affect the game can be the difference between winning and losing a bet.

Final Thoughts

With teams playing games against clubs they wouldn’t usually play, more often than not there is no data on previous encounters, so it is difficult to use form or translate past performances against similar sides because they’re so detached.

With so many factors to consider such as the motivation of players, vested interests of teams and changes in rules, coupled with a distinct lack of historic data, betting on pre-season soccer friendlies offers the bettor an opportunity to earn an edge over the bookmaker by being more informed.

Click here to see the latest preseason friendly game odds

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.

*Odds subject to change

четверг, 18 июля 2013 г.

Can Johnson defend Flyweight title?

By Michael Gales Jul 17, 2013

UFC on Fox 8 comes from the Key Arena in Seattle Washington on July 27th. The main event sees Demetrious Johnson defend his flyweight title against John Moraga. Johnson is the huge favourite at Pinnacle Sports, but can Moraga use his grappling advantage to cause an upset?

Johnson heavy favourite to defend title

Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson 1.239* is the heavy favourite to defend his flyweight title against challenger John Moraga 4.600* at UFC on Fox 8 on July 27th.

‘Mighty Mouse’ has a 17-2-1 MMA record compared to Moraga who holds a 13-1 record. Moraga’s streak includes a seven-fight winning streak, and though he has won both of his MMA championship fights in the past, neither have were in the UFC code.

The pair were scheduled to fight earlier in April at The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale, but Johnson was forced out through injury. With only three months since the injury, will Johnson have recuperated in time?

Johnson has won three fights in succession after drawing with Ian McCall at UFC on FX and will look to defend his title for a second time.

During his last fight the champion overcame being dropped twice by Dodson and gradually took control of the fight winning a unanimous decision.

Moraga inflicted a fourth career defeat onto Chris Cariaso via submission the last time he ventured into the octagon at UFC 155 in December 2012, and his only defeat came against Dodson back in December 2010.

Moraga will look to use size advantage

Moraga is a big underdog for the fight despite his excellent MMA record to date and holding a height and reach advantage over the champion.

Both orthodox pugilists will enter the octagon around the 125lbs weight limit, but the challenger is 3 inches taller (5 6) and has a one-inch reach advantage (67).

How Morago uses his physical advantage to combat the speed of Johnson could be key to him upsetting the odds and claiming the UFC flyweight title.

Neither fighter has suffered a KO loss

With just three defeats between the two fighters, neither man has suffered defeat by KO or submission.

Stylistically, Johnson has an approach similar to Frankie Edgar. He is fast, can strike, get out, and snag takedowns when necessary.

Johnson has improved his striking in recent times and lands on average 3.39 strikes per minute. The champion isn’t renowned for his KO power (17% of wins by KO) but uses his striking ability to set up takedowns.

Moraga has decent stand up ability and throws on average 4 strikes per minute but could find it tough to get through the excellent defence of Johnson who avoids 66% of opponent’s strikes.

Battle of the mat key

Moraga’s specialises in wrestling and submissions. The challenger has a 100% takedown accuracy and averages 2.01 takedowns every 15 minutes, while the champion has a 61% grappling defence and is notoriously difficult to takedown.

Johnson & Moraga Fight Statistics

Striking

Johnson

Moraga

Strikes landed per/min

3.39

4.01

Striking accuracy

50%

44%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.97

3.68

Defense

66%

67%

Grappling

Johnson

Moraga

Takedown average/15min

3.21

2.01

Takedown accuracy

49%

100%

Takedown defence

61%

86%

Submission average/15min

0.08

Johnson has showcased his wrestling ability both offensively and defensively since he joined the UFC. ‘Mighty Mouse’ averages 3.21 takedowns every 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 49%. However he will need to improve the accuracy as Moraga repels 86% of his opponent’s grapples.

Johnson is more effective on his feet, but if the fight does hit the ground he can hold his own. He has been involved in some quality grappling exchanges against the elite flyweights and bantamweights over recent years and has six submission victories (35% of his victories) to his name.

Moraga is a submission specialist and has won 46% of his fights by making his opponent tap out and averages one submission attempt every three rounds.

Experience & fitness could prove vital in later rounds

Five rounds are scheduled so experience and fitness could decide the outcome of this fight.

Despite being three-years younger than the challenger, 26-year-old Johnson has experience fighting past the third round on four occasions, compared to Moraga who has never been involved in the championship rounds.

Johnson also has tremendous cardio, which allows him to fight at a ferocious pace for the distance of the bout. The champion has won 47% of fights on the judge’s scorecard, while Moraga has claimed five wins at the final bell but is untested in the championship rounds.

It is worth noting that Moraga has finished 71% of his last seven fights and both of his UFC fights, which explains why his average fight time (07:29) is more than ten minutes less than Johnson’s.

Click here for the best UFC on Fox 8 Johnson vs. Moraga odds

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter..

*Odds subject to change

понедельник, 15 июля 2013 г.

Take on our Season Points Totals

By Pinnacle Sports Jul 10, 2013

Did you know that we recently posted season points totals for the 2013/14 English Premier League? It seems that bettors don’t always know they are up and the market can sit, unloved, until the season starts. This is a bit of a shame as we see posting Season Points so early in the summer as a real challenge and one that we would love more bettors to take on. Read on to find out why.

If you aren’t familiar with this market, the numbers show how many points we expect each team to end up with at the end of the season, so it’s effectively a projected league table. If you think one team is likely to earn more points than we have posted, bet the Over. If you think a team will do worse over the course of the campaign than we have posted, bet the Under. It really is that simple, so check out the latest season point totals here.

We will also offer markets on two-team match-ups for who will finish higher in the coming weeks, so keep your eyes peeled.

2013/14 EPL Season Points
Opening Over/Under Total

Team

Opening Points

Chelsea

81.5

Manchester City

81.5

Manchester United

80.5

Arsenal

80.5

Liverpool

72.5

Tottenham Hotspur

69.5

Everton

52.5

Southampton

47.5

Newcastle United

46.5

Aston Villa

45.5

West Bromwich Albion

43.5

Swansea City

42.5

Fulham

41.5

West Ham United

40.5

Sunderland

39.5

Cardiff

38.5

Stoke City

38.5

Norwich City

35.5

Hull

32.5

Crystal Palace

29.5

24/06/2012

This article will hopefully serve as a little self-promotion, highlighting that the EPL Season Points Totals are there and that we obviously want you to bet them. There’s no point in putting in the work to create the numbers if nobody knows they are there, right?

Reason to bet EPL season totals

There are compelling reasons why you might want to bet EPL Season Totals:

1) They open at 4% margins and a $250 limit. The more attention they get, the higher the limits go and the lower the margins get. If there is enough fan interest, limits could eventually reach $10,000 per bet, at 2% margins – which is razor sharp.

