Simon Rowlands has been busy taking sectional times
Simon Rowlands has analysed the sectional times from Kempton on Wednesday...
The purpose of this series of debriefs is to educate and not just to tip winners. Which is a good job, as recently identified winners have included a couple (Foxhaven and Hamza) who were anticipated to lose when first put forward.
It is a reminder that, however good the information, you still need to interpret it correctly and are a hostage to fortune if trying to predict events some way in the future. For instance, Hamza would not have been recommended as one to oppose if it had been known he would end up in a Beverley minor event in which (sectionals confirm) he got a fairly soft lead.
This week's sectional analysis from Kempton turned up few individual performances of note, but it does add considerable substance to subjective impressions of how the races unfolded, as the headline figures convey.
Most eye-catching of all is the contrast between the two races at longer distances. The race won by Expert Fighter was run at a crawl and resulted in the fastest finish of the evening, while the one won by Attraction Ticket was run at an overly strong pace and resulted in a slow-motion finish. In both cases, the overall time suffered markedly.
Spifer shaped best in the former contest, and deserves to be rated the winner by approximately 4 lbs, but such a questionable affair will not necessarily translate elsewhere, so the horse does not make the "to follow" list, for all that he deserves to be respected. Now What came out joint-best on sectionals in the latter contest, having suffered from being up with the pace, and does get added, though may be one to support in the place market, more than the win market, unless dropping to a mark in the 50s.
Flying Bear (third in the opener on his debut), Duke of Destiny (second to Shahrazad) and Princess Noor all shaped better than the result to varying degrees, but the overall times they recorded were some way from impressive enough to put them up with confidence for next time.
Desert Strike's overall time was decent, and gets upgraded through sectionals, but it is doubtful whether he will represent a good bet next time on the back of a success and a presumed rise in his mark. Keep an eye, however, on the contest won by Prophets Pride, who just got up against a couple ridden slightly closer to the steady pace than he was. Fourth-placed Living Desert also did well against the pace bias and has the option of returning to maidens.
One upside of a quiet period for sectionals is that it gave an opportunity to take an overview of the results from April and May at Kempton (the track at which individual sectionals are being taken as a matter of course), including how efficiently individual jockeys tend to ride the course. A similar survey about 10 years ago at Lingfield had Simon Whitworth riding closest to par, while a more wide-ranging one about 5 years ago had Jim Crowley top.
More data is needed before publishing anything definitive, but Martin Harley comes out top of jockeys with a reasonable number of mounts by a measure involving first-5 finishers, while Kieren Fallon comes out best using data from all finishers.
To follow: Now What
To oppose: none
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