Ryan Moore: Wide open Derby if Dawn Approach fails to stay

Ryan Moore is happy to be on Ruler Of The World

Betfair Ambassador Ryan Moore talks exclusively about his Epsom Derby mount Ruler Of The World as well as his thoughts on the other runners, including hot favourite Dawn Approach...

You don't need me to tell you that this race revolves around one horse and his stamina, and I don't think anyone knows whether Dawn Approach will stay or not. I certainly don't.

It has definite echoes of Sea The Stars four years ago, who also came to the Derby straight from winning the Guineas.

But whereas Sea The Stars went into that race with a stamina question mark largely based on his sire Cape Cross, Dawn Approach's worry is on his dam side.

On pedigree, you would have to think that Sea The Stars went into the Derby as the more definite stayer, being out of an Arc winner in Urban Sea and a half-brother to Galileo, as well as other thorough stayers. But the doubts about the favourite today centre on the distaff side of his pedigree. And for me they are sufficient to believe that he is beatable.

Certainly, I wouldn't be backing him at around the even money mark, especially with the rain we have had this week.

Of course, he is much the best horse going into the race - he is as far clear on ratings as you could wish for in a Derby favourite - and his temperament and style of racing will give him every chance of lasting home effectively. If he does, he wins, simple as that.

But you just can't overstate how much of an ask it is going up from 1m to 1m4f. I think people can be a bit blas about it. Just take a minute to go back and watch a recording of a previous Derby, stop it at after a mile, and see how much of the race is still to run. It's no gimme, is it?

Now, I have never ridden a horse in a Guineas that has gone directly to Epsom, but it is clearly a big ask. And probably not one that is reflected in his current odds.

One thing is for sure. If he doesn't stay, then about eight in here will be fancying their chances. I am well aware that Aidan doesn't have the best winning record when he saddles as many runners as he does this year, but I wouldn't be in a rush to discount his runners on that basis.

He ran six in Sea The Stars' Derby - don't mention that I finished last of his runners on Black Bear Island - and if the winner hadn't turned out to be one of the modern day superstars, Aidan would have saddled the first four home.

Everyone will assume that, with five in the race, Aidan is going to try and get the favourite beat. And no doubt he has a best-case scenario for his horses in his mind.

But I have always been of the opinion that if you try and get one horse beat, and ride accordingly, then it more often than not backfires. Yes, Dawn Approach will have a target on his back at Epsom but in the end I think that his destiny is in Kevin's hands, not other jockeys.

I am very happy to be riding Ruler Of The World, who bizarrely is the only horse in the line-up to have won over the Derby trip. He beat nothing in the Chester Vase but I was quite taken by him there, as he was babyish and the penny only really dropped with him in the final furlong or so.

I think he is a pretty solid. He felt like a Derby/St Leger horse at Chester and I would like to think that he is at least on a par with the likes of Astrology, Treasure Beach and At First Sight, who finished placed in this race for Aidan in recent years.

But you never know what you are going to get with these unexposed 3yos until they face the test of Epsom. There is a lot of nonsense talked about horses handling this course. Nine times out of ten if you have the class and are able to travel, then you can handle any track and conditions.

Usain Bolt is about 6ft6in and a big unit, and he can run round a bend quite quickly, can't he?

Battle Of Marengo didn't impress everyone in the Derrinstown last time, and I admit that he did look a bit idle in winning there. But I am sure Aidan will have worked on his sharpness at home since and this is a guaranteed stayer with a level of form probably only second to the favourite.

I also give Mars an each way shot, too. He has been very much the forgotten horse of Aidan's leading into this race but he ran a decent race in the Guineas. He clearly needs to step up a lot on that form to get competitive, but I suspect that the step up in trip will go some way towards him achieving that.

If Ocovango wasn't trained by Andre Fabre and coming down the Pour Moi route, he would probably be twice the price he is. Because, to my eye, he certainly wasn't overly-impressive in the Greffulhe. But it's the old age debate isn't it? He probably deserves to be half the price he should because of Andre.

If you listen to reports coming out of Germany, then Chopin is their latest wonder horse. But there is some substance to the hype as the horse he beat by eight lengths last time finished second in the German 2,000 Guineas last week.

But, in truth, it's a guessing game with him, and he is another for whom the trip is an unknown.

The trip shouldn't be a problem for Libertarian but it didn't look a good Dante and you have to worry whether he will have the tactical speed to lie up and not get detached here. He looked more of a St Leger type to me at York, and it could be that Saddler's Rock's half-brother Galileo Rock has that Classic on his agenda in the future, too.

I rode the runner-up and it wasn't a great race that he finished third in at Sandown - not a great race, in the context of a Derby anyway - but he is exactly the sort of grinder who could come into the equation if the favourite doesn't stay effectively. And we will only know that on Saturday afternoon.