2) The numbers were posted on June 24th, well before the transfer markets really kick into gear. This means there is huge value to be had simply by following the transfer sagas, and making bets based on whether or not a team get better or worse. For example any bettors that played the over on Manchester United last season anticipating Robin Van Persie’s transfer will have been sitting pretty. In this regard, finding reliable sources of transfer news on Twitter can prove particularly valuable.

3) The numbers are what we would call ‘soft’ because the uncertainty that the transfer equations create. Perhaps even more important than players moving from place to place is the manager merry-go-round – for example how will Jose Mourinho, David Moyes, and Roberto Martinez change their new clubs? How long will these plans take to come to fruition?

4) Do you follow one of the promoted teams – Hull, Crystal Palace or Cardiff (who are particularly interesting as they make their debut in the EPL)? Then you may know more about how they will perform in the Premier League than the rest of the world, and there is probably value in betting their projected number.

5) This is the most important one – this market is one of the most challenging for a soccer trader. We pride ourselves on being the sharpest oddsmakers around, so it is regarded as something of a challenge to our skills.

If you are prepared to take on that challenge, now is the right time to bet EPL Season Points Totals, with so many of the summer transfer sagas yet to unfold, and clear pictures of the game plans of new managers yet to emerge.

So we challenge you to bet our season points totals… see if you can get one over on the best EPL traders around.

Regards,

The Pinnacle Soccer Department

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change

Live Q&A with Head of Sportsbook

Our Head of Sportsbook will be taking over the @PinnacleSports Twitter account for a one-hour Q&A session on August 6th at 10am PDT/6pm BST, fielding questions from our followers. This is the first time the company has engaged its customers on this level and made ourselves this accessible. It’s another great reason to start following @PinnacleSports.

Pinnacle Sports has traditionally played its cards close to its chest, so this is a significant step forward for the company, and a great opportunity for players to quiz the Head of Sportsbook in the following areas:

Trading operations & traders

Setting & managing markets

Sports betting in general

Sports betting advice

Sports betting theory

… anything and everything that falls under his specific sphere of influence as the Head of Sportsbook.

Since the launch of the Twitter account in December 2012, there have been a lot of improvements based upon customer feedback, which has improved our followers’ experience. In fact, it’s been so positive that Pinnacle Sports is now ready to take this big step in the kind of interaction only social media can offer.

A Q&A session with the man who the bettors are effectively trying to beat, was the best way to continue implementing our pledge to engage with, as well as educate, bettors. After all, who better to inform you about sports betting than the top man at the best sportsbook in the world?

Through your questions, the Head of Sportsbook – direct, tactical and knowledgeable – will provide you with a close-up look at the goings on in our sportsbook like you’ve never seen before.

It isn’t a fluke that this is happening in the days before the big four domestic leagues get under way; it seemed like a great opportunity to get you ready for the season while getting you better acquainted with the @PinnacleSports Twitter account.

While questions will be fielded live on Twitter, that’s not the only way you can ask. Send your questions in advance to content@pinnaclesports.com and include your Twitter handle, or send a tweet that includes #AskPinnacle. While the team at Pinnacle Sports cannot guarantee to answer everyone, it will do its best.

There will be more information regarding #AskPinnacle in the weeks to come, so keep your eyes on @PinnacleSports, www.pinnaclesports.com and your inbox.

We look forward to seeing you on Twitter,

Gary Wise

Manager of Social Media

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

пятница, 12 июля 2013 г.

The British Open by numbers: 19 betting trends

The British Open by numbers: 19 betting trends

By Michael Gales Jul 12, 2013

The British Open is the only Major to be held on a links course – notoriously difficult – meaning playing experience is key to winning the oldest major. Read more about this and 18 other British Open trends before betting on the 2013 winner.

Because of the inclement weather, tight course layout and unique nature, Links golf is a challenge for any golfer. This article looks at 19 British Open winner trends to help the bettor gauge what it takes to win the competition, so they can narrow down the field before picking a winner.

Curse of entering Open on a win

No Scottish Open or John Deere Classic winner has won the British Open the following week since 1993. Notable Scottish Open and John Deere Classic winners in recent times include Luke Donald, Martin Kaymer, Graeme McDowell, Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson but none have secured the British Open in the same year.

Only Ben Curtis has won on debut since 1975

Ben Curtis is the only player to win on debut in the British Open since 1975 when he claimed his maiden major win at Royal St George’s in 2003. Eight others have won on debut, but none at Muirfield. This could rule out any debutants before a ball has been hit.

Number of Aces at 7th hole at Muirfield since 1981

With 156 players playing at least two rounds at Muirfield and a minimum of 70 players making the cut there will be at least 1808 opportunities for someone to score an ace.

There have been two-recorded hole in ones at the 7th hole par 3 at Muirfield, the first in 1987 by Billy Andrade and the second by Paul McGinley in 1992.

British winners in 20 years

There have been only two British winners of the Claret Jug in the past 20 years. Scotland’s Paul Lawrie won at Carnoustie in 1999, while Darren Clarke surprised golf by winning his first major at 42 at Royal St George’s in 2011.

*Padraig Harrington won back-to-back British Open title in 2007 & 2008 but is from the Republic of Ireland, which is not classed as part of Britain.

Repeat winners in last two decades

Three players since 1993 have won the British Open more than once. Tiger Woods claimed the title on three occasions in 2000, 2005 & 2006, Padraig Harrington won back-to-back titles in 2007 & 2008, while last years winner Ernie Els added the 2012 title to his previous win in 2002.

British Open’s decided by a playoff

Seven British Opens – nearly 1 in 3 – have been decided by a playoff in the past 20 majors on the British Isles. The last came in 2009 when Stuart Cink beat veteran Tom Watson.

Past British Open experience key

Six of the last seven British Open winners have played in the British Open more than ten times previously. The winner has participated on average in 8.95 British Opens previously.

Interestingly, it doesn’t appear to matter how well a player has done in the tournament, just so long as they have experience of links golf under the pressure of a major.

years as a pro before winning Claret Jug

Professional experience is key. Just one – Ben Curtis in 2003 – of the last ten winners didn’t have at least eight years experience as a professional before winning. To battle through four rounds of a major on a links course is a tough physical and mental challenge, which can test the concentration of every competitor as the12 years average as a pro before winning suggests.

15%

Winners had won either Masters or US Open in same year

Interestingly winning a major the same year is not necessarily a precursor for success in the British Open. Just 15% of winners in the past 20 years have claimed either the Masters title or the US Open prior to the British Open.

Major tournaments since Woods last won

Tiger Woods has returned to World No. 1 but his search for his 15th major success continues after 16 major tournaments since his last win at the US Open in 2008.

In those 16 major appearances Woods has finished on average 12th, however he has secured eight top 10 finishes. Woods’ best performance at Muirfield is 28th in 2002.

