Champions Trophy Betting: Chart toppers number crunched by AB, Amla and Watson

Watson is under the radar in terms of number of runs scored

Ed Hawkins analyses the top runscorer betting and highlights the importance of looking beyond the top runscorer lists...

Statistics can reveal as much as they hide and a peek at the highest runscorers in one-day internationals in the past 12 months is not the comfort rug it appears to be for those searching for a winner for the top bat in the Champions Trophy.

Two of the top three are English, which may not have happened before, but before the patriotic mist descends and you start piling on the currency, just look a little closer.

Ian Bell, who has settled into an opening berth nicely, has 958 runs from 21 matches and has outscored everyone, beating Tillakaratne Dilshan into second. Alastair Cook, in third position, has 739, also from 21 outings. It is the number of matches which causes the confusion. In the top 50 only Angelo Mathews, the Sri Lanka all-rounder, has played more.

It is the bane of the punter that more importance is not placed on the number of runs per innings instead of the cumulative. Indeed, the traditional 'average' is not much help here, either because not outs, of course, are discounted.

If we were going purely on the number of runs scored per innings in the past 12 months (qualification 10 innings), then the top echelon of runscorers looks different.

AB De Villiers, the South African captain who is expected to bat at No 4, is the most reliable batsman each time he goes to the wicket. Using the top 15 batsmen in the past 12 months in terms of traditional average as our guide, he jumps a place to No 1 purely on runs per innings. At 54.4 runs each time he goes to the crease your money looks pretty safe.

If you had looked at only the amount of runs scored, De Villiers would probably not have entered your thinking as he is a lowly ninth. That is some gulf. Another big mover is Hashim Amla, who jumps two spots from the 'average' lists and seven from the runs chart.

Our value search could well start and end with these two. De Villiers looks a whopper at 23.022/1 while Amla is fully deserving of favourite status at 11.5n/a. He has the perfect technique to do well in English conditions and will get most opportunity for runs because he opens the batting.

With 45.6 runs per innings Bell might just be considered value. From the confines of the top 15 he is up two places to sixth while team-mate Jonathan Trott should not be overlooked, either. He is third on the runs per innings chart. They are 21.020/1 and 24.023/1 respectively.

Big losers are Dilshan and Cook, who expose the problem with blindly placing faith in weight of runs. Cook doesn't even make the top 15 when it comes down to purely averages while Dilshan's runs per innings mark of 39.9 does not impress.

Nothing is foolproof, however. Thanks to our top 15 rule and qualification of 10 innings or more only eliminator (checking each international's runs per innings total would have been impossible), some players will slip through the net.

None more so than Shane Watson. Watson has only batted six times in the last 12 months. But each time he went to the crease he tallied 50.6 runs. Superb. And with him biffing a ton in a warm-up the other day, he warrants selection at 13.5n/a.

Recommended bets

S Watson top runscorer at 13.5n/a
H Amla top runscorer at 11.5n/a
AB De Villiers top runscorer at 23.022/1

Top batsmen in last 12 months runs per innings: AB De Villiers (+1) 54.4, Amla 52 (+2), Trott 49.2 (-2), Taylor 48.7 (+8), Sangakkara 46.1 (+4), Bell 45.6 (+2), Raina 45.5 (-4), Jamshed 41.1 (+6), Dhoni 40.5 (-3), Dilshan 39.9 (-5), Bailey 39.4 (+1), Guptill 38.1 (-5), Hossain 35.2 (-3), Dwayne Bravo 34.9 (+1), Azahar Ali 31.9 (-2).

Figure in brackets denotes place change from traditional 'average' lists to runs per innings. Qualification 10 innings.