Only 1 repeat major winner since 2009

Remarkably since the domination of Tiger Woods from 2001-2008, there have been 18 different major winners, with only Rory McIlroy – 2011 US Open & 2012 PGA Championship – winning more than one major.

Most appearances before winning

After winning in his 19th appearance at the 2011 British Open Darren Clarke was crowned the player with the most appearances before winning the Claret Jug.

Phil Mickelson has won 4 major championships but has struggled historically – Just two top 10 finishes- at the British Open. In his 19th appearance could he equal Clarke’s record?

Average age of last five winners

The average age of the winner further enhances the trend that a winner needs experience to claim the British Open. The average age of the winner over the last five years is 37, which has increased from 33 over the past 20 years. The youngest winner was Tiger Woods at 24 in 2000, while the two oldest were the last two – Darren Clarke and Ernie Els – at 42.

45%

Winners in last 20 years have won 1st major at British Open

Nearly half of all British Open winners have won their first major at the British Open. The last was Darren Clarke in 2011, before Louis Oosthuizen and Stewart Cink in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Could Lee Westwood, Luke Donald or Rickie Fowler claim their first major win this year at Muirfield?

64%

Course experience key

The British Open rotates between venues yearly, so is a player more likely to win the British Open if they have played the course before?

64% of winners over the last 15 years – the 2006 Open is discounted as the course had last been used in 1967 – have played the course at least once before winning, showing a clear trend between course experience and winning.

85%

Form a key indicator

Performance by winner before British Open

Year

Masters

US Open

Tour Win

2012

DNP

2011

DNP

2010

Cut

2009

Cut

2008

2007

Cut

2006

Cut

2005

2004

Cut

2003

DNP

2002

2001

2000

1999

DNP

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

Cut

1993

Cut

Another clear trend from the last two decades is that success earlier in the season is vital. 85% of the last 20 winners have either won at least one PGA or European Tour event or finished in the top 10 of either the Masters or the US Open prior to arriving at the British Open.

276

Average winning score since 1993

275.5 is the average winning score since 1993, which works out to a score of 68.8 per round. The average winning score at Muirfield over the past 5 British Open events is 8.4 under par (275.6).

300

The Return of big priced winners

Another trend to consider when selecting a British Open winner is the recurrence of big priced winners. With the unpredictable nature of links golf huge winners have been seen in the past decade. Recent big priced winners include Darren Clarke at 125/1, Louis Oosthuizen in 2010 at 200/1 and Ben Crane at a mammoth 300/1. Read here about the role of luck in major championships wins.

Long challenge for players at Muirfield

The Muirfield course has been extended to 7192 yards and will now play as the sixth longest course in the last 20 years at the British Open. This will help the longer hitters, however the rough is penal, and like any links course, will cause problems for errant shots. Winners will need to showcase their power, with precision, as well as a fair share of luck.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change

What are Parlays, Accumulators or Combi Bets?

By Jack Ratcliffe Jul 11, 2013

Parlays, accumulators and combi-bets allow you to bet on multiple outcomes for different events, multiplying the potential rewards. With parlays now starting as low as $99 at Pinnacle, we look at how parlays can pay off, and what their drawbacks are.

How parlays, accumulators and combo bets work

When you make a parlay bet (also known as an accumulators or combo bet), you’re actually placing multiple bets on different events. For example, a traditional soccer accumulator might look like this:

Selection 1: Arsenal (Handicap -1 and -1.5) 1.794

Selection 2: Chelsea (Handicap -1.5 and -2 ) 1.877

Selection 3: Tottenham Hotspur (Handicap -0.5 and -1) 2.050

The above selection shows that a bet has been placed on Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur to win (with a handicap) against their rivals on the 17th of August.

If all three of those teams’ won (and covered the handicap), the payout would be the three sets of odds multiplied together.

1.794 x 1.877 x 2.050 = 6.903

Therefore if you placed a 100 bet on this accumulator, you would get back 690.30 – 590.30 profit plus your 100 stake. If you simply bet on these three outcomes individually, you would win 79.40, 87.70 and 105, for a total of 272.20.

As you can see, even simple accumulators can win you more. With increased winnings comes increased risk, however. Should any of those three selections be incorrect, you won’t win anything. It’s considered a good tactic with accumulators to have “anchors”, selections where you feel more strongly about the outcome. You can then use these to build bigger winnings using slightly longer-odds bets.

As the above example was a handicap bet, it’s important to take note of what happens when an outcome is a “push”, which means after the handicap is taken into account the game is a tie. For this circumstance, that selection is removed from the parlay, the winnings are recalculated and that part of the stake is returned to you.

Parlays at Pinnacle Sports

The number of selections in parlays can range in size from just two selections up to eight, which means it’s possible to get some very large wins from them. Parlays at Pinnacle Sports now start from $99, with limits going up to as high as $10,000.

The maximum bet you can place on a parlay is determined by the limits for the markets involved. It’s generally correct to assume that parlay limits match those of the lowest limit in a market, so if two of you selections were $10,000 limits and one was $100, it’s likely to be closed to $100. The maximum win on a parlay for one calendar day is $250,000.

Parlays can also be placed between different leagues and sports, so you can bet on Arsenal, the New York Knicks and Anderson Silva in the UFC all on one slip.

For further information on parlays at Pinnacle Sports, please visit our Parlay Rules section here.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

Win more on eSports with parlays? Parlays eXplained

By Jack Ratcliffe Jul 11, 2013

You can now combine many eSports selections in one bet with Pinnacle Sports’ parlays option, potentially multiplying your winnings. So how exactly do parlays and accumulators work, how much can they pay out what are their drawbacks?

How parlays, accumulators and combo bets work

When you make a parlay bet (also known as an accumulator or combo bet), you’re actually combining several individual bets on different events. To win, however, all of your bets must be successful, with the payout the combination of the odds of each of the component bets.

Importantly, this is different to traditional betting, where you bet each event individually, and you win even if your other bets lose.

For example, an eSports accumulator might look like this:

Selection 1: StarCraft 2: Seed 1.775

Selection 2: StarCraft 2: Roro 1.364

Selection 3: DotA 2: NaVi 1.709

The above selection shows that a bet has been placed on Seed, Roro and NaVi to beat their opponents,

If all three of these won, the payout would be the three sets of odds multiplied together:

1.775 x 1.364 x 1.709 = 4.138

Therefore if you placed a 100 bet on this accumulator, you would get back 413.80: 313.80 profit plus your 100 stake.

If you simply bet 100 on each of these three outcomes (like a traditional bet), you would have won 77.50, 36.40 and 70.90, for a total profit of 184.80 (from a stake of 300).

As you can see, even simple accumulators can win you more. With increased winnings comes increased risk, however. Should any of those three selections be incorrect, you won’t win anything.

This is why it’s considered a good tactic with accumulators to have “anchors”, selections where you feel more strongly about the outcome. You can then use these to build bigger winnings using slightly longer-odds bets.

Parlays at Pinnacle Sports

The number of selections in parlays can range in size from just two selections up to eight, which means it’s possible to get some very large wins from them.

Parlays at Pinnacle Sports now start from $99, with limits going up to as high as the maximum eSports bet. This changes depending on the events, however, with the limits clearing displayed on the website.

With an increasing number of eSports leagues and competitions offered at Pinnacle Sports you can now parlays across DotA, StarCraft and League of Legends, all on one slip or if you prefer combine with other regular sports bets.

For further information on parlays at Pinnacle Sports, please visit our Parlay Rules section here.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

четверг, 11 июля 2013 г.

Learn more about Argentine Primera Divisin betting

Learn more about Argentine Primera Divisin betting

By Charlie Rowing Jul 10, 2013

Often revered as one of the elite soccer nations, Argentina is home to one of the world’s most intriguing domestic soccer leagues. Read on to learn why betting on the Primera Divisin could be for you.

The world’s greatest?

When you think of Argentina you immediately think of Diego Maradona and Lionel Messi, both of whom arguably have claim to being the greatest player ever. However, despite both players starting their careers in Argentina, it’s their exploits in Europe for which they are best known.

The Argentine Primera Divisin shouldn’t languish in the shadows of these icons, however, as it’s home to some of the biggest clubs in the world, including Boca Juniors and River Plate. Many well-known stars such as Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain and Angel Di Maria built their reputation in their homeland before moving abroad to sign for big European clubs.

One way to get an edge in the Primera Divisin is to identify the current crop of key players. The current status of these players – injury, suspension, form etc. – should influence the way you bet on their team.

Understanding the complex Argentine Primera Divisin format

The league is made up of 20 teams; which is split up into two tournaments – The Torneo Inicial and the Torneo Final. Both competitions last 19 games, with the conclusion culminating in the Torneo Inicial and Torneo Final winners playing in the Superfinal, to determine the Super Champions.

Perhaps the most complicated aspect of the Primera Divisin is relegation, as it is based on an averaging system. At the end of each season, the three teams with the worst three-year averages are relegated to the Primera B.

For example at the end of the 2012-13 season, Independiente were relegated even though they finished 18th in the Torneo Inical and 12th in the Torneo Final. This is because they had accumulated a total of 129 points from 114 games played in the past three seasons, which gave them an average of 1.132, which was the second-worst in the league.

This means that bettors may need to do more extensive research on fixtures, to find out which teams are battling relegation during the season. As it may not be abundantly clear just by looking at the table.

The threat of relegation for a team can greatly influence betting with regards to a team’s motivation and form, for example teams often go on good runs towards the latter stages of seasons when fighting the drop.

There are 5 places up for grabs in the Copa Libertadores (the South American equivalent of the Champions League). The Primera Divisin super champion joins the losing finalist, as well as the Copa Argentina champion in the second stage. The final place goes to the best Argentinian placed team in the Copa Sudamericana.

The league runs from August until the following June. Teams involved in the latter stages of the Copa Libertadores, which ends in July and teams playing in the early stages of the Copa Sudamerica, which starts in July, play outside their domestic season.

Betting on the Argentine Primera Divisin

Argentine Primera Divisin markets include the basic soccer bet types: 1x2s, handicaps and totals.

1x2s

This is the most common bet type. You simply bet on whether a team will win, lose or draw a match.

For example, imagine these are the odds for a Primera Divisin match between Velez Sarsfield (2.800) and Newell’s Old Boys (2.960) with the draw at 3.030.

If Velez won the match and you staked 10 on them to win, you would have won 28 – although that would include your initial 10 stake. Therefore your profit would be 18. You would win nothing if the result ended in a defeat or draw for Velez.

If the outcome had been a draw then a 10 bet would have returned you 30.30 (20.30 profit and your 10 stake).

Handicaps

Handicaps are useful when one team is heavily favoured over the other team, as you can bet on who will win a match, with a set number of goals taken off the favourite’s score.

Let’s say the handicap for Velez Sarsfield is -1 (2.020) and Newell’s Old Boys is + 1 (1.901).

If the result was 2-0 to Velez, then a bet on them would win as 2-0 covers the -1 handicap.

If the result was a draw, or a loss for Velez then a bet on Newell’s would win as they would cover their +1 handicap.

If the result was a 1-0 win for Velez then bets for both Velez and Newell’s would see money returned, as both sides would have drawn 0-0 with handicaps applied.

Totals

The Totals market sees the bettor predict whether the total number of goals for a match will be over or under a set amount.

Imagine the total goal mark for Velez Sarsfield vs Newell’s Old Boys is set at Over 2 and 2.5 (1.893) and Under 2 and 2.5 (2.010).

If you bet 10 on the game to be Over 2 and 2.5 goals – and the result was 2-1 (a total of three goals) you would have a return of 18.93 (10.93 profit), while you would have won nothing if you had bet on the goals total to be Under 2 and 2.5

Click here to read more about Basic Bet Types.

Argentine Primera Divisin betting tip – draw frequency

It is worth noting that draw occurrence in this league is extremely high, the 2012-13 Argentine Primera Divisin season saw 34% of games in the Torneo Inicial finish in a draw, and 35% in the Torneo Final. A possible reason for such a high number of draws is due to the league’s relegation system, with teams potentially becoming cagier due to the three-year averages that are in place.

There were a higher percentage of draws in the Primera Divisin (total 35%) than in every major European League in the 2012/13 season – La Liga (22%), Serie A (25%), Bundesliga (25%), Premier League (28%) and Ligue 1 (28%).

In fact, over a four-year average the amount of draws in the Primera Divisin was 31% and the four-year average for the European leagues were – La Liga (23%), Serie A (27%), Bundesliga (25%), Premier League (27%) and Ligue 1 (29%).

If you were to bet 10 on every Primera Divisin game finishing in a draw in 2012-13 season you would have made 424 profit.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

EPL trader: Challenge our Season Points Totals

A challenge from our EPL trader: take on our Season Points Totals

By Pinnacle Sports Jul 10, 2013

We will also offer markets on two-team match-ups for who will finish higher in the coming weeks, so keep your eyes peeled.

2013/14 EPL Season Points Market (Opening Totals 24/06/2013)

Team

Opening Points

Chelsea

81.5

Manchester City

81.5

Manchester United

80.5

Arsenal

80.5

Liverpool

72.5

Tottenham Hotspur

69.5

Everton

52.5

Southampton

47.5

Newcastle United

46.5

Aston Villa

45.5

West Bromwich Albion

43.5

Swansea City

42.5

Fulham

41.5

West Ham United

40.5

Sunderland

39.5

Cardiff

38.5

Stoke City

38.5

Norwich City

35.5

Hull

32.5

Crystal Palace

29.5

Reason to bet EPL season totals

There are compelling reasons why you might want to bet EPL Season Totals:

So we challenge you to bet our season points totals… see if you can get one over on the best EPL traders around.

Regards,

The Pinnacle Soccer Department

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

Champions League and Europa League Treble: Differdange have the pedigree

Differdange of Luxembourg

It's second-leg time in first round qualifying for Europe's top club competitions; Christian Crowther tries his hand at another treble...

Back FC Shirak to win both halves away to Tre Penne @ 1.910/11 (Champions League, 20:00)
Armenia's finest have this tie sewn up after overpowering their San Marinese opponents 3-0 in the away leg courtesy of an Ismael Fofana hat-trick. However, far from being content with their domineering performance, the fact that Shirak coach Vardan Bichakhchyan was still critical of his players shows that he will not be taking the second leg lightly. The first leg was so one-sided that Tre Penne did not even manage a single attempt on target, while the Armenian champions fired in 19 shots, eight of them goal-bound.

Back both teams to Score in TPS v Jeunesse Esch @ 1.9520/21 (Europa League, 17:00)
After recording a famous 2-0 first-leg win over their Finnish opponents, Jeunesse are 90 minutes away from putting Luxembourg on the map by qualifying for the second round. However, shocks don't come easily and Jeunesse will have to expect TPS to throw everything at them in front of their support. The first leg was much more evenly matched than the scoreline suggested with TPS edging the shot count 9-6, leaving Jeunesse coach Daniel Theis thanking his goalkeeper for his heroics. As TPS go chasing the game, it should make for another open encounter.

Back Differdange to beat KF Laci @ 2.111/10 (Europa League, 18:30)
Luxembourger football is riding the crest of as wave after another of the country's sides, Differdange, managed to secure a 1-0 advantage from their first leg in Albania. Now they bring back KF Laci to their own patch and have to be the favourites to advance from this position, after having the best of the first leg as well. Differdange have the pedigree too, having made it through at least one round of qualifying in the past two seasons, facing freshly minted Paris St Germain in the play-off round in 2011/12.

A 5 treble provides a 34.10 profit - please click here for more information on Betfair multiples

Timeform Irish SmartPlays: People the Key to success

Roscommon plays host to racing on Tuesday.

Timeform's Irish team suggest three bets at Roscommon this evening...

Key People (18:25) showed promise when hitting the frame in a couple of maiden hurdles in May and is taken to get off the mark here. Killdunne and Kathleen Frances are just 2 of many others in with a shout. The six-year-old will stay further than two and a half miles in time, and may even flourish when upped in trip, but it is still early days with him and he could take a step forward here for trainer Tom Taaffe.

Courtncatcher (18:55) proved he thrives over this C&D last time and is taken to follow up off 7lb higher. Golden Kite looked almost as good as ever at the course last month while Roving Lad seemed to be on the way back before tipping up at the last over fences latest. The six-year-old has some solid placed form to his name but built on that with a victory over C&D last time, beating Tico by three and three-quarter lengths.

Green Thirty Two had shown precious little before his respectable third at Ballinrobe last time, and the booking of Barry Geraghty is a real eye catcher. However Ice Ice Baby (19:55) hasn't had many tries over hurdles and dropped her biggest hint yet a win may not be far away when second at Wexford 4 days ago and she gets the nod. Andalucia Lady and Super Vic are just two others to consider.

Timeform Irish SmartPlays:
All at Roscommon
Back Key People in the 18:25
Back Courtncatcher in the 18:55
Back Ice Ice Baby in the 19:55

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Pontefract Placepot: Tuesday July 9

Luca Cumani's Silk Sari can secure the Placepot

Pontefract provides the only Flat action on the turf this afternoon and that is where we head for today's crack at the Placepot...

14:30- Sunset Shore didn't need to improve to get off the mark at Bath but she had progressed with each run prior to that and looks sure to give another good account today. Sir Mark Prescott's filly is related to some smart performers and could yet be capable of better; the slight step up in trip to six furlongs looks likely to suit. Scargill probably did well to win over the minimum trip last time and, although this is tougher, his third over C&D in May behind two promising types reads well. He arguably sets the standard here and should be included in the Placepot.

15:00- Plenty have questions to answer in this ten-furlong handicap but Danehill Flyer, a winner at this course last Monday, has a lot in his favour and appeals as a banker proposition. Phil Kirby's charge didn't get home over 14 furlongs on his penultimate start, his free-going style counting against him, but he was an authoritative victor over one and a half miles last time, despite not settling in the early stages, and he is unlikely to be inconvenienced by this further drop in trip.

15:30- Jofranka is an improving type and the most likely winner. She is, however, unproven on the surface and we will take her on with Boxing Shadows and Teetotal. The former doesn't look particularly well treated but he has produced some respectable efforts of late and is suited by a strongly-run five furlongs on fast ground, while the latter shaped as if still in good form when denied the hat-trick at Doncaster last time and should launch a bold bid.

16:00- Gifted Girl is a progressive filly and actually finished in front of Ladys First at Epsom but Richard's Fahey's contender is an ideal Placepot type, looking sure to run her race and finish in the frame. She enters this on the back of a fantastic effort in Group 2 company at Royal Ascot and it is difficult not to see the reliable, consistent Ladys First going close.

16:30- Chester Aristocrat is at the top of his game at present, finishing a good second to Baby Strange at Newcastle last time, and another solid performance looks assured with his trainer in decent form. Head Space has been competitive off much higher marks than this in the past and he shaped as if back to form when finishing a narrow second at Haydock last week. Ruth Carr's five-year-old is also included in the Placepot.

17:00- Fitness is rarely a factor for Godolphin horses on debut and the well-bred Mansoreen is the first horse that we turn to. The Luca Cumani-trained Silk Sari is also bred in the purple and shaped with a fair bit of promise on debut at Kempton, staying on strongly without being knocked about. She should benefit from that experience and should go well.

Selections:
14:30- 2, 4
15:00- 7
15:30- 1, 3
16:00- 5
16:30- 3, 8
17:00- 3, 6
= 16 lines

Did you know that you can bet on the Tote from your Betfair account? Click here for our Tote gateway.

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Summer Football On Betfair: Newells to keep it tight

Maxi Rodriguez celebrates his goal for Newells in the first leg

It may be time for Pimm's on the lawn in Britain, but there is still plenty of football getting played this week. Christian Crowther offers a punt for each weekday...

Monday July 8
Helsingborgs v IFK Goteborg (Betfair Live Video, 18:05)
Incredibly, you have to go way back to 2005 to find the last time that IFK Goteborg managed to beat Helsingborgs in the Swedish Allsvenskan - that's a 14-game hoodoo that the visitors are trying to lift. However, Helsingborgs are not only strong at home this season, winning five of their seven matches, they've also beaten these opponents on their own turf for the past five campaigns.
Recommended Bet: Back Helsingborgs to win @ 1.9210/11

Tuesday July 9
Haiti v Honduras (Betfair Live Video and ESPN, 02:30)
2011 CONCACAF Gold Cup semi-finalists Honduras are the undoubted heavyweights in this opening Group B encounter and represent the favourites to win this group. Having recently drawn with Italy in a friendly and narrowly lost to Spain also, Haiti have to be taken seriously, though World Cup qualifying wins over USA and Jamaica in 2013 make the Hondurans rightful favourites for victory.
Recommended Bet: Back Honduras to win @ 1.75/7

Wednesday July 10
Belize v USA (Betfair Live Video and ESPN, 04:00)
USA's 6-0 warm-up win over Guatemala will have sent the alarm bells ringing through the Belize camp ahead of this one. Despite leaving some of their superstars out of the squad, the Americans should easily overpower a nation ranked 130 in the world. There should be a hatful to be had for the CONCACAF hosts, who have scored four or more twice already this summer.
Recommended Bet: Back USA to score four or more goals @ 2.0621/20

Thursday July 11
Atletico MG v Newells (Betfair Live Video and ESPN, 01:50)
Argentine side Newells Old Boys take a commanding 2-0 lead to protect against their Brazilian neighbours in this Copa Libertadores semi-final second leg. Safe in the knowledge that a draw will see them through to the final, the Argentines will simply be on a mission to keep it tight. Four of their last five matches in this competition have gone under the 2.5 mark and this looks like a strong possibility again.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9620/21

Friday July 12
England Women v Spain Women (BBC Three and British Eurosport, 19:30)
England's women were given a wake-up call ahead of their Euros 2013 opener, in that chastening 4-1 defeat to Sweden. However, a team that had gone 11 games unbeaten while recording eight wins in the build-up to this tournament doesn't become bad overnight. They are undefeated against the Spanish in four previous meetings, drawing twice. England have notched first in their last four matches, including defeat to Sweden, which should stand them in good stead.
Recommended Bet: Back England to score the next (first) goal @ 1.8910/11

Against All Odds: Angels to triumph in Helsingborgs

It's me showing the Helsingborgs players the red card today

Second and third meet in the Swedish Allsvenskan this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that IFK Goteborg can upset the odds and secure a result at Helsingborg in a match that you can see on Betfair Live Video at 18:05.

Helsingborgs have had their momentum checked in recent weeks as they've managed to win just one of their last four games and lost at home last time out to AIK. Prior to that spell they were on a roll with six consecutive wins but they will need to bounce back today.

Roar Hansen is the new man in charge of The Reds for this season and you'd have to conclude that he's done a fine job thus far. Despite recent setbacks, they are third in the table, two points off top spot with two games in hand.

They have won four of their last five at home but I would add a note of caution that their win percentage at Olympia is no better than 50% since around the start of 2012. They also lost to tonight's opponents in their last clash on this ground back in April.

IFK Goteborg have won their last two matches to climb up to second in the table and while they've played a game more than Helsingborgs, they've played one less than leaders Malmo FF. Victory here would see them go top and that should fire the players up even more.

Mikael Stahre's men won at Norrkoping before putting four past Mjallby on home soil a fortnight ago. They've had a rest since then but there is every reason to believe that they can continue their progress.

The Angels have had a bit of an iffy record on the road of late but that victory at Norrkoping means they've now avoided defeat in nine of their last 11 matches in all competitions.

This should be a competitively fought fixture and while Helsingborgs have home advantage, they are too short at odds-on. That's why, at around the 1.9310/11 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Helsingborgs v IFK Goteborg @ 1.9310/11

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 188 pts
Returned: 178.26 pts
P/L – 9.74 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

In-Play Hints: Pasture has the Perfect scenario

Mick Easterby: Trainer of Perfect Pasture.

Timeform assess the possible pace angles for two races on Monday...

Race: 16:00 Ayr - 1m5f Handicap

Pace Forecast: Strongly contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Of those forecasted with a better chance, Forrest Flyer could be the most susceptible, in a race in which competition for the lead looks plentiful: Such a hotly-contested pace as is on the cards here may be to the benefit of Muharrer who tends to come from behind.

Individual Price Hint: Muharrer traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 3 of its last 5 starts: Teenage Idol traded at 10% or less of BSP and 25% or less of BSP on 2 of its last 4 starts.

Race: 18:50 Ripon - 6f Handicap

Pace Forecast: Contested.

Specific Pace Hint: With no shortage of likely pace-forcers, Next Door may need to be ridden further back than in its recent starts: The stronger the pace the better for Perfect Pasture, who looks to have a suitable scenario here.

Individual Price Hint: Therapeutic traded at 10% or less of BSP and 25% or less of BSP twice on 3 of its last 5 starts: Perfect Pasture traded at 10% or less of BSP twice on its last 4 starts.

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

среда, 10 июля 2013 г.

Follow The Money: Girl to prove how Gifted she is at Pontefract

Will Gifted Girl get her head in front at Pontefract today?

Today's Follow The Money selections come from the cards at Pontefract and Wolverhampton...

We start at Wolverhampton and in the 14:45, a Class 5 handicap over 1m 4f, Thorpe has been steadily supported from 6.611/2 in to 4.94/1. Ralph Beckett's gelding has some decent maiden form in the book, most notably when beaten by Libertarian on his seasonal debut by just over 3L. Although he was runner up on his subsequent start to a horse that has failed to frank the form twice subsequently, the money suggests that Thorpe may still prove to be the racing equivalent of "the torpedo" today.

We stay at the Midlands track for the day's lay which comes in the shape of Nickels And Dimes in the 15:15. Having opened in early trading at a shade of odds on, the filly is now available to back at 2.77/4 and there are three distinct reasons to oppose John Gosden's charge; she has been off for 259 days, both runs last year were on turf and with plenty of give to boot and there are a couple of similarly unexposed sorts from the Saeed Bin Suroor stable in opposition today. At the price, this is one we are happy to take on.

Our final mover comes in the Pontefract 16:00 where Gifted Girl has shortened from 3.814/5 in to 3.185/40. A facile Ascot handicap win was followed by an excellent second in a Group 3 fillies event at Epsom on Oaks day and with scope for even more improvement, this is one that shouldn't go unbacked today.

Recommendations

Back Thorpe @ 4.94/1 14:45 Wolverhampton
Lay Nickels And dimes @ 2.8615/8 15:15 Wolverhampton
Back Gifted Girl @ 3.185/40 16:00 Pontefract

Premier League: Tottenham makes sense for Benteke

Christian Benteke has submitted a transfer request to Aston Villa

With the shock news emerging that Christian Benteke has handed in a transfer request at Aston Villa, Christian Crowther assesses the striker's best destination...

It's the news Aston Villa fans were dreading as, little over 10 months into his four-year deal at Villa Park, their star striker Christian Benteke has handed in a transfer request.

There is no doubting that the contract situation leaves the midlands outfit in a strong bargaining position but, in these days of player power, underpinned by greedy agents, Benteke will in all probability be able to force through a move.

The market has already reacted strongly to the announcement, valuing Benteke's chances of remaining at Villa at 11.010/1 and, after the Belgian banged in 19 Premier League goals in his debut season, there is sure to be no shortage of big clubs hovering.

So where should he go? In a World Cup year, many observers would have viewed Benteke's remaining a Villa player for this season at least as his best option, guaranteed a starting role at an improving club.

However, now Benteke has shown his hand in this manner, Paul Lambert is unlikely to be receptive to keeping him in the team. We have already witnessed his breakdown of relations with previous star striker Darren Bent, which has seen the former England striker languishing in the reserves.

It's no surprise to see Chelsea and Tottenham emerge as the early frontrunners to make a play for his services.

Chelsea's failure to land Paris St-Germain-bound Edinson Cavani will certainly stir the rumour pot, but this could be potentially disastrous for the young Belgian.

If he moved to Stamford Bridge then he would be in direct competition with compatriot Romelu Lukaku, Fernando Torres and Demba Ba for one starting spot.

With his playing style so similar to that of fellow countryman Lukaku, they would be in real danger of stifling each other's ambitions to play for Belgium in Brazil next
summer.

However, a move to Tottenham may just be the perfect fit. It's no secret that Spurs have been chasing another striker for over a year now and look like they have finally given up on landing Leandro Damiao.

And with the much lambasted Emmanuel Adebayor supposedly close to agreeing a move to Turkey there could be no better time.

Jermain Defoe should remain to give him competition for a starting role but, given his susceptibility to injury and Andre Villas-Boas' preference to play a proper target man, Benteke could slot in seamlessly at White Hart Lane.

If Spurs do capture him, expect to see their price for a top-four place shrink from 2.789/5 presently.

Princess of Wales's Stakes: Seven declared in Newmarket contest

Wild Coco is an interesting runner for Lady Cecil

Dandino's defection has left a field of seven remaining in Thursday's Princess Of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket...

Marco Botti has opted to take an alternative path with the recent Hardwicke Stakes runner-up but there are a number of good horses left in the field for the Group 2 event over a mile and a half.

They are headed by Mark Johnston's Hardwicke third and Jockey Club Stakes winner Universal, and Lady Cecil's filly Wild Coco, who collected the Park Hill Stakes but has not been seen yet this year.

Two other experienced international campaigners are in the line-up through Godolphin's Cavalryman and the Michael Bell-trained Wigmore Hall.

Ahzeemah, beaten three lengths by Cavalryman on his latest start in the Dubai Gold Cup, also represents Saeed Bin Suroor.

Grandeur is back with Jeremy Noseda after a spell in America while Huxley Stakes winner Danadana completes the field for Luca Cumani.

The other notable absentee is John Gosden's Aiken.

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Scottish Open Fixed Odds Betting: Fichardt a monster price with emphasis on putting

A good week is in prospect for 'top putter' Darren Fichardt

With hot temperatures and low winds forecast for this week's Scottish Open, Mike Norman is expecting another birdie blast from those who will contend at Castle Stuart, and our man is quite sweet on a huge price outsider...

Our slightly different approach last week resulted in a healthy profit thanks to Graeme Storm's terrific third-place finish at the Open de France.

Le Golf National - home of the aforementioned tournament - is definitely a venue where previous course form counts for so much, and Storm was the one player in the field who I said that, other than Martin Kaymer, brought the best course form to the table.

You only need one 126.0n/a shot to place every now and then to keep your betting head well above water, but that's enough about my success as it pales into insignificance compared to Paul Krishnamurty's brilliant 130.0129/1 selection of Jonas Blixt ahead of the Greenbrier Classic. A massive well done Paul.

My approach ahead of this week's Scottish Open couldn't be more different to last week as previous course form means very little if I'm being honest.

Castle Stuart Golf Links has been open for business for just four years, and it has been home of the Scottish Open for just two previous renewals - and one of those was basically a complete wash-out, with what felt like players being able to lift, clean and place their ball to anywhere they liked.

I'm not even going to put much emphasis on 'Links' form either this week. Castle Stuart is a relatively short course (though some holes have been lengthened) with wide fairways, and with the weather set fair for the remainder of the week, then I'm expecting this year's renewal to boil down to basically what the previous two renewals have ended up being - a putting contest.

So with all this in mind, here's my five selections to consider;

Darren Fichardt - 201.0n/a

I'm leading with my biggest-price selection simply because I think Fichardt is easily the most over-priced player I've witnessed for a long time. He may well go on to miss the cut by 10 shots, that's just the chance you take, but why he is priced at 201.0n/a Fixed Odds, and at 280.0279/1 on the Exchange, is a mystery to me.

Anyone who wins a European Tour event - as Fichardt did less than five months ago when landing the Africa Open - has to be respected in the months that follow, and anyone who wins and then backs it up with a second-place finish deserves even closer inspection.

Fichardt did exactly that - he followed up his Africa Open victory with a runner-up finish at the Tshwane Open a month later. And what's encouraging about those two performances is that he recorded scores of -16 and -19, proving that when low scores are possible and putting becomes essential, then this talented South African is your man.

True, Fichardt has had some missed cuts recently, but as soon as he was back at an 'easy' venue where low scores were possible, he shot -14 to finish in a tie for seventh just a few weeks ago at a high class BMW International Open.

All this alone makes the South African's price too big, but consider also that many good judges believe that putting will be crucial this week, then the fact that Fichardt currently ranks 1st for Putts per Round on the Tour, 1st for Putts per GIR, and 15th for One Putts, then I remain staggered that this man is considered a rank outsider to win this week.

In 2011, seven of the first nine ranked in the top 15 for the week in Putts per GIR, and last year, three of the first four home ranked in the top six for the same stat. In summary, if you find the greens this week, then putting becomes essential.

Sound like a 200/1 shot to you? No, me neither.

Garth Mulroy - 126.0n/a

I can add further strength to my Fichardt argument by saying that I'm more than happy to back Mulroy this week at 126.0n/a and yet he's shown very little form in recent months. In fact Mulroy finished behind my main selection at both the Africa Open and Tshwane Open and has shown no form whatsoever since.

But Mulroy does rank very high - albeit behind Fichardt - in the putting stats and I'm finding it hard to ignore him from an each-way perspective at decent odds.

Alex Noren - 36.035/1

I'd rate Noren my main fancy amongst the 'shorter' price selections simply because I rate the Swede as a player who knows how to go low when scoring is at its easiest - his performances at the Nordea Masters, a course that plays very easy in benign conditions, is testament to this belief.

Noren recorded back to back top-four finishes - encouragingly, on courses that provided plenty of birdies - prior to missing the cut at the ultra-tough Open de France last week. It's easy to forgive him last week's relatively poor showing given that the course difficulty might not have suited, and I'd expect a much bolder showing now that he's back on a 'birdie buffet' course.

Noren can be a great ball striker when on song, and the fact that he ranks 9th for Putts per GIR and 10th for Putts per Round has to be a plus. If you do believe course form is relevant, then you'll be encouraged that Noren finished third here last year.

Francesco Molinari - 36.035/1

One place ahead of Noren 12 months ago was Molinari who lost out in a play-off to Jeev Milkha Singh, and he has the short game to contend again this week.

True, if putting is to win the day at Castle Stuart then Molinari probably won't be up there, but this popular Italian can be a genius with his short irons so the hope is that he'll be playing a lot of his approach shots from short distance, short enough to be able to knock it so close that his putting doesn't become an issue.

I'm not saying Molinari is a bad putter, far from it, but he does miss a few short ones from time-to-time and that could be the difference between winning and losing this week. He's in decent form however, and I think he'll be up there come Sunday afternoon.

Ross Fisher - 51.0n/a

I sense Fisher is extremely close to winning again. Right now there's always one round - in Europe at least - that stops him from having a very good week; a final round 74 sent him down the field last week, an opening 73 was his worst round at the Irish Open, and he failed to break par in at least one round in the three tournaments that immediately preceded the BMW International Open.

But his game generally looks in good order, he's making cuts with regularity on the European Tour, and although he isn't performing as well on the PGA Tour, he did record a top-10 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship not long ago.

Fisher definitely knows how to go low when he's on song, and if he stays in Europe once the Majors are out of the way I fancy he'll be appearing a lot on leaderboards. Fingers crossed he'll be appearing very high on the Scottish Open one this week.

Recommended Bets

Back Darren Fichardt each-way @ 201.0n/a
Back Garth Mulroy each-way @ 126.0n/a
Back Alex Noren @ 36.035/1
Back Francesco Molinari @ 36.035/1
Back Ross Fisher @ 51.0n/a

*Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission

Can England win third straight series on home soil?

By Michael Gales Jul 8, 2013

2013 Ashes cricket betting sees England host Australia in the best of five Series. The hosts are the heavy favourites ahead of the first Test, can they retain the Ashes or will the Aussies cause an upset?

England heavy favourites

With a home advantage and in reasonable form, the odds (1.375* to win the series & 1.901* to win the first Test) suggest that England are firm favourites to take control ahead of the series.

A strong bowling attack coupled with an accomplished top-order batting line-up who all average above 42 runs per innings, the oddsmakers at Pinnacle Sports are not looking past England before the first test.

England have won three of the last four Ashes Series, and in those three wins, the Australians have managed to post one win in each. A win again will ensure the Ashes win count is all-tied at 31 series apiece.

Home advantage has benefitted England in recent years, and throughout history they have won 16 to Australia’s 14 of the 33 series on English soil.

Australian problems reflected in odds

Australia’s Ashes preparation on and off the field has been nothing short off disastrous. Just 16 days before the first Test (AUS 3.760*), Australia sacked coach Mickey Arthur.

In the build-up to the Ashes the Aussies have been beaten 4-0 by India, lost their Champions Trophy without winning a game, and had five players suspended for off-field indiscretions.

Subsequently South African Arthur was sacked after two years in charge and was replaced by Darren Lehmann. Lehmann comes with experience of playing in England and will know the conditions well, something which Australia have struggled with in recent tours.

Australia had won 10 of 15 Tests but fell to 10 from 19 in India as confidence disappeared and the squad fractured into factions.

In their warm up games Australia beat Somerset by six wickets and drew with Worcestershire.

Australia opened on the 27th June as 5.150 underdogs to win a series in England for the first time since 2001. After drifting further at 5.190, they have returned to 5.140* ahead of the first Test match.

How key is the return of Kevin Pietersen?

Kevin Pietersen has been out of the England team since March but will make his long-awaited return in the first Test at Trent Bridge. The question is, how key is his return?

Now fully integrated back into the England team after the ‘text-gate’ scandal, KP will look to reestablish himself as England’s premier batsman.

The statistics show how key Pietersen’s return is for England. Personal issues aside, England are a stronger team with KP, and therefore more likely to win the Ashes.

England have won 45% of Test matches with KP in the team since 2008. The talisman missed seven Test matches during this period, which saw England’s win percentage drop by 2%.

Pietersen returned to action for Surrey against Yorkshire and looked in fantastic form as he scored a century. And it is run scoring which highlights KP’s influence on England. They average 114 more runs in their first-innings (387), and have a run rate of 3.34 compared to 3.17 when he isn’t playing.

In the Ashes with KP in the team England have won just 38%, however eliminate the disastrous 5-0 whitewash in 2006/2007 and the average rises to 50%, while their average first innings total is 380 at 3.43 runs per over.

Understanding the venue is so important

The venue is a key factor in any cricket match. Players and teams perform better at certain grounds than others, so understanding how the wicket has performed historically is vital for any cricket bettor.

For instance, as mentioned above, England are heavily favoured for both the Test Series and the first Test match starting on July 10th, however instead of picking a venue which will give them the best possible chance of starting with a win, they have opted for the 1st Test to be played at Trent Bridge – which is their least successful venue.

The Nottingham venue has historically favoured bowlers on pitches that deteriorate the longer the game lasts.

Both bowling attacks are closely matched in the pace department and given there is no other venue in England where the hosts have a worse win-loss ratio, the first Test could be hinged on the toss – the team batting first has won six of the last nine Tests played at Trent Bridge.

The second and third Test’s see the teams play at Lords and Old Trafford – England’s most successful home ground – respectively before heading to the Riverside and the Oval to decide the Ashes.

England are big favourites to retain the Ashes, and the odds suggest they will do that, however this is Ashes cricket. So don’t expect the Aussies to roll over without a fight.

If you’re new to cricket betting click here to learn the basics.

Click here to see the latest England vs. Australia Ashes odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

*Odds subject to change

BetFair	BetFair online BetFair site
Pinnacle	Pinnacle Sports site
BWIN	Bwin site
Unibet	Unibet site

понедельник, 29 июля 2013 г.

понедельник, 22 июля 2013 г.

четверг, 18 июля 2013 г.

понедельник, 15 июля 2013 г.

пятница, 12 июля 2013 г.

четверг, 11 июля 2013 г.

среда, 10 июля 2013 г.

понедельник, 29 июля 2013 г.

понедельник, 22 июля 2013 г.

четверг, 18 июля 2013 г.

понедельник, 15 июля 2013 г.

пятница, 12 июля 2013 г.

четверг, 11 июля 2013 г.

среда, 10 июля 2013 г.